The "Fightin' Phillies" Blog

The Search for a Number Two

2008-06-15T12:17:00.005-04:00

Like Romeo and Juliet, so many of us spend so much of our lives searching for that one person who can make us whole. Often our searches aren't as fast as furious as the infamous star-crossed lovers, and can drag out a long time. Luckily it's pretty clear what the Phillies are looking for in their other half- a solid starting pitcher. A reversal of fates has occured in the pitching staff, with the bullpen going from worst to first, and the rotation going from good to below-average.

The greatest ailment for the rotation has been a case of serious mediocrity. Beyond Cole Hamels, who has been great as usual, things have been rocky. Jamie Moyer is pitching as well as you can really expect a 45-year-old to pitch. Kyle Kendrick is having some trouble nailing down his stuff after a successful rookie campaign. As for Adam Eaton, you'd find his picture in the dictionary under "mediocre"; I don't think there's a better example of the word anywhere on earth.

Brett Myers has been a disappointment, showing a lot of inconsistency. He'll go out one night and pitch an eight-inning, two-hit gem, and then give up three first-inning homers in his next start. It's believed that Myers has been struggling making the transition back to being a starter, after closing last year. It seems that after seeing how well he could close, and how fun it was, he's having trouble meeting expectations this season.

The logical solution to this problem would be to give some other arms a chance in the rotation, and see how they work out, but the challenge is that there aren't any good options available. Adam Eaton, at the back end of the rotation, is clearly the best choice. Chad Durbin is too valuable as a jack-of-all-trades reliever, and oft-injured Kris Benson is running into setback after setback along his comeback trail.

So, with four average guys already in the rotation, and no prospects or oft-injured arms waiting in the wings, clearly this new starter is going to have to come from outside the organization. The Phillies will probably be seeking out somebody to pitch in the second spot behind Cole Hamels during the playoffs, or maybe behind Brett Myers should he make a resurgence.

In my mind the best possibility is Erik Bedard. Now that the Mariners are in the AL cellar, and have fired their GM, they might shop him. The Flyers could deal some infield prospects in a possible trade, as Utley and Rollins won't be going anywhere soon. C.C. Sabathia might be a good option, but the Indians don't seem too likely to trade him, and even if they did, it'd be hard to compete with the Yankees, who have a better chance of re-signing Sabathia after this year. Freddy Garcia, if he wasn't so despised in Philadelphia, might fit. Expect trade talks to pick up as we approach the trade deadline- the Phillies might make a big move.

Why Myers & Durbin Should Pull the Old Switcheroo

2008-05-18T21:42:00.003-04:00

Chad Durbin has done a great job in long-relief this year. As a starter, Brett Myers has been, well, less than stellar. Myers is giving up a lot of home runs, after a good season in the bullpen.

The solution to all of this? Switch'em. Myers is 238 pounds. He has to put his whole weight into his arm when he pitches. This tires it out quickly. For this reason, many big men, such as Bob Wickman, made their name out in the bullpen. Myers was showing signs of greatness as a blossoming closer last year, but necessity made a move back to the rotation a common-sense one. The acquisition of Brad Lidge made it even more necessary. However, now we're discovering that Myers is having trouble developing consistency as an ace.

That being said, I think the Phillies should take some time to try out some other guys in his rotation spot. It's going to mess up Myers' rhythm, but then again, what rhythm is there to mess up? The way he's pitching, I would not want to see him on the hill in October. He'll be a solid reliever, like last year, and he'll be very happy with it. He may even be good trade bait come mid-season. I hate saying this but Myers is built as a closer, and the Phillies aren't the kind of team that can afford to experiment with his versatility. Durbin has been solid, so they should try him out in that spot.

Player Rankings

2008-05-15T10:27:00.009-04:00

This season has been full of ups and downs galore in terms of the way the Phillies players have performed. So, with many players slumping, it's time to give out our first Phillies' player rankings.

1) Chase Utley- As the Phillies' superstars go, Utley has been the only one thus far to live up to the expectations. He's been great at the plate, and his 14 homers is tied for best in the majors. If Utley can stay healthy and continue to play consistently, he'll no doubt be one of the top contenders for the league MVP award.
2) Brad Lidge- Lidge's 2008 success isn't a big shock to anybody, but the way he's regained his dominance is not what most people expected. Coming off his injury, he realized he'd have to focus more on control and movement than pitch speed, and now he's developed a devastating slider to go with his still-sharp heater. I have to admit, even though he's my favorite player on the team, I chuckled when I first saw "Lights-Out Lidge" on the scoreboard at Citizen's Bank Park. However, he's more than lived up to the nickname.
3) Pat Burrell- Unlike previous years Burrell's actually living up to his high salary ($14 million), providing the power the middle of the lineup desperately needs with Ryan Howard slumping. The question is whether or not Burrell can overcome his struggles with mid-season slumps.
4) Cole Hamels- Cole hasn't pitched as well as many would have expected, but it's too early to worry about him slightly cooling off. If his ERA is still over 3 by August, then it's worth discussing, but for now, he's doing his job well.
5) Jimmy Rollins- Rollins probably won't match his 2007 MVP performance this season, but he's still the best leadoff man in baseball, hands down. He's looking like his injury won't have much of a lingering effect on his speed.
6) Chad Durbin- Durbin's 24.0 innings pitched and 1.50 ERA have offered the Phillies the long-relief they've been searching for. With the starting pitchers struggling, expect Durbin to continue to play a large role, whether it's long-relief or possibly starting. A rare kudos to Pat Gillick for snatching Durbin up for less than a million dollars.
7) J.C. Romero- If you're going to be the only reliable lefty in the bullpen, you'd better pitch well. Romero's continued his good work from 2007, probably leaving Theo Epstein with some slight regret over cutting him last year.
8) Rudy Seanez- The righty has as ERA of 1.59, but only has 14 appearances. It's incredible when you consider four out of our top eight players are relievers. Wait a minute... WE HAVE THE LOWEST BULLPEN ERA IN BASEBALL?!?! THE PHILLIES?!?!? Wow, who would've thought...
9) Greg Dobbs- Dobbs .327 average is incredible when you consider he's not even a regular starter, or even part of a platoon. The Phillies would never replace Howard or Feliz with him though, although Dobbs could play in the outfield. The interesting thing here is that as mostly baseless Ryan Howard trade rumors circulate, you have to wonder if they might gain validity as Dobbs keeps getting better and better.
10) Chris Coste- I don't care if he's the backup catcher on a team filled with superstars. I personally watched Coste start rally after rally in Wednesday's 8-6 loss to the Braves, in which he went 4-4. He's batting .339, and that's no fluke.
11) Jayson Werth- Werth has managed to overshadow his platoon partner Geoff Jenkins, even against right-handed hitters. He continues to defy expectations.
12) Tom Gordon- Gordon hasn't given up a run in over a month, amounting to 11.2 scoreless innings in which he has only allowed 6 hits and 4 walks. This is impressive given Gordon's dim outlook after his early struggles, but kudos to him for picking up his game.
13) Geoff Jenkins- His mediocre start doesn't seem to be worth $6.5 million a year, but it's still early. He'll get less and less playing time as Werth gets better and better.
14) Kyle Kendrick- Kendrick is definitely showing signs supporting the universal sophomore curse, but he's been getting better as the season has progressed, suggesting that he's doing a good job of overcoming his early-season struggles.
15) Ryan Howard- Many people are confident that Howard will eventually pull out of his current slump. I think that he's going to have to work on some glaring weaknesses he has in the box, because his home runs don't make up for his very high strikeout count (58) and terrible .185 average. However, he shouldn't be traded.
16) Pedro Feliz- Feliz's defense has been fine, but his offense leaves much to be desired. His .241 average and dreadful .288 OBP are disappointing, and raise questions as to whether or not he should be the everyday starter. Expect Greg Dobbs to start getting increasing numbers of starts unless Feliz picks up his game.
17) Jamie Moyer- The oldest man in the sport is showing signs of running out of gas. It's yet to be seen whether he's still going to have to spark that could, come September, make his pitch like he did down the stretch last year.
18) Eric Bruntlett- Kudos to Bruntlett for doing a better job replacing Rollins that many would expect. Having a better average than Feliz, Howard, and Victorino has to count for something.
19) Carlos Ruiz- Ruiz's game hasn't changed much from last year, but with Chris Coste improving, Ruiz might lose his starting job.
20) Adam Eaton- He's looking better than last year, but it's yet to be seen whether his seemingly eternal "nagging injuries" are more than just an overused excuse.
21) Ryan Madson- Expected to be the shut-down guy in the seventh, he now has a 4.66 ERA. Last year this would have been great, but with the turnaround the bullpen has had, it just doesn't cut it. I have a gut feeling that Madson might not be here come playoff time, due to the amount of talent in the Phillies' bullpen, and the fact that Madson's services as a long-reliever (and maybe starter) might be in increased demand later in the season.
22) Brett Myers- Myers is stuck in an unfortunate position, built like a closer but experienced as a starter. Now that Myers has seen that the grass is really greener in the bullpen, he's having time adjusting back to being a starter. If he doesn't turn his game (and massive home run count) around, then expect him to be a reliever by next season- whether it's in our bullpen, or in another team's bullpen. 240 pound brutes aren't meant to be starters.
23) Shane Victorino- Victorino seems to just be in a slump, but it's important to remember that Victorino spent much of last season recovering from an injury, and only had about one-and-a-half really good seasons. He'll probably pull out, but it's not an inevitability by any stretch of the imagination.
24) So Taguchi- Taguchi's numbers have been downright awful, and unlike Howard or Victorino, he's unlikely to get much better. His defense hasn't exactly secured him even the lowliest title of "late inning defensive replacement" either.
25) Clay Condrey- Condrey's been doing okay, but he'll be the first to go if any pitching prospects are called up. He deserves praise, however, for fighting hard to win out that final roster spot over a plethora of other relievers, who now play for the downright awful IronPigs.

Outlook Thus Far

2008-04-21T14:44:00.004-04:00

The first few weeks of the 2008 season haven't been kind to many top contenders. Many teams that were labeled as early front-runners in their divisions, or even early world series favorites, have struggled to get above, or sometimes even reach, the .500 mark. What's even more unusual is the good starts for some American League teams who were thought to be the worst in baseball (such as the Athletics and Orioles). We're over three weeks in, and if the playoffs were to start today, we'd have the Athletics, White Sox, and Marlins in!

The Phillies have had a mediocre start at best. They already weren't playing that well when Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins went down. The short-term loss of these two key players has left the Phillies without a natural leadoff man, somebody who has a history of running well and maintaining a healthy batting average. They've tried a bunch of new, odd lead-off men; late-inning defensive replacements Eric Bruntlett and So Taguchi, as well has middle-lineup outfielders Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth. What the Phillies are left with is a power-hitting lineup that has trouble (even more so than before) putting runners on base, resulting in a lot of home runs, but not a whole lot of runs.

The pitching has also been topsy-turvy thus far. Cole Hamels has pitched well in all four of his starts. Brett Myers needed some time to find a groove, as he's still adjusting after closing for a season. Adam Eaton has pitched surprisingly well thus far, while Jamie Moyer looks like he might be aging (surprise!) a bit too fast. Whether Kyle Kendrick will be able to return to his stellar form of 2007 is yet to be seen. The bullpen has met a problem similar to last year: inconsistency. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge haven't allowed an earned run yet, but beyond that, the relief pitching has been par at best.

In my mind the keys for the Phillies in 2008 will be staying healthy (last year almost every member of the entire starting lineup was injured at one point or another), and maintaining consistency. This team is loaded with talented players, but they continue to be plagued by the fact that half of them seem to be struggling or sidelined on any given day. For instance, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley have been on a tear, while Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino (prior to his injury) haven't been doing so hot. As the pennant race heats up, it's going to be imperative that the men in the starting rotation have settled into their roles, and can give consistent performances night in and night out. The bullpen, as it did in September of last year, will have to be made up of at least a few arms who can shut down opposing batters in the final three innings, and hold on to leads in critical games. Finally, the Phils have to get comfortable at the plate. You can't win a title if you constantly have two or three of your best players in a slump.

One thing that worries me is how proactive Pat Gillick will be when it comes to making necessary mid-season moves. It often seems as if Gillick is just riding out his final year with the team, waiting for retirement. Gillick passed up an opportunity to get a bargain deal on Kyle Lohse, a solid arm who could have helped to anchor down the shaky starting rotation. The $4 million or so that Lohse wanted was quite low given the typical baseball salaries these days, especially considering that he wanted 4 years and $30 million earlier, and was now willing to take a petty one year pack. Gillick did a good job when he picked up Lohse last year at the trade deadline, and that move probably made the difference in the NL East race. Gillick needs to continue to make smart moves such as the Lohse deal, capitalizing on opportunities when they come.

Power Rankings- Week of 4/21/08

2008-04-21T12:21:00.004-04:00

National League:

1 (6) Diamondbacks- The D'Backs league-leading 116 runs (thats 6.4 a game) has no doubt been the difference maker for the Diamondbacks thus far. They've clearly been the heavyweight in the NL in April.
2 (3) Mets- The Mets may be missing Pedro Martinez and Moises Alou, but they've shown strong depth to back up those losses. The Mets have posted some convincing wins against the Phillies, gaining a head start in a critical season series that could have major implications in the pennant race.
3 (4) Phillies- The injuries of Jimmy Rollins (now on the 15-day DL) and Shane Victorino have left the Phillies without the top of their lineup, leaving them without a proper leadoff man. They will probably continue to struggle as these injuries linger, but the Phils have already proven that they can pick up the scraps when it counts.
4 (2) Padres- The Padres are 9-9, hovering around the .500 mark similar to a lot of National League contenders. April's too early to really worry about this, so the Phillies, Rockies, Padres, and Braves shouldn't be too worried.
5 (9) Cubs- Similarly to the D-Backs in the west, the Cubs are leading the NL Central because of their 111 runs scored, second in the majors to only the Diamondbacks.
6 (8) Brewers- The Brew Crew started 6-2, but they've cooled off a bit since then. Expect it to be a race between them, the Cardinals, and the Cubs for the NL Central crown,
7 (5) Rockies- The Rockies have started flat, seeming to have lost the magic of their wonderous September. The question remains whether the Rockies were a fluke gone to far, or are a legitimate contender that can return to the World Series.
8 (11) Cardinals- If Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainright can continue to exceed expectations, and provide solid starts day in and day out (as they have been doing thus far), the Cardinals could easily become the front-runner in the NL Central.
9 (7) Braves
10 (1) Dodgers- The lackluster play by Andruw Jones, and the whole team in general, drops the Dodgers from being my #1 into the large mass of mediocre NL teams. Unlike other teams wandering around .500, the Dodgers have the most to worry about. Joe Torre better start earning his paycheck soon if he wants to return to the playoffs for the umpteenth straight time.
11(12) Astros
12 (16) Marlins- The Marlins lead the NL East?!?!?! How is this even possible? ....I'll answer that one for you: Their strength of schedule is by leaps and bounds the worst in the divison. The only team they've played above .500 was the Mets, who won that series 2-1.
13 (13) Giants
14 (14) Reds
15 (10) Nationals- After a strong 3-0 start, the Nationals have dropped 14 out of 16, earning the worst record in baseball
16 (15) Pirates

American League

1 (1) Red Sox-
2 (3) Angels-
3 (2) Yankees-
4 (5) Mariners-
5 (4) Indians
6 (6) White Sox-
7 (8) Tigers- It's been 19 games, and they're still playing flat. I think the Tigers can turn it around, but they need to do it soon if they want to compete in the tough AL pennant race.
8 (10) Athletics-
9 (11) Rangers
10 (7) Blue Jays-
11 (14) Orioles- With a record of 11-8 it's almost like the Orioles are a contender, or something crazy like that...
12 (9) Twins-
13 (12) Royals- 9-10! KEEP BREAKING OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!! Finally, something for Royals fans to celebrate...
14 (13) Rays-

Power Rankings- 4/3/07

2008-04-03T14:39:00.002-04:00

National League:

1 (2) Dodgers - It's always fun to see Larry Bowa go beserk on an umpire, but for godsakes, you're a third base coach. Stay in the box (as the rule dictates), both literally, and symbolically. You don't get to yell at umpires anymore- you're not important enough.
2 (3) Padres
3 (1) Mets- Pedro Martinez is going to be out for at least 6 weeks, if not much longer. With Moises Alou injured as well, one must begin to wonder if the Mets' key veterans can stay healthy this season.
4 (2) Phillies- The Phillies are now at the point where they're trying to avoid being swept by the Nationals of all teams. One day their pitching falls apart, the next their bats. I wouldn't worry too much, as it's only the first week, and the Phillies have proven they can fight back. It is disconcerting, though, that the Phillies have begun the season with play reminiscent of their play in 2007. Kicking off the season with the pitching falling apart has many fans worried.
5 (5) Rockies
6 (6) Diamondbacks
7 (7) Braves
8 (9) Brewers- The Brewers have struck first and second in the battle of the NL Central heavyweights, up 2-0 in their series against the reigning-champion Cubs.
9 (8) Cubs
10 (13) Nationals- The Nationals are 3-0? Say it ain't so! The Nationals have played well in their first three games. They got lucky yesterday due to the Phillies bats running cold. Could the Nationals be a contender this year?
11) Cardinals
12) Astros
13) Giants
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- The Marlins win on a walk-off against the Mets, with shades of the Marlins ownage of the Mets last September... Who the hell is Robert Andino anyway?

American League

1) Red Sox- Win the opening series 3-1, although it's only the Athletics that they beat.
2) Yankees-
3) Angels-
4) Indians
5) Mariners-
6) Tigers- Injuries to Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson hurt, but that doesn't drop Detroit past the Blue Jays.
7) Blue Jays-
8) White Sox-
9) Twins-
10) Athletics-
11) Rangers
12 (13) Royals- 2-0! BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!!
13 (13) Rays-
14 (12) Orioles- 10,000 fans on the second game of the season?!?! What is this, Montreal?

My Thoughts On Opening Day

2008-03-31T21:25:00.004-04:00

Ugly. Disappointing. Worrying. These are a few ways to describe the Phillies' first game of the season, coming off their NL East title. The Phillies offense was at full power, but the pitching met the same challenges as last season. Brett Myers went 5 innings- four were strong, but he allowed four runs in the fifth. The Nationals tagged on two more, but the Phillies, aided by homers by Utley and Rollins, climbed back to tie it at 6-6. It remained 6-6 until the top of the ninth, when Tom Gordon allowed 5 runs, handing the Phillies a disappointing loss and yet another 0-1 start.

The thing that worries me about this game is how quickly the pitching fell apart. Brett Myers crumbled in the fifth, leaving us to wonder if he's ready to start pitching more than 5 or 6 innings after closing last year. Gordon, who is key to the bullpen, earned himself an ERA of 135.00 in a terrible outing that earned him more boos than Adam Eaton received during the pre-game introduction (and you know how much Philly hates Adam Eaton).

One must wonder if this bullpen really will be stronger this year, or if the bullpen woes will continue into 2008.

Myers Makes a Bold Statement

2008-03-29T09:53:00.004-04:00

Last Year, before the season began, Jimmy Rollins stated that he thought the Phillies were the "team to beat" in the NL East. Yesterday, Brett Myers made a bold statement of his own, one that I'd suggest keeping an eye on: Myers believes the Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball.

I wouldn't rule this one out; all five of the Phillies starters (Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton) have the potential to be solid starters, but the real question is whether they can avoid the problems they've faced. Hamels is quite prone to injury. Myers was a closer for most of last year, and was 0-3 as a starter anyway. Moyer is the oldest player in baseball. Kendrick is subject to the dreaded "Sophomore Curse". Eaton has been struggling with injuries, and hasn't been near 100% for quite a while now. I could see all of these guys with records of well above .500, but they have some problems, and potential problems, they need to deal with.

Garciaparra Down, Helms in for Dodgers?

2008-03-19T22:17:00.003-04:00

As discussed earlier this month, there have been rumors of the Dodgers having interest in Wes Helms, who would play backup to Nomar Garciaparra at Third Base. Now, Garciaparra has broken his finger, making the chances of dealing Helms a bit more likely.

Lohse Finally Signed

2008-03-14T11:56:00.002-04:00

Kyle Lohse's Scott Boras-induced nightmare is over. Lohse has reportedly signed a 1-year pact with the Cardinals, with $4 Million or $5 Million. Boras tried to sell Lohse at almost twice that much per year, over four years, but nobody bit. Lohse is lucky to even get a major-league deal at this point.

Hamels Punches Wall, Creates New Continent

2008-03-12T21:51:00.005-04:00

Okay, obviously this isn't true, but the Serious Sports Network runs some pretty, well, unreal stories. And they are HILARIOUS. They do some great work over there, it's a wonder they haven't gotten more press coverage. A true pleasure for any fan of sports and satire. *Click here* to see the story from this post's title.

*Click here* to see another classic Cole Hamels one: "Hamels Performs own Tommy John Surgery, Recovers Immediately"

Helms to Dodgers?

2008-03-10T14:36:00.007-04:00

With Third Baseman Andy LaRoche expected to be out for at least a couple months, the Dodgers have decided that Nomar Garciaparra will be manning the hot corner opening day. However, Garciaparra isn't expected to play in every game, so the Dodgers are looking for a backup to fill in once or twice a week. Joe Torre has said he prefers to look within the organization for that backup, but it's possible that they could make an offer for the Phillies' Wes Helms. Helms is now all but out of a job, due to the signing of Pedro Feliz.

If a deal happened, it would probably involve Helms going to the Dodgers for a draft pick (or draft picks), and maybe a pitcher if the Phillies are lucky. Acquiring Helms probably wouldn't be worth giving any sort of notable prospect for the Dodgers, and the Phillies don't need any more no-better-than-mediocre pitchers- they have plenty of those.

The Marlins and Braves have also shown interest in Helms. The Phillies seem to be aware of this, as they've been giving Helms a lot of playing time in Spring Training, despite the fact that he's a contender for the bench at best.

What might draw the Phillies into making a deal is getting Helms off the payroll. Helms is scheduled to make $2.15 Million this year. If the Phillies could get him off their payroll, they may have money to sign another free-agent- *cough cough* Kyle Lohse *cough cough* Armando Benitez. Then again, considering the Phillies' spending patterns, they could just pocket the money rather than use it towards winning a championship.

Projected 2008 Opening Day Roster (6th Edition)

2008-03-06T11:03:00.002-05:00

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
SP Adam Eaton
LRP Chad Durbin
LRP Francisco Rosario
SU Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
CP Tom Gordon
-- Brad Lidge*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Greg Dobbs
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

*Injured, but not on Disabled List

Notes:

It remains to be seem whether Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms will be on the Opening Day roster. Having both is a very unlikely proposition, and would likely only happen if either of them are traded, or if Eric Bruntlett was sent down to AAA. The Phillies are unlikely to opt to have more than five bench players (five are shown here). At the moment, it looks like a toss-up between the two.
Brad Lidge will probably not be fully ready for opening day (although it's looking like he might rush himself out of excitement), meaning that Tom Gordon will move from set-up man to interim closer.
I wouldn't say Fransico Rosario is anywhere close to a definite; there will be a lot of competition for a bullpen spot or two, and there are a lot of contenders
Adam Eaton will probably be on a short leash. Expect Kris Benson (once he's healthy) and Chad Durbin to be next in line for that rotation spot. Shane Youman and Travis Blackley are also options.
I like what I've seen from Joe Savery during Spring Training. A bit further down the road this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phillies give him a shot in the rotation, a la Kyle Kendrick.
Kyle Lohse would be a huge boost, and his value has decreased from about 4 years $40 Million to 1 year $4 Million (another player screwed by agent Scott Boras). Still, the Phillies don't want to spend any more money. Lohse would be a huge boost to the rotation, and I fail to see why they won't take such an incredible bargain.

Power Rankings- Week of 2/25

2008-02-28T09:41:00.000-05:00

It's been a while since the last rankings, coming later than usual in the week, as I've been very busy. Here are my official, pre-spring training power-rankings...

National League:

1 (1) Mets- Lost their first Spring Training game yesterday, while the Phillies won. Frivolous, maybe, but it's not a great start for the Mets, coming off their collapse.
2 (3) Dodgers
3 (4) Padres
4 (2) Phillies- It's no surprise that an overexcited, oft-injured closer Brad Lidge hurt his knee pitching during Spring Training a few days back. In his absence, which could extend past opening day, the Phillies will likely have to move Tom Gordon to closer. Lidge's injury also raises the question of whether he can remain healthy this season which is key as Lidge is the keystone of the Phillies pitching staff. He has blamed his lackluster 2006 and 2007 campaigns on lingering injuries (rather than the Albert Pujols home run in the 2005 NLCS), making one wonder if 2008 will be any different.
5 ) Rockies
6) Diamondbacks
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals
11) Astros
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Signing OF Luis Gonzalez gives them veteran leadership, but I doubt Gonzo will have much of a short-term effect.

American League

1) Red Sox- Signed SP Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, to a minor-league deal. Sounds like the ideal sleeper pick to me...
2) Yankees- Added 3B/IF Morgan Ensberg earlier in the month. He could make a run at their First Base position currently looking to be filled by Shelley Duncan or Jason Giambi
3) Angels- CP Francisco Rodriguez, aka K-Rod, wants out of Anaheim- ehem, Los Angeles- after this year, due to some sour contract talks and an arbitration hearing. He's making $10 Million this year.
4) Indians
5 (6) Mariners- Their addition of SP Erik Bedard pushes them past the Tigers. Look for the Mariners, along with the Tigers and Indians, to be pretty much the only teams that will give a real challenge to the Red Sox or Yankees (whoever is in second in the AL East) in the Wild Card race
6 (5) Tigers- Ticket sales have been extremely successful for the club, probably due to the excitement over their acquisition of 3B Miguel Cabrera and SP Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins.
7) Blue Jays- Apparently new Blue Jay 3B Scott Rolen would have been open to being traded to the Phillies. The reality here is that the fans hate him; and it seems to be an awful coincidence that his interest in returning rises during the off-season after we won the division crown.
8) White Sox- The White Sox are stuck in the AL cellar that has proven almost as inescapable as a black hole, but they're poking their head out. Things look to be on the rise for the Sox, who two years after winning a world series, finished 72-90 last year.
9) Twins- Johan Santana is gone, but the Twins still have are in what I like to call AL Purgatory. They still have some falling to do before they drop into the fiery abyss below them.
10) Athletics- Signed semi-retired closer Keith Foulke to a one-year deal. Foulke signed with the Indians last year, but retired before opening day. You may remember him as the pitcher who pitched the last out in the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
11) Rangers
12 (13) Rays- Barry Bonds could be on his way to Tampa Bay. Bonds would likely be a distraction during the season, but then again, what is there to distract them from?
13 (12) Orioles- Trading away SP Erik Bedard moves the Orioles even deeper into the AL cellar. With so many washed up has-beens on the team, however, I think the O's could make some splashes if they play their cards right
13 (14) Royals

Lidge Out, Myers Moves to the Pen

2008-02-24T18:33:00.003-05:00

Brad Lidge sustained an injury when he caught a spike in the pitcher's mound over the weekend. It has now been discovered that he damaged his meniscus, and will miss 3-6 weeks. Mitch Williams said on Comcast Sports Net that 6 weeks seems very unlikely, so that's good news.

This leaves the Phillies with a Brett Myers dilemna. It is unclear whether Myers will return to his closer role, or if Tom Gordon or another reliever will take over. Williams recommends the latter, and I agree with that. Let Myers stay in the rotation, so he can have some stability this year. I think Gordon will close, with Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero doing set-up.

Maybe the Phillies will be smart and try to get Kyle Lohse. Due to Scott Boras trying to oversell him, the demand for Lohse has dropped so greatly, that some think he may only get a minor-league deal. Quite a far cry from four years, $30 Million.

Lidge's injury is the sports gods just kicking Philly while it's down. The Flyers losing streak and loss of Simon Gagne for the season and Mike Richards for three weeks was already unbearable.

When it rains at the sports complex, it pours...

Phillies Sign Kris Benson

2008-02-13T18:11:00.001-05:00

After watching him throw outside his Atlanta home, the Phillies inked oft-injured pitcher Kris Benson to a minor-league deal. Benson still has some rehabbing to do, and as a result will probably not be ready by opening day.

The Same Old Story

2008-02-13T09:07:00.000-05:00

We all know the Phillies are the most consistently dissapointing team in sports history. Sure, you may have forgotten the fact that lost more than 10,000 games. Even worse, in ironic fashion, we've managed to be among a very select teams to put together a winning record each of the past five years. That's actually would be a good thing... except for the fact that we've only made the playoffs once, despite our lowest winning percentage over that span being .524 in 2006.

We were constantly tortured with playoff aspirations, to the point that virtually nobody truly believed in the Phillies in 2007 until Brett Myers struck out Willy Mo Pena to clinch the division title. Oh, and getting swept in the NLDS? Never happened. It was just a bad dream. The Phillies won the NL East, but in many fans' minds, the playoffs were irrelevant, because now, we have hope.

Despite our new faith in the Phillies, they are still mostly the same team as last year. If they weren't, you would surely see them at #1 in my power rankings. Instead, despite the fact that their lineup has three of the very best players in the National League, and the fact that managed to win a title last year with the same lineup doesn't seem to carry the weight it would for any other team.

In 2007 we managed to overcome the powerful Mets and get the 2nd seed in the National League despite almost every one of our players being injured at some point. Need a very brief refresher?

Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
Freddy Garcia: 6/8-End of Season
John Lieber: 6/20-End of Season
Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
Ryan Madson: 7/29-End Of Season

Unfortunately, the skepticism surrounding Philadelphia's teams has always caused everyone from the casual fan to the senior reporter to come to expect something to go wrong. As injuries go, the Phillies, as they stand, would have massive problems if one of their key pitchers goes down. We were so comfortable with our pitching last year that we had a 6-man rotation at one point. Look at what we ended up with. If it weren't for Kyle Kendrick, who knows what would have happened to us.

Speaking of Kendrick, we also have to worry about the formidable "sophmore curse", which involves a skilled second-year player transitioning from "beginners luck" into taking on a regular role on a team. This curse isn't superstitious at all- it's a real problem that comes about more often that you may think.

Now, as if Kendrick isn't worrisome enough, look at the rest of our rotation. Cole Hamels has been on and off the DL for years, for reasons ranging from breaking his arm to getting in bar fights. Jamie Moyer is so old he could drop dead any second (although so does Brett Favre). Brett Myers was 0-3 as a starter last year. Adam Eaton still has to recover from an injury that hurt him a lot last year. Also, if Kyle Lohse comes back (an unlikely prospect), don't forget he had a losing record last year. And now, with the Mets' addition of Johan Santana, things could get even uglier for the Phillies.

A "Blast" From the Past

2008-02-08T15:10:00.000-05:00

When the Phillies won the NL East last year, the echoes of doubters calling the Phillies a "Choke Team", one that will never win the big game, finally subsided. That day put a bit of hope in all of us, because even though the 24-year-old "Curse of Billy Penn" had not oficially subsided, we all began to believe in Philly's sports teams. The integral part of the curse, our doubt, is gone, and although unofficially so, I believe that curse is, in essence, as good as history. But to remind everyone of how terrible the curse once was, I've posted this article- one of many over the years that provided false hope that the Phillies were the team to beat.

Just remember as you read it the three events that ended the curse:

Jimmy Rollins says the Phillies are the team-to-beat
Four-Game Sweep of the Mets on August 30th
Capturing the NL East title

One final note: to those of you say the Rockies series proves we're still cursed, or who will say we're still cursed if Rollin's prediction of winning 100 games being a game too high, you can all take your pessimism and walk over to Lincoln Financial Field. You don't win them all, even if you aren't cursed. Nobody's perfect, but that doesn't mean that everyone is cursed.

*My reaction is placed after the article*

Five reasons to pick the Phillies

By Jayson Stark of ESPN.com
Updated: September 16, 2003

Of course, the Phillies are going to win the wild card and go on to the National League playoffs. They have no choice. It's their destiny.

One last stand at the Vet? It could be a house of horrors for Florida.
It's the Law of the 3.

As far back as anybody can remember -- as long as the anybodys in question can't remember back to the 1970s -- the Phillies always go to the playoffs in years ending in a "3." They're required to, by law. The Law of the 3.

In 1993, they went from last place the year before to the World Series. In 1983, they were only two games over .500 on Labor Day, then rallied improbably to go to the World Series. And now it's 2003. So what choice do they have? They have to win. It's the law. But just for the heck of it, here are five other reasons:

1. Experience- True, the Phillies have made a lot more visits to Pat's Steaks over the last 20 years than they've made to the playoffs. Nevertheless, 12 current Phillies have appeared in a postseason series, vs. eight Marlins. And of those 12 Phillies, 10 play a prominent role of some kind or other.

Jim Thome and Placido Polanco are regulars. So is David Bell, who could be back for the final week. Kevin Millwood fronts the rotation. And five Phillies relievers have postseason experience. Only the backup catchers -- Todd Pratt and Kelly Stinnett -- are irregulars. And Pratt, who is available to pinch-hit, once hit an extra-inning home run that won a playoff series, for the 1999 Mets.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have just two everyday players who have batted in a postseason game -- Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Conine. Of the other six, only Todd Hollandworth has more than 101 at-bats or a dozen innings pitched as a Marlin. And isn't it supposed to be that big-game experience that shows up at times like this?

2. Jim Thome- What Barry Bonds is to the Giants, Thome is to the Phillies ... except Thome's teammates actually like him.

Thome is already the first Phillie in two decades to hit 40 homers in a season. He's about to become the third Phillie in the last 48 years to drive in 120 runs (joining only Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski). He owns 17 postseason home runs -- which are 17 more than all the Marlins combined (and tied with Bernie Williams for the most among active players). Thome's career postseason home run ratio (one every 12.5 plate appearances) is second only to Babe Ruth (10.8).

But most important, says one scout, "he's a big-game player. He'll be the best player on the field every night. Players like him rise to the occasion in these games." If he does, that'll be OK with the Phillies. They're 27-8 when he homers. And the Marlins' rotation and bullpen are both heavily right-handed.

3. Left-right offensive balance- Speaking of Thome, he has hit 35 more home runs this year than all of the Marlins' left-handed hitters combined. Yep, the Fish have hit exactly five left-handed homers all season -- and one of them was by Dontrelle Willis. (Three were by Hollandsworth and one by Juan Pierre.)

So it's no surprise that the Phillies are 16 games over .500 (70-54) in games started by a right-hander, while the Marlins are only four games over (59-55). The Phillies bat .262 against right-handers and .264 against left-handers, while the Marlins' splits are .260-.288.

And guess which hand all three Phillies starting pitchers will throw the baseball with in their three games in Philadelphia this week? That would be the right hand. And best we can tell, the Marlins will face only three left-handed starters (against whom they're 24-11) the rest of the season.

4. The Vet- The not-exactly-beloved Veterans Stadium doesn't have long to live now: Two more weeks, unless the playoffs stop by. Well, Camden Yards, it isn't. Pac Bell, it isn't. Heck, Stade Olympique, it isn't. There's a good chance nobody in baseball, football or any other activity known to man will miss it. But the Phillies will.

They just finished their most torturous schedule stretch of the year: 27 games in 27 days in seven different cities. Only a week of that marathon was spent at home. But now, of their remaining 13 games, the Phillies play 10 of them at the Vet. And at the Vet, the Phillies are 16-4 since July 29, and 11-1 since Aug. 13.

Since their only loss was to the Red Sox on Labor Day, they haven't lost to a National League team at home in more than a month. After the Marlins leave, the Cincinnati/Louisville Reds visit for three. After a day off, the Phillies play three in Florida, then close up the Vet with three emotional games against Atlanta.

As the Vet's life span dwindles, the crowds will grow, the memories will flow, and the passion will reverberate. And the Phillies have fed off that all year. Since their home-opener loss to the Pirates, they're 13-4 at home in front of crowds over 35,000. Of course, Florida swept them at home in July. But the Marlins haven't won in Pennsylvania since. OK, so they haven't played in Philadelphia since, either. But they did get swept in Pittsburgh last month.

5. The Eagles-In some cities, maybe it wouldn't be a good thing for the local baseball team to have the local football team start its season playing more like Louisiana-Lafayette than like the next Super Bowl champ. But in Philadelphia, life is different.

In Philadelphia, the Eagles' crummy start just means people get nastier and angrier and more frantic than usual. So they can either spend the next two weeks snarling at the Eagles, or they can turn to other stuff.

The Phillies could very well be that other stuff, especially if they keep winning, and the entire city isn't washed into the sea by a hurricane. In a city desperate to win something, anything, the Phillies have a chance to capture the hearts of a wounded public, replace that Eagle-induced pain with a road-to-October joy and send the Vet to the dynamite crew with a special triumphant glow.

Then again, they could also go 0-12, finish fourth in the NL East and force all the suicide hotlines to go to 24-hour operation. But this is supposed to be the Why-Good-Stuff-Will-Happen-to-the-Phillies section of this package. So forget you just read that last sentence. Or else.

------

After reading this article, you probably think I am insane to say we aren't cursed any more. High expectations seem to be the norm in Philadelphia, and so does dissapointment. However, if you remember, nobody in Philly ever really believed in the Phillies, and 2003 was no exception. However, I think that our NL East title last year changed everything. The fact that we now believe in the Phillies means that the curse is no longer valid, but rather as good as dead.

Whew, That Was Close

2008-02-07T15:20:00.000-05:00

The Boston Herald is reporting that Curt Schilling has sustained a torn rotator cuff, the origin of which is unknown, as is the time when the injury occured. Schilling may miss the entire season if he needs surgery, and given his age, such an injury might result in Schilling calling it quits.

Despire Schilling's close ties to Philadelphia and the Phillies' organization, there is no doubt that Pat Gillick is breathing a sigh of unexpected relief. Early in the off-season, it looked as if the Phillies were going to sign Schilling. The Sox are trying to void Schilling's $8 million dollar contract that they reached with him back in November, but picture what would have happened had the Phillies signed him. Brett Myers would likely still be the closer since Brad Lidge would have never been acquired, and the Phillies wouldn't have had the money to spend on Pedro Feliz, or maybe even Geoff Jenkins. Things would have taken the usual Phillies'-turn-for-the-worse, but it seems we've got lady luck on our side this time, leaving this fan saying, "What Curse?"

"Projected" 2009 Roster

2008-02-06T09:01:00.000-05:00

We're coming up on the final week before Spring Training 2008... but it's never too early to think about 2009. With that in mind, I present to you the Phillies projected 2009 25-man roster...

SP Cole Hamels (L)
SP Brett Myers
SP Curt Schilling
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Clay Condrey
MRP Mike Zagurski (L)
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Brian Fuentes (L)
CP Joe Nathan
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Pedro Feliz
3B Greg Dobbs
CF Shane Victorino
LF Milton Bradley
RF Geoff Jenkins
OF T.J. Bohn
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Jason Jamarillo

Interest in Odalis Perez

2008-02-04T10:09:00.000-05:00

The Phillies have expressed interest in lefty starter Odalis Perez, watching him work out in the Dominican Republic. Perez will likely be competing with Kris Benson for a minor-league deal, but a decision would probably only occur after the Phillies watch Benson throw again sometime in the next week. Since a Kyle Lohse signing seems unlikely (although I feel otherwise) due to payroll concerns, and the Mets' interest, it is looking like the Phillies will move forward with their current roster, and maybe Perez or Benson.

Zolecki: Lohse Signing Unlikely

2008-02-02T20:21:00.000-05:00

According to Inquirer Writer Todd Zolecki, a signing of Kyle Lohse is, in fact, unlikely. According to assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., the chances were "fairly low.

This isn't all that suprising given the fact that the Mets still seem interested in the righty after their trade for Johan Santana. In my mind, I'd give a deal about a 20% chance of working out.

Expect the Phillies to more actively pursue Kris Benson now that talks with Lohse are stalled.

Hot Stove Update

2008-02-01T12:41:00.000-05:00

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:

Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.

Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

2008-01-31T12:25:00.000-05:00

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.

Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Power Rankings- Week of 1/28

2008-01-30T19:20:00.000-05:00

It's been four weeks since the last rankings, largely because of the hot stove cooling off a bit. Enjoy...

National League:

1 (6) Mets- The Mets' signing of SP Johan Santana helps them reclaim a slight advantage over their division rival, and chief competition, the Phillies. The NL East is really too close to call, but it looks as if the Mets may have the upper hand.
2 (5) Phillies- Signing 3B Pedro Feliz was a good move for the Phillies, but one would wonder why the Phillies have done little to adress their "main goal" of "pitching, pitching, pitching". The best they're hoping for right now is SP Kyle Lohse. Ruben Amaro Jr. has been offering more promises than usual, and hopefully Pat Gillick and he will fulfill them.
3 (1) Dodgers
4 (2) Padres
5 (3) Rockies
6 (5) Diamondbacks
7) Braves- Traded for OF Mark Kotsay
8) Cubs- Signed former Phillie SP Jon Lieber
9) Brewers- Signed OF Mike Cameron
10) Cardinals- Sent former Phillie 3B Scott Rolen to the Jays for 3B Troy Glaus
11) Astros- SP Roger Clemens could end up back in Houston. I'm not sure if that's a positive or not.
12) Giants
13) Nationals- C Paul Lo Duca will be out until the middle of Spring Training so the Nats signed former Phillie C Johnny Estrada just in case.
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Aren't keen to the idea of acquiring C/DH Mike Piazza, who wants to play for them and would probably be a good influence. This would require the Marlins to actually be slightly better this year, and that's what the Marlins seem to want to avoid

American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- The Yankees seem to be out of the Santana race at this point.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Rumors about a possible trade for the Orioles' SP Erik Bedard have been spreading like wildfire. It's not clear whether a deal with happen or not; false reports of one were made by MLB.com and a lot of other sources earlier this week.
7) Blue Jays- Traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen
8) White Sox
9) Twins
10) Athletics- Fans don't want OF Barry Bonds, but he's still a possibility
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Still trying to work out a deal to trade Erik Bedard
13) Rays- Signed OF Cliff Floyd
14) Royals- Signed SP Brett Tomko

Mets Get Santana

2008-01-29T20:57:00.001-05:00

The Mets have made a tentative deal with Johan Santana, which looks to be a 6-year deal. Needless to say, this will have major implications on this year's pennant race, and pennant races for years to come. The Phillies are likely to put up bad numbers against lefties to start with.

Something good does come out of this. It looks like we're the only team in the race for Kyle Lohse, so it's likely that we'll sign him. He should be a Phillie again within the next two weeks.

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

2008-01-29T08:46:00.000-05:00

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Phillies Reportedly Sign Feliz

2008-01-28T17:13:00.000-05:00

ESPN.com, and the Phillies official website report that the Phillies have agreed to a two-year pact with free-agent Third Baseman Pedro Feliz.

This deal doesn't come as a suprise to anyone, and leaves the Phillies with one of the best rosters in baseball. Feliz is a .253 batter, with 20 homers and 72 RBIs. It's a far cry from the Mike Lowell deal that almost went down, but Feliz is the best Third Baseman still on the market.

I applaud this move, if and only if the Phillies still plan on acquiring another reliable pitcher. I feel like our third base situation has been made to look like worse than it actually is, and that the Phillies aren't doing enough to actively pursue pitchers.

Then again, what does anybody know when it comes to Pat Gillick. Maybe Sammy Sosa could even be next, with his .328 average against lefties, since Gillick seems to keep making broken promises about signing pitchers.

Lidge Trade

2008-01-26T13:19:00.000-05:00

Let me preface by saying I have never been a big fan of the concept of a closing pitcher. To get a genuine closer- one that has the lights-out pitches that they use to shut teams down in the ninth inning- such as Mariano Rivera, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, or Eric Gagne you generally need to spend a lot of money. Using another pitcher as a closer (i.e. Brett Myers), one who can't deliver those killer pitches, sort of defeats the purpose of the role.

That role, in my opinion, is very often not worth the $7-8 Million dollars a year Gagne and Percival got this off-season, or the $15 Million a year Rivera is getting. To me, one upgraded inning over maybe a third of your games isn't worth it. Closers are posterboys; a closer is the guy who the catcher picks up and bear hugs when a championship is one. Their blazing fastballs draw the awe of fans and make a team look strong when they win the game. However, it's just one inning (albeit in almost a third of your games), and there's a lot you could do for your rotation or your lineup with that kind of money.

Brad Lidge is ranked 13th in MLB.com's current fantasy rankings for closers, despite coming off a mediocre, injury-plagued 2007 season. Until giving up the game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, Lidge was one of the top closers in baseball. Since then, he hasn't been so great, but the Phillies are hoping that Lidge's new start in Philadelphia will help him move on. If he does so, he can regain his confidence and hopefully begin to dominate batters in the 9th inning just as well as he once did, back in 2004 and 2005.

Lidge is up for salary arbitration. In 2007 he earned $5.35 Million, part of a one-year deal, and I suspect his earnings will be around that after arbitration. Lidge is a risk, but he's going to be a free agent after this season, meaning if he fails to meet expectations we can be done with him after one year. If he has a stellar year, though, it's possible he won't re-sign with the Phillies, and go where the best contract offer is (similarly to Aaron Rowand).

Now, despite my skepticism over the importance of a closer, I think adding Lidge was a great move for Pat Gillick to make (although I wish more moves had followed). We gave up little to get Lidge. Michael Bourn's speed and contributions to outfield depth were easily replaced with So Taguchi and Chris Snelling. Geoff Geary did fill a long-relief mode that was huge to the Phillies in September, but it's unclear if he'll continue be that good in 2008.

The reason Lidge is so vital to the Phillies is the simple fact that our bullpen is absolutely terrible. We need a strong closer to shave off that ninth inning in key games, because our bullpen is thin on talent. As a result, that one inning- given our bullpen's ERA- will more often then not cost us a run. With Lidge hopefully giving us solid 9th inning outings when needed, and Tom Gordon working at set-up man in the 8th , we’re left with fewer innings where we’re stuck with our weaker relievers. Meanwhile, Brett Myers can fill a major hole in the rotation, where hopefully he’ll be effective despite having to re-adjust after a season in the bullpen.

Is this an improvement over last year’s pitching staff? Possibly. I’m not sure if I’d rather have Myers starting and Lidge closing than Kyle Lohse starting, Geary relieving, and Myers closing, but given the amount Lohse would cost us if we re-signed him, I don’t think pursuing him is really an option. Lohse also has a career losing record, and he also had a losing record in 2007, despite his good run with the Phillies. Signing another free-agent starter was also a possibility, but this move is a higher-risk, potentially more rewarding move.

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2008-01-23T14:42:00.000-05:00

Lidge and Madson Sign, Avoiding Arbitration

2008-01-18T12:41:00.001-05:00

Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson both signed one-year deals with the Phillies yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Lidge will get $6.35 million, and Madson $1.4 million. These figures are about what both of these guys would have gotten through arbitration, but it's always healthy to avoid the arbitration process.

The only players left on the arbitration list are Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies' current payroll is about $85 million, and after these two arbitration hearings my guess is that the payroll will jump to about $100 million- about $5 million more than last season- if not more. That would likely mean that the Phillies have room for one more big free-agent signing. At this point, it looks like the top candidates 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Kris Benson, and SP Kyle Lohse. Expect the Phillies to wait until right before spring training before making an offer, in an effort to be able to give a lower offer than they would now. Lohse would be the best candidate, especially if the Mets sign Johan Santana, but Scott Boras can be tough to deal with.

NOTE: Sorry, my math was terribly mistaken. The payroll shouldn't go any higher tht $95 million, last years mark, so possibly two notable signings will be made

Still In the Running for Lohse

2008-01-14T12:53:00.000-05:00

Despite the Phillies claiming they were out of the running for Kyle Lohse, they are actually in the running for him (gee, haven't we seen this sort of thing before?). Lohse backed off his demand for a four-year contract, and now wants three and a vesting option. In an online chat last week, Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies are still talking to Scott Boras about a possible deal (at least unlike Pat Gillick, Amaro doesn't have his head... well at least one of them is showing initiative.

Personally, I feel a four-year deal offer would definitely be too long considering it was based solely on Lohse's late-season success. Now that it's three years, I'd probably go for it. There is a weak market for free-agent pitchers now, and Lohse is arguably the best out of all of them. Signing Lohse would allow Chad Durbin to pitch out of the bullpen, and would leave the Phillies with five reliable starters (Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, and Lohse), and Adam Eaton when he's healthy again. The added starting pitching depth is crucial, and probably the best move the Phillies could make at this point. You can't contend for a title with a shaky rotation.

Don't count out other starters on the market, such as Kris Benson either. The Phillies are probably going to wait another month or so to see what happens with Benson. If he's still available, the Phillies may be able to make him a lower offer than they could now.

Ruben Amaro Answers Questions From Fans Online

2008-01-11T15:16:00.000-05:00

Minutes ago, Assistant General Manager Ruben Amaro answered questions from fans in a Phillies.com chat. Here are some notable tidbits of information from his answers:

Amaro believes pitchers Scott Mathieson and Josh Outman are the farm-team players most likely to end up on the Phillies this year.
He thinks the bullpen will be strong, if the rotation stays healthy
The Phillies are unlikely to re-sign Jose Mesa
He says the lineup is unlikely to change between now and training camp
The Phillies are unlikely to sign Bartolo Colon due to reservations about his health
The Phillies are still having "continued discussions" with Scott Boras over possibly re-signing Kyle Lohse
The Phillies aren't interested in Josh Fogg

The Bullpen in '08

2008-01-09T22:43:00.000-05:00

The Phillies search for a free-agent starter ended with the signing of journeyman free-agent, former Tigers pitcher Chad Durbin. The signing of Durbin has made it clear that the Phillies intend for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, indefinitely vacated by Adam Eaton’s injury, with one of many unlikely candidates, including Durbin, from within the organization- at least until we are sure if Eaton will be our fifth man in the rotation down the stretch. With the lineup more than adequate, the one place the Phillies have yet to focus on this off-season is the bullpen.
As the Phillies displayed last season in their search for a starter to fill an ailing rotation, they are willing to throw prospect after prospect on the mound until they find the right guy. They eventually settled in with Kyle Kendrick, and what they got was a 10-4 Rookie of the Year candidate who saved the rotation from certain doom. During the first few weeks of the season, and later if an injury occurs to a starter, expect the Phillies to throw guy after guy out there again.

Meanwhile, also similarly to last season, these two-dozen-or-so mediocre pitchers, prospects and journeymen alike, will make up a large part of the Phillies bullpen. Expect the Phillies AAA Pitching staff, relievers, and the fifth spot in the rotation, to be one giant mixing pot.

We know that the Phillies core group of relievers is as follows:

MRP J.C. Romero (Left-Handed Pitcher)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge

Here is the Phillies "Official" Bullpen Depth Chart (from their website):
B. Lidge (CL), T. Gordon, J. Romero, R. Madson, S. Mathieson, C. Condrey, M. Zagurski, F. Rosario, C. Durbin

Here is CBS Sportsline's Depth Chart for Starters:

C. Hamels, B. Myers, J. Moyer, A. Eaton, K. Kendrick, C. Carrasco, J Durbin, C. Durbin, S. Mathieson, T. Blackley, J. Outman, J. Savery

Here is CBS Sportsline's Bullpen Depth Chart:
B. Lidge, T. Gordon, R. Madson, J. Romero, F. A. Rosario, C. Condrey, F. Castro, J. Ennis, M. Zagurski, S. Youman, L. Holdzkom, Y. Hernandez, V. Darensbourg, K. Wilson, J. Anderson, M. Childers, J. Pope, R. Swindle, R. Chiavacci, G. Knotts, B. Mazone

Seem like a lot to take in? I'm going to assume the answer is yes, considering I haven't heard of nearly a third of those guys. It's interesting how the CBS Sportsline one puts Eaton before Kendrick, and Chad Durbin is seventh. It's a reminder of how weak our bullpen is when we see Brad Lidge, who was mediocre in 2007 at best, as our top guy in the pen. Undoubtedly we'll be relying a lot on starters like the Durbins.

While everything except the top four spots in the rotation, the set-up man, and closer is very unclear at this point, I've compiled my own bullpen depth chart. I'm not going to make one for starting pitching, since who can and may start beyond Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Kendrick is very unclear at this point. Here is my organization depth chart for the bullpen (although it doesn't go that deep into the organization), which for all intents and purposes counts everyone except those four, Eaton (who is unlikely to pitch out of the bullpen at all at least for the first couple months of the season) Lidge, and Gordon, as long-or-middle-relievers, not starters or closers.

J.C. Romero
Ryan Madson
J.D. Durbin
Clay Condrey
Chad Durbin
Shane Youman
Scott Mathieson
Fabio Castro
Francisco Rosario
Travis Blackley
Carlos Carrasco
Lincoln Holdzkom
John Ennis
Matt Zagurski
Josh Outman
Joe Savery

Granted this list may have a slight shortage of veterans or any sort of potential rookie-of-the-year candidates, but this list contains the guys the Phillies are hoping at least one of which will step up and follow in the footsteps of Kyle Kendrick. Now, it may take a heck of a lot of scouting, and maybe 3-10 games down the drain to find the right guy- that is, if we ever find the right guy.

A lot of the young guys in here may get a chance on the 40-man roster, especially down the stretch. Otherwise, expect maybe 6 or 7 of the above guys in the pen.

These guys definitely create one of the most makeshift bullpens we've seen for a long time. Maybe this roll of the dice will result in a bullpen better that last year, or maybe it will be even worse- something this fan doesn't even want to think about.

Jayson Werth Re-Signed

2008-01-08T14:43:00.000-05:00

Outfielder Jayson Werth, who as a backup and platoon right-fielder hit .298 this season, was signed to a 1-year, $1.7 Million dollar contract, avoiding arbitration. This figure seems about what he'd get from arbitration, maybe a bit less considering Werth's often-underlooked batting average from last season. Werth will probably be a part of a platoon in right-field with Geoff Jenkins, although Jenkins will probably recieve more playing time.

Power Rankings- Week of 1/7

2008-01-07T10:11:00.000-05:00

National League:

1) Dodgers
2) Rockies-
3) Padres- Signed Mark Prior to a 1-year deal worth $1 Million with another $4.5 Million in incentives. Good signing- cheap, albeit risky given Prior's health woes.
4) Diamondbacks
5) Phillies- Traded speedy outfielder Chris Roberson for cash. Is this cheap penny-pinching, or gathering money for a future deal? The answer to this question will certainly effect where the Phillies rank come Spring Training.
6) Mets
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals- Signed starter Matt Clement, who is just coming off a shoulder surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2007 season.
11) Astros- Added versatile reliever Oscar Villarreal and old-news outfielder Darin Erstad. Ed Wade is making a lot of moves, but it's hard to see if they were the right ones. The Astros could be a contender or one of the worst teams in the league depending on how Wade's deals work out for them.
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
?????? Marlins

American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- Hank Steinbrenner says Roger Clemens will not be returning to the Yankees this season.
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- In a distant third in the race for Johan Santana, but are pretty much out at this point.
7) Blue Jays
8 (10) White Sox- Picking up Nick Swisher from the Athletics pushes the Sox back the Twins.

9 (9) Twins- Still in limbo due to the uncertainty surrounding whether or not Santana will be traded. If it happens, the Twins will likely plunge into the league cellar, unless the players they recieve end up having a spectacular 2008 season.

10 (8) Athletics- Traded Swisher to the White Sox for prospects, and now their interest has dropped in Barry Bonds (although he's still on their radar). It seems the A's are making like the Marlins and thrusting themselves the the league cellar in hopes of a better future. Expect them to make more moves towards that end.
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Traded cash to the Phillies for Chris Roberson.
13) Rays
14) Royals- Signed catcher Miguel Olivio to a one-year deal.

Projected 2008 Roster, 4th Edition

2008-01-03T10:10:00.000-05:00

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

Players who could be next in line (noted with their usual position) :
-From the 40-Man Roster: SP Scott Mathieson, RP Matt Zagurski (L), LRP/SP Shane Youman (L), LRP John Ennis, SP Travis Blackley (L), MRP Fabrio Castro (L), C Jason Jaramillo, 2B Brad Harman, OF Chris Snelling, and OF T.J. Bohn
-Not on Current Roster: SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman (L), SP Joe Savery (L), and C Pete LaForest
LaForest was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley recently.
Chris Roberson was traded yesterday to the Orioles for cash. Hopefully that cash goes towards a big-name pitcher such as Bob Wickman or Bartolo Colon, but for the time being that looks unlikely. It seems more likely that the Phillies will do as they did last season and wait until the trade deadline.
If Adam Eaton is at-or-near 100%, expect him to be the fifth man in the rotation. If not, expect the Phillies to start the season with Chad Durbin in that position. However, the Phillies may try out some alternative options, especially if Eaton will be out for more than a few weeks. The Phillies are preparing for this by having 24 pitchers on their 40-man roster and 7 non-roster invitees, at least one of which the Phillies hope will be another Kyle Kendrick.
Beyond Chad Durbin and Eaton, the Phillies could end up experimenting with some of the following pitchers (or even other pitchers not yet in the running) for the fifth spot in the rotation, depending on who does a good job of showing their stuff during spring training (the list is conviniently ordered from most to least likely): J.D. Durbin, Youman, Blackley, Mathieson, Carrasco, Ennis, Outman, Savery.
If Eaton won’t be starting, expect him to be on the disabled list until he’s at-or-near 100%. At that time he’ll probably do some rehab assignments, make a relief appearance or two, and come back into the rotation. How fast all this happens depends how desperate the Phillies are to have him back. It is also a possibility that, like Jon Lieber, or John Smoltz (okay, maybe not the fairest comparison), Eaton could end up pitching in the bullpen when he returns.

Roberson to the Orioles

2008-01-02T17:24:00.000-05:00

The Phillies sent outfielder Chris Roberson to the Orioles today for cash considerations. The 28-year-old Roberson hit .286 in 28 at bats over 28 games last season. My gut tells me that the Phillies are trying to open up some cap room for a big acquisition, but my brain is telling me this is likely just penny-pinching. Roberson brought speed and depth to the outfield and the lineup, and I hope that this move leads to something better.

In other news, catcher Pete LaForest has been sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley. Not much of a suprise here.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ROTATION??? / Pat Gillick Makes Brett Myers Cry at Night

2007-12-29T15:17:00.000-05:00

In the last installment of the "What Happened to The Phillies" / "%#(@ You Pat Gillick" we examined the Phillies' new closer, Brad Lidge. Now, we will follow our former closer, Brett Myers, along his exile back to the rotation. Since the Phillies failed to sign any sort of reliable starter, Brett Myers is forced to become the #2 man in the rotation, which he is very unhappy with...

"I'm upset," Myers said Thursday, "not with the Phillies, because I understand the situation. I'm upset because I think I really found myself and my role this year as a closer. I know, because I've been told that I'm best suited to be a closer."

"I understand what's going on, and I understand that for this team, me going back to being a starter is the move to make," Myers said. "I definitely like closing more. I like having the ball in my hands four or five days [a week]. The only thing I don't like in starting is, I may go nuts those four days in between getting the ball."
...
Said Myers: "There are positives in this. I think I've proven myself as a closer and as a starter. If the time comes and I'm on the market as a free agent, instead of two teams needing a starter and two needing a closer, I can make myself available as both to 30 teams.
"This doesn't mean I'm unhappy in Philly. I love the team. I love the fans. But from a personal standpoint, this certainly can help me in the long run."

Source: The News Journal

Needless to say, Brett Myers looks like a very unhappy man :(

Moving Myers to the starting rotation was a Plan-C type move that Gillick, despite him and Charlie Manuel continuously denying any chance of Myers moving out of the closer role. Now, Myers cries himself to sleep at night over Pat Gillick, while Brad Lidge does the same over Albert Pujols. It's okay Brett, Gillick doesn't only lie to you. He told us that he was going to spend big bucks on pitching a day before he offered over $35 Million to Mike Lowell.

It also worries me that the only positive Myers now sees in this move is that it will be easier for him to get out of Philadelphia, given that as recently as a few months ago it looked like Myers could have a great, happy future with the Phils.

All this results in the following rotation:

Cole Hamels
Brett Myers
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Peter Forsberg

As you can clearly see, I have absolutely no idea who will be filling the fifth spot in the rotation. Here are some candidates...

Adam Eaton: Eaton had a terrible 2007 due to a shoulder injury, and likely will not be 100% by opening day. When he's back to full strength, he will likely be back in the rotation.

Travis Blackley: The Rule 5 Draft pick is unlikely to have the stuff needed to start in 2008, and will likely be stuck in the back end of the bullpen or in the minors, but given the hole Pat Gillick has dug us into, I wouldn't be suprised to see him squeeze into the rotation.

Chad Durbin: His $900,000 contract is all he deserves. He is a journeyman pitcher who is unlikely to do much better than J.D. Durbin did last season, and a couple months ago there were hopes the Phillies would sign a bigger-name pitcher. At one point, it even looked like instead of Durbin we would sign Kyle Lohse and Curt Schilling. So much for that.

Beyond that, it is very unclear as to who will get that fifth spot. There are over a dozen candidates, prospect and journeyman alike, but nobody with stuff anywhere close to what Kyle Lohse brought.

I don't want to even imagine what happens if one of our solid starters goes down. We got lucky with Kyle Kendrick, but that's unlikely to happen again.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BULLPEN??? / The Sad Story of Brad Lidge

2007-12-28T19:10:00.001-05:00

In part one of our potentially infinitely-parted series "What Happened to the Phillies" (aka "!$%# You Pat Gillick") we'll examine the ways the Phillies have gone from being poised to build a championship team back in November, to actually making the team worse this off-season despite a reported cap increase of $10-$15 Million. And of course, we will start with the greatest weakness our team had in 2007- pitching.

If you're a Phillies fan, and you think back to what you were doing last summer, you'll probably remember screaming at the image of Adam Eaton on your television screen, as he looked over his shoulder at another long ball he just dished out. Oh, you don't? My mistake, it could have also been Jose Mesa, Antonia Alfonseca, J.D. Durbin, Freddy Garcia, or pretty much any of the Phillies' pitchers. Alas, despite our generally abysmal bullpen, there was one true gem in there- Brett Myers. Everyone, including the coaches, Pat Gillick, and Myers himself, was very pleased with his performance as closer.

Taking all that into account, Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel said repeatedly that Myers would remain the closer. Apparently they were just kidding, because Gillick went ahead and traded for a replacement for Myers, Brad Lidge. In the process, they gave up young outfielder Michael Bourn, prospect Mike Constanzo, and reliever Geoff Geary. Geary had a great September and was part of the core of strong relievers that led the Phillies down the stretch, so Lidge must have been worth more than him, right? I mean, we gave up a couple young guns, and a decent middle reliever so we could replace our newfound closer.

Brad Lidge came to pitch for the Astros in 2002 as a middle-reliever (and even started a game where he batted 2 for 2 with 2 RBI's). With Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel traded by mid-2004, he became their closer. When that season ended, Lidge, his up-to-102 mph meatball, and his 29 saves were voted 8th in the Cy Young voting, and he set a new NL record for strikeouts by a reliever with a whopping 157. In 2005, Lidge was an all-star (in the all-star game he struck out the side and nobody even made contact on his pitches) and 30th in MVP voting with 42 saves and a 2.29 ERA, undoubtedly playing a big role in helping the Astros edge out the Phillies by one game in the wild card race. In that postseason, he helped lead the Astros to the NLCS in 2005, where they faced the Cardinals. In Game 5 in Houston, Lidge faced Albert Pujols with the Astros up by two. There were two runners on, and Albert Pujols was batting as the go-ahead run- and Pujols jacked him up, hitting the ball pretty much the farthest it could possibly go in a roofed stadium.

The Astros survived and later won game 6, sending them to the World Series. In game 2, Lidge gave up a walk-off homer to the White Sox' Scott Podsednik. Needless to say, Albert Pujols' shot hit Lidge right in the heart, and since that incident, Lidge has been nothing more than a mediocre closer- or at least a lesser one than Brett Myers. Lidge even lost his role periodically in 2007, before tossing 10+ scoreless innings to regain the role, finishing the season 19 of 27 in save attempts.

Lidge is excited about his new role with the Phillies, and Phillies fans are hoping that Lidge can overcome his emotional trauma and reclaim his role as one of the top closers in baseball. If he does so, trading for him will have been a great move. If he doesn't, and Pat Gillick doesn't have a backup plan for Lidge, the Phillies will be in deep trouble, because the only other remotely-solid relievers they have left behind Lidge are Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero.

Otherwise, Pat Gillick is rolling the dice on a dozen or so prospects, as he was forced to do last season when the great injury plague hit the Phillies. Needless to say that this is extremely dicey, and very likely to fully compensate for the bullpen's shortfalls, especially if Lidge doesn't produce.

The bottom line right now is that the Phillies' bullpen's future is very unclear. Pat Gillick is just praying that some of the young pitchers step up. It's unlikely to work, and at this point, it looks like the bullpen has thrown out it's up-and-coming, delighted new closer Brett Myers, forcing him angrily into his old job as a #1 or #2 starter, and replaced him with a broken man rehabbing from getting owned by Albert Pujols.

Power Rankings- Week of 12/24

2007-12-26T20:42:00.000-05:00

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers
2 (2) Rockies- Signed 8-2 reliever Luis Vizcaino
3 (4) Padres
4 (5) Diamondbacks
5 (3) Phillies- After signing Geoff Jenkins, Chad Durbin, and So Taguchi, it looks unlikely that the Phillies will make any more moves. Should they end up doing so, they should drop a bit further down. Dissapointment in Pat Gillick is rampant. At this point, it looks like the Phillies are hoping that one or more of their many pitching prospects will step up to fill the fifth spot in the rotation or help in the bullpen.
6 (6) Mets
7 (7) Braves
8 (8) Cubs
9 (9) Brewers
10 (10) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros
12 (12) Giants
13 (13) Nationals
14 (14) Reds
15 (15) Pirates
????? (19) Marlins- The Dolphins won a game! For the Marlins, that should be a tough act to follow.

American League

1) Red Sox- They have reclaimed the title as the front-runner for Johan Santana.
2) Yankees- Still have a chance with Santana.
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Signed Carlos Silva
7) Blue Jays
8) Athletics
9) Twins
10) White Sox- Signed outfielder and Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Will probably hold on to starter Erik Bedard, but the Phillies don't really have a chance with him anyway at this point.
13) Rays
14) Royals

Phillies Sign So Taguchi

2007-12-23T15:58:00.001-05:00

The Phillies signed outfielder So Taguchi to a one year deal valued around $1 million, with a team option for 2009.

The Phillies have done a lot of replacing of their players this off-season. Here's a simple rundown of the big replacements...

Tadahito Iguchi > So Taguchi
Geoff Geary & Brett Myers > Brad Lidge
Mike Costanzo & Michael Bourn > Eric Bruntlett
Kyle Lohse > Chad Durbin & Brett Myers
Aaron Rowand > Geoff Jenkins

Worrisome? Yes, considering the fact that we presumably had more cap room to work with this season than last season, we should have a better roster, not a worse one. Hopefully this squad will manage to improve on last year's; this greatly depends on the contributions of Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, the bullpen, whoever the fifth starter is, and last but not least, avoiding any major injuries to starting pitchers- unless we have another surprise rookie sensation such as Kyle Kendrick come along again.

Phillies to Play at Ironpigs' Inaugrual Game

2007-12-22T09:22:00.000-05:00

The first game for the Phillies' new AAA Affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, will be an exhibition against the Phillies at the IronPigs' Coca-Cola Park at 2:05 on Sunday, March 30. It is rare for the Phillies to play their minor league affiliates these days, and this is a great way to open the new park and to see the Phillies take on their top farm team. The game will be broadcast on the CW Philly.

In other Ironpigs news, a couple of weeks ago they had to rename their mascot from "PorkChop" to "Ferrous" (a name relating to iron), because "Porkchop" is a duragatory term used towards Asian and Portugese People. The fact that we have to change such an adorable name, one thought up by a five-year-old none the less, to be slightly more politically correct, just shows the times we live in.

Phillies Introduce Chad Durbin... and Geoff Jenkins

2007-12-20T21:46:00.001-05:00

The Phillies made Chad Durbin official today, and Geoff Jenkins was announced as a free-agent signing as well. Two years, $13 Million for Jenkins- a bit more than I would have allocated for a guy who's not even going to be an everyday outfielder. Instead of that, he will probably share his time with Jayson Werth. Durbin's deal is one year, $900,000

Update From Pat Gillick

2007-12-20T08:12:00.000-05:00

Last night, according to the Phillies' official site, Gillick confirmed interest in Geoff Jenkins, but said that the team is no longer pursuing Mike Cameron or Kyle Lohse. No official word on the reported signing of Chad Durbin.

Another Durbin?

2007-12-19T21:13:00.000-05:00

According to mlbtraderumors.com, the Phillies have added Chad Durbin to their pitching staff, signing the Free Agent second-rate. This hasn't been made official yet by the Phillies, or their site.

I hope he isn't the fifth guy in the rotation, because frankly, I'm not wild about another Durbin.

Projected 2008 Roster, 3rd Edition

2007-12-19T08:50:00.000-05:00

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kris Benson*
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Ryan Madson
MRP Fabrio Castro
MRP Clay Condrey
RP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Mike Cameron*
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

Pat Gillick raised the possibility of trading prospects for pitching a couple weeks back. This could bring Mike Mussina or another older pitcher to the Phillies.
If Mike Cameron isn't signed, Geoff Jenkins
It's unlikely that Adam Eaton will start the year in the rotation, as he is still rehabbing his arm. When he is back to full strength he will hopefully and probably pitch a lot better than he did in 2007. The Phillies will meanwhile try to obtain another pitcher to help fill his spot, many who are coming off injuries. Free-Agent Kris Benson is the front-runner, but an offer has reportedly been made to Kyle Lohse, who would be a better option . Fabrio Castro and J.D. Durbin seem to be the front-runners for replacing Eaton if a new player doesn't, or taking over if a starter goes down. Rule 5 draft-pick Travis Blackley is also an option. In general, at this point, it looks like the more probable alternative is looking at a bunch of guys during Spring Training and hoping that one of them looks good enough to enter the rotation.
If Eaton goes to the minors, or to the disabled list, a reliever will probably come up to take his place on the roster (not in the rotation).
The Phillies have a very large amount of pitching talent down in the minors, and it's probable that with or without an injury, some new faces will show up in the bullpen. It's anyone's guess who that will be.
The bullpen looks to be a bit dicey, as the Phillies have a lot of prospects and journeymen lined up to vie for a spot in the bullpen, and besides closer Brad Lidge, Set-Up man Tom Gordon, and J.C Romero, talent in the pen is sparse.
It's not probable that Kris Benson will join the team, but there is still a good chance that he will. The Phillies are hoping for support in the outfield as well as at third.

Power Rankings- Week of 12/17

2007-12-17T10:19:00.000-05:00

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers- The signing of Hideki Kuroda will just make the best team in the league even better.
2 (2) Rockies- LaTroy Hawkins' signing with the Yankees weakens the bullpen, but if the Rockies bullpen continues to play like they did in September and October, they'll have little to worry about.
3 (3) Phillies- Pat Gillick is apparently hibernating this winter. By the time he wakes up for spring, the Fightins could be unimproved from 2007, and drop a few places here. Hopefully, he'll wake up and make a deal for Mike Cameron or Geoff Jenkins, and/or a worthwhile pitcher.
4 (5) Padres- Added now former Phillie Tadahito Iguchi, and Jim Edmonds.
5 (7) Diamondbacks- Jose Valverde is gone, but the addition of the 2007 AL All-Star Starter Dan Haren pulls the Diamondbacks into the top 5.
6 (4) Mets
7 (6) Braves
8 (10) Cubs- The big signing of Kosuke Fukudome pushes the Cubs to the top of the NL Central, just ahead of the Brewers.
9 (8) Brewers- The Brewers just signed closer Eric Gagne to a 1 year, $10 Million deal (I guess even I had underestimated his market value. They're gambling that Gagne will bounce back after a surprisingly bad run as the set-up man for the Red Sox, and now he's been mentioned in the Mitchell Report.
10 (9) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros- Two days after trading Miguel Tejada, Ed Wade wakes up from him shame-nap to find Tejada mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Ineffectual, maybe, but doesn't this make you wonder if Ed Wade was the one who was cursed, not the Phillies?
12 (14) Giants- Aaron Rowand finds a new home there. Maybe his influence will be a little bit better than that which Barry Bonds had, but I don't think he was worth the money considering that the Giants aren't going to be making any championship runs any time soon, and he cost them a lot.
13 (12) Nationals
14 (15) Reds
15 (16) Pirates
17 (unranked)- Sacramento RiverCats
18 (unranked)- Oregon State Beavers
19 (13) Marlins- After trading away Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are now so incredibly bad that they are now ranked 18th... despite the fact that there are only 16 teams in the National League. When your highest paid player is Kevin Gregg, you either have Jesus himself negotiating your contracts, or your just plain suck.

American League

1) Red Sox- Johan Santana could still be on the way, although he's reportedly going to want around $140 Million for 7 years. Imagine Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield as your starting rotation, and then realize you are not dreaming or watching the all-star game, that this could soon be a reality. Sox are #1 by leaps and bounds. Conspiracy theorists are going crazy over how the Sox are not mentioned in the report, given that George Mitchell is on the Sox board of directors.
2) Yankees- Adding LaTroy Hawkins to an otherwise weak bullpen (especially given the fact that this is the Yankees) was a good move. They're also talking with Santana now.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5 (6) Tigers
6 (5) Mariners
7) Blue Jays- Recently added SS David Eckstein
8) Athletics- Dealing Dan Haren definetely has an effect on the teams' potency, but they don't drop them too far into the land of non-contender AL teams. Perhaps the possible addition of Barry Bonds could end up being a suprise blessing for the A's.
9) Twins- If they lose Santana they will drop, but for now the Twins will stay put.
10) White Sox
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Trading Miguel Tejada was a good move, sacrificing a good current player for a brighter future. Fortunately for them, they'd have to lose a lot more than him to drop to the cellar of the American League where the Rays and Royals are stuck.
13) Rays
14) Royals

Interest in Jenkins Confirmed

2007-12-15T12:06:00.000-05:00

There have been rumors of the Phillies having interest in Geoff Jenkins, and an article about that interest has been put on the Phillies Website. Jenkins would be the replacement for Aaron Rowand, and would hopefully bring experience to the team and some power back to the outfield. Jenkins is not a Free Agent, so a trade would have to be made. The Padres recently cut off ties with Mike Cameron, but acquired Jim Edmonds from the Cardinals late last night.

Rowand Gone

2007-12-13T10:56:00.000-05:00

Aaron Rowand signed a $60 Million, 5 year deal with the Giants. Why the Giants spent that much over 5 years- a period during which they are very unlikely to contend- is beyond me. It's too bad that we lost him, but hopefully this will be an opportunity for Pat Gillick to get off his bum and use the money elsewhere.

Mike Mussina

2007-12-11T12:53:00.000-05:00

According to Bob Matthews of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, the Phillies have mild interest in the Yankees' Mike Mussina. Currently, the Yankees depth chart of starting pictching is looking as follows:

Chien Ming Wang
Andy Pettite
Phillip Hughes
Joba Chamberlain
Mike Mussina
Ian Kennedy

There are a lot of things in play here. The Yanks could possibly go to a six-man rotation, in order to give their youngsters work as well as their experienced pitchers. Johan Santana ending up in New York is still slightly possible, but unlikely. It's also possible that Joba Chamberlain could remain in the bullpen (which is probably the weakest spot on the Yankees team), but at this point it seems more likely that he'll start. If the Phillies can put together a good deal for Mussina, an area native, the Yankees may be willing to deal.

And for your reading pleasure, I've offered some possible ideas for trades that could bring Mussina here (I didn't really explore possible minor league players up for trade, as that sort of a deal would be very hard to predict):

Shane Victorino for Mike Mussina and Shelley Duncan
Adam Eaton for Melky Cabrera and Mike Mussina
Adam Eaton and Jayson Werth for Mike Mussina and Bobby Abreu
Prospects for Mussina
Adam Eaton for Mike Mussina and Kyle Farnsworth
Pat Burrell for Johnny Damon and Mike Mussina
Pat Burrell and Prospects for Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina

Here are the team needs:

The Phillies could use Mussina in the back of the rotation if Eaton is out or if someone else goes down, and could also use another right-fielder, center-fielder, or third baseman. The Yankees could offer Melky Cabrera in a deal, or even gool ol' Bobby Abreu if the Phillies include fielders such as Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino, or the rehabbing Adam Eaton.

The Yankees, as if they needed anything, probably wouldn't mind trading one of their older players (similar to Mussina) for young or rehabbing fielders or relievers, as they have enough depth to gamble on those guys. If the Yankees lose an outfielder, Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth may look attractive to them. Any of the many young pitchers the Phillies have could be added on to a trade. Beyond this, I'd never rule out Pat Burrell, despite his no-trade clause, due to the fact that the Yankees have the money to pay him, and it's unlikely Burrell would be completely against being traded to the Yankees.

Both teams could use help in the bullpen, so pitching prospects may play a key role in possible trade talks. Hopefully something with pan out.

Why Gillick Must Be Finalizing a Deal for Johan Santana

2007-12-06T15:14:00.000-05:00

Pat Gillick is the one of the most unpredictable general managers out there. After denying any interest in Mike Lowell, he nearly signs him to a huge contract close to $50 Million. Now, he hasn't signed any free agents since J.C. Romero, while the Phillies still have a very weak rotation, bullpen, and weak spots in the lineup at third base and in the outfield. Meanwhile, it seems that everyone who seemed to have interest in Johan Santana just dropped it. The Red Sox and Yankees opted out. No acquisitions for the Phillies, no apparent interest by any team anymore in Santana, and a very secretive, unpredictable general manager at the helm.

One can come to no other conclusion than that the Phillies should announce that they are trading Kyle Kendrick, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, and Prospects for Santana...

Okay, I am completely kidding here, but it is a wonder why Pat Gillick denied interest in a Third Baseman, yet almost went ahead and spent most of the team's remaining budget on Lowell. I personally hope that Gillick is keeping his motives secret, and that he is planning some big deals, because last I checked, our bullpen is even worse than last year at the moment, we have a severe lack in seasoned veterans that can lead the team, and our starting rotation is just waiting to be devastated with an injury.

Gillick said he did not want to "trade for the sake of trading", but c'mon Pat! Don't forget to do something before all the good deals have washed up.

Phillies Out on Kuroda

2007-12-06T12:30:00.001-05:00

The Phillies have dropped their pursuit of Hideki Kuroda, who it seems will only play for a west coast team. The Dodgers and Mariners are the front-runners. However, do not despair. The Phillies acquired pitchers Travis Blackley and Lincoln Holdzkom in the Rule 5 draft, and they hope Blackley may be able to vie for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Winter Meeting Update 1

2007-12-05T08:57:00.000-05:00

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis will be traded to the Tigers by the Marlins in exchange for 6 prospects, including Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.
The Royals are making moves: They've already signed Jose Guillen, and now Andruw Jones and Hideki Kuroda could be on their way to KC as well.
The Mariners recently offered Kuroda a 4-year, $45 Million dollar contract.
The Red Sox are currently the front-runners in acquiring Johan Santana from the Twins. Jacoby Ellsbury would likely be included in a trade for Santana.
According to MLBtraderumors.com, Ryan Howard and the Phillies will soon be sitting down to try to hammer out a long term deal. Howard is arbitration eligible.
The Phillies are reportedly NOT interested in Jon Lieber.
According to delawareonline, Pat Gillick said he'd be willing to trade one or two prospects for pitching. Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Josh Outman, and Adrian Cardenas are named as possibilities.
Also according to delawareonline, Charlie Manuel has concerns about the health of Bartolo Colon, and thus Kris Benson is on the top of the Phillies list when it comes to pitchers recovering from arm injuries.
delawareonline also says that the Mets are most interested in Livan Hernandez when it comes to pitchers. Hernandez is near the top of the Phillies list.
The Phillies are currently trying to work out a deal with Tadahito Iguchi that would move him to Third Base, solving one of the Phillies' major gaps in the lineup. However, it would require Iguchi getting a waiver from the commissioner's office, as he was previously released by the Phillies.
In an Interview with MLB.com, Pat Gillick discussed the Phillies' goals for the meetings. He said that the Phillies are: looking for a backup or "late-inning replacement" outfielder to replace Michael Bourn, keeping Aaron Rowand and Hideki Kuroda on the radar but are not close to siging him yet, and not in a rush to trade just for the sake of making trades.
The Blue Jays reportedly do not want to trade A.J. Burnett. He was on the back-end of possible pitchers for the Phillies to add earlier in the off-season

Power Rankings- Week of 12/3

2007-12-03T13:29:00.000-05:00

Here are my current, simple, power rankings for the 2008 season, based on my outlook for it now. Let me inform you now of one thing: Unlike normal reporters, I will NEVER pull any punches about my expectations for the Phillies. Whether I think they're more likely to lose or to win, I'm going to be honest. I hope to provide an honest criticism so when I do predict good things for the Phillies, I can be taken seriously. On that note, just because my prediction goes one way doesn't necessarily say I don't believe in them, nor does it mean you won't hear me yelling "The Phillies are going all the way this year!"

I will be focusing more on the National League, but I will rank the American League teams as well. I'll be ranking teams by league to give a larger picture than if I sorted by division, but I will keep the leagues separate, since it's extremely difficult to compare teams from the two different leagues. These rankings will be updated every week or so, and may change without anything happening, but because I don't do this for a living and sometimes overlook information. Enjoy...

National League:

1) Dodgers- They are already a skilled squad to begin with, but with Joe Torre as manager, possibly acting as a talent magnet, and Andruw Jones or Aaron Rowand on the way, things will just get better for the Dodgers.
2) Rockies- Sorry Phillies fans- the Rockies streak was not a fluke. The question is whether or not it will carry over. Still, whether hot or cold, you can not deny the plethora of talent the Rockies have.
3) Phillies- The Phillies could be #1 or down at the bottom; the question is if the Phillies of September 2007 show up, or the Phillies of the previous 10 years show up. If the young Phillies are really ready to play with the big boys, and the pitching staff is up to par, the Phillies will dominate the NL East and the National League as a whole.
4) Mets- The Phillies knocked the Mets to the ground with their four-game sweep in August, and their three-game sweep in September threw the Mets off the cliff. What happened to the Mets was more devastating than many people may imagine, and I have my doubts as to if the Mets will be able to control even just their division after the end of the 2007 season.
5) Padres- The Padres have been very good for a while now, but have had a lot of trouble getting to the top. Expect them to have a similar season to last year, but have more trouble with the strong Western division.
6) Braves- Tom Glavine in, Andruw Jones out. The Braves had a strong finish to an otherwise surprisingly sub-par 2007 season. Expect their strong play to carry over into '08 and expect for them to make a much stronger run at a division title.
7) Diamondbacks- Improvements need to made if they want to stay atop the NL, as many of the other top teams have gotten better. My guess is they won't be made on a large enough scale to keep the D-Backs at the top.
8) Brewers- With Jason Kendall joining the team from Chicago, and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder posed for another stellar season, the Brew Crew should vault themselves to the top of the central division.
9) Cardinals- The Cardinals 9-game losing streak in September cancelled out the strong push they were making. If they can shake that off they can be a front-runner in the Central division.
10) Cubs- The Cubs are looking similar to last year, but the Cardinals and Brewers should improve, making the 2007 NL Central Champion Cubs no longer the front-runner in that division.
11) Astros- Ed Wade's reputation here isn't too good, but he's making good moves out in Houston. If Aaron Rowand or another big name ends up there the Astros could improve a lot. Biggio is gone, so if Wade doesn't make any big acquisitions the Astros will have trouble being a contender.
12) Nationals- The Nationals showed the ability to nip at the heels of the Phillies and Mets towards the end of the 2007 season, and if this carries over the Nationals, who have a lot of potential, could be a lot better next season.
13) Marlins- With Miguel Cabrera likely on the way out, the Marlins should be even worse than last year. However, even more so than the Nationals, the Marlins really played well against the Mets and other top teams towards the end of the season.
14) Giants- Bonds is gone, but with or without him the Giants will struggle to stay afloat next year in the incredible NL West
15) Reds- There are rumors of a possible return of Griffey to Seattle, but nonetheless the Reds are pretty bad to start with.
16) Pirates- I almost forgot to write something here. Umm... Isn't Jeff Garcia playing for them now... crap that's football.

American League

1) Red Sox- The Red Sox have some great young players in Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, and the rest of their lineup, and their pitching staff- with Johan Santana possibly on the way- is absolutely ridiculous. My early, early pick for 2008 World Series Champions. A return to the postseason is almost certain.
2) Yankees- They showed in the beginning of the 2007 season that talent isn't enough to be dominant, and I expect the Yankees to go into a bit of a rebuilding year- which for the Yankees is essentially dropping them from being insanely stacked to being really stacked. Despite their issues, they're still the Yankees. Unless the Red Sox collapse or fall behind the Yankees, or there is a real challenge in the wild card race (an unlikely scenario), expect the Yankees to be... well... the Yankees. I think they will perform better than many think next season.
3) Angels- An already incredible team, with Jon Garland and Torii Hunter added might actually now have a chance at outplaying the Sox or Yankees. Their only competition in the west is the Mariners, but the competition is slight.
4) Indians- The last of the four really incredible teams, we saw in the ALCS how they can play in the big games, and in a weak AL Central division expect them to thrive.
5) Mariners- There are rumors that Hideki Kuroda and/or Ken Griffey Jr. could end up on this team. They had a good 2007 season, and in 2008 they could dominate the Angels' rear view mirror, or try to hopelessly chase towards the seemingly non-existent (even at this point) (in my opinion) AL wild-card race. Came within 6 games of it last year.
6) Tigers- Finished equal with the Mariners in the wild card, but that's much easier to do when you're in the AL Central. Come to think of it, the central division in both of the leagues are pretty weak.
7) Blue Jays- They were a far cry from a contender in 2007, and play in an extremely tough-to-win division, but if things go haywire in 2008 as they did in the NL in 2007 maybe, just maybe the Blue Jays can pounce.
8) Athletics- Dan Haren might be traded. From here down, none of the American League teams mentioned have a sufficiently legitimate chance at being contenders. That's the American league for you...
9) Twins- If they say farewell to Johan Santana, it's farewell to their contender dreams as well. Santana aside, it's unlikely the Twins will make a run at the playoffs.
10) White Sox- A shadow of their former selves, don't expect the White Sox to go anywhere in 2008. Especially after balking on Torii Hunter. Shouldn't have let Rowand go...
11) Rangers- With a pitching staff that has more holes than Swiss cheese, stick to the Rangers than play hockey.
12) Orioles- Melvin Mora may be on his way out, as he wants to play for a contender and is willing to waive his no-trade clause. There was a time when teams besides the Sox and Yanks in the AL East got to be in the drivers seat, but that won't be happening this year.
13) Rays- The Devils Rays- I mean, Rays of sunshine, have gotten a new name and logo that makes them look like a Single-A Team. Gee, how fitting...
14) Royals- Hello Jose Guillen, hello the only exciting thing that has or will happen for the Royals in years. Remember when they led their division? Uh huh, neither do I.

Player Updates

2007-12-03T12:59:00.000-05:00

Aaron Rowand: The Phillies offered him arbitration today, a small step towards keeping him, and a good one, as it assures the Phillies draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. He currently wants 5 years, $10-$12 million a season. The Dodgers were the top suitor, but an MLB.com report suggests that the Dodgers prefer Andruw Jones. After losing out on Torii Hunter, the White Sox showed interest, but they don't want to pay that much money. The Yankees might consider it if they traded Melky Cabrera.

Hideki Kuroda: Still a possibiliy, but he has said he wants to play on the West Coast. The Dodgers look like the best suitor here, although the Mariners and other teams have shown interest. Still, we still have an okay chance, especially if Rowand isn't signed.

Jon Lieber: The Phillies have shown interest along with the Astros.

Kyle Lohse: With the money he'll probably be looking for its unlikely he will return.

Melvin Mora: If Rowand is not signed, the Phillies may trade for the Orioles' Mora, who would waive his no-trade clause if he went to a winning team (interesting how we're on this end of this situation now after so many years of players like Scott Rolen and J.D. Drew leaving for a winning team). His contract is a hefty $8 million, so the Phillies would probably have to whiff on Rowand, Kuroda, and any other big names before they'd even consider trading for him. MLBtraderumors.com denies this interest, but anything can happen with Pat Gillick.

MLBtraderumors.com also reports that the Phillies have interest Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers, Livan Hernandez, Mark Prior, Shawn Chacon, Joe Kennedy, Brian Fuentes, and A.J. Burnett.

And Some bygones...

Troy Percival: Devil Rays, 2 Years, $8 million

Randy Wolf: Padres, $ 4 million

Mike Lowell: After denying interest in him, the Phillies made an offer that was barely beaten at the last second by the Red Sox. Let this serve as an example that Pat Gillick is very unpredictable.

My Advice: Sign Aaron Rowand unless a good offer is accepted by Kuroda, but even in that case I'd try to sign Rowand as well. A premier pitcher and veteran leader are both absolute necessities, and well worth the investment.

New... Well... Old Jersey

2007-12-03T09:16:00.000-05:00

The Phillies new alternate jersey isn't acutally new persay; it's just a 1948 throwback jersey, which seems to oddly resemble the current jersey, save the pinstripes. It will be worn on all home day games. I was hoping for something more creative, but it's good to have an alternate jersey nonetheless.

New Alternate Jersey to be Unveiled Today

2007-11-27T10:13:00.000-05:00

At 12:00PM, in less than two hours, the Phillies will be unveiling their new home alternate Jersey, the first alternate jersey they have had in a long time (if ever). New jerseys can bring more money, through merchandise sales, and many teams have played well in new jerseys. creating alternate jerseys is essentially an art in it's own respect, and many different styles have been used...

Many just change the color of another jersey...

New York Mets

Houston Astros

...but some choose to create a new alternate team logo, sometimes more colorful and creative than the official team logo...

Minnesota Wild

Nashville Predators

Boston Bruins

Edmonton Oilers (This one has many hidden features, such as the five heads of the gear representing the five Stanley Cups the team has won)

New York Rangers

...while some bring back old-school logos...

Buffalo Sabres

Toronto Maple Leafs

...or sometimes teams might stick with an all out throwback look...

Philadelphia Eagles (feel free to puke)

Washington Capitals

Jimmy Rollins Wins MVP!!!

2007-11-20T16:34:00.001-05:00

Totally deserving here. Rollins this year, as Howard did in 2006, proves that the Phillies have a strong core of truly valuable players that could lead them to a championship in 2008. Holliday almost had the triple crown (Prince Fielder being the spoiler in the Home Run category), but Rollins was more... well... valuable. Extra base hits, the stolen bases, hits, home runs- Rollins had the works. Notice how the Phillies also had three guys in the top 10, the only team to have multiple guys there.

The voting:
Jimmy Rollins- 353 Votes (16 1st Place Votes)
Matt Holliday- 336 (11)
Prince Fielder- 284 (5)
David Wright- 182
Ryan Howard- 112
Chipper Jones- 107
Jake Peavy-97
Chase Utley-89
Albert Pujols- 50
Hanley Ramirez- 49
...
Aaron Rowand- 3

Phillies Fall Just Short of Signing Mike Lowell

2007-11-20T11:22:00.000-05:00

After denying interest in signing any big name third-basemen, the Phillies reportedly made a 4-year, $50 Million dollar offer to Lowell, who wanted a four year deal, while the Red Sox had only offered him 3 years, $36 Million. However, after the Red Sox upped their offer to $37.5 Million, Lowell signed with the Sox.

I am suprised the Phillies went for a third baseman, or any position player, or a 4-year offer to any free agent, but Pat Gillick has been unpredictable. So close, yet so far- but this does bring around the possibility again of signing Aaron Rowand

Off-Season Schedule

2007-11-15T13:24:00.001-05:00

Can't Wait for the 2008 Season? Here's a rundown of the important dates for this off-season and the beginning of the 2008 Season...

Nov. 20, 2007: National League MVP Announced
Nov. 20, 2007: Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues
Nov. 28, 2007: Phillies Unveil new Home Alternate Jersey!

Dec. 1, 2007: Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation
Dec. 3-6, 2007: Winter Meetings, Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 6, 2007: Major League Rule 5 Draft
Dec. 7, 2007: Player deadline to accept salary arbitration
Dec. 12, 2007: Last date to tender contracts
Feb. 14, 2008: Spring Training Begins- first workout for pitchers & catchers
Feb. 19, 2008: First workout for infielders and outfielders
Feb. 26, 2008: Exhibition game vs. Florida State University
Feb. 27, 2008: Phillies' First Spring-Training game, at home against the Reds
Mar 25-26, 2008: Two Game MLB season opener in Japan, Red Sox vs. Athletics
Mar. 28-29, 2008: Phillies 2-Game Preseason Series, at home against the Blue Jays
Mar. 31, 2008: Phillies' Opening Day, at home against the Nationals

Philly Sports' Curse Reversed?

2007-11-14T08:53:00.000-05:00

If you were to mention the Phillies to anyone in Philadelphia, you would probably hear a tirade about how disappointing the Phillies were in the Playoffs. True, they didn't win a championship or a game. However, the Phillies did manage to do one thing: Put a major crack in the "Curse of Billy Penn" that has haunted Philadelphia sports since the construction of One Liberty Place over the statue of William Penn above city hall. And they did it "a la bambino"...

It was the night of August 30th, and the Mets were playing the Phillies, who were hoping for an unthinkable four-game sweep of the Mets. It was the bottom of the 9th inning, the Phillies down 10-9 after a disastrous 8th Inning. Billy Wagner, the overpowering, former Phillies' closer who left for more money was pitching. After a single, Jayson Werth, armed with scouting reports from his teammates on Wagner, stole two bases consecutively, ending up at third. With one out, Tadihito Iguchi slapped a single to score Werth. Iguchi then stole second himself, setting up an intentional walk to Jimmy Rollins and then Chase Utley came to the plate...

This unthinkable four-game sweep of the best team in the National League was a segway into an incredible September. The Phillies won their last eight games against the Mets, and proved all their critics wrong by winning the divison. Many would consider this was just dumb luck, as the Mets collapsed on their own. This is just plain incorrect.

The Phillies were instrumental in the Mets downfall. They hit the Mets hard on their first punch (the four-game August Sweep) setting themselves up to knock the Mets out on the second blow (September three-game sweep). Need proof?

Mets Before Four-Game Sweep: 73-59
Mets between four- and three-game sweeps: 10-3
Mets after three-game sweep: 5-12

The Phillies' August 30th victory was a far cry from a season-changing game, but the Red Sox broke their curse in a similar way. In game 4 of the ALCS, with their backs against the wall in the series, Dave Roberts' "Steal Heard Round the World"- when he stole a base by inches off Mariano Rivera after 3 near-pickoffs- put him in scoring position, setting up a Red Sox walk-off win. Despite the three unlikely wins they needed to get to win that series, and the fact that it wasn't even the world series, Roberts' steal is what many considered to be the event that broke the "Curse of the Bambino".

The Phillies may not have won a championship, and thus haven't completely broken Philly's curse, but there are undeniable similarities to the Red Sox in 2004. Besides, winning your division in baseball (especially if you would have won it if the pre-1995 divisions were in place) is much bigger than doing so in any other sport.

Finally, a reiteration from yesterday's entry: If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

If you still need proof to subdue your doubts, consider the injuries the Phillies had to deal with this season...

Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
Freddy Garcia: 6/8-Present
John Lieber: 6/20-Present
Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
Ryan Madson: 7/29-Present

Still think Philadelphia Sports are reeling from the "Curse of Billy Penn"? To tell you the truth, you wouldn't be a true Philadelphia sports fan if you ever did.

Could an Injury Cripple the Phillies in 2008?

2007-11-13T12:57:00.000-05:00

Here's the injury scenarios for position players:

Ryan Howard: Greg Dobbs would likely become the everyday 1st Baseman, leaving Wes Helms to play Third Base. Helms and Pete LaForest can also play 1st Base.
Chase Utley: Eric Bruntlett would become the everyday 2nd Baseman.
Jimmy Rollins: Bruntlett would become the everyday Shortstop.
Wes Helms: Greg Dobbs would become the sole starting Third Baseman.
Greg Dobbs: Helms would play Third, but since Dobbs can play a lot of positions, the Phillies would have a bit of a depth problem if another starter went down.
Pat Burrell: Jayson Werth moves to left, Shane Victorino to Center, and Chris Roberson plays right. It should be noted that Greg Dobbs can play Left Field.
Shane Victorino: Jayson Werth plays center, Roberson plays right, and Burrell plays left.
Jayson Werth: Roberson would become the everyday Right Fielder. Dobbs is also availalble.
Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, or Pete LaForest: If one of these guys go down, there are two of them left. However, if Ruiz went down for an extended period of time, the Phillies might search for a better catcher to be the everyday starter.
Chris Roberson or Eric Bruntlett: Both these guys are currently the only backups at two vital positions (LF/RF for Roberson, 2nd/SS for Bruntlett). Multiple backups may be needed to replace either of these guys, which could hurt the roster. It's anyone's guess who that would be. One possibility for outfield is T.J. Bohn, who was on the 40-man roster in 2007 but never played for the Phillies.

Now for the key pitchers. It should be noted that since the pitching rotation is unclear beyond Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, and probably Brett Myers, I am going to assume that a fifth starter will come around, be it most likely a Free Agent, or maybe Adam Eaton, J.D. Durbin, or a Prospect. I am going to call them "Pitcher X".

Cole Hamels: The unusual amount of pitching injuries and other big changes last year required major changes in the rotation. The only pitcher that would be alarming (in my mind) to lose is Cole Hamels. If he goes down for an extended period of time, the Phillies may try to trade for a pitcher (like they did with Lohse last year), or they might use Adam Eaton (if he hasn't been traded), J.D. Durbin, or a minor-league prospect (they got lucky last year in this exact situation with Kendrick. Some possible prospects are Josh Outman, J.A. Happ, John Ennis.
Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, or "Pitcher X": The same goes here as for Hamels, except it's less likely the Phillies will go outside the organization for a replacement.
Tom Gordon or J.C. Romero: While we aren't sure what the 2008 bullpen will look like, we can assume the loss of either of these guys would be pretty substantial. No special changes would really need to be made, but the Phillies may try to obtain an additional reliever from outside the organization. If the Phillies find themselves with six really able-bodied starters, Brett Myers may move back to the pen- but this could happen even if an injury didn't occur.
Brad Lidge: Romero and/or Gordon would probably take on the closing role, and the same thing may happen here with Myers as mentioned above.

Now, there's always the possibility of a doomsday scenario, where multiple (2, 3 or even more!)players go down, but that hasn't happened since 2007- Oh wait, that was last year, wasn't it? Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley- all of them vital (or at least expected to be vital) players on the team- went down for a while.

The losses of just a couple of these players would have been disasterous, let alone all eight of them over the course of the season, let alone for a team that's season was down the drain, let alone for the Phillies, and yet somehow a bunch of virtual nobodies- Geoff Geary, Kyle Kendrick, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, Jayson Werth- came on and did a spectacular job, leaving the virtually injury-free (who's that Freddy Garcia Guy?) Phillies poised to make a September run, one that ended up pulling them to the playoffs.

Final Analysis: The only thing to be worried about is making sure that our bullpen doesn't look like it's reeling from injuries when there actually aren't any injuries, which is the case right now. The Phillies' proved in 2007 that their organization has depth far beyond the 25-man roster they started with.

If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Liber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

Some News & Updates

2007-11-12T15:03:00.000-05:00

Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox is the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year, winning in a landslide with 132 points, besting Damon Young (Devil Rays) who had 56. Daisuke Matsuzaka only got 12 points putting him in fourth.
Ryan Braun won an extremely close race in the NL Rookie of the Year race with 128 points over Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies who had 126 votes. Coming in a very distant third is Hunter Pence (Astros) who had 15. The Phillies' own Kyle Kendrick came in fifth with 7 votes. Considering where the Phillies would be without his stellar performance coming out of AA, I'm suprised Kendrick did this poorly- although he was the only candidate other than Braun and Tulowitzki to get a second-place vote.
The Devil Rays unveiled their new logo and "new" team name. Now the name "Rays" refers to rays of sunlight and not marine animals. Their new logo looks like it's that of a Single-A team. How fitting...
As of today, Free Agents can negotiate with any team.
The AL Cy Young will be announced today. Josh Beckett, Chien-Ming Wang, and C.C. Sabathia are the front-runners. Beckett will almost certainly win.
Jorge Posada is reportedly being signed by the Yankees to a 4 Year, $52 Million contract.

Projected 2008 Roster, 2nd Edition

2007-11-09T14:11:00.000-05:00

SP Cole Hamels
SP Hideki Kuroda*
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
RP Tom Gordon
RP J.C. Romero
RP Ryan Madson
RP J.D. Durbin
RP Adam Eaton
RP Jeremy Affeldt*
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
SS Eric Bruntlett
LF Pat Burrell
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF Chris Roberson
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
C Pete LaForest

Notes:

In case you didn't know, J.C. Romero has been signed to a 3 year, $12 Million dollar contract with a $4.75 Million dollar option.
Jeremy Affeldt is a placeholder- if he’s not there, I’m guessing another free-agent pitcher will be.
Expect Chris Roberson and/or Pete LaForest to be the first to go in the likely event that the Phillies acquire somebody in a trade, add a prospect to the roster, add another pitcher, or add a more versatile utility player, etc. Roberson will not go unless an outfielder comes along- LaForest is more expendable.
Adam Eaton and/or J.D. Durbin will be the first pitchers to go (likely after LaForest or Roberson if a pitching prospect or free-agent pitcher gets added to the roster.
Adam Eaton is by far the most likely out of all these guys to get traded. Otherwise he may start but will more likely be sent to AAA or work out of the pen.
Hideki Kuroda is a placeholder of sorts, as I think one out of many different free-agent starting pitchers could be signed for the rotation.
In the likely event that one of the starters collapses, a prospect may find their way into the rotation, just like Kyle Kendrick did in 2007.
Brett Myers could still possibly remain in the bullpen if two starters are added to the roster, or if he bombs like he did in the beginning of 2007.
Players I don’t expect to see on this roster (less that 50% chance): Jeremy Affeldt, Hideki Koroda, and Pete LaForest.

Summary of Expected Off-Season Moves:

Acquire one (or two) relief pitchers
Acquire one (or two) starting pitcher
Note: two starters and a reliever could be acquired, allowing Brett Myers to stay in the bullpen

Phillies Off-Season Preview: Position Players

2007-11-08T14:24:00.000-05:00

It's safe to say that the Phillies lineup is going to be fine without any additions or re-signings this off-season. Barring any trades or any other unforeseen events, here is what the Phillies lineup would look like in 2008 if the Phillies did not sign or re-sign anybody this off-season (not shown in batting order)

1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms
C- Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Jayson Werth
RF- Shane Victorino

Bench:

Greg Dobbs (3B/1B/LF/RF) or Wes Helms (3B/1B)
Chris Roberson (LF/RF)
Pete LaForest (C/1B)
Chris Coste (C) or Carlos Ruiz (C)
Eric Bruntlett (2B/SS)

This lineup would certainly suffice. With Aaron Rowand gone there won't be as much depth and in this lineup and it's certainly less potent than last season , but given the improvements that should be made to pitching staff I'm not too worried. More importantly, Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse, and the loss of his influence might be a big problem for this young lineup. I also worry that as always with the Phillies, this lineup will be inconsistent and not able to perform game-after-game at the level needed to really be considered a championship contender.

Third Base has been considered a weak spot, as the offensive production from third base was nothing short of abysmal last season. However, Pat Gillick was quoted in the Daily News as saying he doesn't think anything but pitching will be addressed in the off-season...

"I don't know that [third base] is going to be addressed," Pat Gillick said as the annual general manager meetings got under way yesterday at the posh Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "We'll go with [Wes] Helms and [Greg] Dobbs. Because we're going to concentrate on pitching. If we go in any direction, we're going to concentrate on pitching... If we make a deal, it will be for pitching," the general manager said. "If we spend money, we'll spend it on pitching... If you improve your pitching, you don't have to have as much offense... You don't have to score as many runs if you don't let as many in."

This pretty much rules out the possible acquisition of any off-season improvements to the lineup. I agree fully with Gillick; this offense should be fine, despite the loss of Rowand. However, I wonder if the Phillies would have enough playoff experience as a team last year to be able to perform under playoff pressure in 2008, now having lost 2005 World Series Champions Tadihito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Freddy Garcia. Many of the seasoned veterans who were on the 2007 Phillies are now free-agents. This worries me a bit, but hopefully this issue can be adressed when Pat Gillick goes shopping for pitchers this off-season.

Huge Deal to Start the Off-Season

2007-11-08T10:12:00.001-05:00

The Phillies traded RP Geoff Geary, OF Michael Bourn, and minor league 3rd Baseman Mike Costanzo to the Astros for RP/CP Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett.

I will be frank, my reaction to this trade is not that good- it's a bit of a risky one. Geary had a great end to the 2007 season (although otherwise was quite below par), and Bourn likely has a great future ahead of him. Lidge only converted on 19/27 save opportunities, posting 3.36 ERA, although his pitching improved near the end of the season. I really hope the Phillies saw something in Lidge that I'm missing, because 19/27 save attempts is maybe not what I'd look for in a closer specifically. That being said, he could also be a set-up man to Myers if the Phillies so wish. However, according to MLB.com, Lidge will be the closer for the Phillies.

I would have probably shopped a bit more before making this trade. I know I said the Phillies shouldn't automatically make Myers their closer, but replacing him this fast seems a bit extreme on the other end of the spectrum. I think, though, that the Phillies haven't set Lidge being the closer in stone yet either- he could end up working out of the pen with Myers staying as the closer. If we're lucky here, Lidge may put up stats like he was a few years ago. Or, he could continue to have a bad save percentage, and put up an ERA of over 4.

With this trade the outfield has lost depth, but the infield has gained some.

Now, the Starting Rotation is looking like this:
Hamels, Myers, ???, Kendrick, Moyer

??? Could be anyone from Mark Prior to Matt Clement to Hideki Kuroda.

Next Move: Re-Sign J.C. Romero, go after a free-agent starter, and go after another free-agent reliever

Phillies Interested in Hideki Kuroda

2007-11-07T11:22:00.000-05:00

Daily News Article: http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20071107_Phillies_looking_at_Japanese_pitching_star.html
"We'll just keep looking," Pat Gillick said during the second day at the annual general manager meetings at the palatial Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "There's nothing we could do about it during this period [when Boston held exclusive negotiating rights]. If he had gotten out there, it might have been a different story."

This would be a wise move for the Phillies, given the success of many Japanese players in the

My Question Featured on Phillies' Mailbag

2007-11-07T09:42:00.000-05:00

Who do you see as the closer in 2008?-- Ben L., Cheltenham, Pa.
Unless the Phillies acquire Francisco Cordero or someone of that ilk, I'll stick with Brett Myers. The right-hander prefers closing, and the team has said publicly that they are planning to use Myers in that role.

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292283&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

Seems like Mandel's in agreement with me.

2 Gold Gloves!

2007-11-06T18:25:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand on their 2007 Gold Glove Awards!

So Much for Schilling

2007-11-06T11:56:00.000-05:00

From MLB.Com:

Curt Schilling and the Red Sox appear ready to announce a one-year deal with incentives to return him to Boston for one final season. ESPN.com reported on Tuesday that Schilling and the team have reached agreement on an $8 million base salary with an additional $2 million in incentives. The deal is pending a physical on the right-hander, who will turn 41 on Nov. 14.

After Writing farewell letters to his teammates just one week ago, it appears Curt Schilling has had a change of heart, and will in all likelihood will be returning to the Red Sox in 2008. This is tough news, as Schilling's experience would have been a huge boost to the Phillies.

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

2007-11-05T20:28:00.000-05:00

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.

4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.

The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

2007-11-05T13:31:00.000-05:00

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia

Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”

There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.

Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.

Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.

My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect

Saying Goodbye to Freddy Garcia

2007-11-04T21:46:00.000-05:00

Remember Freddy Garcia? His removal from the pitching rotation back in June was a symbolic restarting point for the Phillies. Yet somehow, the impossibility of the Phillies turning a disaster around and making the playoffs happened. Thanks to Kyle Kendrick and Company, Freddy Garcia is not a scapegoat (as many would have expected), but instead a forgotten memory.

Yet he isn't worthless. He isn't another big-name player turned bad in Philadelphia. themselves. Garcia was plagued by shoulder soreness this season even before he left the rotation. His stuff was not what we had hoped because of it. Pat Gillick was smart enough to sign him only for a year in case something like this happened. Despite the pros of not having to pay him $8-10 million to play 2008, Freddy Garcia may be back with his old stuff next season. 2007 was a bad, injury plagued year for him. We've moved on, and he has too...

I'm just glad I can say "Happy trails" to him than "!%($ You, Freddy!" (something I'm sure you Eagles fans have already had to say once...)

The Closer in '08: Brett Myers?

2007-11-02T18:29:00.001-04:00

Constantly the Phillies have said that Myers will be the closer in 2008, but this happening has never been taken as any sort of near certainty. We all know that there are plenty of Free Agent closers out there, and that there is also a need for Myers in the starting rotation. The fact is, we don’t know where Myers will be at his strongest. He could remain the closer, and the Phillies could spend their money elsewhere. Myers may even evolve into one of the best closers in baseball if we’re lucky. We could also move him back to the rotation and sign a new closer. Or, he could become a middle or long reliever.

His stats don’t give us that good of an idea of where he’s strongest:

In Brett Myers' career as a starter (2002-2006, 1st 3 games of 2007), he has put up these stats: 143 Games, 54-41, 868.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 306 BB, 708 SO, .329 OBP
In 2006 specifically, Myers put up these stats: 31 Games, 12-7, 198.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 189 SO, OBA .257
Myers began the 2007 season 0-2, allowing 16 runs in 15.1 innings of work over 3 starts.
On April 18th, due to Myers’ struggles, he was moved to the bullpen. He made his first start as a Middle Reliever/Set-Up Man. Over his 8 games (between 4/18 and 5/1) in this role, he put up impressive stats:
0-0, 8.1 IP, 1 Run, 13 SO, 3 BB, OBA .324
On May 3rd, with closer Tom Gordon injured, Myers took over the closer role. He was out of the lineup
due to injury from 5/23-7/28. He did okay (especially for a new closer) before the injury. After the injury shared he sometimes shared the closing role with Tom Gordon, and he had some rough games in his first couple weeks back, but settled down after that. Along with the rest of the team, he played well down the stretch. From May 3rd until the end of the regular season, Myers put up these stats: 5-5, 40 Games, 21/24 Saves, 45.0 IP, 16 Runs, 14 BB, 51 SO, 3.20 ERA, .210 OBA.

Myers has done slightly better out of the bullpen, which is why the Phillies want to keep him there. He’s a big guy that is developing a good fastball that would tire him out as a starter.
Right now, the Phillies have two holes in their starting rotation: the empty spot left by new free-agent Kyle Lohse, and Adam Eaton (I am not even kidding here). Now, the Phillies have prospects that could fill in one of the spots, and there’s always Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin. The Phillies are also going to look for starters.

Now, assuming that Pat Gillick is half as smart as I think he is, he will be able to adequately complete the starting rotation with or without Myers. So, Myers will probably only be removed as a closer if a better (or much better, depending on willing the Phillies are to move Myers) replacement is found. Many closers can also make good middle relievers- and it's often easy to tell which ones can- meaning the Phillies have some flexibility.

And for your reading pleasure, I conjured up a list of 5 candidates that could possibly replace Myers as the closer…

Eric Gagne: He had a tough run with Boston, but that doesn’t reflect on his skill as a closer: He was the 2003 Cy Young winner. After injury plagued 2005 and 2006 seasons, he played well in 2007 as the Rangers’ closer, but was traded to the Red Sox. In Boston, playing as a middle-reliever rather than a closer, he imploded, having a 6.75 ERA over 20 Games. The likely explanation is that Gagne specializes in closing, and can’t be an effective middle-reliever.

If would be a huge risk signing Gagne. It’s possible that his implosion hurt his skill as a closer- for this reason his market value has dropped from his $6,000,000 2007 salary. If he turns out to close like he did before his implosion, he would be a huge acquisition, and the Phillies would get a lot of bang for their buck. It’s also possible he would be another Freddy Garcia.

It’s not certain whether Pat Gillick will even look into Gagne. Gagne many not be the kind of player the Phillies would want to sign to take over for Myers. However, I think Gagne should definitely be looked into. Right now, according to the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have a mutual interest in him, so he may be gone before the Phillies really get a chance to consider him.

Troy Percival: Having just come out of three injury-plagued season, and retirement, the Phillies probably won’t go for Percival. However, while he’s a risk similar to Gagne, Percival came out of retirement and played his first MLB game back on June 29th, yet still managed to post a 1.80 ERA in 40.0 IP over 34 games in 2007. Not too shabby…

Mariano Rivera: Things have changed a lot here. It was thought by many (including me) that Rivera might leave the Yankees if Torre left. However, Rivera has applauded the hiring of Joe Girardi, and is saying he wants to retire in pinstripes. Also, the Yankees are planning to move Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, meaning they will probably re-sign Rivera. It doesn’t look like Rivera will really be testing the market, although it’s still possible. If he did, the Phillies would likely make him an offer.

Francisco Cordero: Closer for the Brewers in 2006. He was 2.98 ERA, 44/51 saves in 2007, similar to previous years. He’s been talked about by many in the media as a possible closer. He’s had some rough spots in the past few years, though.

Bob Wickman: Wickman is unlikely to re-sign with Arizona, his team at the end of 2007. He has had a lot of good and bad seasons, and has a lot of experience as a closer. His ERA has been around 3.5 recently, and he dropped his ERA a lot over the last two months of the 2007 season. He could play a role similar to Tom Gordon, as a set-up man, or replace Myers as closer, giving the Phillies options. He would probably be a better closer than Gordon, though. I’m not sure if the Phillies think he’s a good enough closer to be signed to replace Myers. However, everybody loves a 240 pound meatballing reliever…

My Choice: Gagne- If we can get him for a good price, we should take him. If he ends up pulling a Freddy Garcia, we can move Myers back and put someone new in the rotation. I think there's a better chance Gagne ends up having his old stuff, in which case we score big.

Probable Phillies' Choice: Nobody- The Phillies are to weary of their (and other Philly teams') past when it comes to big-name acquisitions to take a risk on any of these 5 hit-or-miss guys, or anybody other than Myers. They'll go for a couple starters, most likely Lohse and Schilling, although anybody could end up being signed.

2008 Projected Roster

2007-11-01T21:44:00.000-04:00

SP Curt Schilling*
SP Cole Hamels
SP Brett Myers
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Kyle Kendrick
LRP Ryan Madson
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Geoff Geary
MRP J.C. Romero*
MRP Tom Gordon
MRP Antonio Alfonseca*
MRP Clay Condrey
CP Mariano Rivera*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
1B/3B Wes Helms
1B/3B Greg Dobbs
IF Abraham Nunez*
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
LF/RF Michael Bourn
LF Pat Burrell
RF/CF Shane Victorino
RF/LF Jayson Werth

*Player currently Free Agent

Notes:
-Mariano Rivera is a sort of placeholder. I don’t think there’s that high of a chance that he will end up on the Phillies. However, it is my belief that the Phillies will either sign starter Kyle Lohse, closers Mariano Rivera, or Francisco Cordero, or another skilled pitcher. Rivera is only my best guess. If a closer is signed, Myers will probably move back to the starting rotation, although I think Myers would be best suited as a long reliever.

-Schilling and Romero I would consider Free-Agents that have over a 50/50 chance of being Phillies in 2008.

-The Phillies have a plethora of starting pitchers in their farm system to fill in if one of their starters is struggling. To name a few: Kyle Drabeck, Josh Outman, John Ennis, and Adam Eaton. Out of these guys, Outman in particular may find his way into the majors later in the season.

-Speaking of Eaton, if Myers stays in the pen and the Phillies don’t sign two starters, he will probably find his way back into the starting rotation, at least for the start of the season.
Here are the players I’d consider on the Phillies trade block (players who could be up for trades): Adam Eaton and Shane Victorino (or another outfielder).

-Outfielder Mike Cameron may have been on here a day ago, but recent allegations of substance abuse have knocked him off my list for the time being.

-Other players to keep an eye on: 3B Mike Lowell, CP Todd Jones, RP Jose Mesa

Some News to Start the Off-Season

2007-10-31T16:53:00.000-04:00

As the first couple days of the off-season are now upon us, there is plenty in the news about trades, free agents, and speculation about who will go where- especially pertaining to the Phillies. Here’s the rundown:

Aaron Rowand, Abraham Nunez, Antonio Alfonseca, J.C. Romero, Jon Lieber, and Jose Mesa all have filed for free-agency already.
MLB.com reports that the other four eligible players, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Rod Barajas, and Tadihito Iguchi to file by the November 8th Deadline, suggesting all 10 elgibile players will enter free-agency
We can expect Romero, Rowand, and Lohse especially to test the market for a better deal than what the Phillies would offer them. My guess is that Rowand and Lohse will pretty easily find a deal the Phillies won’t be able to match. Romero is pretty likely going to remain a Phillie, seeing how he likes the Phillies, they like him, and the Phillies need relievers.
Don’t expect to see Lieber, Garcia, Barajas, or Iguchi to be signed. Pat Gillick has made it clear he isn’t going to sign Lieber or Garcia after their bad 2007 season, and the Phillies are covered at catcher and second base.
Nunez was overpaid and didn’t live up to the expectations the organization had for him. He may be re-signed at a reduced salary
Alfonseca and Mesa didn’t have impressive years, but the Phillies have a pretty strong need for relievers at this point.
According the new Astros’ General Manager, (and former Phillies GM) Ed Wade, the Astros are interested in signing Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter.
The general consensus among the Phillies and all journalists is that the Phillies have little or no interest in Alex Rodriguez.
After writing goodbye letters to his teammates, and filing for free-agency, it’s now pretty certain that Curt Schlling will not be returning to the Red Sox.. Since he says that he’s looking for a one-year deal with a playoff-conteding team, and since a one-year deal is what the playoff-contending Phillies are looking for too, it seems even more likely that he will end up in Philadelphia for the 2008 season. Of all the possible acquisitions the Phillies could make, Schilling seems the most likely at the moment.
Mariano Rivera filed for free-agency on Monday. Negotiations between him and the Yankees has started, but with Joe Torre gone Rivera’s heart might not be in New York. Rivera will probably test the market a bit, and hopefully will show interest in the Phillies. The Yankees are reportedly offering Rivera (as well as Jorge Posada) about $40 million over three years. Money will probably not be the biggest factor in Rivera’s decision of who to sign with.
If you think Pat Burrell should be traded, keep dreaming; the $14 million dollar man has repeatedly expressed interest in staying in Philadelphia, and the no-trade clause in his contract means he’d have to approve any trade involving him.
MLB.com recently released an article http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071030&content_id=2288203&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi about the Phillies’ pitching prospect Josh Outman, suggesting he may be ready to play for the Phillies in the near future.
The Phillies recently hired former Devil Ray’s GM Chuck LaMar as their Director of Professional Scouting. It should be noted that LaMar was the one who traded Bobby Abreu to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker.
In the first off-season trade, the Braves traded Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for two prospects, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez and pitcher Jair Jurrjens.
Joe Torre will be the Dodger’s manager, after the Dodgers and manager Grady Little “parted ways” yesterday to make room for Torre. Joe Girardi, the 2006 Manager of the Year for the Marlins will take Torre’s place in the Yankees’ dugout.
Barry Bonds is a free agent… talk about a possible way to bring in fans, and replace Aaron Rowand as a “veteran leader”. Okay, maybe these points are both useless, but there haven’t really been any rumors about where Barry will go…

Coming Soon... Projected 2008 25-Man Roster

Farewell Aaron Rowand

2007-10-30T17:32:00.000-04:00

From MLB.COM:

It has been reported that Rowand is seeking a six-year deal worth $85 million, a price the Phillies reportedly can't afford. Though general manager Pat Gillick said there's money in the budget to retain Rowand and still address pitching, the team is likely willing to be in the three-year, $30-33 million range that Eric Byrnes received from Arizona this season.

The good news here is that there will now be a LOT of payroll room to adress pitching and possibly third base.

Red Sox are World Series Champions

2007-10-29T19:21:00.000-04:00

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, the 2007 World Series Champions. Seems like the curse has been reversed onto the Yankees after 2004...

As much as I wish that I could say the Rockies’ play in the series proves they only won the pennant by riding a streak, it’s not really true. When you look at the play of all the teams in the National League, the Rockies were clearly the best team.

What this series does demonstrate the dominance of the American League’s powerhouse teams versus the best teams in the National League. The American League tends to have a much larger margin of winning percentages between their playoff contenders and non-playoff contenders than the National League does. This, and the fact that the American League is a bit better than the National League as a whole, resulted in the American League’s playoff teams generally being much better than those of the National League. The 7-9 playoff contenders (depending on how you define a contender) in the National League had win totals in the mid-to-high 80s (the Rockies and Diamondbacks had 90), with 7 teams ending more than 5 games out of a playoff spot. In the American League, there were four teams with 94 or more wins, two teams with 88 wins, one with 84, and 8 teams 11 or more games out of the wild card hunt. In mid-September, the American League playoff spots were all but filled, while 10 NL teams had legitimate playoff hopes. You would have been hard-pressed to find any matchups in which Vegas would have favored any of the NL contenders over any of the AL contenders.

The National League provided an incredible September, with incredible drives by the Rockies and Phillies to make the playoffs, and many teams hung on until the last day. The American League’s September was pretty boring, as there wasn’t any sort of a down-to-the-wire finish in any of the races.

The playoffs ended up being pretty one-sided in both leagues. Only two series, both in the American League, were not sweeps: The Indians winning the ALDS 3-1, and the Red Sox winning the ALCS 4-3 after an impressive climb back from a 3-1 deficit. The one-sided matchups and elimination of most of the popular teams (i.e. the Yankees) ended up making the 2007 playoffs less watched and less interesting than previous years. The Rockies made a huge run that stemmed from the regular season, and the Red Sox overcame a 3-1 deficit, and swept the Rockies- not a lot of excitement here. This year, the regular season proved much more interesting, as it did in days of old.

On the subject of Mike Lowell, after winning World Series MVP, his market value has certainly gone up, lowering the chances the Phillies will end up acquiring him as a free agent.

Mid-Game Thoughts on World Series Game 1

2007-10-24T23:00:00.000-04:00

Beckett has been great, but the story is the Rockies just weren't ready for the Sox. The hot offense and defense for the Rockies cooled down in Denver over the break. If you want evidence, here it is: Josh Beckett struck out the side in the first inning using nothing but 95 MPH fastballs- the Rockies' bats were too cold to hit a fast version the simplest pitch in baseball. The Rockies' pitching has also cooled off- there's no other explanation for the awful 7-run two-out Sox rally that just happened in the 5th, including Ryan Speier walking home three straight runs.

The Rockies were too hot for their own good- they created a long layoff that cooled them off in the end. Anyway, I don't think any NL team could beat out the Sox in the series the way the Sox are playing. Their making the Rockies look like the Rockies made the Phillies look in the NLDS.

Keys to the World Series, and Game-by-Game Predictions

2007-10-24T11:36:00.000-04:00

Keys to The Series:

Road Play: For the Red Sox, adjusting to Coors Field is important- if they get even only just one win in Colorado, they are left only needing to win 3 at Fenway, which won’t be too hard to do. If they win two in Colorado, or even three, they’d almost certainly win. For the Rockies, stealing one at Fenway in the first two games could put them in the driver’s seat- they will very likely get two or three wins at home, which would let them bring a lead back to Fenway in game 6, or they may not even have to play at Fenway again. If the Rockies can’t get the momentum of winning one at Fenway in games 1 or 2, a return to Fenway in games 6 or 7 could be disastrous for the Rockies.

Young Pitchers: All four of the Rockies starters, and John Lester for the Sox, are all young pitchers who aren’t all that familiar with the fall classic. The Rockies’ pitchers have done incredible this postseason even with that fact, but now they’re playing a powerhouse American League opponent. The Rockies need these guys to continue to pitch strongly if they want any chance at all of winning, and a Lester win in Colorado would be a huge blow to the Rockies, who need to make their home games count.

Josh Beckett: If Beckett isn’t the MVP of the World Series, then the Rockies will probably be the ones raising the World Series trophy. Beckett has been absolutely ridiculous this postseason. He’s 3-0 in the playoffs with a 1.17 ERA. He’s the definite AL Cy Young winner, the only pitcher to win 20 games in 2007. His two wins undoubtedly saved the Sox in the ALCS. If the Rockies can muster just one win against him that would turn the series in their favor.

Momentum: The Rockies have won 21 out of 22 games, and the Red Sox just won three straight elimination games. The difference is that the Red Sox have had a 3-day layoff, the Rockies a 9-day layoff. If the Rockies are still hot after the long days they spent in snowy Denver, they can gain the advantage in the series. If the Rockies have died down, the Red Sox will destroy them. This being said, along with the last key, Game 1 happens to be the most important game of the series, especially for the Rockies, who could go from 2:1 odds of victory to 1:2 odds with a win over Beckett.

World Series Matchup:

Game 1: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: 65% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-3 Red Sox
It may be game 1, but this game can really make or break the series for the Rockies. They can prove they are still hot, and put aside worries about the 9-day layoff. More importantly, if they somehow beat the unstoppable Josh Beckett, I’d say their chances of winning the series go to 20% if they lost, and 50% if they won. Beckett should let up a few runs to the powerful Rockies lineup, but not enough to worry Sox fans.

Game 2: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: 50% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-6 Red Sox
The way Jimenez and Schilling have been pitching lately, I’d actually give Jimenez the edge. If both these guys pitch the way they have been pitching recently, I’d call this game as a coin flip. Assuming I have to give the advantage away, I’d say the Red Sox get it, unless the Rockies really make a strong rebound from game 1. If the Rockies won game 1, I’d say the chances are the same. A loss here would really be discouraging and devastating to the Rockies.

Game 3: Fogg vs. Dice-K
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 12-6 Rockies
Dice-K gets the obvious edge here, as he’s begun to settle down. The big question here is if the Red Sox can really perform in Colorado. I think that for this reason they probably will struggle for this game, and I see them losing. The Sox will have a much harder time on the road than the Rockies.

Game 4: Aaron Cook vs. John Lester
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 8-2 Rockies
Neither of these guys was too impressive during the season. The question for me in this game is if the Sox can adjust to Coors field. I say that’s not probable, and thus I give the Rockies the edge. Surprisingly to me, the Rockies aren’t down 3-1 in my book at this point.

Game 5: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: Red Sox 60%
Predicted Score: 6-4 Red Sox
I’d say there is an equally good and bad chance that the Red Sox will have trouble adjusting by now. Coors Field could possibly just stop them right in their tracks, or not. Beckett may have trouble pitching at Coors, but he’s Josh Beckett, one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball, so I think the Sox can squeeze one win out of the Rockies at Coors.

Game 6: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: Red Sox 70%
Predicted Score: 11-4 Red Sox
A win at Coors should drive the Rockies into a corner they haven’t been anywhere close to in over a month, and the Red Sox should win in their first game back at Fenway.

Red Sox win Series, 3-2
Word Series MVP: Josh Beckett
Other Candidates to note as of now: Matt Holliday, Kaz Matsui, Brad Hawpe, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez

things could happen. Here are some scenarios

Rockies win Game 1: 60% chance Rockies win series, predicted series outcome 4-2 Rockies

Rockies win first two games: 80% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies

First two games are split: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Rockies win all home games: 65% Rockies, 4-2 Rockies

Series goes back to Boston 3-2 Rockies: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Series go back to Boston 3-2 Red Sox: 80% Red Sox, 4-2 Red Sox

Rockies win first 3: 95% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies (you never know with the Red Sox though...)

Game 7 situation: 85% Red Sox

Could Mike Lowell be a Phillie in '08?

2007-10-23T14:16:00.000-04:00

From the Boston Globe, 10/22/07:

The biggest question marks [for the Red Sox are third baseman Mike Lowell
and pitcher Curt Schilling. Lowell has said his first choice is to come back,
and the Sox have said they would like to make that happen. But he is likely to
command serious interest from other clubs, including the Yankees, especially if
Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. Lowell began his career in the Yankees
organization, and has not said he would reject them out of hand, like Schilling
said he would.

Another team Lowell recently expressed interest in is the
Phillies. "Where would I fit in the offense? You look at Jimmy Rollins and Chase
Utley and guys like that, and that has to bring a smile to your face," Lowell
told the Philadelphia Daily News. "And I've always hit well in that park. So
that would definitely be a team I would consider."

Lowell had the only
three-homer game of his career in Philadelphia, and is batting .353 (24 for 68)
lifetime in Citizens Bank Park. His father, Carlos, spent two years at Saint
Joseph's in Philadelphia and played for the Hawks.

"I grew up an ardent
Phillies fan because, on that trip with my parents, we stopped at a Burger King
and they were giving away baseball cards. I got a Mike Schmidt," Lowell told
Paul Hagen of the Daily News in '03, when the Marlins were in the World Series.
"I asked my dad, 'Is he a good player?' He said, yes, he was a very good player.
That was 1980 and Schmidt won the MVP that year."

Lowell, currently the Red Sox 3rd Baseman, has been talked about previously as a possible acquisition for this off-season. With Alex Rodriguez possibly on his way out of New York, he could be a free agent this off-season. While I'm sure a lot of people would love to see him in Philadelphia, they can all keep dreaming. The Red Sox, however, would be definitely interested in A-Rod, and that would mean they probably wouldn't hang on to Mike Lowell, who is their 3rd baseman, who is also eligible for free-agency.

Currently, with Abraham Nunez gone, the Phillies' are down to two possible third baseman, Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms. Both are mediocre players, but neither of them would really be a hole in the lineup. Still, acquiring Lowell, who was .324 during the 2007 season, with 21 homers and 120 RBIs, would be huge. He could fill a crucial role in the lineup and in the locker room that may be vacated with the possible departure of Aaron Rowand.

If Rowand does not return, acquiring Lowell would mean that the Phillies can keep their impressive, powerful offense intact, and still have a lot of money for strengthening their Pitching Staff. If Rowand does return, the need for Lowell may be slightly diminished, but acquiring him could still be a very wise move.

Thoughts on the World Series

2007-10-22T17:12:00.000-04:00

The Rockies have only really gotten this far into the playoffs by riding a streak, and even though they've been able to keep it going on a few days' rest, it will have been nine days since their last game when they play the also-hot Red Sox Wednesday night. Now, the Sox are by leaps and bounds better than any team the Rox faced over their streak. This isn't to say that the Rockies may still be hot- despite the snow in Denver- come Wednesday. It's possible that the Rockies will really prove their worth, playing well even after that break. Still, even if they can do so, the Red Sox have just as much momentum. As much as I have a feeling that the Rockies are unstoppable, their facing another powerhouse now.

Red Sox are World Series Champs in 6 games

Season Awards

2007-10-20T09:33:00.000-04:00

NL co-MVPs: Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday
Reasoning: Holliday’s offensive stats are simply more impressive, but J-Roll’s amazing defensive play and speed make him more well-rounded than Holliday. Both teams are already offensive powerhouses, so both players offense matters less than their play in other departments. Rollins has clearly had a bigger effect on the Phillies’ success than Holliday on the Rockies’ success, although Holliday’s team is the one who won the pennant. Personally, I’d give them co-MVP, even though that is difficult to do in reality. If I had to rank my top 3, it would be Holliday in 1st, Rollins in 2nd, and out of a lot of candidates for 3rd, David Wright (even with the Mets demise; Howard and Utley both have impressive numbers for players who were injured for a while; Prince Fielder is probably the fourth best).

NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun
Ryan Braun barely beats out Troy Tulowitzki. Not much to say here.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Peavy is the clear-cut winner, after posting incredible stats. 2nd is Brandon Webb, and a close race for 3rd is won by Cole Hamels, despite missing part of the season. Any lefty with a 3.50 ERA at Citizen’s Bank Park is an incredible pitcher, and I don’t know what the Phillies would do without him.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod, who will end up hitting 800 homers in his career, destroys an otherwise close pack.

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
Even more of a clear-cut winner than A-Rod. What he’s done for the Red Sox is above and beyond what would be expected of a Rookie.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Yet another clear-cut winner. Many pitchers have pitched well this season, but if you saw Beckett’s stuff in his playoff appearances, you know this is the best pitcher in baseball right now.

Phillies Awards

MVP: Jimmy Rollins
He wins for the same reasons mentioned before. Utley and Howard share a close 2nd/3rd, putting up impressive stats given the amount of time they missed. Aaron Rowand is definitely close to these top three, an all-around great player, team leader, and fan-favorite. Cole Hamels would be my final candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Kyle Kendrick
This guy was in AA last year? If only Garcia and Lieber had been injured sooner- he’d probably be the NL rookie of the year in that case.

Comeback Player of the Year: Pat Burrell
Burrell’s mid-season offensive turnaround was unbelievable. He could probably have been the NL MVP if he had made this turnaround sooner.

The “Jim Thome” Overrated co-Players of the Year Award: Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber
Goes to the almost distant memories. Wasted money; these players may win 15 games for another team next year, but their lackluster play while they were playing hurt the Phillies greatly in the beginning of the season.

The “Ryan Howard”* Underrated Player of the Year Award: Geoff Geary
Geary may have had a rocky start to the season, but down the stretch he was absolutely incredible, with an ERA below 2.75, and yet we hear so little praise for this guy.
*Called up in 2004 as a pinch-hitter, wins Rookie of the Year the following year, MVP the next

Co-10th Man/Pinch Hitters of the Year: Tadihito Iguchi and Greg Dobbs
Both these backups have numbers that could easily land them a starting job on most other teams, and have come through with many big clutch hits this season. Iguchi took Utley’s place well, as he batted .304, and Dobbs had 10 HR and 55 RBI in only 324 at-bats. If he had started the whole season, he’d have close to 20 HR and 100 RBI.

The “Anyone but Freddy Garcia” Player to Watch Next Year Award: Cole Hamels
Expect Hamels to only get better, along with the Phillies in general next year. Hamels should win at least 15 games, if not 20, and the Phillies as a whole should do even better than this year.

A Look into the Future?

2007-10-15T17:20:00.000-04:00

On September 29, the Phillies lost a national broadcast game to the Washington Nationals 4-2, with a bad outing by Adam Eaton and a game of blown opportunities. They fell back into a tie with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Dissapointment was in the air. I've decided to take a ride in the old time machine, one year ahead of then, 366 days later, to the same date in 2008. While I was there, I was able to pick up this snippet from the Paper...

Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, 9/29/08

If you went around talking to any of the 44,000+ fans at Citizens Bank Park yesterday, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone with a downbeat attitude. That is, unless they were a Rockies fan.

It was a day of milestone-shattering, cheering, and redemption. The Fightin’s 12-3 victory marks their 5th straight win against the defending World Series champion Rockies, putting the Rockies a game-and-a-half back in the Wild Card race behind the 87-74 Braves. The Braves play a doubleheader today to end the season.

“This is our payback for last year,” said Jimmy Rollins, “They really beat us up last year in the playoffs, and now we’re getting our turn.” Rollins was 3-6 with 2 runs batted in.

The win moves the Phillies up to 93-68, and they will have the best record in the National League in two years, and the second-best record in baseball. Curt Schilling got his 14th win, going 7 strong innings, striking out 5. But, yesterday was a day for the records…

A year ago you wouldn’t find Mariano Rivera and the Phillies in the same sentence. Yesterday, Rivera got his 46th save, breaking Jose Mesa’s team record of 45 set back in 2002.
“This is unbelievable… this city is incredible. I’ve had a lot of great years, but my time here has soared above and beyond my expectations.”

However, the fans were already cheering like crazy for the big man, Ryan Howard. In the Bottom of the 8th Inning, with Mike Cameron on second and Mike Lowell on third, 2 outs, and the count 2-2, Howard hit an opposite field shot off LaTroy Hawkins. Chaos erupted- it was Howard’s 61st homer of the season, passing Babe Ruth and tying Roger Maris for the 7th most home runs in a single season in MLB history, also breaking his club record of 58.

“You grow up hearing all about the Babe, said Howard, “He’s probably the biggest slugger in history. To hit more home runs than he did, well, I can’t describe the feeling.”
If the Phillies win tomorrow, they face the Padres in the first round. If the Rockies win and the Braves lose both games of the doubleheader, the Phillies could face the Rockies instead.
Rollins smiled at the possibility, “Another series with them? Wow, this just gets better and better.”

More Good News for the Off-Season

2007-10-13T13:46:00.000-04:00

Curt Schilling spoke to a Daily News Reporter before last night's ALCS Game 1, about the prospect of returning to the Phillies, saying "Absolutely, they'd be on a short list if it doesn't work out here." The soon-to-be-41 Schilling is looking for a short contract, and that's good as the Phillies would probably prefer a short contract as well. This happening is seeming more and more likely every day.

The even better news comes from team president David Montgomery, who said that the Phillies payroll can rise from the $103 million payroll last season. He was quoted yesterday in the Daily News... here is an excerpt from the article:

Seems like just yesterday that any rumor of an impending sale of the Phillies, bogus or not, would produce smiles, a lot of hope, maybe even a few hallelujahs.

Now I'm not so sure. The fun ballpark and its kind-hearted workers, a gritty, young and talented team that the city has put both arms around, a payroll that is reportedly $40 million more than three of the four teams still playing, a manager players begged to bring back, a general manager that, despite some missteps, made some shrewd midseason deals . . .

Well, don't those mystery men and women who own the Phillies get a little credit for all of this?

"The amazing conversation for me," Dave Montgomery was saying yesterday, "is when fans would say, 'If only you people cared as much about this team as we do.'

"I mean, are you kidding me?"

Montgomery said the other day the team's payroll hit $103 million last season, and that it can go up next season. "We got to the new ballpark, we said we would act differently," Montgomery said. "These people haven't taken a dime out of this club. They just want to win."

Hold your snickers. He's not contesting that the value of the franchise has risen. He's saying the ownership group he represents does not pocket the profits made when 3.1 million of you went through the turnstiles this season, or paid for your dogs and beer.

The Phillies have spent - Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Jim Thome, David Bell are just a few of the bigger checks. You can kill them for being stupid with that money - Lord knows, I have - but the larger-market successes, and even some smaller ones, have skeletons in their closets, too. Ask the Diamondbacks if Randy Johnson's season was any more productive than Garcia's.

Wouldn't you have liked to be sitting next to George Steinbrenner when Roger Clemens - whom he paid $28 million for two-thirds of a season - came out after 2 1/3 innings in the ALDS?

"You know what they did this year that they haven't in the past?" John Kruk said on the brink of the playoffs last week. "Chase Utley went down, they went out and got Iguchi. When those pitchers got hurt, they went and traded for Kyle Lohse and took on his contract. The free agents they signed - if they had a younger guy who was better, he played [Carlos Ruiz].

"Pat Gillick threw his ego aside and said play the best guys. I'm telling you, there are a lot of GMs out there who wouldn't do that, because they can't admit when they are wrong."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/10497822.html

It seems as if the Phillies have learned their lesson. They're not looking for a long contract for a star player (avoiding the problems with Philly stars who have long contracts... Thome, Lindros, etc.). However, they should be careful who they bring to the team- if Rivera or Schilling came and had an ego problem, the team chemistry could go down the drain.

Will There be Fightin' for a Championship in '08?

2007-10-12T18:53:00.000-04:00

The Phillies offered a rather disappointing end to their 2007 season, being swiftly swept by the Rockies in the NLDS. They were a young team that wasn’t really prepared to play in the postseason, plagued by their generally inconsistent play and lackluster pitching staff. They rode an impressive streak into the postseason, but still have many problematic shortcomings that need to be fixed.

The common philosophy when your season ends is “There’s always next year.” A lot of teams in professional sports, however, especially after making a long run towards a championship, are often plagued by one main problem in the off-season: keeping their strong team together. They have trouble re-signing their key players, as their value has gone up. Also, the egos of players on the team can over inflate (T.O. cough cough), hurting team chemistry. In football, the dreaded “Super Bowl Curse” plagues the teams who were in the super bowl (more commonly the losers, who almost always fall victim to the curse), as next season they play terribly for these reasons. This goes for all team sports, including baseball.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the Fightin’s won’t fall apart; in fact, next year they will be better than ever.

The Phillies have already committed more than $64 million dollars for the contracts of the following players in 2008:

Pat Burrell ($14 million)
Brett Myers ($8.5 million)
Jimmy Rollins ($8 million)
Adam Eaton ($7.635 million)
Chase Utley ($7.5 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Tom Gordon ($5.5 million)
Wes Helms ($2.15 million)
Jim Thome ($5.5 million- Thome is currently playing for the White Sox

To put it in perspective, their team salary has generally been about $95 million for the past few years. Burrell, Rollins, and Utley are without a doubt going to be starting next year. Moyer will likely be in the starting rotation, while they may try to trade Eaton, who struggled this season.
Eligible for arbitration next year are Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth, Geoff Geary, Julio Mateo, and Kane Davis. Howard made $900,000 last year as part of a one-year deal signed on March 3rd. Essentially the way arbitration works is the player will come up with a salary for next year, and the Phillies will come up with one. A neutral arbitrator chooses the most reasonable between the two, using the player’s stats. The teams can also sign the contract just by negotiating if they come to an agreement. A player of Howard’s caliber would surely get more than $5 million dollars (Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million last year), because the Phillies would be insane to go any lower, which would practically be just taking Howard . My guess is that he gets $6.5 million (per year, as are all the values unless otherwise mentioned). I’d offer a guess the other players end up being about $7.5 million combined. So, that brings my estimate to $78.5 million.

Next up are Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Coste, who should all be signed for a small amount, totaling maybe $3 Million. Also, the Phillies spent $800,000 buying out the contracts of Abraham Nunez and Rod Barajas on Thursday. That brings the estimate to $82.5 million.

Now for the possible Free Agents. Let’s assume the Phillies have about $15 million to spend.
We’ll start in the field, and first comes the big question mark of Aaron Rowand. He has been a team leader and fan favorite, but recent trade talks suggest he won’t be back. Rowand asked today for $84 million over 6 years, while the Phillies want a shorter, less-per-year contract. Maybe they are learning I suppose from the Jim Thome fiasco, which is still costing them- $5.5 million this year. It seems unlikely that the Phillies will go after Rowand.
That would theoretically leave the Phillies with these main starters:

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs
OF Jayson Werth
OF Shane Victorino
OF Pat Burrell

Now, that’s not a bad lineup at all, but the Phillies might look into a Free Agent 3rd Baseman or Outfielder. Doing this would be good, especially getting an outfielder, because an injury could put a big hole in the lineup. The only realistic long-term backup in the outfield would be Michael Bourn or Greg Dobbs. It’s too soon to guess what the Phillies will do, given the Aaron Rowand situation, but I would sign another outfielder if Rowand went, one in the $3-6 million dollar range. There are many possible candidates. Maybe Barry Bonds… just kidding.
Iguchi probably won’t be re-signed, as they have Utley.

Next comes starting pitching. Expect Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, whose contracts totaled $17.5 million this year, to not be resigned. MLB.com reports that the Phillies may end up bring up righty Kyle Drabeck, their 2006 first-round pick, who is currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He went 5-1 for the Lakewood Blue Claws, and may be ready before the all-star break. If there’s a weak link in the rotation, he will probably find his way in there.

That leaves the Phillies with Eaton, Kendrick, Hamels, Durbin, and Moyer in terms of starters. These four were all on the rotation at the end of the regular season. The other was Kyle Lohse, who is eligible for free agency. After Lohse’s strong run for the Phillies this year, he might ask for a lot. A lot of teams would be interested in him, but I see the Phillies going after him, adding I’m going to guess $6.5 million to the payroll. If Lohse wasn’t re-signed, the Phillies would probably sign another of the skilled reliever Free Agents.

It should be noted that Curt Schilling has been reported by Randy Miller of the Courier Times (who has a source inside the team) as being looked into by the Phillies. It is likely that he will end up leaving Boston, and he recently decided to settle down in southern New Jersey, making the Phillies a likely first-choice for him. They may end up signing him, but probably only if the front office raises the payroll, or Lohse isn’t re-signed.

Finally, the bullpen, the part of the team that needs the most improvement. Pat Gillick said that Brett Myers should remain as the closer, unless the Phillies end up somehow not resigning Lohse, and not getting another starter, in which case Myers would probably move into the starting rotation.

However, the Phillies have been reported by Miller as looking into another player in addition to Schilling- Mariano Rivera, who may become a free agent if the Yankees don’t exercise his $21 million dollar option. He would probably cost about $13 million, but his signing would mean Myers would return to the starting rotation, saving the Phillies money they may have had to spend on Lohse, Schilling, or another starting pitcher. Of course, their are no guarantees on how effective Myers will be as a starter after closing most of last year.

I could see J.D. Durbin possibly turning into a middle reliever if Eaton takes the fifth spot on the rotation, or if Schilling or Rivera are signed. The Free Agents are Mesa, Alfonseca, and Romero (Julio Santana was released). The Phillies want Romero back, and Romero wants to come back, so he will probably be re-signed for a few (I’ll guess 3) million. Mesa and Alfonseca should be released.

The Phillies could really round out a powerful roster with more relief pitching. There are too many candidates to name right now, but I have confidence Pat Gillick will come through here, whether or not he signs Rivera or Schilling.

Especially if Rowand goes, the Phillies could really use another seasoned veteran. As Gillick goes searching this off-season, he should, and likely will keep this in mind.
If things go well this off-season, our pitching problem should be completely solved, and the offense should be just as strong as last year.

One of the keys here is if the front office is willing to raise the payroll. With a higher payroll, the Phillies will surely be able to strengthen the bullpen. It’s likely that they will do so, as a strong team will attract a lot of fans to Citizens Bank Park- just look at the last couple weeks of the 2007 season. Who knows, maybe the front office will be generous enough that we can keep Rowand, sign Curt Schilling, Rivera, and another reliever. The front offices’ decision will have a huge effect on championship aspirations for next year.

If Pat Gillick continues the good work, making the right moves, and the front office sees the championship opportunity, the Phillies should be not only just as good next year, but likely much better. I can see it now: Citizens Bank Park twice as full as last year, a powerful pitching rotation without Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin, Mariano Rivera closing, and the Phillies becoming the best team in the National League. Should the front office see this opportunity, this is a whole lot more than wishful thinking.