Outlook Thus Far

The first few weeks of the 2008 season haven't been kind to many top contenders. Many teams that were labeled as early front-runners in their divisions, or even early world series favorites, have struggled to get above, or sometimes even reach, the .500 mark. What's even more unusual is the good starts for some American League teams who were thought to be the worst in baseball (such as the Athletics and Orioles). We're over three weeks in, and if the playoffs were to start today, we'd have the Athletics, White Sox, and Marlins in!


The Phillies have had a mediocre start at best. They already weren't playing that well when Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins went down. The short-term loss of these two key players has left the Phillies without a natural leadoff man, somebody who has a history of running well and maintaining a healthy batting average. They've tried a bunch of new, odd lead-off men; late-inning defensive replacements Eric Bruntlett and So Taguchi, as well has middle-lineup outfielders Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth. What the Phillies are left with is a power-hitting lineup that has trouble (even more so than before) putting runners on base, resulting in a lot of home runs, but not a whole lot of runs.



The pitching has also been topsy-turvy thus far. Cole Hamels has pitched well in all four of his starts. Brett Myers needed some time to find a groove, as he's still adjusting after closing for a season. Adam Eaton has pitched surprisingly well thus far, while Jamie Moyer looks like he might be aging (surprise!) a bit too fast. Whether Kyle Kendrick will be able to return to his stellar form of 2007 is yet to be seen. The bullpen has met a problem similar to last year: inconsistency. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge haven't allowed an earned run yet, but beyond that, the relief pitching has been par at best.



In my mind the keys for the Phillies in 2008 will be staying healthy (last year almost every member of the entire starting lineup was injured at one point or another), and maintaining consistency. This team is loaded with talented players, but they continue to be plagued by the fact that half of them seem to be struggling or sidelined on any given day. For instance, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley have been on a tear, while Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino (prior to his injury) haven't been doing so hot. As the pennant race heats up, it's going to be imperative that the men in the starting rotation have settled into their roles, and can give consistent performances night in and night out. The bullpen, as it did in September of last year, will have to be made up of at least a few arms who can shut down opposing batters in the final three innings, and hold on to leads in critical games. Finally, the Phils have to get comfortable at the plate. You can't win a title if you constantly have two or three of your best players in a slump.

One thing that worries me is how proactive Pat Gillick will be when it comes to making necessary mid-season moves. It often seems as if Gillick is just riding out his final year with the team, waiting for retirement. Gillick passed up an opportunity to get a bargain deal on Kyle Lohse, a solid arm who could have helped to anchor down the shaky starting rotation. The $4 million or so that Lohse wanted was quite low given the typical baseball salaries these days, especially considering that he wanted 4 years and $30 million earlier, and was now willing to take a petty one year pack. Gillick did a good job when he picked up Lohse last year at the trade deadline, and that move probably made the difference in the NL East race. Gillick needs to continue to make smart moves such as the Lohse deal, capitalizing on opportunities when they come.

Lohse Finally Signed

Kyle Lohse's Scott Boras-induced nightmare is over. Lohse has reportedly signed a 1-year pact with the Cardinals, with $4 Million or $5 Million. Boras tried to sell Lohse at almost twice that much per year, over four years, but nobody bit. Lohse is lucky to even get a major-league deal at this point.

Projected 2008 Opening Day Roster (6th Edition)

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
SP Adam Eaton
LRP Chad Durbin
LRP Francisco Rosario
SU Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
CP Tom Gordon
-- Brad Lidge*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Greg Dobbs
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

*Injured, but not on Disabled List

Notes:

• It remains to be seem whether Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms will be on the Opening Day roster. Having both is a very unlikely proposition, and would likely only happen if either of them are traded, or if Eric Bruntlett was sent down to AAA. The Phillies are unlikely to opt to have more than five bench players (five are shown here). At the moment, it looks like a toss-up between the two.
• Brad Lidge will probably not be fully ready for opening day (although it's looking like he might rush himself out of excitement), meaning that Tom Gordon will move from set-up man to interim closer.
• I wouldn't say Fransico Rosario is anywhere close to a definite; there will be a lot of competition for a bullpen spot or two, and there are a lot of contenders
• Adam Eaton will probably be on a short leash. Expect Kris Benson (once he's healthy) and Chad Durbin to be next in line for that rotation spot. Shane Youman and Travis Blackley are also options.
• I like what I've seen from Joe Savery during Spring Training. A bit further down the road this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phillies give him a shot in the rotation, a la Kyle Kendrick.
• Kyle Lohse would be a huge boost, and his value has decreased from about 4 years $40 Million to 1 year $4 Million (another player screwed by agent Scott Boras). Still, the Phillies don't want to spend any more money. Lohse would be a huge boost to the rotation, and I fail to see why they won't take such an incredible bargain.

Lidge Out, Myers Moves to the Pen

Brad Lidge sustained an injury when he caught a spike in the pitcher's mound over the weekend. It has now been discovered that he damaged his meniscus, and will miss 3-6 weeks. Mitch Williams said on Comcast Sports Net that 6 weeks seems very unlikely, so that's good news.

This leaves the Phillies with a Brett Myers dilemna. It is unclear whether Myers will return to his closer role, or if Tom Gordon or another reliever will take over. Williams recommends the latter, and I agree with that. Let Myers stay in the rotation, so he can have some stability this year. I think Gordon will close, with Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero doing set-up.

Maybe the Phillies will be smart and try to get Kyle Lohse. Due to Scott Boras trying to oversell him, the demand for Lohse has dropped so greatly, that some think he may only get a minor-league deal. Quite a far cry from four years, $30 Million.

Lidge's injury is the sports gods just kicking Philly while it's down. The Flyers losing streak and loss of Simon Gagne for the season and Mike Richards for three weeks was already unbearable.

When it rains at the sports complex, it pours...

Interest in Odalis Perez

The Phillies have expressed interest in lefty starter Odalis Perez, watching him work out in the Dominican Republic. Perez will likely be competing with Kris Benson for a minor-league deal, but a decision would probably only occur after the Phillies watch Benson throw again sometime in the next week. Since a Kyle Lohse signing seems unlikely (although I feel otherwise) due to payroll concerns, and the Mets' interest, it is looking like the Phillies will move forward with their current roster, and maybe Perez or Benson.

Zolecki: Lohse Signing Unlikely

According to Inquirer Writer Todd Zolecki, a signing of Kyle Lohse is, in fact, unlikely. According to assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., the chances were "fairly low.

This isn't all that suprising given the fact that the Mets still seem interested in the righty after their trade for Johan Santana. In my mind, I'd give a deal about a 20% chance of working out.

Expect the Phillies to more actively pursue Kris Benson now that talks with Lohse are stalled.

Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.



Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Power Rankings- Week of 1/28

It's been four weeks since the last rankings, largely because of the hot stove cooling off a bit. Enjoy...

National League:

1 (6) Mets- The Mets' signing of SP Johan Santana helps them reclaim a slight advantage over their division rival, and chief competition, the Phillies. The NL East is really too close to call, but it looks as if the Mets may have the upper hand.
2 (5) Phillies- Signing 3B Pedro Feliz was a good move for the Phillies, but one would wonder why the Phillies have done little to adress their "main goal" of "pitching, pitching, pitching". The best they're hoping for right now is SP Kyle Lohse. Ruben Amaro Jr. has been offering more promises than usual, and hopefully Pat Gillick and he will fulfill them.
3 (1) Dodgers
4 (2) Padres
5 (3) Rockies
6 (5) Diamondbacks
7) Braves- Traded for OF Mark Kotsay
8) Cubs- Signed former Phillie SP Jon Lieber
9) Brewers- Signed OF Mike Cameron
10) Cardinals- Sent former Phillie 3B Scott Rolen to the Jays for 3B Troy Glaus
11) Astros- SP Roger Clemens could end up back in Houston. I'm not sure if that's a positive or not.
12) Giants
13) Nationals- C Paul Lo Duca will be out until the middle of Spring Training so the Nats signed former Phillie C Johnny Estrada just in case.
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Aren't keen to the idea of acquiring C/DH Mike Piazza, who wants to play for them and would probably be a good influence. This would require the Marlins to actually be slightly better this year, and that's what the Marlins seem to want to avoid


American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- The Yankees seem to be out of the Santana race at this point.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Rumors about a possible trade for the Orioles' SP Erik Bedard have been spreading like wildfire. It's not clear whether a deal with happen or not; false reports of one were made by MLB.com and a lot of other sources earlier this week.
7) Blue Jays- Traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen
8) White Sox
9) Twins
10) Athletics- Fans don't want OF Barry Bonds, but he's still a possibility
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Still trying to work out a deal to trade Erik Bedard
13) Rays- Signed OF Cliff Floyd
14) Royals- Signed SP Brett Tomko

Mets Get Santana

The Mets have made a tentative deal with Johan Santana, which looks to be a 6-year deal. Needless to say, this will have major implications on this year's pennant race, and pennant races for years to come. The Phillies are likely to put up bad numbers against lefties to start with.

Something good does come out of this. It looks like we're the only team in the race for Kyle Lohse, so it's likely that we'll sign him. He should be a Phillie again within the next two weeks.

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
• Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
• I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Lidge Trade

Let me preface by saying I have never been a big fan of the concept of a closing pitcher. To get a genuine closer- one that has the lights-out pitches that they use to shut teams down in the ninth inning- such as Mariano Rivera, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, or Eric Gagne you generally need to spend a lot of money. Using another pitcher as a closer (i.e. Brett Myers), one who can't deliver those killer pitches, sort of defeats the purpose of the role.


That role, in my opinion, is very often not worth the $7-8 Million dollars a year Gagne and Percival got this off-season, or the $15 Million a year Rivera is getting. To me, one upgraded inning over maybe a third of your games isn't worth it. Closers are posterboys; a closer is the guy who the catcher picks up and bear hugs when a championship is one. Their blazing fastballs draw the awe of fans and make a team look strong when they win the game. However, it's just one inning (albeit in almost a third of your games), and there's a lot you could do for your rotation or your lineup with that kind of money.



Brad Lidge is ranked 13th in MLB.com's current fantasy rankings for closers, despite coming off a mediocre, injury-plagued 2007 season. Until giving up the game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, Lidge was one of the top closers in baseball. Since then, he hasn't been so great, but the Phillies are hoping that Lidge's new start in Philadelphia will help him move on. If he does so, he can regain his confidence and hopefully begin to dominate batters in the 9th inning just as well as he once did, back in 2004 and 2005.



Lidge is up for salary arbitration. In 2007 he earned $5.35 Million, part of a one-year deal, and I suspect his earnings will be around that after arbitration. Lidge is a risk, but he's going to be a free agent after this season, meaning if he fails to meet expectations we can be done with him after one year. If he has a stellar year, though, it's possible he won't re-sign with the Phillies, and go where the best contract offer is (similarly to Aaron Rowand).



Now, despite my skepticism over the importance of a closer, I think adding Lidge was a great move for Pat Gillick to make (although I wish more moves had followed). We gave up little to get Lidge. Michael Bourn's speed and contributions to outfield depth were easily replaced with So Taguchi and Chris Snelling. Geoff Geary did fill a long-relief mode that was huge to the Phillies in September, but it's unclear if he'll continue be that good in 2008.



The reason Lidge is so vital to the Phillies is the simple fact that our bullpen is absolutely terrible. We need a strong closer to shave off that ninth inning in key games, because our bullpen is thin on talent. As a result, that one inning- given our bullpen's ERA- will more often then not cost us a run. With Lidge hopefully giving us solid 9th inning outings when needed, and Tom Gordon working at set-up man in the 8th , we’re left with fewer innings where we’re stuck with our weaker relievers. Meanwhile, Brett Myers can fill a major hole in the rotation, where hopefully he’ll be effective despite having to re-adjust after a season in the bullpen.


Is this an improvement over last year’s pitching staff? Possibly. I’m not sure if I’d rather have Myers starting and Lidge closing than Kyle Lohse starting, Geary relieving, and Myers closing, but given the amount Lohse would cost us if we re-signed him, I don’t think pursuing him is really an option. Lohse also has a career losing record, and he also had a losing record in 2007, despite his good run with the Phillies. Signing another free-agent starter was also a possibility, but this move is a higher-risk, potentially more rewarding move.

Lidge and Madson Sign, Avoiding Arbitration

Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson both signed one-year deals with the Phillies yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Lidge will get $6.35 million, and Madson $1.4 million. These figures are about what both of these guys would have gotten through arbitration, but it's always healthy to avoid the arbitration process.

The only players left on the arbitration list are Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies' current payroll is about $85 million, and after these two arbitration hearings my guess is that the payroll will jump to about $100 million- about $5 million more than last season- if not more. That would likely mean that the Phillies have room for one more big free-agent signing. At this point, it looks like the top candidates 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Kris Benson, and SP Kyle Lohse. Expect the Phillies to wait until right before spring training before making an offer, in an effort to be able to give a lower offer than they would now. Lohse would be the best candidate, especially if the Mets sign Johan Santana, but Scott Boras can be tough to deal with.

NOTE: Sorry, my math was terribly mistaken. The payroll shouldn't go any higher tht $95 million, last years mark, so possibly two notable signings will be made

Still In the Running for Lohse

Despite the Phillies claiming they were out of the running for Kyle Lohse, they are actually in the running for him (gee, haven't we seen this sort of thing before?). Lohse backed off his demand for a four-year contract, and now wants three and a vesting option. In an online chat last week, Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies are still talking to Scott Boras about a possible deal (at least unlike Pat Gillick, Amaro doesn't have his head... well at least one of them is showing initiative.


Personally, I feel a four-year deal offer would definitely be too long considering it was based solely on Lohse's late-season success. Now that it's three years, I'd probably go for it. There is a weak market for free-agent pitchers now, and Lohse is arguably the best out of all of them. Signing Lohse would allow Chad Durbin to pitch out of the bullpen, and would leave the Phillies with five reliable starters (Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, and Lohse), and Adam Eaton when he's healthy again. The added starting pitching depth is crucial, and probably the best move the Phillies could make at this point. You can't contend for a title with a shaky rotation.

Don't count out other starters on the market, such as Kris Benson either. The Phillies are probably going to wait another month or so to see what happens with Benson. If he's still available, the Phillies may be able to make him a lower offer than they could now.

Ruben Amaro Answers Questions From Fans Online

Minutes ago, Assistant General Manager Ruben Amaro answered questions from fans in a Phillies.com chat. Here are some notable tidbits of information from his answers:

• Amaro believes pitchers Scott Mathieson and Josh Outman are the farm-team players most likely to end up on the Phillies this year.
• He thinks the bullpen will be strong, if the rotation stays healthy
• The Phillies are unlikely to re-sign Jose Mesa
• He says the lineup is unlikely to change between now and training camp
• The Phillies are unlikely to sign Bartolo Colon due to reservations about his health
• The Phillies are still having "continued discussions" with Scott Boras over possibly re-signing Kyle Lohse
• The Phillies aren't interested in Josh Fogg

Update From Pat Gillick

Last night, according to the Phillies' official site, Gillick confirmed interest in Geoff Jenkins, but said that the team is no longer pursuing Mike Cameron or Kyle Lohse. No official word on the reported signing of Chad Durbin.

Projected 2008 Roster, 3rd Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kris Benson*
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Ryan Madson
MRP Fabrio Castro
MRP Clay Condrey
RP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Mike Cameron*
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• Pat Gillick raised the possibility of trading prospects for pitching a couple weeks back. This could bring Mike Mussina or another older pitcher to the Phillies.
• If Mike Cameron isn't signed, Geoff Jenkins
• It's unlikely that Adam Eaton will start the year in the rotation, as he is still rehabbing his arm. When he is back to full strength he will hopefully and probably pitch a lot better than he did in 2007. The Phillies will meanwhile try to obtain another pitcher to help fill his spot, many who are coming off injuries. Free-Agent Kris Benson is the front-runner, but an offer has reportedly been made to Kyle Lohse, who would be a better option . Fabrio Castro and J.D. Durbin seem to be the front-runners for replacing Eaton if a new player doesn't, or taking over if a starter goes down. Rule 5 draft-pick Travis Blackley is also an option. In general, at this point, it looks like the more probable alternative is looking at a bunch of guys during Spring Training and hoping that one of them looks good enough to enter the rotation.
• If Eaton goes to the minors, or to the disabled list, a reliever will probably come up to take his place on the roster (not in the rotation).
• The Phillies have a very large amount of pitching talent down in the minors, and it's probable that with or without an injury, some new faces will show up in the bullpen. It's anyone's guess who that will be.
• The bullpen looks to be a bit dicey, as the Phillies have a lot of prospects and journeymen lined up to vie for a spot in the bullpen, and besides closer Brad Lidge, Set-Up man Tom Gordon, and J.C Romero, talent in the pen is sparse.
• It's not probable that Kris Benson will join the team, but there is still a good chance that he will. The Phillies are hoping for support in the outfield as well as at third.

Player Updates

Aaron Rowand: The Phillies offered him arbitration today, a small step towards keeping him, and a good one, as it assures the Phillies draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. He currently wants 5 years, $10-$12 million a season. The Dodgers were the top suitor, but an MLB.com report suggests that the Dodgers prefer Andruw Jones. After losing out on Torii Hunter, the White Sox showed interest, but they don't want to pay that much money. The Yankees might consider it if they traded Melky Cabrera.


Hideki Kuroda: Still a possibiliy, but he has said he wants to play on the West Coast. The Dodgers look like the best suitor here, although the Mariners and other teams have shown interest. Still, we still have an okay chance, especially if Rowand isn't signed.

Jon Lieber: The Phillies have shown interest along with the Astros.

Kyle Lohse: With the money he'll probably be looking for its unlikely he will return.

Melvin Mora: If Rowand is not signed, the Phillies may trade for the Orioles' Mora, who would waive his no-trade clause if he went to a winning team (interesting how we're on this end of this situation now after so many years of players like Scott Rolen and J.D. Drew leaving for a winning team). His contract is a hefty $8 million, so the Phillies would probably have to whiff on Rowand, Kuroda, and any other big names before they'd even consider trading for him. MLBtraderumors.com denies this interest, but anything can happen with Pat Gillick.

MLBtraderumors.com also reports that the Phillies have interest Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers, Livan Hernandez, Mark Prior, Shawn Chacon, Joe Kennedy, Brian Fuentes, and A.J. Burnett.



And Some bygones...

Troy Percival: Devil Rays, 2 Years, $8 million

Randy Wolf: Padres, $ 4 million

Mike Lowell: After denying interest in him, the Phillies made an offer that was barely beaten at the last second by the Red Sox. Let this serve as an example that Pat Gillick is very unpredictable.




My Advice: Sign Aaron Rowand unless a good offer is accepted by Kuroda, but even in that case I'd try to sign Rowand as well. A premier pitcher and veteran leader are both absolute necessities, and well worth the investment.

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia


Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”


There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.


Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.


Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.




My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect