Hot Stove Update

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:

• Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
• The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
• For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
• The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
• The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
• Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
• The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
• There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
• Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
• I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Phillies Off-Season Preview: Position Players

It's safe to say that the Phillies lineup is going to be fine without any additions or re-signings this off-season. Barring any trades or any other unforeseen events, here is what the Phillies lineup would look like in 2008 if the Phillies did not sign or re-sign anybody this off-season (not shown in batting order)


1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms
C- Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Jayson Werth
RF- Shane Victorino

Bench:

Greg Dobbs (3B/1B/LF/RF) or Wes Helms (3B/1B)
Chris Roberson (LF/RF)
Pete LaForest (C/1B)
Chris Coste (C) or Carlos Ruiz (C)
Eric Bruntlett (2B/SS)

This lineup would certainly suffice. With Aaron Rowand gone there won't be as much depth and in this lineup and it's certainly less potent than last season , but given the improvements that should be made to pitching staff I'm not too worried. More importantly, Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse, and the loss of his influence might be a big problem for this young lineup. I also worry that as always with the Phillies, this lineup will be inconsistent and not able to perform game-after-game at the level needed to really be considered a championship contender.

Third Base has been considered a weak spot, as the offensive production from third base was nothing short of abysmal last season. However, Pat Gillick was quoted in the Daily News as saying he doesn't think anything but pitching will be addressed in the off-season...

"I don't know that [third base] is going to be addressed," Pat Gillick said as the annual general manager meetings got under way yesterday at the posh Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "We'll go with [Wes] Helms and [Greg] Dobbs. Because we're going to concentrate on pitching. If we go in any direction, we're going to concentrate on pitching... If we make a deal, it will be for pitching," the general manager said. "If we spend money, we'll spend it on pitching... If you improve your pitching, you don't have to have as much offense... You don't have to score as many runs if you don't let as many in."

This pretty much rules out the possible acquisition of any off-season improvements to the lineup. I agree fully with Gillick; this offense should be fine, despite the loss of Rowand. However, I wonder if the Phillies would have enough playoff experience as a team last year to be able to perform under playoff pressure in 2008, now having lost 2005 World Series Champions Tadihito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Freddy Garcia. Many of the seasoned veterans who were on the 2007 Phillies are now free-agents. This worries me a bit, but hopefully this issue can be adressed when Pat Gillick goes shopping for pitchers this off-season.

Could Mike Lowell be a Phillie in '08?

From the Boston Globe, 10/22/07:

The biggest question marks [for the Red Sox are third baseman Mike Lowell
and pitcher Curt Schilling. Lowell has said his first choice is to come back,
and the Sox have said they would like to make that happen. But he is likely to
command serious interest from other clubs, including the Yankees, especially if
Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. Lowell began his career in the Yankees
organization, and has not said he would reject them out of hand, like Schilling
said he would.

Another team Lowell recently expressed interest in is the
Phillies. "Where would I fit in the offense? You look at Jimmy Rollins and Chase
Utley and guys like that, and that has to bring a smile to your face," Lowell
told the Philadelphia Daily News. "And I've always hit well in that park. So
that would definitely be a team I would consider."

Lowell had the only
three-homer game of his career in Philadelphia, and is batting .353 (24 for 68)
lifetime in Citizens Bank Park. His father, Carlos, spent two years at Saint
Joseph's in Philadelphia and played for the Hawks.

"I grew up an ardent
Phillies fan because, on that trip with my parents, we stopped at a Burger King
and they were giving away baseball cards. I got a Mike Schmidt," Lowell told
Paul Hagen of the Daily News in '03, when the Marlins were in the World Series.
"I asked my dad, 'Is he a good player?' He said, yes, he was a very good player.
That was 1980 and Schmidt won the MVP that year."

Lowell, currently the Red Sox 3rd Baseman, has been talked about previously as a possible acquisition for this off-season. With Alex Rodriguez possibly on his way out of New York, he could be a free agent this off-season. While I'm sure a lot of people would love to see him in Philadelphia, they can all keep dreaming. The Red Sox, however, would be definitely interested in A-Rod, and that would mean they probably wouldn't hang on to Mike Lowell, who is their 3rd baseman, who is also eligible for free-agency.

Currently, with Abraham Nunez gone, the Phillies' are down to two possible third baseman, Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms. Both are mediocre players, but neither of them would really be a hole in the lineup. Still, acquiring Lowell, who was .324 during the 2007 season, with 21 homers and 120 RBIs, would be huge. He could fill a crucial role in the lineup and in the locker room that may be vacated with the possible departure of Aaron Rowand.

If Rowand does not return, acquiring Lowell would mean that the Phillies can keep their impressive, powerful offense intact, and still have a lot of money for strengthening their Pitching Staff. If Rowand does return, the need for Lowell may be slightly diminished, but acquiring him could still be a very wise move.

Season Awards

NL co-MVPs: Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday
Reasoning: Holliday’s offensive stats are simply more impressive, but J-Roll’s amazing defensive play and speed make him more well-rounded than Holliday. Both teams are already offensive powerhouses, so both players offense matters less than their play in other departments. Rollins has clearly had a bigger effect on the Phillies’ success than Holliday on the Rockies’ success, although Holliday’s team is the one who won the pennant. Personally, I’d give them co-MVP, even though that is difficult to do in reality. If I had to rank my top 3, it would be Holliday in 1st, Rollins in 2nd, and out of a lot of candidates for 3rd, David Wright (even with the Mets demise; Howard and Utley both have impressive numbers for players who were injured for a while; Prince Fielder is probably the fourth best).

NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun
Ryan Braun barely beats out Troy Tulowitzki. Not much to say here.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Peavy is the clear-cut winner, after posting incredible stats. 2nd is Brandon Webb, and a close race for 3rd is won by Cole Hamels, despite missing part of the season. Any lefty with a 3.50 ERA at Citizen’s Bank Park is an incredible pitcher, and I don’t know what the Phillies would do without him.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod, who will end up hitting 800 homers in his career, destroys an otherwise close pack.

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
Even more of a clear-cut winner than A-Rod. What he’s done for the Red Sox is above and beyond what would be expected of a Rookie.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Yet another clear-cut winner. Many pitchers have pitched well this season, but if you saw Beckett’s stuff in his playoff appearances, you know this is the best pitcher in baseball right now.


Phillies Awards

MVP: Jimmy Rollins
He wins for the same reasons mentioned before. Utley and Howard share a close 2nd/3rd, putting up impressive stats given the amount of time they missed. Aaron Rowand is definitely close to these top three, an all-around great player, team leader, and fan-favorite. Cole Hamels would be my final candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Kyle Kendrick
This guy was in AA last year? If only Garcia and Lieber had been injured sooner- he’d probably be the NL rookie of the year in that case.

Comeback Player of the Year: Pat Burrell
Burrell’s mid-season offensive turnaround was unbelievable. He could probably have been the NL MVP if he had made this turnaround sooner.

The “Jim Thome” Overrated co-Players of the Year Award: Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber
Goes to the almost distant memories. Wasted money; these players may win 15 games for another team next year, but their lackluster play while they were playing hurt the Phillies greatly in the beginning of the season.

The “Ryan Howard”* Underrated Player of the Year Award: Geoff Geary
Geary may have had a rocky start to the season, but down the stretch he was absolutely incredible, with an ERA below 2.75, and yet we hear so little praise for this guy.
*Called up in 2004 as a pinch-hitter, wins Rookie of the Year the following year, MVP the next

Co-10th Man/Pinch Hitters of the Year: Tadihito Iguchi and Greg Dobbs
Both these backups have numbers that could easily land them a starting job on most other teams, and have come through with many big clutch hits this season. Iguchi took Utley’s place well, as he batted .304, and Dobbs had 10 HR and 55 RBI in only 324 at-bats. If he had started the whole season, he’d have close to 20 HR and 100 RBI.

The “Anyone but Freddy Garcia” Player to Watch Next Year Award: Cole Hamels
Expect Hamels to only get better, along with the Phillies in general next year. Hamels should win at least 15 games, if not 20, and the Phillies as a whole should do even better than this year.