Projected 2008 Roster, 4th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• Players who could be next in line (noted with their usual position) :
  -From the 40-Man Roster: SP Scott Mathieson, RP Matt Zagurski (L), LRP/SP Shane Youman (L), LRP John Ennis, SP Travis Blackley (L), MRP Fabrio Castro (L), C Jason Jaramillo, 2B Brad Harman, OF Chris Snelling, and OF T.J. Bohn
  -Not on Current Roster: SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman (L), SP Joe Savery (L), and C Pete LaForest
• LaForest was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley recently.
• Chris Roberson was traded yesterday to the Orioles for cash. Hopefully that cash goes towards a big-name pitcher such as Bob Wickman or Bartolo Colon, but for the time being that looks unlikely. It seems more likely that the Phillies will do as they did last season and wait until the trade deadline.
• If Adam Eaton is at-or-near 100%, expect him to be the fifth man in the rotation. If not, expect the Phillies to start the season with Chad Durbin in that position. However, the Phillies may try out some alternative options, especially if Eaton will be out for more than a few weeks. The Phillies are preparing for this by having 24 pitchers on their 40-man roster and 7 non-roster invitees, at least one of which the Phillies hope will be another Kyle Kendrick.
• Beyond Chad Durbin and Eaton, the Phillies could end up experimenting with some of the following pitchers (or even other pitchers not yet in the running) for the fifth spot in the rotation, depending on who does a good job of showing their stuff during spring training (the list is conviniently ordered from most to least likely): J.D. Durbin, Youman, Blackley, Mathieson, Carrasco, Ennis, Outman, Savery.
• If Eaton won’t be starting, expect him to be on the disabled list until he’s at-or-near 100%. At that time he’ll probably do some rehab assignments, make a relief appearance or two, and come back into the rotation. How fast all this happens depends how desperate the Phillies are to have him back. It is also a possibility that, like Jon Lieber, or John Smoltz (okay, maybe not the fairest comparison), Eaton could end up pitching in the bullpen when he returns.

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.


4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.


The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...

The Closer in '08: Brett Myers?

Constantly the Phillies have said that Myers will be the closer in 2008, but this happening has never been taken as any sort of near certainty. We all know that there are plenty of Free Agent closers out there, and that there is also a need for Myers in the starting rotation. The fact is, we don’t know where Myers will be at his strongest. He could remain the closer, and the Phillies could spend their money elsewhere. Myers may even evolve into one of the best closers in baseball if we’re lucky. We could also move him back to the rotation and sign a new closer. Or, he could become a middle or long reliever.

His stats don’t give us that good of an idea of where he’s strongest:

• In Brett Myers' career as a starter (2002-2006, 1st 3 games of 2007), he has put up these stats: 143 Games, 54-41, 868.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 306 BB, 708 SO, .329 OBP
• In 2006 specifically, Myers put up these stats: 31 Games, 12-7, 198.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 189 SO, OBA .257
• Myers began the 2007 season 0-2, allowing 16 runs in 15.1 innings of work over 3 starts.
• On April 18th, due to Myers’ struggles, he was moved to the bullpen. He made his first start as a Middle Reliever/Set-Up Man. Over his 8 games (between 4/18 and 5/1) in this role, he put up impressive stats:
  0-0, 8.1 IP, 1 Run, 13 SO, 3 BB, OBA .324
• On May 3rd, with closer Tom Gordon injured, Myers took over the closer role. He was out of the lineup
  due to injury from 5/23-7/28. He did okay (especially for a new closer) before the injury. After the injury shared he sometimes shared the closing role with Tom Gordon, and he had some rough games in his first couple weeks back, but settled down after that. Along with the rest of the team, he played well down the stretch. From May 3rd until the end of the regular season, Myers put up these stats: 5-5, 40 Games, 21/24 Saves, 45.0 IP, 16 Runs, 14 BB, 51 SO, 3.20 ERA, .210 OBA.
  

Myers has done slightly better out of the bullpen, which is why the Phillies want to keep him there. He’s a big guy that is developing a good fastball that would tire him out as a starter.
Right now, the Phillies have two holes in their starting rotation: the empty spot left by new free-agent Kyle Lohse, and Adam Eaton (I am not even kidding here). Now, the Phillies have prospects that could fill in one of the spots, and there’s always Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin. The Phillies are also going to look for starters.

Now, assuming that Pat Gillick is half as smart as I think he is, he will be able to adequately complete the starting rotation with or without Myers. So, Myers will probably only be removed as a closer if a better (or much better, depending on willing the Phillies are to move Myers) replacement is found. Many closers can also make good middle relievers- and it's often easy to tell which ones can- meaning the Phillies have some flexibility.


And for your reading pleasure, I conjured up a list of 5 candidates that could possibly replace Myers as the closer…

Eric Gagne: He had a tough run with Boston, but that doesn’t reflect on his skill as a closer: He was the 2003 Cy Young winner. After injury plagued 2005 and 2006 seasons, he played well in 2007 as the Rangers’ closer, but was traded to the Red Sox. In Boston, playing as a middle-reliever rather than a closer, he imploded, having a 6.75 ERA over 20 Games. The likely explanation is that Gagne specializes in closing, and can’t be an effective middle-reliever.

If would be a huge risk signing Gagne. It’s possible that his implosion hurt his skill as a closer- for this reason his market value has dropped from his $6,000,000 2007 salary. If he turns out to close like he did before his implosion, he would be a huge acquisition, and the Phillies would get a lot of bang for their buck. It’s also possible he would be another Freddy Garcia.

It’s not certain whether Pat Gillick will even look into Gagne. Gagne many not be the kind of player the Phillies would want to sign to take over for Myers. However, I think Gagne should definitely be looked into. Right now, according to the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have a mutual interest in him, so he may be gone before the Phillies really get a chance to consider him.

Troy Percival: Having just come out of three injury-plagued season, and retirement, the Phillies probably won’t go for Percival. However, while he’s a risk similar to Gagne, Percival came out of retirement and played his first MLB game back on June 29th, yet still managed to post a 1.80 ERA in 40.0 IP over 34 games in 2007. Not too shabby…

Mariano Rivera: Things have changed a lot here. It was thought by many (including me) that Rivera might leave the Yankees if Torre left. However, Rivera has applauded the hiring of Joe Girardi, and is saying he wants to retire in pinstripes. Also, the Yankees are planning to move Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, meaning they will probably re-sign Rivera. It doesn’t look like Rivera will really be testing the market, although it’s still possible. If he did, the Phillies would likely make him an offer.

Francisco Cordero: Closer for the Brewers in 2006. He was 2.98 ERA, 44/51 saves in 2007, similar to previous years. He’s been talked about by many in the media as a possible closer. He’s had some rough spots in the past few years, though.

Bob Wickman: Wickman is unlikely to re-sign with Arizona, his team at the end of 2007. He has had a lot of good and bad seasons, and has a lot of experience as a closer. His ERA has been around 3.5 recently, and he dropped his ERA a lot over the last two months of the 2007 season. He could play a role similar to Tom Gordon, as a set-up man, or replace Myers as closer, giving the Phillies options. He would probably be a better closer than Gordon, though. I’m not sure if the Phillies think he’s a good enough closer to be signed to replace Myers. However, everybody loves a 240 pound meatballing reliever…


My Choice: Gagne- If we can get him for a good price, we should take him. If he ends up pulling a Freddy Garcia, we can move Myers back and put someone new in the rotation. I think there's a better chance Gagne ends up having his old stuff, in which case we score big.

Probable Phillies' Choice: Nobody- The Phillies are to weary of their (and other Philly teams') past when it comes to big-name acquisitions to take a risk on any of these 5 hit-or-miss guys, or anybody other than Myers. They'll go for a couple starters, most likely Lohse and Schilling, although anybody could end up being signed.