After watching him throw outside his Atlanta home, the Phillies inked oft-injured pitcher Kris Benson to a minor-league deal. Benson still has some rehabbing to do, and as a result will probably not be ready by opening day.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
The Same Old Story
We all know the Phillies are the most consistently dissapointing team in sports history. Sure, you may have forgotten the fact that lost more than 10,000 games. Even worse, in ironic fashion, we've managed to be among a very select teams to put together a winning record each of the past five years. That's actually would be a good thing... except for the fact that we've only made the playoffs once, despite our lowest winning percentage over that span being .524 in 2006.
We were constantly tortured with playoff aspirations, to the point that virtually nobody truly believed in the Phillies in 2007 until Brett Myers struck out Willy Mo Pena to clinch the division title. Oh, and getting swept in the NLDS? Never happened. It was just a bad dream. The Phillies won the NL East, but in many fans' minds, the playoffs were irrelevant, because now, we have hope.
Despite our new faith in the Phillies, they are still mostly the same team as last year. If they weren't, you would surely see them at #1 in my power rankings. Instead, despite the fact that their lineup has three of the very best players in the National League, and the fact that managed to win a title last year with the same lineup doesn't seem to carry the weight it would for any other team.
In 2007 we managed to overcome the powerful Mets and get the 2nd seed in the National League despite almost every one of our players being injured at some point. Need a very brief refresher?
- Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
- Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
- Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
- Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
- Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
- Freddy Garcia: 6/8-End of Season
- John Lieber: 6/20-End of Season
- Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
- Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
- Ryan Madson: 7/29-End Of Season
Speaking of Kendrick, we also have to worry about the formidable "sophmore curse", which involves a skilled second-year player transitioning from "beginners luck" into taking on a regular role on a team. This curse isn't superstitious at all- it's a real problem that comes about more often that you may think.
Now, as if Kendrick isn't worrisome enough, look at the rest of our rotation. Cole Hamels has been on and off the DL for years, for reasons ranging from breaking his arm to getting in bar fights. Jamie Moyer is so old he could drop dead any second (although so does Brett Favre). Brett Myers was 0-3 as a starter last year. Adam Eaton still has to recover from an injury that hurt him a lot last year. Also, if Kyle Lohse comes back (an unlikely prospect), don't forget he had a losing record last year. And now, with the Mets' addition of Johan Santana, things could get even uglier for the Phillies.
Friday, February 8, 2008
A "Blast" From the Past
When the Phillies won the NL East last year, the echoes of doubters calling the Phillies a "Choke Team", one that will never win the big game, finally subsided. That day put a bit of hope in all of us, because even though the 24-year-old "Curse of Billy Penn" had not oficially subsided, we all began to believe in Philly's sports teams. The integral part of the curse, our doubt, is gone, and although unofficially so, I believe that curse is, in essence, as good as history. But to remind everyone of how terrible the curse once was, I've posted this article- one of many over the years that provided false hope that the Phillies were the team to beat.
Just remember as you read it the three events that ended the curse:
- Jimmy Rollins says the Phillies are the team-to-beat
- Four-Game Sweep of the Mets on August 30th
- Capturing the NL East title
One final note: to those of you say the Rockies series proves we're still cursed, or who will say we're still cursed if Rollin's prediction of winning 100 games being a game too high, you can all take your pessimism and walk over to Lincoln Financial Field. You don't win them all, even if you aren't cursed. Nobody's perfect, but that doesn't mean that everyone is cursed.
*My reaction is placed after the article*
Five reasons to pick the Phillies
By Jayson Stark of ESPN.com
Updated: September 16, 2003
Of course, the Phillies are going to win the wild card and go on to the National League playoffs. They have no choice. It's their destiny.
One last stand at the Vet? It could be a house of horrors for Florida.
It's the Law of the 3.
As far back as anybody can remember -- as long as the anybodys in question can't remember back to the 1970s -- the Phillies always go to the playoffs in years ending in a "3." They're required to, by law. The Law of the 3.
In 1993, they went from last place the year before to the World Series. In 1983, they were only two games over .500 on Labor Day, then rallied improbably to go to the World Series. And now it's 2003. So what choice do they have? They have to win. It's the law. But just for the heck of it, here are five other reasons:
1. Experience- True, the Phillies have made a lot more visits to Pat's Steaks over the last 20 years than they've made to the playoffs. Nevertheless, 12 current Phillies have appeared in a postseason series, vs. eight Marlins. And of those 12 Phillies, 10 play a prominent role of some kind or other.
Jim Thome and Placido Polanco are regulars. So is David Bell, who could be back for the final week. Kevin Millwood fronts the rotation. And five Phillies relievers have postseason experience. Only the backup catchers -- Todd Pratt and Kelly Stinnett -- are irregulars. And Pratt, who is available to pinch-hit, once hit an extra-inning home run that won a playoff series, for the 1999 Mets.
The Marlins, on the other hand, have just two everyday players who have batted in a postseason game -- Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Conine. Of the other six, only Todd Hollandworth has more than 101 at-bats or a dozen innings pitched as a Marlin. And isn't it supposed to be that big-game experience that shows up at times like this?
2. Jim Thome- What Barry Bonds is to the Giants, Thome is to the Phillies ... except Thome's teammates actually like him.
Thome is already the first Phillie in two decades to hit 40 homers in a season. He's about to become the third Phillie in the last 48 years to drive in 120 runs (joining only Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski). He owns 17 postseason home runs -- which are 17 more than all the Marlins combined (and tied with Bernie Williams for the most among active players). Thome's career postseason home run ratio (one every 12.5 plate appearances) is second only to Babe Ruth (10.8).
But most important, says one scout, "he's a big-game player. He'll be the best player on the field every night. Players like him rise to the occasion in these games." If he does, that'll be OK with the Phillies. They're 27-8 when he homers. And the Marlins' rotation and bullpen are both heavily right-handed.
3. Left-right offensive balance- Speaking of Thome, he has hit 35 more home runs this year than all of the Marlins' left-handed hitters combined. Yep, the Fish have hit exactly five left-handed homers all season -- and one of them was by Dontrelle Willis. (Three were by Hollandsworth and one by Juan Pierre.)
So it's no surprise that the Phillies are 16 games over .500 (70-54) in games started by a right-hander, while the Marlins are only four games over (59-55). The Phillies bat .262 against right-handers and .264 against left-handers, while the Marlins' splits are .260-.288.
And guess which hand all three Phillies starting pitchers will throw the baseball with in their three games in Philadelphia this week? That would be the right hand. And best we can tell, the Marlins will face only three left-handed starters (against whom they're 24-11) the rest of the season.
4. The Vet- The not-exactly-beloved Veterans Stadium doesn't have long to live now: Two more weeks, unless the playoffs stop by. Well, Camden Yards, it isn't. Pac Bell, it isn't. Heck, Stade Olympique, it isn't. There's a good chance nobody in baseball, football or any other activity known to man will miss it. But the Phillies will.
They just finished their most torturous schedule stretch of the year: 27 games in 27 days in seven different cities. Only a week of that marathon was spent at home. But now, of their remaining 13 games, the Phillies play 10 of them at the Vet. And at the Vet, the Phillies are 16-4 since July 29, and 11-1 since Aug. 13.
Since their only loss was to the Red Sox on Labor Day, they haven't lost to a National League team at home in more than a month. After the Marlins leave, the Cincinnati/Louisville Reds visit for three. After a day off, the Phillies play three in Florida, then close up the Vet with three emotional games against Atlanta.
As the Vet's life span dwindles, the crowds will grow, the memories will flow, and the passion will reverberate. And the Phillies have fed off that all year. Since their home-opener loss to the Pirates, they're 13-4 at home in front of crowds over 35,000. Of course, Florida swept them at home in July. But the Marlins haven't won in Pennsylvania since. OK, so they haven't played in Philadelphia since, either. But they did get swept in Pittsburgh last month.
5. The Eagles-In some cities, maybe it wouldn't be a good thing for the local baseball team to have the local football team start its season playing more like Louisiana-Lafayette than like the next Super Bowl champ. But in Philadelphia, life is different.
In Philadelphia, the Eagles' crummy start just means people get nastier and angrier and more frantic than usual. So they can either spend the next two weeks snarling at the Eagles, or they can turn to other stuff.
The Phillies could very well be that other stuff, especially if they keep winning, and the entire city isn't washed into the sea by a hurricane. In a city desperate to win something, anything, the Phillies have a chance to capture the hearts of a wounded public, replace that Eagle-induced pain with a road-to-October joy and send the Vet to the dynamite crew with a special triumphant glow.
Then again, they could also go 0-12, finish fourth in the NL East and force all the suicide hotlines to go to 24-hour operation. But this is supposed to be the Why-Good-Stuff-Will-Happen-to-the-Phillies section of this package. So forget you just read that last sentence. Or else.
------
After reading this article, you probably think I am insane to say we aren't cursed any more. High expectations seem to be the norm in Philadelphia, and so does dissapointment. However, if you remember, nobody in Philly ever really believed in the Phillies, and 2003 was no exception. However, I think that our NL East title last year changed everything. The fact that we now believe in the Phillies means that the curse is no longer valid, but rather as good as dead.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Whew, That Was Close
The Boston Herald is reporting that Curt Schilling has sustained a torn rotator cuff, the origin of which is unknown, as is the time when the injury occured. Schilling may miss the entire season if he needs surgery, and given his age, such an injury might result in Schilling calling it quits.
Despire Schilling's close ties to Philadelphia and the Phillies' organization, there is no doubt that Pat Gillick is breathing a sigh of unexpected relief. Early in the off-season, it looked as if the Phillies were going to sign Schilling. The Sox are trying to void Schilling's $8 million dollar contract that they reached with him back in November, but picture what would have happened had the Phillies signed him. Brett Myers would likely still be the closer since Brad Lidge would have never been acquired, and the Phillies wouldn't have had the money to spend on Pedro Feliz, or maybe even Geoff Jenkins. Things would have taken the usual Phillies'-turn-for-the-worse, but it seems we've got lady luck on our side this time, leaving this fan saying, "What Curse?"
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
"Projected" 2009 Roster
We're coming up on the final week before Spring Training 2008... but it's never too early to think about 2009. With that in mind, I present to you the Phillies projected 2009 25-man roster...
SP Cole Hamels (L)
SP Brett Myers
SP Curt Schilling
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Clay Condrey
MRP Mike Zagurski (L)
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Brian Fuentes (L)
CP Joe Nathan
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Pedro Feliz
3B Greg Dobbs
CF Shane Victorino
LF Milton Bradley
RF Geoff Jenkins
OF T.J. Bohn
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Jason Jamarillo
Monday, February 4, 2008
Interest in Odalis Perez
The Phillies have expressed interest in lefty starter Odalis Perez, watching him work out in the Dominican Republic. Perez will likely be competing with Kris Benson for a minor-league deal, but a decision would probably only occur after the Phillies watch Benson throw again sometime in the next week. Since a Kyle Lohse signing seems unlikely (although I feel otherwise) due to payroll concerns, and the Mets' interest, it is looking like the Phillies will move forward with their current roster, and maybe Perez or Benson.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Zolecki: Lohse Signing Unlikely
According to Inquirer Writer Todd Zolecki, a signing of Kyle Lohse is, in fact, unlikely. According to assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., the chances were "fairly low.
This isn't all that suprising given the fact that the Mets still seem interested in the righty after their trade for Johan Santana. In my mind, I'd give a deal about a 20% chance of working out.
Expect the Phillies to more actively pursue Kris Benson now that talks with Lohse are stalled.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Hot Stove Update
With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:
- Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
- The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
- For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
- The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
- The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
- Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
- The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
- There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition
Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...
1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.
2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.
3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.
4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.
5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.
Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Power Rankings- Week of 1/28
It's been four weeks since the last rankings, largely because of the hot stove cooling off a bit. Enjoy...
National League:
1 (6) Mets- The Mets' signing of SP Johan Santana helps them reclaim a slight advantage over their division rival, and chief competition, the Phillies. The NL East is really too close to call, but it looks as if the Mets may have the upper hand.
2 (5) Phillies- Signing 3B Pedro Feliz was a good move for the Phillies, but one would wonder why the Phillies have done little to adress their "main goal" of "pitching, pitching, pitching". The best they're hoping for right now is SP Kyle Lohse. Ruben Amaro Jr. has been offering more promises than usual, and hopefully Pat Gillick and he will fulfill them.
3 (1) Dodgers
4 (2) Padres
5 (3) Rockies
6 (5) Diamondbacks
7) Braves- Traded for OF Mark Kotsay
8) Cubs- Signed former Phillie SP Jon Lieber
9) Brewers- Signed OF Mike Cameron
10) Cardinals- Sent former Phillie 3B Scott Rolen to the Jays for 3B Troy Glaus
11) Astros- SP Roger Clemens could end up back in Houston. I'm not sure if that's a positive or not.
12) Giants
13) Nationals- C Paul Lo Duca will be out until the middle of Spring Training so the Nats signed former Phillie C Johnny Estrada just in case.
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Aren't keen to the idea of acquiring C/DH Mike Piazza, who wants to play for them and would probably be a good influence. This would require the Marlins to actually be slightly better this year, and that's what the Marlins seem to want to avoid
American League
1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- The Yankees seem to be out of the Santana race at this point.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Rumors about a possible trade for the Orioles' SP Erik Bedard have been spreading like wildfire. It's not clear whether a deal with happen or not; false reports of one were made by MLB.com and a lot of other sources earlier this week.
7) Blue Jays- Traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen
8) White Sox
9) Twins
10) Athletics- Fans don't want OF Barry Bonds, but he's still a possibility
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Still trying to work out a deal to trade Erik Bedard
13) Rays- Signed OF Cliff Floyd
14) Royals- Signed SP Brett Tomko
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Mets Get Santana
The Mets have made a tentative deal with Johan Santana, which looks to be a 6-year deal. Needless to say, this will have major implications on this year's pennant race, and pennant races for years to come. The Phillies are likely to put up bad numbers against lefties to start with.
Something good does come out of this. It looks like we're the only team in the race for Kyle Lohse, so it's likely that we'll sign him. He should be a Phillie again within the next two weeks.
Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition
SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
Notes:
- It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
- Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
- I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Phillies Reportedly Sign Feliz
ESPN.com, and the Phillies official website report that the Phillies have agreed to a two-year pact with free-agent Third Baseman Pedro Feliz.
This deal doesn't come as a suprise to anyone, and leaves the Phillies with one of the best rosters in baseball. Feliz is a .253 batter, with 20 homers and 72 RBIs. It's a far cry from the Mike Lowell deal that almost went down, but Feliz is the best Third Baseman still on the market.
I applaud this move, if and only if the Phillies still plan on acquiring another reliable pitcher. I feel like our third base situation has been made to look like worse than it actually is, and that the Phillies aren't doing enough to actively pursue pitchers.
Then again, what does anybody know when it comes to Pat Gillick. Maybe Sammy Sosa could even be next, with his .328 average against lefties, since Gillick seems to keep making broken promises about signing pitchers.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Lidge Trade
Let me preface by saying I have never been a big fan of the concept of a closing pitcher. To get a genuine closer- one that has the lights-out pitches that they use to shut teams down in the ninth inning- such as Mariano Rivera, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, or Eric Gagne you generally need to spend a lot of money. Using another pitcher as a closer (i.e. Brett Myers), one who can't deliver those killer pitches, sort of defeats the purpose of the role.
That role, in my opinion, is very often not worth the $7-8 Million dollars a year Gagne and Percival got this off-season, or the $15 Million a year Rivera is getting. To me, one upgraded inning over maybe a third of your games isn't worth it. Closers are posterboys; a closer is the guy who the catcher picks up and bear hugs when a championship is one. Their blazing fastballs draw the awe of fans and make a team look strong when they win the game. However, it's just one inning (albeit in almost a third of your games), and there's a lot you could do for your rotation or your lineup with that kind of money.
Brad Lidge is ranked 13th in MLB.com's current fantasy rankings for closers, despite coming off a mediocre, injury-plagued 2007 season. Until giving up the game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, Lidge was one of the top closers in baseball. Since then, he hasn't been so great, but the Phillies are hoping that Lidge's new start in Philadelphia will help him move on. If he does so, he can regain his confidence and hopefully begin to dominate batters in the 9th inning just as well as he once did, back in 2004 and 2005.
Lidge is up for salary arbitration. In 2007 he earned $5.35 Million, part of a one-year deal, and I suspect his earnings will be around that after arbitration. Lidge is a risk, but he's going to be a free agent after this season, meaning if he fails to meet expectations we can be done with him after one year. If he has a stellar year, though, it's possible he won't re-sign with the Phillies, and go where the best contract offer is (similarly to Aaron Rowand).
Now, despite my skepticism over the importance of a closer, I think adding Lidge was a great move for Pat Gillick to make (although I wish more moves had followed). We gave up little to get Lidge. Michael Bourn's speed and contributions to outfield depth were easily replaced with So Taguchi and Chris Snelling. Geoff Geary did fill a long-relief mode that was huge to the Phillies in September, but it's unclear if he'll continue be that good in 2008.
The reason Lidge is so vital to the Phillies is the simple fact that our bullpen is absolutely terrible. We need a strong closer to shave off that ninth inning in key games, because our bullpen is thin on talent. As a result, that one inning- given our bullpen's ERA- will more often then not cost us a run. With Lidge hopefully giving us solid 9th inning outings when needed, and Tom Gordon working at set-up man in the 8th , we’re left with fewer innings where we’re stuck with our weaker relievers. Meanwhile, Brett Myers can fill a major hole in the rotation, where hopefully he’ll be effective despite having to re-adjust after a season in the bullpen.
Is this an improvement over last year’s pitching staff? Possibly. I’m not sure if I’d rather have Myers starting and Lidge closing than Kyle Lohse starting, Geary relieving, and Myers closing, but given the amount Lohse would cost us if we re-signed him, I don’t think pursuing him is really an option. Lohse also has a career losing record, and he also had a losing record in 2007, despite his good run with the Phillies. Signing another free-agent starter was also a possibility, but this move is a higher-risk, potentially more rewarding move.
