New Alternate Jersey to be Unveiled Today

At 12:00PM, in less than two hours, the Phillies will be unveiling their new home alternate Jersey, the first alternate jersey they have had in a long time (if ever). New jerseys can bring more money, through merchandise sales, and many teams have played well in new jerseys. creating alternate jerseys is essentially an art in it's own respect, and many different styles have been used...

Many just change the color of another jersey...

New York Mets

Houston Astros

...but some choose to create a new alternate team logo, sometimes more colorful and creative than the official team logo...

Minnesota Wild

Nashville Predators

Boston Bruins

Edmonton Oilers (This one has many hidden features, such as the five heads of the gear representing the five Stanley Cups the team has won)

New York Rangers


...while some bring back old-school logos...

Buffalo Sabres

Toronto Maple Leafs

...or sometimes teams might stick with an all out throwback look...

Philadelphia Eagles (feel free to puke)



Washington Capitals

Jimmy Rollins Wins MVP!!!

Totally deserving here. Rollins this year, as Howard did in 2006, proves that the Phillies have a strong core of truly valuable players that could lead them to a championship in 2008. Holliday almost had the triple crown (Prince Fielder being the spoiler in the Home Run category), but Rollins was more... well... valuable. Extra base hits, the stolen bases, hits, home runs- Rollins had the works. Notice how the Phillies also had three guys in the top 10, the only team to have multiple guys there.

The voting:
Jimmy Rollins- 353 Votes (16 1st Place Votes)
Matt Holliday- 336 (11)
Prince Fielder- 284 (5)
David Wright- 182
Ryan Howard- 112
Chipper Jones- 107
Jake Peavy-97
Chase Utley-89
Albert Pujols- 50
Hanley Ramirez- 49
...
Aaron Rowand- 3

Phillies Fall Just Short of Signing Mike Lowell

After denying interest in signing any big name third-basemen, the Phillies reportedly made a 4-year, $50 Million dollar offer to Lowell, who wanted a four year deal, while the Red Sox had only offered him 3 years, $36 Million. However, after the Red Sox upped their offer to $37.5 Million, Lowell signed with the Sox.

I am suprised the Phillies went for a third baseman, or any position player, or a 4-year offer to any free agent, but Pat Gillick has been unpredictable. So close, yet so far- but this does bring around the possibility again of signing Aaron Rowand

Off-Season Schedule

Can't Wait for the 2008 Season? Here's a rundown of the important dates for this off-season and the beginning of the 2008 Season...


Nov. 20, 2007: National League MVP Announced
Nov. 20, 2007: Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues
Nov. 28, 2007: Phillies Unveil new Home Alternate Jersey!

Dec. 1, 2007: Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation
Dec. 3-6, 2007: Winter Meetings, Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 6, 2007: Major League Rule 5 Draft
Dec. 7, 2007: Player deadline to accept salary arbitration
Dec. 12, 2007: Last date to tender contracts
Feb. 14, 2008: Spring Training Begins- first workout for pitchers & catchers
Feb. 19, 2008: First workout for infielders and outfielders
Feb. 26, 2008: Exhibition game vs. Florida State University
Feb. 27, 2008: Phillies' First Spring-Training game, at home against the Reds
Mar 25-26, 2008: Two Game MLB season opener in Japan, Red Sox vs. Athletics
Mar. 28-29, 2008: Phillies 2-Game Preseason Series, at home against the Blue Jays
Mar. 31, 2008: Phillies' Opening Day, at home against the Nationals

Philly Sports' Curse Reversed?

If you were to mention the Phillies to anyone in Philadelphia, you would probably hear a tirade about how disappointing the Phillies were in the Playoffs. True, they didn't win a championship or a game. However, the Phillies did manage to do one thing: Put a major crack in the "Curse of Billy Penn" that has haunted Philadelphia sports since the construction of One Liberty Place over the statue of William Penn above city hall. And they did it "a la bambino"...

It was the night of August 30th, and the Mets were playing the Phillies, who were hoping for an unthinkable four-game sweep of the Mets. It was the bottom of the 9th inning, the Phillies down 10-9 after a disastrous 8th Inning. Billy Wagner, the overpowering, former Phillies' closer who left for more money was pitching. After a single, Jayson Werth, armed with scouting reports from his teammates on Wagner, stole two bases consecutively, ending up at third. With one out, Tadihito Iguchi slapped a single to score Werth. Iguchi then stole second himself, setting up an intentional walk to Jimmy Rollins and then Chase Utley came to the plate...

This unthinkable four-game sweep of the best team in the National League was a segway into an incredible September. The Phillies won their last eight games against the Mets, and proved all their critics wrong by winning the divison. Many would consider this was just dumb luck, as the Mets collapsed on their own. This is just plain incorrect.

The Phillies were instrumental in the Mets downfall. They hit the Mets hard on their first punch (the four-game August Sweep) setting themselves up to knock the Mets out on the second blow (September three-game sweep). Need proof?

• Mets Before Four-Game Sweep: 73-59
• Mets between four- and three-game sweeps: 10-3
• Mets after three-game sweep: 5-12

The Phillies' August 30th victory was a far cry from a season-changing game, but the Red Sox broke their curse in a similar way. In game 4 of the ALCS, with their backs against the wall in the series, Dave Roberts' "Steal Heard Round the World"- when he stole a base by inches off Mariano Rivera after 3 near-pickoffs- put him in scoring position, setting up a Red Sox walk-off win. Despite the three unlikely wins they needed to get to win that series, and the fact that it wasn't even the world series, Roberts' steal is what many considered to be the event that broke the "Curse of the Bambino".

The Phillies may not have won a championship, and thus haven't completely broken Philly's curse, but there are undeniable similarities to the Red Sox in 2004. Besides, winning your division in baseball (especially if you would have won it if the pre-1995 divisions were in place) is much bigger than doing so in any other sport.

Finally, a reiteration from yesterday's entry: If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

If you still need proof to subdue your doubts, consider the injuries the Phillies had to deal with this season...

• Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
• Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
• Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
• Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
• Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
• Freddy Garcia: 6/8-Present
• John Lieber: 6/20-Present
• Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
• Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
• Ryan Madson: 7/29-Present

Still think Philadelphia Sports are reeling from the "Curse of Billy Penn"? To tell you the truth, you wouldn't be a true Philadelphia sports fan if you ever did.

Could an Injury Cripple the Phillies in 2008?

Here's the injury scenarios for position players:

• Ryan Howard: Greg Dobbs would likely become the everyday 1st Baseman, leaving Wes Helms to play Third Base. Helms and Pete LaForest can also play 1st Base.
• Chase Utley: Eric Bruntlett would become the everyday 2nd Baseman.
• Jimmy Rollins: Bruntlett would become the everyday Shortstop.
• Wes Helms: Greg Dobbs would become the sole starting Third Baseman.
• Greg Dobbs: Helms would play Third, but since Dobbs can play a lot of positions, the Phillies would have a bit of a depth problem if another starter went down.
• Pat Burrell: Jayson Werth moves to left, Shane Victorino to Center, and Chris Roberson plays right. It should be noted that Greg Dobbs can play Left Field.
• Shane Victorino: Jayson Werth plays center, Roberson plays right, and Burrell plays left.
• Jayson Werth: Roberson would become the everyday Right Fielder. Dobbs is also availalble.
• Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, or Pete LaForest: If one of these guys go down, there are two of them left. However, if Ruiz went down for an extended period of time, the Phillies might search for a better catcher to be the everyday starter.
• Chris Roberson or Eric Bruntlett: Both these guys are currently the only backups at two vital positions (LF/RF for Roberson, 2nd/SS for Bruntlett). Multiple backups may be needed to replace either of these guys, which could hurt the roster. It's anyone's guess who that would be. One possibility for outfield is T.J. Bohn, who was on the 40-man roster in 2007 but never played for the Phillies.
  

Now for the key pitchers. It should be noted that since the pitching rotation is unclear beyond Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, and probably Brett Myers, I am going to assume that a fifth starter will come around, be it most likely a Free Agent, or maybe Adam Eaton, J.D. Durbin, or a Prospect. I am going to call them "Pitcher X".

• Cole Hamels: The unusual amount of pitching injuries and other big changes last year required major changes in the rotation. The only pitcher that would be alarming (in my mind) to lose is Cole Hamels. If he goes down for an extended period of time, the Phillies may try to trade for a pitcher (like they did with Lohse last year), or they might use Adam Eaton (if he hasn't been traded), J.D. Durbin, or a minor-league prospect (they got lucky last year in this exact situation with Kendrick. Some possible prospects are Josh Outman, J.A. Happ, John Ennis.
• Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, or "Pitcher X": The same goes here as for Hamels, except it's less likely the Phillies will go outside the organization for a replacement.
• Tom Gordon or J.C. Romero: While we aren't sure what the 2008 bullpen will look like, we can assume the loss of either of these guys would be pretty substantial. No special changes would really need to be made, but the Phillies may try to obtain an additional reliever from outside the organization. If the Phillies find themselves with six really able-bodied starters, Brett Myers may move back to the pen- but this could happen even if an injury didn't occur.
• Brad Lidge: Romero and/or Gordon would probably take on the closing role, and the same thing may happen here with Myers as mentioned above.
  

Now, there's always the possibility of a doomsday scenario, where multiple (2, 3 or even more!)players go down, but that hasn't happened since 2007- Oh wait, that was last year, wasn't it? Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley- all of them vital (or at least expected to be vital) players on the team- went down for a while.

The losses of just a couple of these players would have been disasterous, let alone all eight of them over the course of the season, let alone for a team that's season was down the drain, let alone for the Phillies, and yet somehow a bunch of virtual nobodies- Geoff Geary, Kyle Kendrick, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, Jayson Werth- came on and did a spectacular job, leaving the virtually injury-free (who's that Freddy Garcia Guy?) Phillies poised to make a September run, one that ended up pulling them to the playoffs.

Final Analysis: The only thing to be worried about is making sure that our bullpen doesn't look like it's reeling from injuries when there actually aren't any injuries, which is the case right now. The Phillies' proved in 2007 that their organization has depth far beyond the 25-man roster they started with.

If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Liber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

Some News & Updates

• Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox is the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year, winning in a landslide with 132 points, besting Damon Young (Devil Rays) who had 56. Daisuke Matsuzaka only got 12 points putting him in fourth.
  
• Ryan Braun won an extremely close race in the NL Rookie of the Year race with 128 points over Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies who had 126 votes. Coming in a very distant third is Hunter Pence (Astros) who had 15. The Phillies' own Kyle Kendrick came in fifth with 7 votes. Considering where the Phillies would be without his stellar performance coming out of AA, I'm suprised Kendrick did this poorly- although he was the only candidate other than Braun and Tulowitzki to get a second-place vote.
• The Devil Rays unveiled their new logo and "new" team name. Now the name "Rays" refers to rays of sunlight and not marine animals. Their new logo looks like it's that of a Single-A team. How fitting...
• As of today, Free Agents can negotiate with any team.
• The AL Cy Young will be announced today. Josh Beckett, Chien-Ming Wang, and C.C. Sabathia are the front-runners. Beckett will almost certainly win.
• Jorge Posada is reportedly being signed by the Yankees to a 4 Year, $52 Million contract.

Projected 2008 Roster, 2nd Edition

SP Cole Hamels
SP Hideki Kuroda*
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
RP Tom Gordon
RP J.C. Romero
RP Ryan Madson
RP J.D. Durbin
RP Adam Eaton
RP Jeremy Affeldt*
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
SS Eric Bruntlett
LF Pat Burrell
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF Chris Roberson
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
C Pete LaForest

Notes:

• In case you didn't know, J.C. Romero has been signed to a 3 year, $12 Million dollar contract with a $4.75 Million dollar option.
• Jeremy Affeldt is a placeholder- if he’s not there, I’m guessing another free-agent pitcher will be.
• Expect Chris Roberson and/or Pete LaForest to be the first to go in the likely event that the Phillies acquire somebody in a trade, add a prospect to the roster, add another pitcher, or add a more versatile utility player, etc. Roberson will not go unless an outfielder comes along- LaForest is more expendable.
• Adam Eaton and/or J.D. Durbin will be the first pitchers to go (likely after LaForest or Roberson if a pitching prospect or free-agent pitcher gets added to the roster.
• Adam Eaton is by far the most likely out of all these guys to get traded. Otherwise he may start but will more likely be sent to AAA or work out of the pen.
• Hideki Kuroda is a placeholder of sorts, as I think one out of many different free-agent starting pitchers could be signed for the rotation.
• In the likely event that one of the starters collapses, a prospect may find their way into the rotation, just like Kyle Kendrick did in 2007.
• Brett Myers could still possibly remain in the bullpen if two starters are added to the roster, or if he bombs like he did in the beginning of 2007.
• Players I don’t expect to see on this roster (less that 50% chance): Jeremy Affeldt, Hideki Koroda, and Pete LaForest.

Summary of Expected Off-Season Moves:

• Acquire one (or two) relief pitchers
• Acquire one (or two) starting pitcher
• Note: two starters and a reliever could be acquired, allowing Brett Myers to stay in the bullpen

Phillies Off-Season Preview: Position Players

It's safe to say that the Phillies lineup is going to be fine without any additions or re-signings this off-season. Barring any trades or any other unforeseen events, here is what the Phillies lineup would look like in 2008 if the Phillies did not sign or re-sign anybody this off-season (not shown in batting order)


1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms
C- Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Jayson Werth
RF- Shane Victorino

Bench:

Greg Dobbs (3B/1B/LF/RF) or Wes Helms (3B/1B)
Chris Roberson (LF/RF)
Pete LaForest (C/1B)
Chris Coste (C) or Carlos Ruiz (C)
Eric Bruntlett (2B/SS)

This lineup would certainly suffice. With Aaron Rowand gone there won't be as much depth and in this lineup and it's certainly less potent than last season , but given the improvements that should be made to pitching staff I'm not too worried. More importantly, Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse, and the loss of his influence might be a big problem for this young lineup. I also worry that as always with the Phillies, this lineup will be inconsistent and not able to perform game-after-game at the level needed to really be considered a championship contender.

Third Base has been considered a weak spot, as the offensive production from third base was nothing short of abysmal last season. However, Pat Gillick was quoted in the Daily News as saying he doesn't think anything but pitching will be addressed in the off-season...

"I don't know that [third base] is going to be addressed," Pat Gillick said as the annual general manager meetings got under way yesterday at the posh Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "We'll go with [Wes] Helms and [Greg] Dobbs. Because we're going to concentrate on pitching. If we go in any direction, we're going to concentrate on pitching... If we make a deal, it will be for pitching," the general manager said. "If we spend money, we'll spend it on pitching... If you improve your pitching, you don't have to have as much offense... You don't have to score as many runs if you don't let as many in."

This pretty much rules out the possible acquisition of any off-season improvements to the lineup. I agree fully with Gillick; this offense should be fine, despite the loss of Rowand. However, I wonder if the Phillies would have enough playoff experience as a team last year to be able to perform under playoff pressure in 2008, now having lost 2005 World Series Champions Tadihito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Freddy Garcia. Many of the seasoned veterans who were on the 2007 Phillies are now free-agents. This worries me a bit, but hopefully this issue can be adressed when Pat Gillick goes shopping for pitchers this off-season.

Huge Deal to Start the Off-Season

The Phillies traded RP Geoff Geary, OF Michael Bourn, and minor league 3rd Baseman Mike Costanzo to the Astros for RP/CP Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett.

I will be frank, my reaction to this trade is not that good- it's a bit of a risky one. Geary had a great end to the 2007 season (although otherwise was quite below par), and Bourn likely has a great future ahead of him. Lidge only converted on 19/27 save opportunities, posting 3.36 ERA, although his pitching improved near the end of the season. I really hope the Phillies saw something in Lidge that I'm missing, because 19/27 save attempts is maybe not what I'd look for in a closer specifically. That being said, he could also be a set-up man to Myers if the Phillies so wish. However, according to MLB.com, Lidge will be the closer for the Phillies.

I would have probably shopped a bit more before making this trade. I know I said the Phillies shouldn't automatically make Myers their closer, but replacing him this fast seems a bit extreme on the other end of the spectrum. I think, though, that the Phillies haven't set Lidge being the closer in stone yet either- he could end up working out of the pen with Myers staying as the closer. If we're lucky here, Lidge may put up stats like he was a few years ago. Or, he could continue to have a bad save percentage, and put up an ERA of over 4.

With this trade the outfield has lost depth, but the infield has gained some.

Now, the Starting Rotation is looking like this:
Hamels, Myers, ???, Kendrick, Moyer

??? Could be anyone from Mark Prior to Matt Clement to Hideki Kuroda.


Next Move: Re-Sign J.C. Romero, go after a free-agent starter, and go after another free-agent reliever

Phillies Interested in Hideki Kuroda

Daily News Article: http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20071107_Phillies_looking_at_Japanese_pitching_star.html

"We'll just keep looking," Pat Gillick said during the second day at the annual general manager meetings at the palatial Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "There's nothing we could do about it during this period [when Boston held exclusive negotiating rights]. If he had gotten out there, it might have been a different story."

This would be a wise move for the Phillies, given the success of many Japanese players in the

My Question Featured on Phillies' Mailbag

Who do you see as the closer in 2008?-- Ben L., Cheltenham, Pa.
Unless the Phillies acquire Francisco Cordero or someone of that ilk, I'll stick with Brett Myers. The right-hander prefers closing, and the team has said publicly that they are planning to use Myers in that role.


http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292283&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi


Seems like Mandel's in agreement with me.

2 Gold Gloves!

Congratulations to Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand on their 2007 Gold Glove Awards!

So Much for Schilling

From MLB.Com:

Curt Schilling and the Red Sox appear ready to announce a one-year deal with incentives to return him to Boston for one final season. ESPN.com reported on Tuesday that Schilling and the team have reached agreement on an $8 million base salary with an additional $2 million in incentives. The deal is pending a physical on the right-hander, who will turn 41 on Nov. 14.

After Writing farewell letters to his teammates just one week ago, it appears Curt Schilling has had a change of heart, and will in all likelihood will be returning to the Red Sox in 2008. This is tough news, as Schilling's experience would have been a huge boost to the Phillies.

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.


4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.


The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia


Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”


There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.


Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.


Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.




My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect

Saying Goodbye to Freddy Garcia

Remember Freddy Garcia? His removal from the pitching rotation back in June was a symbolic restarting point for the Phillies. Yet somehow, the impossibility of the Phillies turning a disaster around and making the playoffs happened. Thanks to Kyle Kendrick and Company, Freddy Garcia is not a scapegoat (as many would have expected), but instead a forgotten memory.

Yet he isn't worthless. He isn't another big-name player turned bad in Philadelphia. themselves. Garcia was plagued by shoulder soreness this season even before he left the rotation. His stuff was not what we had hoped because of it. Pat Gillick was smart enough to sign him only for a year in case something like this happened. Despite the pros of not having to pay him $8-10 million to play 2008, Freddy Garcia may be back with his old stuff next season. 2007 was a bad, injury plagued year for him. We've moved on, and he has too...

I'm just glad I can say "Happy trails" to him than "!%($ You, Freddy!" (something I'm sure you Eagles fans have already had to say once...)

The Closer in '08: Brett Myers?

Constantly the Phillies have said that Myers will be the closer in 2008, but this happening has never been taken as any sort of near certainty. We all know that there are plenty of Free Agent closers out there, and that there is also a need for Myers in the starting rotation. The fact is, we don’t know where Myers will be at his strongest. He could remain the closer, and the Phillies could spend their money elsewhere. Myers may even evolve into one of the best closers in baseball if we’re lucky. We could also move him back to the rotation and sign a new closer. Or, he could become a middle or long reliever.

His stats don’t give us that good of an idea of where he’s strongest:

• In Brett Myers' career as a starter (2002-2006, 1st 3 games of 2007), he has put up these stats: 143 Games, 54-41, 868.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 306 BB, 708 SO, .329 OBP
• In 2006 specifically, Myers put up these stats: 31 Games, 12-7, 198.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 189 SO, OBA .257
• Myers began the 2007 season 0-2, allowing 16 runs in 15.1 innings of work over 3 starts.
• On April 18th, due to Myers’ struggles, he was moved to the bullpen. He made his first start as a Middle Reliever/Set-Up Man. Over his 8 games (between 4/18 and 5/1) in this role, he put up impressive stats:
  0-0, 8.1 IP, 1 Run, 13 SO, 3 BB, OBA .324
• On May 3rd, with closer Tom Gordon injured, Myers took over the closer role. He was out of the lineup
  due to injury from 5/23-7/28. He did okay (especially for a new closer) before the injury. After the injury shared he sometimes shared the closing role with Tom Gordon, and he had some rough games in his first couple weeks back, but settled down after that. Along with the rest of the team, he played well down the stretch. From May 3rd until the end of the regular season, Myers put up these stats: 5-5, 40 Games, 21/24 Saves, 45.0 IP, 16 Runs, 14 BB, 51 SO, 3.20 ERA, .210 OBA.
  

Myers has done slightly better out of the bullpen, which is why the Phillies want to keep him there. He’s a big guy that is developing a good fastball that would tire him out as a starter.
Right now, the Phillies have two holes in their starting rotation: the empty spot left by new free-agent Kyle Lohse, and Adam Eaton (I am not even kidding here). Now, the Phillies have prospects that could fill in one of the spots, and there’s always Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin. The Phillies are also going to look for starters.

Now, assuming that Pat Gillick is half as smart as I think he is, he will be able to adequately complete the starting rotation with or without Myers. So, Myers will probably only be removed as a closer if a better (or much better, depending on willing the Phillies are to move Myers) replacement is found. Many closers can also make good middle relievers- and it's often easy to tell which ones can- meaning the Phillies have some flexibility.


And for your reading pleasure, I conjured up a list of 5 candidates that could possibly replace Myers as the closer…

Eric Gagne: He had a tough run with Boston, but that doesn’t reflect on his skill as a closer: He was the 2003 Cy Young winner. After injury plagued 2005 and 2006 seasons, he played well in 2007 as the Rangers’ closer, but was traded to the Red Sox. In Boston, playing as a middle-reliever rather than a closer, he imploded, having a 6.75 ERA over 20 Games. The likely explanation is that Gagne specializes in closing, and can’t be an effective middle-reliever.

If would be a huge risk signing Gagne. It’s possible that his implosion hurt his skill as a closer- for this reason his market value has dropped from his $6,000,000 2007 salary. If he turns out to close like he did before his implosion, he would be a huge acquisition, and the Phillies would get a lot of bang for their buck. It’s also possible he would be another Freddy Garcia.

It’s not certain whether Pat Gillick will even look into Gagne. Gagne many not be the kind of player the Phillies would want to sign to take over for Myers. However, I think Gagne should definitely be looked into. Right now, according to the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have a mutual interest in him, so he may be gone before the Phillies really get a chance to consider him.

Troy Percival: Having just come out of three injury-plagued season, and retirement, the Phillies probably won’t go for Percival. However, while he’s a risk similar to Gagne, Percival came out of retirement and played his first MLB game back on June 29th, yet still managed to post a 1.80 ERA in 40.0 IP over 34 games in 2007. Not too shabby…

Mariano Rivera: Things have changed a lot here. It was thought by many (including me) that Rivera might leave the Yankees if Torre left. However, Rivera has applauded the hiring of Joe Girardi, and is saying he wants to retire in pinstripes. Also, the Yankees are planning to move Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, meaning they will probably re-sign Rivera. It doesn’t look like Rivera will really be testing the market, although it’s still possible. If he did, the Phillies would likely make him an offer.

Francisco Cordero: Closer for the Brewers in 2006. He was 2.98 ERA, 44/51 saves in 2007, similar to previous years. He’s been talked about by many in the media as a possible closer. He’s had some rough spots in the past few years, though.

Bob Wickman: Wickman is unlikely to re-sign with Arizona, his team at the end of 2007. He has had a lot of good and bad seasons, and has a lot of experience as a closer. His ERA has been around 3.5 recently, and he dropped his ERA a lot over the last two months of the 2007 season. He could play a role similar to Tom Gordon, as a set-up man, or replace Myers as closer, giving the Phillies options. He would probably be a better closer than Gordon, though. I’m not sure if the Phillies think he’s a good enough closer to be signed to replace Myers. However, everybody loves a 240 pound meatballing reliever…


My Choice: Gagne- If we can get him for a good price, we should take him. If he ends up pulling a Freddy Garcia, we can move Myers back and put someone new in the rotation. I think there's a better chance Gagne ends up having his old stuff, in which case we score big.

Probable Phillies' Choice: Nobody- The Phillies are to weary of their (and other Philly teams') past when it comes to big-name acquisitions to take a risk on any of these 5 hit-or-miss guys, or anybody other than Myers. They'll go for a couple starters, most likely Lohse and Schilling, although anybody could end up being signed.

2008 Projected Roster

SP Curt Schilling*
SP Cole Hamels
SP Brett Myers
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Kyle Kendrick
LRP Ryan Madson
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Geoff Geary
MRP J.C. Romero*
MRP Tom Gordon
MRP Antonio Alfonseca*
MRP Clay Condrey
CP Mariano Rivera*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
1B/3B Wes Helms
1B/3B Greg Dobbs
IF Abraham Nunez*
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
LF/RF Michael Bourn
LF Pat Burrell
RF/CF Shane Victorino
RF/LF Jayson Werth

*Player currently Free Agent

Notes:
-Mariano Rivera is a sort of placeholder. I don’t think there’s that high of a chance that he will end up on the Phillies. However, it is my belief that the Phillies will either sign starter Kyle Lohse, closers Mariano Rivera, or Francisco Cordero, or another skilled pitcher. Rivera is only my best guess. If a closer is signed, Myers will probably move back to the starting rotation, although I think Myers would be best suited as a long reliever.

-Schilling and Romero I would consider Free-Agents that have over a 50/50 chance of being Phillies in 2008.

-The Phillies have a plethora of starting pitchers in their farm system to fill in if one of their starters is struggling. To name a few: Kyle Drabeck, Josh Outman, John Ennis, and Adam Eaton. Out of these guys, Outman in particular may find his way into the majors later in the season.

-Speaking of Eaton, if Myers stays in the pen and the Phillies don’t sign two starters, he will probably find his way back into the starting rotation, at least for the start of the season.
Here are the players I’d consider on the Phillies trade block (players who could be up for trades): Adam Eaton and Shane Victorino (or another outfielder).

-Outfielder Mike Cameron may have been on here a day ago, but recent allegations of substance abuse have knocked him off my list for the time being.

-Other players to keep an eye on: 3B Mike Lowell, CP Todd Jones, RP Jose Mesa