Outlook Thus Far

The first few weeks of the 2008 season haven't been kind to many top contenders. Many teams that were labeled as early front-runners in their divisions, or even early world series favorites, have struggled to get above, or sometimes even reach, the .500 mark. What's even more unusual is the good starts for some American League teams who were thought to be the worst in baseball (such as the Athletics and Orioles). We're over three weeks in, and if the playoffs were to start today, we'd have the Athletics, White Sox, and Marlins in!


The Phillies have had a mediocre start at best. They already weren't playing that well when Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins went down. The short-term loss of these two key players has left the Phillies without a natural leadoff man, somebody who has a history of running well and maintaining a healthy batting average. They've tried a bunch of new, odd lead-off men; late-inning defensive replacements Eric Bruntlett and So Taguchi, as well has middle-lineup outfielders Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth. What the Phillies are left with is a power-hitting lineup that has trouble (even more so than before) putting runners on base, resulting in a lot of home runs, but not a whole lot of runs.



The pitching has also been topsy-turvy thus far. Cole Hamels has pitched well in all four of his starts. Brett Myers needed some time to find a groove, as he's still adjusting after closing for a season. Adam Eaton has pitched surprisingly well thus far, while Jamie Moyer looks like he might be aging (surprise!) a bit too fast. Whether Kyle Kendrick will be able to return to his stellar form of 2007 is yet to be seen. The bullpen has met a problem similar to last year: inconsistency. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge haven't allowed an earned run yet, but beyond that, the relief pitching has been par at best.



In my mind the keys for the Phillies in 2008 will be staying healthy (last year almost every member of the entire starting lineup was injured at one point or another), and maintaining consistency. This team is loaded with talented players, but they continue to be plagued by the fact that half of them seem to be struggling or sidelined on any given day. For instance, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley have been on a tear, while Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino (prior to his injury) haven't been doing so hot. As the pennant race heats up, it's going to be imperative that the men in the starting rotation have settled into their roles, and can give consistent performances night in and night out. The bullpen, as it did in September of last year, will have to be made up of at least a few arms who can shut down opposing batters in the final three innings, and hold on to leads in critical games. Finally, the Phils have to get comfortable at the plate. You can't win a title if you constantly have two or three of your best players in a slump.

One thing that worries me is how proactive Pat Gillick will be when it comes to making necessary mid-season moves. It often seems as if Gillick is just riding out his final year with the team, waiting for retirement. Gillick passed up an opportunity to get a bargain deal on Kyle Lohse, a solid arm who could have helped to anchor down the shaky starting rotation. The $4 million or so that Lohse wanted was quite low given the typical baseball salaries these days, especially considering that he wanted 4 years and $30 million earlier, and was now willing to take a petty one year pack. Gillick did a good job when he picked up Lohse last year at the trade deadline, and that move probably made the difference in the NL East race. Gillick needs to continue to make smart moves such as the Lohse deal, capitalizing on opportunities when they come.

Power Rankings- Week of 4/21/08

National League:

1 (6) Diamondbacks- The D'Backs league-leading 116 runs (thats 6.4 a game) has no doubt been the difference maker for the Diamondbacks thus far. They've clearly been the heavyweight in the NL in April.
2 (3) Mets- The Mets may be missing Pedro Martinez and Moises Alou, but they've shown strong depth to back up those losses. The Mets have posted some convincing wins against the Phillies, gaining a head start in a critical season series that could have major implications in the pennant race.
3 (4) Phillies- The injuries of Jimmy Rollins (now on the 15-day DL) and Shane Victorino have left the Phillies without the top of their lineup, leaving them without a proper leadoff man. They will probably continue to struggle as these injuries linger, but the Phils have already proven that they can pick up the scraps when it counts.
4 (2) Padres- The Padres are 9-9, hovering around the .500 mark similar to a lot of National League contenders. April's too early to really worry about this, so the Phillies, Rockies, Padres, and Braves shouldn't be too worried.
5 (9) Cubs- Similarly to the D-Backs in the west, the Cubs are leading the NL Central because of their 111 runs scored, second in the majors to only the Diamondbacks.
6 (8) Brewers- The Brew Crew started 6-2, but they've cooled off a bit since then. Expect it to be a race between them, the Cardinals, and the Cubs for the NL Central crown,
7 (5) Rockies- The Rockies have started flat, seeming to have lost the magic of their wonderous September. The question remains whether the Rockies were a fluke gone to far, or are a legitimate contender that can return to the World Series.
8 (11) Cardinals- If Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainright can continue to exceed expectations, and provide solid starts day in and day out (as they have been doing thus far), the Cardinals could easily become the front-runner in the NL Central.
9 (7) Braves
10 (1) Dodgers- The lackluster play by Andruw Jones, and the whole team in general, drops the Dodgers from being my #1 into the large mass of mediocre NL teams. Unlike other teams wandering around .500, the Dodgers have the most to worry about. Joe Torre better start earning his paycheck soon if he wants to return to the playoffs for the umpteenth straight time.
11(12) Astros
12 (16) Marlins- The Marlins lead the NL East?!?!?! How is this even possible? ....I'll answer that one for you: Their strength of schedule is by leaps and bounds the worst in the divison. The only team they've played above .500 was the Mets, who won that series 2-1.
13 (13) Giants
14 (14) Reds
15 (10) Nationals- After a strong 3-0 start, the Nationals have dropped 14 out of 16, earning the worst record in baseball
16 (15) Pirates


American League

1 (1) Red Sox-
2 (3) Angels-
3 (2) Yankees-
4 (5) Mariners-
5 (4) Indians
6 (6) White Sox-
7 (8) Tigers- It's been 19 games, and they're still playing flat. I think the Tigers can turn it around, but they need to do it soon if they want to compete in the tough AL pennant race.
8 (10) Athletics-
9 (11) Rangers
10 (7) Blue Jays-
11 (14) Orioles- With a record of 11-8 it's almost like the Orioles are a contender, or something crazy like that...
12 (9) Twins-
13 (12) Royals- 9-10! KEEP BREAKING OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!! Finally, something for Royals fans to celebrate...
14 (13) Rays-

Power Rankings- 4/3/07

National League:


1 (2) Dodgers - It's always fun to see Larry Bowa go beserk on an umpire, but for godsakes, you're a third base coach. Stay in the box (as the rule dictates), both literally, and symbolically. You don't get to yell at umpires anymore- you're not important enough.
2 (3) Padres
3 (1) Mets- Pedro Martinez is going to be out for at least 6 weeks, if not much longer. With Moises Alou injured as well, one must begin to wonder if the Mets' key veterans can stay healthy this season.
4 (2) Phillies- The Phillies are now at the point where they're trying to avoid being swept by the Nationals of all teams. One day their pitching falls apart, the next their bats. I wouldn't worry too much, as it's only the first week, and the Phillies have proven they can fight back. It is disconcerting, though, that the Phillies have begun the season with play reminiscent of their play in 2007. Kicking off the season with the pitching falling apart has many fans worried.
5 (5) Rockies
6 (6) Diamondbacks
7 (7) Braves
8 (9) Brewers- The Brewers have struck first and second in the battle of the NL Central heavyweights, up 2-0 in their series against the reigning-champion Cubs.
9 (8) Cubs
10 (13) Nationals- The Nationals are 3-0? Say it ain't so! The Nationals have played well in their first three games. They got lucky yesterday due to the Phillies bats running cold. Could the Nationals be a contender this year?
11) Cardinals
12) Astros
13) Giants
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- The Marlins win on a walk-off against the Mets, with shades of the Marlins ownage of the Mets last September... Who the hell is Robert Andino anyway?


American League

1) Red Sox- Win the opening series 3-1, although it's only the Athletics that they beat.
2) Yankees-
3) Angels-
4) Indians
5) Mariners-
6) Tigers- Injuries to Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson hurt, but that doesn't drop Detroit past the Blue Jays.
7) Blue Jays-
8) White Sox-
9) Twins-
10) Athletics-
11) Rangers
12 (13) Royals- 2-0! BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!!
13 (13) Rays-
14 (12) Orioles- 10,000 fans on the second game of the season?!?! What is this, Montreal?