Whew, That Was Close

The Boston Herald is reporting that Curt Schilling has sustained a torn rotator cuff, the origin of which is unknown, as is the time when the injury occured. Schilling may miss the entire season if he needs surgery, and given his age, such an injury might result in Schilling calling it quits.

Despire Schilling's close ties to Philadelphia and the Phillies' organization, there is no doubt that Pat Gillick is breathing a sigh of unexpected relief. Early in the off-season, it looked as if the Phillies were going to sign Schilling. The Sox are trying to void Schilling's $8 million dollar contract that they reached with him back in November, but picture what would have happened had the Phillies signed him. Brett Myers would likely still be the closer since Brad Lidge would have never been acquired, and the Phillies wouldn't have had the money to spend on Pedro Feliz, or maybe even Geoff Jenkins. Things would have taken the usual Phillies'-turn-for-the-worse, but it seems we've got lady luck on our side this time, leaving this fan saying, "What Curse?"

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ROTATION??? / Pat Gillick Makes Brett Myers Cry at Night

In the last installment of the "What Happened to The Phillies" / "%#(@ You Pat Gillick" we examined the Phillies' new closer, Brad Lidge. Now, we will follow our former closer, Brett Myers, along his exile back to the rotation. Since the Phillies failed to sign any sort of reliable starter, Brett Myers is forced to become the #2 man in the rotation, which he is very unhappy with...



"I'm upset," Myers said Thursday, "not with the Phillies, because I understand the situation. I'm upset because I think I really found myself and my role this year as a closer. I know, because I've been told that I'm best suited to be a closer."

"I understand what's going on, and I understand that for this team, me going back to being a starter is the move to make," Myers said. "I definitely like closing more. I like having the ball in my hands four or five days [a week]. The only thing I don't like in starting is, I may go nuts those four days in between getting the ball."
...
Said Myers: "There are positives in this. I think I've proven myself as a closer and as a starter. If the time comes and I'm on the market as a free agent, instead of two teams needing a starter and two needing a closer, I can make myself available as both to 30 teams.
"This doesn't mean I'm unhappy in Philly. I love the team. I love the fans. But from a personal standpoint, this certainly can help me in the long run."

Source: The News Journal









Needless to say, Brett Myers looks like a very unhappy man :(


Moving Myers to the starting rotation was a Plan-C type move that Gillick, despite him and Charlie Manuel continuously denying any chance of Myers moving out of the closer role. Now, Myers cries himself to sleep at night over Pat Gillick, while Brad Lidge does the same over Albert Pujols. It's okay Brett, Gillick doesn't only lie to you. He told us that he was going to spend big bucks on pitching a day before he offered over $35 Million to Mike Lowell.

It also worries me that the only positive Myers now sees in this move is that it will be easier for him to get out of Philadelphia, given that as recently as a few months ago it looked like Myers could have a great, happy future with the Phils.

All this results in the following rotation:

1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Kyle Kendrick
4. Jamie Moyer
5. Peter Forsberg

As you can clearly see, I have absolutely no idea who will be filling the fifth spot in the rotation. Here are some candidates...

Adam Eaton: Eaton had a terrible 2007 due to a shoulder injury, and likely will not be 100% by opening day. When he's back to full strength, he will likely be back in the rotation.

Travis Blackley: The Rule 5 Draft pick is unlikely to have the stuff needed to start in 2008, and will likely be stuck in the back end of the bullpen or in the minors, but given the hole Pat Gillick has dug us into, I wouldn't be suprised to see him squeeze into the rotation.

Chad Durbin: His $900,000 contract is all he deserves. He is a journeyman pitcher who is unlikely to do much better than J.D. Durbin did last season, and a couple months ago there were hopes the Phillies would sign a bigger-name pitcher. At one point, it even looked like instead of Durbin we would sign Kyle Lohse and Curt Schilling. So much for that.

Beyond that, it is very unclear as to who will get that fifth spot. There are over a dozen candidates, prospect and journeyman alike, but nobody with stuff anywhere close to what Kyle Lohse brought.

I don't want to even imagine what happens if one of our solid starters goes down. We got lucky with Kyle Kendrick, but that's unlikely to happen again.

Power Rankings- Week of 12/17

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers- The signing of Hideki Kuroda will just make the best team in the league even better.
2 (2) Rockies- LaTroy Hawkins' signing with the Yankees weakens the bullpen, but if the Rockies bullpen continues to play like they did in September and October, they'll have little to worry about.
3 (3) Phillies- Pat Gillick is apparently hibernating this winter. By the time he wakes up for spring, the Fightins could be unimproved from 2007, and drop a few places here. Hopefully, he'll wake up and make a deal for Mike Cameron or Geoff Jenkins, and/or a worthwhile pitcher.
4 (5) Padres- Added now former Phillie Tadahito Iguchi, and Jim Edmonds.
5 (7) Diamondbacks- Jose Valverde is gone, but the addition of the 2007 AL All-Star Starter Dan Haren pulls the Diamondbacks into the top 5.
6 (4) Mets
7 (6) Braves
8 (10) Cubs- The big signing of Kosuke Fukudome pushes the Cubs to the top of the NL Central, just ahead of the Brewers.
9 (8) Brewers- The Brewers just signed closer Eric Gagne to a 1 year, $10 Million deal (I guess even I had underestimated his market value. They're gambling that Gagne will bounce back after a surprisingly bad run as the set-up man for the Red Sox, and now he's been mentioned in the Mitchell Report.
10 (9) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros- Two days after trading Miguel Tejada, Ed Wade wakes up from him shame-nap to find Tejada mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Ineffectual, maybe, but doesn't this make you wonder if Ed Wade was the one who was cursed, not the Phillies?
12 (14) Giants- Aaron Rowand finds a new home there. Maybe his influence will be a little bit better than that which Barry Bonds had, but I don't think he was worth the money considering that the Giants aren't going to be making any championship runs any time soon, and he cost them a lot.
13 (12) Nationals
14 (15) Reds
15 (16) Pirates
17 (unranked)- Sacramento RiverCats
18 (unranked)- Oregon State Beavers
19 (13) Marlins- After trading away Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are now so incredibly bad that they are now ranked 18th... despite the fact that there are only 16 teams in the National League. When your highest paid player is Kevin Gregg, you either have Jesus himself negotiating your contracts, or your just plain suck.


American League

1) Red Sox- Johan Santana could still be on the way, although he's reportedly going to want around $140 Million for 7 years. Imagine Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield as your starting rotation, and then realize you are not dreaming or watching the all-star game, that this could soon be a reality. Sox are #1 by leaps and bounds. Conspiracy theorists are going crazy over how the Sox are not mentioned in the report, given that George Mitchell is on the Sox board of directors.
2) Yankees- Adding LaTroy Hawkins to an otherwise weak bullpen (especially given the fact that this is the Yankees) was a good move. They're also talking with Santana now.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5 (6) Tigers
6 (5) Mariners
7) Blue Jays- Recently added SS David Eckstein
8) Athletics- Dealing Dan Haren definetely has an effect on the teams' potency, but they don't drop them too far into the land of non-contender AL teams. Perhaps the possible addition of Barry Bonds could end up being a suprise blessing for the A's.
9) Twins- If they lose Santana they will drop, but for now the Twins will stay put.
10) White Sox
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Trading Miguel Tejada was a good move, sacrificing a good current player for a brighter future. Fortunately for them, they'd have to lose a lot more than him to drop to the cellar of the American League where the Rays and Royals are stuck.
13) Rays
14) Royals

So Much for Schilling

From MLB.Com:

Curt Schilling and the Red Sox appear ready to announce a one-year deal with incentives to return him to Boston for one final season. ESPN.com reported on Tuesday that Schilling and the team have reached agreement on an $8 million base salary with an additional $2 million in incentives. The deal is pending a physical on the right-hander, who will turn 41 on Nov. 14.

After Writing farewell letters to his teammates just one week ago, it appears Curt Schilling has had a change of heart, and will in all likelihood will be returning to the Red Sox in 2008. This is tough news, as Schilling's experience would have been a huge boost to the Phillies.

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.


4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.


The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia


Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”


There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.


Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.


Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.




My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect

Some News to Start the Off-Season

As the first couple days of the off-season are now upon us, there is plenty in the news about trades, free agents, and speculation about who will go where- especially pertaining to the Phillies. Here’s the rundown:

• Aaron Rowand, Abraham Nunez, Antonio Alfonseca, J.C. Romero, Jon Lieber, and Jose Mesa all have filed for free-agency already.
• MLB.com reports that the other four eligible players, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Rod Barajas, and Tadihito Iguchi to file by the November 8th Deadline, suggesting all 10 elgibile players will enter free-agency
• We can expect Romero, Rowand, and Lohse especially to test the market for a better deal than what the Phillies would offer them. My guess is that Rowand and Lohse will pretty easily find a deal the Phillies won’t be able to match. Romero is pretty likely going to remain a Phillie, seeing how he likes the Phillies, they like him, and the Phillies need relievers.
• Don’t expect to see Lieber, Garcia, Barajas, or Iguchi to be signed. Pat Gillick has made it clear he isn’t going to sign Lieber or Garcia after their bad 2007 season, and the Phillies are covered at catcher and second base.
• Nunez was overpaid and didn’t live up to the expectations the organization had for him. He may be re-signed at a reduced salary
• Alfonseca and Mesa didn’t have impressive years, but the Phillies have a pretty strong need for relievers at this point.
• According the new Astros’ General Manager, (and former Phillies GM) Ed Wade, the Astros are interested in signing Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter.
• The general consensus among the Phillies and all journalists is that the Phillies have little or no interest in Alex Rodriguez.
• After writing goodbye letters to his teammates, and filing for free-agency, it’s now pretty certain that Curt Schlling will not be returning to the Red Sox.. Since he says that he’s looking for a one-year deal with a playoff-conteding team, and since a one-year deal is what the playoff-contending Phillies are looking for too, it seems even more likely that he will end up in Philadelphia for the 2008 season. Of all the possible acquisitions the Phillies could make, Schilling seems the most likely at the moment.
• Mariano Rivera filed for free-agency on Monday. Negotiations between him and the Yankees has started, but with Joe Torre gone Rivera’s heart might not be in New York. Rivera will probably test the market a bit, and hopefully will show interest in the Phillies. The Yankees are reportedly offering Rivera (as well as Jorge Posada) about $40 million over three years. Money will probably not be the biggest factor in Rivera’s decision of who to sign with.
• If you think Pat Burrell should be traded, keep dreaming; the $14 million dollar man has repeatedly expressed interest in staying in Philadelphia, and the no-trade clause in his contract means he’d have to approve any trade involving him.
  MLB.com recently released an article http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071030&content_id=2288203&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi about the Phillies’ pitching prospect Josh Outman, suggesting he may be ready to play for the Phillies in the near future.
• The Phillies recently hired former Devil Ray’s GM Chuck LaMar as their Director of Professional Scouting. It should be noted that LaMar was the one who traded Bobby Abreu to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker.
• In the first off-season trade, the Braves traded Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for two prospects, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez and pitcher Jair Jurrjens.
• Joe Torre will be the Dodger’s manager, after the Dodgers and manager Grady Little “parted ways” yesterday to make room for Torre. Joe Girardi, the 2006 Manager of the Year for the Marlins will take Torre’s place in the Yankees’ dugout.
• Barry Bonds is a free agent… talk about a possible way to bring in fans, and replace Aaron Rowand as a “veteran leader”. Okay, maybe these points are both useless, but there haven’t really been any rumors about where Barry will go…

Coming Soon... Projected 2008 25-Man Roster

More Good News for the Off-Season

Curt Schilling spoke to a Daily News Reporter before last night's ALCS Game 1, about the prospect of returning to the Phillies, saying "Absolutely, they'd be on a short list if it doesn't work out here." The soon-to-be-41 Schilling is looking for a short contract, and that's good as the Phillies would probably prefer a short contract as well. This happening is seeming more and more likely every day.

The even better news comes from team president David Montgomery, who said that the Phillies payroll can rise from the $103 million payroll last season. He was quoted yesterday in the Daily News... here is an excerpt from the article:

Seems like just yesterday that any rumor of an impending sale of the Phillies, bogus or not, would produce smiles, a lot of hope, maybe even a few hallelujahs.

Now I'm not so sure. The fun ballpark and its kind-hearted workers, a gritty, young and talented team that the city has put both arms around, a payroll that is reportedly $40 million more than three of the four teams still playing, a manager players begged to bring back, a general manager that, despite some missteps, made some shrewd midseason deals . . .

Well, don't those mystery men and women who own the Phillies get a little credit for all of this?

"The amazing conversation for me," Dave Montgomery was saying yesterday, "is when fans would say, 'If only you people cared as much about this team as we do.'

"I mean, are you kidding me?"

Montgomery said the other day the team's payroll hit $103 million last season, and that it can go up next season. "We got to the new ballpark, we said we would act differently," Montgomery said. "These people haven't taken a dime out of this club. They just want to win."

Hold your snickers. He's not contesting that the value of the franchise has risen. He's saying the ownership group he represents does not pocket the profits made when 3.1 million of you went through the turnstiles this season, or paid for your dogs and beer.

The Phillies have spent - Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Jim Thome, David Bell are just a few of the bigger checks. You can kill them for being stupid with that money - Lord knows, I have - but the larger-market successes, and even some smaller ones, have skeletons in their closets, too. Ask the Diamondbacks if Randy Johnson's season was any more productive than Garcia's.

Wouldn't you have liked to be sitting next to George Steinbrenner when Roger Clemens - whom he paid $28 million for two-thirds of a season - came out after 2 1/3 innings in the ALDS?

"You know what they did this year that they haven't in the past?" John Kruk said on the brink of the playoffs last week. "Chase Utley went down, they went out and got Iguchi. When those pitchers got hurt, they went and traded for Kyle Lohse and took on his contract. The free agents they signed - if they had a younger guy who was better, he played [Carlos Ruiz].

"Pat Gillick threw his ego aside and said play the best guys. I'm telling you, there are a lot of GMs out there who wouldn't do that, because they can't admit when they are wrong."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/10497822.html

It seems as if the Phillies have learned their lesson. They're not looking for a long contract for a star player (avoiding the problems with Philly stars who have long contracts... Thome, Lindros, etc.). However, they should be careful who they bring to the team- if Rivera or Schilling came and had an ego problem, the team chemistry could go down the drain.

Will There be Fightin' for a Championship in '08?

The Phillies offered a rather disappointing end to their 2007 season, being swiftly swept by the Rockies in the NLDS. They were a young team that wasn’t really prepared to play in the postseason, plagued by their generally inconsistent play and lackluster pitching staff. They rode an impressive streak into the postseason, but still have many problematic shortcomings that need to be fixed.

The common philosophy when your season ends is “There’s always next year.” A lot of teams in professional sports, however, especially after making a long run towards a championship, are often plagued by one main problem in the off-season: keeping their strong team together. They have trouble re-signing their key players, as their value has gone up. Also, the egos of players on the team can over inflate (T.O. cough cough), hurting team chemistry. In football, the dreaded “Super Bowl Curse” plagues the teams who were in the super bowl (more commonly the losers, who almost always fall victim to the curse), as next season they play terribly for these reasons. This goes for all team sports, including baseball.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the Fightin’s won’t fall apart; in fact, next year they will be better than ever.

The Phillies have already committed more than $64 million dollars for the contracts of the following players in 2008:

Pat Burrell ($14 million)
Brett Myers ($8.5 million)
Jimmy Rollins ($8 million)
Adam Eaton ($7.635 million)
Chase Utley ($7.5 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Tom Gordon ($5.5 million)
Wes Helms ($2.15 million)
Jim Thome ($5.5 million- Thome is currently playing for the White Sox


To put it in perspective, their team salary has generally been about $95 million for the past few years. Burrell, Rollins, and Utley are without a doubt going to be starting next year. Moyer will likely be in the starting rotation, while they may try to trade Eaton, who struggled this season.
Eligible for arbitration next year are Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth, Geoff Geary, Julio Mateo, and Kane Davis. Howard made $900,000 last year as part of a one-year deal signed on March 3rd. Essentially the way arbitration works is the player will come up with a salary for next year, and the Phillies will come up with one. A neutral arbitrator chooses the most reasonable between the two, using the player’s stats. The teams can also sign the contract just by negotiating if they come to an agreement. A player of Howard’s caliber would surely get more than $5 million dollars (Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million last year), because the Phillies would be insane to go any lower, which would practically be just taking Howard . My guess is that he gets $6.5 million (per year, as are all the values unless otherwise mentioned). I’d offer a guess the other players end up being about $7.5 million combined. So, that brings my estimate to $78.5 million.

Next up are Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Coste, who should all be signed for a small amount, totaling maybe $3 Million. Also, the Phillies spent $800,000 buying out the contracts of Abraham Nunez and Rod Barajas on Thursday. That brings the estimate to $82.5 million.

Now for the possible Free Agents. Let’s assume the Phillies have about $15 million to spend.
We’ll start in the field, and first comes the big question mark of Aaron Rowand. He has been a team leader and fan favorite, but recent trade talks suggest he won’t be back. Rowand asked today for $84 million over 6 years, while the Phillies want a shorter, less-per-year contract. Maybe they are learning I suppose from the Jim Thome fiasco, which is still costing them- $5.5 million this year. It seems unlikely that the Phillies will go after Rowand.
That would theoretically leave the Phillies with these main starters:

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs
OF Jayson Werth
OF Shane Victorino
OF Pat Burrell


Now, that’s not a bad lineup at all, but the Phillies might look into a Free Agent 3rd Baseman or Outfielder. Doing this would be good, especially getting an outfielder, because an injury could put a big hole in the lineup. The only realistic long-term backup in the outfield would be Michael Bourn or Greg Dobbs. It’s too soon to guess what the Phillies will do, given the Aaron Rowand situation, but I would sign another outfielder if Rowand went, one in the $3-6 million dollar range. There are many possible candidates. Maybe Barry Bonds… just kidding.
Iguchi probably won’t be re-signed, as they have Utley.

Next comes starting pitching. Expect Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, whose contracts totaled $17.5 million this year, to not be resigned. MLB.com reports that the Phillies may end up bring up righty Kyle Drabeck, their 2006 first-round pick, who is currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He went 5-1 for the Lakewood Blue Claws, and may be ready before the all-star break. If there’s a weak link in the rotation, he will probably find his way in there.

That leaves the Phillies with Eaton, Kendrick, Hamels, Durbin, and Moyer in terms of starters. These four were all on the rotation at the end of the regular season. The other was Kyle Lohse, who is eligible for free agency. After Lohse’s strong run for the Phillies this year, he might ask for a lot. A lot of teams would be interested in him, but I see the Phillies going after him, adding I’m going to guess $6.5 million to the payroll. If Lohse wasn’t re-signed, the Phillies would probably sign another of the skilled reliever Free Agents.

It should be noted that Curt Schilling has been reported by Randy Miller of the Courier Times (who has a source inside the team) as being looked into by the Phillies. It is likely that he will end up leaving Boston, and he recently decided to settle down in southern New Jersey, making the Phillies a likely first-choice for him. They may end up signing him, but probably only if the front office raises the payroll, or Lohse isn’t re-signed.

Finally, the bullpen, the part of the team that needs the most improvement. Pat Gillick said that Brett Myers should remain as the closer, unless the Phillies end up somehow not resigning Lohse, and not getting another starter, in which case Myers would probably move into the starting rotation.

However, the Phillies have been reported by Miller as looking into another player in addition to Schilling- Mariano Rivera, who may become a free agent if the Yankees don’t exercise his $21 million dollar option. He would probably cost about $13 million, but his signing would mean Myers would return to the starting rotation, saving the Phillies money they may have had to spend on Lohse, Schilling, or another starting pitcher. Of course, their are no guarantees on how effective Myers will be as a starter after closing most of last year.

I could see J.D. Durbin possibly turning into a middle reliever if Eaton takes the fifth spot on the rotation, or if Schilling or Rivera are signed. The Free Agents are Mesa, Alfonseca, and Romero (Julio Santana was released). The Phillies want Romero back, and Romero wants to come back, so he will probably be re-signed for a few (I’ll guess 3) million. Mesa and Alfonseca should be released.

The Phillies could really round out a powerful roster with more relief pitching. There are too many candidates to name right now, but I have confidence Pat Gillick will come through here, whether or not he signs Rivera or Schilling.

Especially if Rowand goes, the Phillies could really use another seasoned veteran. As Gillick goes searching this off-season, he should, and likely will keep this in mind.
If things go well this off-season, our pitching problem should be completely solved, and the offense should be just as strong as last year.

One of the keys here is if the front office is willing to raise the payroll. With a higher payroll, the Phillies will surely be able to strengthen the bullpen. It’s likely that they will do so, as a strong team will attract a lot of fans to Citizens Bank Park- just look at the last couple weeks of the 2007 season. Who knows, maybe the front office will be generous enough that we can keep Rowand, sign Curt Schilling, Rivera, and another reliever. The front offices’ decision will have a huge effect on championship aspirations for next year.

If Pat Gillick continues the good work, making the right moves, and the front office sees the championship opportunity, the Phillies should be not only just as good next year, but likely much better. I can see it now: Citizens Bank Park twice as full as last year, a powerful pitching rotation without Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin, Mariano Rivera closing, and the Phillies becoming the best team in the National League. Should the front office see this opportunity, this is a whole lot more than wishful thinking.