Thursday, January 31, 2008

Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.



Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Power Rankings- Week of 1/28

It's been four weeks since the last rankings, largely because of the hot stove cooling off a bit. Enjoy...

National League:

1 (6) Mets- The Mets' signing of SP Johan Santana helps them reclaim a slight advantage over their division rival, and chief competition, the Phillies. The NL East is really too close to call, but it looks as if the Mets may have the upper hand.
2 (5) Phillies- Signing 3B Pedro Feliz was a good move for the Phillies, but one would wonder why the Phillies have done little to adress their "main goal" of "pitching, pitching, pitching". The best they're hoping for right now is SP Kyle Lohse. Ruben Amaro Jr. has been offering more promises than usual, and hopefully Pat Gillick and he will fulfill them.
3 (1) Dodgers
4 (2) Padres
5 (3) Rockies
6 (5) Diamondbacks
7) Braves- Traded for OF Mark Kotsay
8) Cubs- Signed former Phillie SP Jon Lieber
9) Brewers- Signed OF Mike Cameron
10) Cardinals- Sent former Phillie 3B Scott Rolen to the Jays for 3B Troy Glaus
11) Astros- SP Roger Clemens could end up back in Houston. I'm not sure if that's a positive or not.
12) Giants
13) Nationals- C Paul Lo Duca will be out until the middle of Spring Training so the Nats signed former Phillie C Johnny Estrada just in case.
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Aren't keen to the idea of acquiring C/DH Mike Piazza, who wants to play for them and would probably be a good influence. This would require the Marlins to actually be slightly better this year, and that's what the Marlins seem to want to avoid


American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- The Yankees seem to be out of the Santana race at this point.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Rumors about a possible trade for the Orioles' SP Erik Bedard have been spreading like wildfire. It's not clear whether a deal with happen or not; false reports of one were made by MLB.com and a lot of other sources earlier this week.
7) Blue Jays- Traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen
8) White Sox
9) Twins
10) Athletics- Fans don't want OF Barry Bonds, but he's still a possibility
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Still trying to work out a deal to trade Erik Bedard
13) Rays- Signed OF Cliff Floyd
14) Royals- Signed SP Brett Tomko

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Mets Get Santana

The Mets have made a tentative deal with Johan Santana, which looks to be a 6-year deal. Needless to say, this will have major implications on this year's pennant race, and pennant races for years to come. The Phillies are likely to put up bad numbers against lefties to start with.

Something good does come out of this. It looks like we're the only team in the race for Kyle Lohse, so it's likely that we'll sign him. He should be a Phillie again within the next two weeks.

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

  • It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
  • Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
  • I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Phillies Reportedly Sign Feliz

ESPN.com, and the Phillies official website report that the Phillies have agreed to a two-year pact with free-agent Third Baseman Pedro Feliz.

This deal doesn't come as a suprise to anyone, and leaves the Phillies with one of the best rosters in baseball. Feliz is a .253 batter, with 20 homers and 72 RBIs. It's a far cry from the Mike Lowell deal that almost went down, but Feliz is the best Third Baseman still on the market.

I applaud this move, if and only if the Phillies still plan on acquiring another reliable pitcher. I feel like our third base situation has been made to look like worse than it actually is, and that the Phillies aren't doing enough to actively pursue pitchers.

Then again, what does anybody know when it comes to Pat Gillick. Maybe Sammy Sosa could even be next, with his .328 average against lefties, since Gillick seems to keep making broken promises about signing pitchers.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Lidge Trade

Let me preface by saying I have never been a big fan of the concept of a closing pitcher. To get a genuine closer- one that has the lights-out pitches that they use to shut teams down in the ninth inning- such as Mariano Rivera, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, or Eric Gagne you generally need to spend a lot of money. Using another pitcher as a closer (i.e. Brett Myers), one who can't deliver those killer pitches, sort of defeats the purpose of the role.


That role, in my opinion, is very often not worth the $7-8 Million dollars a year Gagne and Percival got this off-season, or the $15 Million a year Rivera is getting. To me, one upgraded inning over maybe a third of your games isn't worth it. Closers are posterboys; a closer is the guy who the catcher picks up and bear hugs when a championship is one. Their blazing fastballs draw the awe of fans and make a team look strong when they win the game. However, it's just one inning (albeit in almost a third of your games), and there's a lot you could do for your rotation or your lineup with that kind of money.



Brad Lidge is ranked 13th in MLB.com's current fantasy rankings for closers, despite coming off a mediocre, injury-plagued 2007 season. Until giving up the game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, Lidge was one of the top closers in baseball. Since then, he hasn't been so great, but the Phillies are hoping that Lidge's new start in Philadelphia will help him move on. If he does so, he can regain his confidence and hopefully begin to dominate batters in the 9th inning just as well as he once did, back in 2004 and 2005.



Lidge is up for salary arbitration. In 2007 he earned $5.35 Million, part of a one-year deal, and I suspect his earnings will be around that after arbitration. Lidge is a risk, but he's going to be a free agent after this season, meaning if he fails to meet expectations we can be done with him after one year. If he has a stellar year, though, it's possible he won't re-sign with the Phillies, and go where the best contract offer is (similarly to Aaron Rowand).



Now, despite my skepticism over the importance of a closer, I think adding Lidge was a great move for Pat Gillick to make (although I wish more moves had followed). We gave up little to get Lidge. Michael Bourn's speed and contributions to outfield depth were easily replaced with So Taguchi and Chris Snelling. Geoff Geary did fill a long-relief mode that was huge to the Phillies in September, but it's unclear if he'll continue be that good in 2008.



The reason Lidge is so vital to the Phillies is the simple fact that our bullpen is absolutely terrible. We need a strong closer to shave off that ninth inning in key games, because our bullpen is thin on talent. As a result, that one inning- given our bullpen's ERA- will more often then not cost us a run. With Lidge hopefully giving us solid 9th inning outings when needed, and Tom Gordon working at set-up man in the 8th , we’re left with fewer innings where we’re stuck with our weaker relievers. Meanwhile, Brett Myers can fill a major hole in the rotation, where hopefully he’ll be effective despite having to re-adjust after a season in the bullpen.


Is this an improvement over last year’s pitching staff? Possibly. I’m not sure if I’d rather have Myers starting and Lidge closing than Kyle Lohse starting, Geary relieving, and Myers closing, but given the amount Lohse would cost us if we re-signed him, I don’t think pursuing him is really an option. Lohse also has a career losing record, and he also had a losing record in 2007, despite his good run with the Phillies. Signing another free-agent starter was also a possibility, but this move is a higher-risk, potentially more rewarding move.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Lidge and Madson Sign, Avoiding Arbitration

Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson both signed one-year deals with the Phillies yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Lidge will get $6.35 million, and Madson $1.4 million. These figures are about what both of these guys would have gotten through arbitration, but it's always healthy to avoid the arbitration process.

The only players left on the arbitration list are Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies' current payroll is about $85 million, and after these two arbitration hearings my guess is that the payroll will jump to about $100 million- about $5 million more than last season- if not more. That would likely mean that the Phillies have room for one more big free-agent signing. At this point, it looks like the top candidates 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Kris Benson, and SP Kyle Lohse. Expect the Phillies to wait until right before spring training before making an offer, in an effort to be able to give a lower offer than they would now. Lohse would be the best candidate, especially if the Mets sign Johan Santana, but Scott Boras can be tough to deal with.

NOTE: Sorry, my math was terribly mistaken. The payroll shouldn't go any higher tht $95 million, last years mark, so possibly two notable signings will be made

Monday, January 14, 2008

Still In the Running for Lohse

Despite the Phillies claiming they were out of the running for Kyle Lohse, they are actually in the running for him (gee, haven't we seen this sort of thing before?). Lohse backed off his demand for a four-year contract, and now wants three and a vesting option. In an online chat last week, Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies are still talking to Scott Boras about a possible deal (at least unlike Pat Gillick, Amaro doesn't have his head... well at least one of them is showing initiative.


Personally, I feel a four-year deal offer would definitely be too long considering it was based solely on Lohse's late-season success. Now that it's three years, I'd probably go for it. There is a weak market for free-agent pitchers now, and Lohse is arguably the best out of all of them. Signing Lohse would allow Chad Durbin to pitch out of the bullpen, and would leave the Phillies with five reliable starters (Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, and Lohse), and Adam Eaton when he's healthy again. The added starting pitching depth is crucial, and probably the best move the Phillies could make at this point. You can't contend for a title with a shaky rotation.

Don't count out other starters on the market, such as Kris Benson either. The Phillies are probably going to wait another month or so to see what happens with Benson. If he's still available, the Phillies may be able to make him a lower offer than they could now.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Ruben Amaro Answers Questions From Fans Online

Minutes ago, Assistant General Manager Ruben Amaro answered questions from fans in a Phillies.com chat. Here are some notable tidbits of information from his answers:

  • Amaro believes pitchers Scott Mathieson and Josh Outman are the farm-team players most likely to end up on the Phillies this year.
  • He thinks the bullpen will be strong, if the rotation stays healthy
  • The Phillies are unlikely to re-sign Jose Mesa
  • He says the lineup is unlikely to change between now and training camp
  • The Phillies are unlikely to sign Bartolo Colon due to reservations about his health
  • The Phillies are still having "continued discussions" with Scott Boras over possibly re-signing Kyle Lohse
  • The Phillies aren't interested in Josh Fogg

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

The Bullpen in '08

The Phillies search for a free-agent starter ended with the signing of journeyman free-agent, former Tigers pitcher Chad Durbin. The signing of Durbin has made it clear that the Phillies intend for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, indefinitely vacated by Adam Eaton’s injury, with one of many unlikely candidates, including Durbin, from within the organization- at least until we are sure if Eaton will be our fifth man in the rotation down the stretch. With the lineup more than adequate, the one place the Phillies have yet to focus on this off-season is the bullpen.
As the Phillies displayed last season in their search for a starter to fill an ailing rotation, they are willing to throw prospect after prospect on the mound until they find the right guy. They eventually settled in with Kyle Kendrick, and what they got was a 10-4 Rookie of the Year candidate who saved the rotation from certain doom. During the first few weeks of the season, and later if an injury occurs to a starter, expect the Phillies to throw guy after guy out there again.

Meanwhile, also similarly to last season, these two-dozen-or-so mediocre pitchers, prospects and journeymen alike, will make up a large part of the Phillies bullpen. Expect the Phillies AAA Pitching staff, relievers, and the fifth spot in the rotation, to be one giant mixing pot.


We know that the Phillies core group of relievers is as follows:

  • MRP J.C. Romero (Left-Handed Pitcher)
  • SU Tom Gordon
  • CP Brad Lidge

Here is the Phillies "Official" Bullpen Depth Chart (from their website):
B. Lidge (CL), T. Gordon, J. Romero, R. Madson, S. Mathieson, C. Condrey, M. Zagurski, F. Rosario, C. Durbin

Here is CBS Sportsline's Depth Chart for Starters:

C. Hamels, B. Myers, J. Moyer, A. Eaton, K. Kendrick, C. Carrasco, J Durbin, C. Durbin, S. Mathieson, T. Blackley, J. Outman, J. Savery



Here is CBS Sportsline's Bullpen Depth Chart:
B. Lidge, T. Gordon, R. Madson, J. Romero, F. A. Rosario, C. Condrey, F. Castro, J. Ennis, M. Zagurski, S. Youman, L. Holdzkom, Y. Hernandez, V. Darensbourg, K. Wilson, J. Anderson, M. Childers, J. Pope, R. Swindle, R. Chiavacci, G. Knotts, B. Mazone



Seem like a lot to take in? I'm going to assume the answer is yes, considering I haven't heard of nearly a third of those guys. It's interesting how the CBS Sportsline one puts Eaton before Kendrick, and Chad Durbin is seventh. It's a reminder of how weak our bullpen is when we see Brad Lidge, who was mediocre in 2007 at best, as our top guy in the pen. Undoubtedly we'll be relying a lot on starters like the Durbins.

While everything except the top four spots in the rotation, the set-up man, and closer is very unclear at this point, I've compiled my own bullpen depth chart. I'm not going to make one for starting pitching, since who can and may start beyond Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Kendrick is very unclear at this point. Here is my organization depth chart for the bullpen (although it doesn't go that deep into the organization), which for all intents and purposes counts everyone except those four, Eaton (who is unlikely to pitch out of the bullpen at all at least for the first couple months of the season) Lidge, and Gordon, as long-or-middle-relievers, not starters or closers.


  1. J.C. Romero
  2. Ryan Madson
  3. J.D. Durbin
  4. Clay Condrey
  5. Chad Durbin
  6. Shane Youman
  7. Scott Mathieson
  8. Fabio Castro
  9. Francisco Rosario
  10. Travis Blackley
  11. Carlos Carrasco
  12. Lincoln Holdzkom
  13. John Ennis
  14. Matt Zagurski
  15. Josh Outman
  16. Joe Savery

Granted this list may have a slight shortage of veterans or any sort of potential rookie-of-the-year candidates, but this list contains the guys the Phillies are hoping at least one of which will step up and follow in the footsteps of Kyle Kendrick. Now, it may take a heck of a lot of scouting, and maybe 3-10 games down the drain to find the right guy- that is, if we ever find the right guy.

A lot of the young guys in here may get a chance on the 40-man roster, especially down the stretch. Otherwise, expect maybe 6 or 7 of the above guys in the pen.

These guys definitely create one of the most makeshift bullpens we've seen for a long time. Maybe this roll of the dice will result in a bullpen better that last year, or maybe it will be even worse- something this fan doesn't even want to think about.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Jayson Werth Re-Signed

Outfielder Jayson Werth, who as a backup and platoon right-fielder hit .298 this season, was signed to a 1-year, $1.7 Million dollar contract, avoiding arbitration. This figure seems about what he'd get from arbitration, maybe a bit less considering Werth's often-underlooked batting average from last season. Werth will probably be a part of a platoon in right-field with Geoff Jenkins, although Jenkins will probably recieve more playing time.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Power Rankings- Week of 1/7

National League:

1) Dodgers
2) Rockies-
3) Padres- Signed Mark Prior to a 1-year deal worth $1 Million with another $4.5 Million in incentives. Good signing- cheap, albeit risky given Prior's health woes.
4) Diamondbacks
5) Phillies- Traded speedy outfielder Chris Roberson for cash. Is this cheap penny-pinching, or gathering money for a future deal? The answer to this question will certainly effect where the Phillies rank come Spring Training.
6) Mets
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals- Signed starter Matt Clement, who is just coming off a shoulder surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2007 season.
11) Astros- Added versatile reliever Oscar Villarreal and old-news outfielder Darin Erstad. Ed Wade is making a lot of moves, but it's hard to see if they were the right ones. The Astros could be a contender or one of the worst teams in the league depending on how Wade's deals work out for them.
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
?????? Marlins


American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- Hank Steinbrenner says Roger Clemens will not be returning to the Yankees this season.
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- In a distant third in the race for Johan Santana, but are pretty much out at this point.
7) Blue Jays
8 (10) White Sox- Picking up Nick Swisher from the Athletics pushes the Sox back the Twins.

9 (9) Twins- Still in limbo due to the uncertainty surrounding whether or not Santana will be traded. If it happens, the Twins will likely plunge into the league cellar, unless the players they recieve end up having a spectacular 2008 season.

10 (8) Athletics- Traded Swisher to the White Sox for prospects, and now their interest has dropped in Barry Bonds (although he's still on their radar). It seems the A's are making like the Marlins and thrusting themselves the the league cellar in hopes of a better future. Expect them to make more moves towards that end.
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Traded cash to the Phillies for Chris Roberson.
13) Rays
14) Royals- Signed catcher Miguel Olivio to a one-year deal.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Projected 2008 Roster, 4th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

  • Players who could be next in line (noted with their usual position) :
    -From the 40-Man Roster: SP Scott Mathieson, RP Matt Zagurski (L), LRP/SP Shane Youman (L), LRP John Ennis, SP Travis Blackley (L), MRP Fabrio Castro (L), C Jason Jaramillo, 2B Brad Harman, OF Chris Snelling, and OF T.J. Bohn
    -Not on Current Roster: SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman (L), SP Joe Savery (L), and C Pete LaForest
  • LaForest was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley recently.
  • Chris Roberson was traded yesterday to the Orioles for cash. Hopefully that cash goes towards a big-name pitcher such as Bob Wickman or Bartolo Colon, but for the time being that looks unlikely. It seems more likely that the Phillies will do as they did last season and wait until the trade deadline.
  • If Adam Eaton is at-or-near 100%, expect him to be the fifth man in the rotation. If not, expect the Phillies to start the season with Chad Durbin in that position. However, the Phillies may try out some alternative options, especially if Eaton will be out for more than a few weeks. The Phillies are preparing for this by having 24 pitchers on their 40-man roster and 7 non-roster invitees, at least one of which the Phillies hope will be another Kyle Kendrick.
  • Beyond Chad Durbin and Eaton, the Phillies could end up experimenting with some of the following pitchers (or even other pitchers not yet in the running) for the fifth spot in the rotation, depending on who does a good job of showing their stuff during spring training (the list is conviniently ordered from most to least likely): J.D. Durbin, Youman, Blackley, Mathieson, Carrasco, Ennis, Outman, Savery.
  • If Eaton won’t be starting, expect him to be on the disabled list until he’s at-or-near 100%. At that time he’ll probably do some rehab assignments, make a relief appearance or two, and come back into the rotation. How fast all this happens depends how desperate the Phillies are to have him back. It is also a possibility that, like Jon Lieber, or John Smoltz (okay, maybe not the fairest comparison), Eaton could end up pitching in the bullpen when he returns.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Roberson to the Orioles

The Phillies sent outfielder Chris Roberson to the Orioles today for cash considerations. The 28-year-old Roberson hit .286 in 28 at bats over 28 games last season. My gut tells me that the Phillies are trying to open up some cap room for a big acquisition, but my brain is telling me this is likely just penny-pinching. Roberson brought speed and depth to the outfield and the lineup, and I hope that this move leads to something better.

In other news, catcher Pete LaForest has been sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley. Not much of a suprise here.