Power Rankings- Week of 2/25

It's been a while since the last rankings, coming later than usual in the week, as I've been very busy. Here are my official, pre-spring training power-rankings...

National League:

1 (1) Mets- Lost their first Spring Training game yesterday, while the Phillies won. Frivolous, maybe, but it's not a great start for the Mets, coming off their collapse.
2 (3) Dodgers
3 (4) Padres
4 (2) Phillies- It's no surprise that an overexcited, oft-injured closer Brad Lidge hurt his knee pitching during Spring Training a few days back. In his absence, which could extend past opening day, the Phillies will likely have to move Tom Gordon to closer. Lidge's injury also raises the question of whether he can remain healthy this season which is key as Lidge is the keystone of the Phillies pitching staff. He has blamed his lackluster 2006 and 2007 campaigns on lingering injuries (rather than the Albert Pujols home run in the 2005 NLCS), making one wonder if 2008 will be any different.
5 ) Rockies
6) Diamondbacks
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals
11) Astros
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Signing OF Luis Gonzalez gives them veteran leadership, but I doubt Gonzo will have much of a short-term effect.


American League

1) Red Sox- Signed SP Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, to a minor-league deal. Sounds like the ideal sleeper pick to me...
2) Yankees- Added 3B/IF Morgan Ensberg earlier in the month. He could make a run at their First Base position currently looking to be filled by Shelley Duncan or Jason Giambi
3) Angels- CP Francisco Rodriguez, aka K-Rod, wants out of Anaheim- ehem, Los Angeles- after this year, due to some sour contract talks and an arbitration hearing. He's making $10 Million this year.
4) Indians
5 (6) Mariners- Their addition of SP Erik Bedard pushes them past the Tigers. Look for the Mariners, along with the Tigers and Indians, to be pretty much the only teams that will give a real challenge to the Red Sox or Yankees (whoever is in second in the AL East) in the Wild Card race
6 (5) Tigers- Ticket sales have been extremely successful for the club, probably due to the excitement over their acquisition of 3B Miguel Cabrera and SP Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins.
7) Blue Jays- Apparently new Blue Jay 3B Scott Rolen would have been open to being traded to the Phillies. The reality here is that the fans hate him; and it seems to be an awful coincidence that his interest in returning rises during the off-season after we won the division crown.
8) White Sox- The White Sox are stuck in the AL cellar that has proven almost as inescapable as a black hole, but they're poking their head out. Things look to be on the rise for the Sox, who two years after winning a world series, finished 72-90 last year.
9) Twins- Johan Santana is gone, but the Twins still have are in what I like to call AL Purgatory. They still have some falling to do before they drop into the fiery abyss below them.
10) Athletics- Signed semi-retired closer Keith Foulke to a one-year deal. Foulke signed with the Indians last year, but retired before opening day. You may remember him as the pitcher who pitched the last out in the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
11) Rangers
12 (13) Rays- Barry Bonds could be on his way to Tampa Bay. Bonds would likely be a distraction during the season, but then again, what is there to distract them from?
13 (12) Orioles- Trading away SP Erik Bedard moves the Orioles even deeper into the AL cellar. With so many washed up has-beens on the team, however, I think the O's could make some splashes if they play their cards right
13 (14) Royals

Lidge Out, Myers Moves to the Pen

Brad Lidge sustained an injury when he caught a spike in the pitcher's mound over the weekend. It has now been discovered that he damaged his meniscus, and will miss 3-6 weeks. Mitch Williams said on Comcast Sports Net that 6 weeks seems very unlikely, so that's good news.

This leaves the Phillies with a Brett Myers dilemna. It is unclear whether Myers will return to his closer role, or if Tom Gordon or another reliever will take over. Williams recommends the latter, and I agree with that. Let Myers stay in the rotation, so he can have some stability this year. I think Gordon will close, with Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero doing set-up.

Maybe the Phillies will be smart and try to get Kyle Lohse. Due to Scott Boras trying to oversell him, the demand for Lohse has dropped so greatly, that some think he may only get a minor-league deal. Quite a far cry from four years, $30 Million.

Lidge's injury is the sports gods just kicking Philly while it's down. The Flyers losing streak and loss of Simon Gagne for the season and Mike Richards for three weeks was already unbearable.

When it rains at the sports complex, it pours...

Phillies Sign Kris Benson

After watching him throw outside his Atlanta home, the Phillies inked oft-injured pitcher Kris Benson to a minor-league deal. Benson still has some rehabbing to do, and as a result will probably not be ready by opening day.

The Same Old Story

We all know the Phillies are the most consistently dissapointing team in sports history. Sure, you may have forgotten the fact that lost more than 10,000 games. Even worse, in ironic fashion, we've managed to be among a very select teams to put together a winning record each of the past five years. That's actually would be a good thing... except for the fact that we've only made the playoffs once, despite our lowest winning percentage over that span being .524 in 2006.

We were constantly tortured with playoff aspirations, to the point that virtually nobody truly believed in the Phillies in 2007 until Brett Myers struck out Willy Mo Pena to clinch the division title. Oh, and getting swept in the NLDS? Never happened. It was just a bad dream. The Phillies won the NL East, but in many fans' minds, the playoffs were irrelevant, because now, we have hope.


Despite our new faith in the Phillies, they are still mostly the same team as last year. If they weren't, you would surely see them at #1 in my power rankings. Instead, despite the fact that their lineup has three of the very best players in the National League, and the fact that managed to win a title last year with the same lineup doesn't seem to carry the weight it would for any other team.

In 2007 we managed to overcome the powerful Mets and get the 2nd seed in the National League despite almost every one of our players being injured at some point. Need a very brief refresher?

• Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
• Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
• Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
• Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
• Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
• Freddy Garcia: 6/8-End of Season
• John Lieber: 6/20-End of Season
• Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
• Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
• Ryan Madson: 7/29-End Of Season
  

Unfortunately, the skepticism surrounding Philadelphia's teams has always caused everyone from the casual fan to the senior reporter to come to expect something to go wrong. As injuries go, the Phillies, as they stand, would have massive problems if one of their key pitchers goes down. We were so comfortable with our pitching last year that we had a 6-man rotation at one point. Look at what we ended up with. If it weren't for Kyle Kendrick, who knows what would have happened to us.

Speaking of Kendrick, we also have to worry about the formidable "sophmore curse", which involves a skilled second-year player transitioning from "beginners luck" into taking on a regular role on a team. This curse isn't superstitious at all- it's a real problem that comes about more often that you may think.

Now, as if Kendrick isn't worrisome enough, look at the rest of our rotation. Cole Hamels has been on and off the DL for years, for reasons ranging from breaking his arm to getting in bar fights. Jamie Moyer is so old he could drop dead any second (although so does Brett Favre). Brett Myers was 0-3 as a starter last year. Adam Eaton still has to recover from an injury that hurt him a lot last year. Also, if Kyle Lohse comes back (an unlikely prospect), don't forget he had a losing record last year. And now, with the Mets' addition of Johan Santana, things could get even uglier for the Phillies.

A "Blast" From the Past

When the Phillies won the NL East last year, the echoes of doubters calling the Phillies a "Choke Team", one that will never win the big game, finally subsided. That day put a bit of hope in all of us, because even though the 24-year-old "Curse of Billy Penn" had not oficially subsided, we all began to believe in Philly's sports teams. The integral part of the curse, our doubt, is gone, and although unofficially so, I believe that curse is, in essence, as good as history. But to remind everyone of how terrible the curse once was, I've posted this article- one of many over the years that provided false hope that the Phillies were the team to beat.

Just remember as you read it the three events that ended the curse:

1. Jimmy Rollins says the Phillies are the team-to-beat
2. Four-Game Sweep of the Mets on August 30th
3. Capturing the NL East title

One final note: to those of you say the Rockies series proves we're still cursed, or who will say we're still cursed if Rollin's prediction of winning 100 games being a game too high, you can all take your pessimism and walk over to Lincoln Financial Field. You don't win them all, even if you aren't cursed. Nobody's perfect, but that doesn't mean that everyone is cursed.

*My reaction is placed after the article*

Five reasons to pick the Phillies

By Jayson Stark of ESPN.com
Updated: September 16, 2003

Of course, the Phillies are going to win the wild card and go on to the National League playoffs. They have no choice. It's their destiny.

One last stand at the Vet? It could be a house of horrors for Florida.
It's the Law of the 3.

As far back as anybody can remember -- as long as the anybodys in question can't remember back to the 1970s -- the Phillies always go to the playoffs in years ending in a "3." They're required to, by law. The Law of the 3.

In 1993, they went from last place the year before to the World Series. In 1983, they were only two games over .500 on Labor Day, then rallied improbably to go to the World Series. And now it's 2003. So what choice do they have? They have to win. It's the law. But just for the heck of it, here are five other reasons:

1. Experience- True, the Phillies have made a lot more visits to Pat's Steaks over the last 20 years than they've made to the playoffs. Nevertheless, 12 current Phillies have appeared in a postseason series, vs. eight Marlins. And of those 12 Phillies, 10 play a prominent role of some kind or other.

Jim Thome and Placido Polanco are regulars. So is David Bell, who could be back for the final week. Kevin Millwood fronts the rotation. And five Phillies relievers have postseason experience. Only the backup catchers -- Todd Pratt and Kelly Stinnett -- are irregulars. And Pratt, who is available to pinch-hit, once hit an extra-inning home run that won a playoff series, for the 1999 Mets.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have just two everyday players who have batted in a postseason game -- Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Conine. Of the other six, only Todd Hollandworth has more than 101 at-bats or a dozen innings pitched as a Marlin. And isn't it supposed to be that big-game experience that shows up at times like this?

2. Jim Thome- What Barry Bonds is to the Giants, Thome is to the Phillies ... except Thome's teammates actually like him.

Thome is already the first Phillie in two decades to hit 40 homers in a season. He's about to become the third Phillie in the last 48 years to drive in 120 runs (joining only Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski). He owns 17 postseason home runs -- which are 17 more than all the Marlins combined (and tied with Bernie Williams for the most among active players). Thome's career postseason home run ratio (one every 12.5 plate appearances) is second only to Babe Ruth (10.8).

But most important, says one scout, "he's a big-game player. He'll be the best player on the field every night. Players like him rise to the occasion in these games." If he does, that'll be OK with the Phillies. They're 27-8 when he homers. And the Marlins' rotation and bullpen are both heavily right-handed.

3. Left-right offensive balance- Speaking of Thome, he has hit 35 more home runs this year than all of the Marlins' left-handed hitters combined. Yep, the Fish have hit exactly five left-handed homers all season -- and one of them was by Dontrelle Willis. (Three were by Hollandsworth and one by Juan Pierre.)

So it's no surprise that the Phillies are 16 games over .500 (70-54) in games started by a right-hander, while the Marlins are only four games over (59-55). The Phillies bat .262 against right-handers and .264 against left-handers, while the Marlins' splits are .260-.288.

And guess which hand all three Phillies starting pitchers will throw the baseball with in their three games in Philadelphia this week? That would be the right hand. And best we can tell, the Marlins will face only three left-handed starters (against whom they're 24-11) the rest of the season.

4. The Vet- The not-exactly-beloved Veterans Stadium doesn't have long to live now: Two more weeks, unless the playoffs stop by. Well, Camden Yards, it isn't. Pac Bell, it isn't. Heck, Stade Olympique, it isn't. There's a good chance nobody in baseball, football or any other activity known to man will miss it. But the Phillies will.

They just finished their most torturous schedule stretch of the year: 27 games in 27 days in seven different cities. Only a week of that marathon was spent at home. But now, of their remaining 13 games, the Phillies play 10 of them at the Vet. And at the Vet, the Phillies are 16-4 since July 29, and 11-1 since Aug. 13.

Since their only loss was to the Red Sox on Labor Day, they haven't lost to a National League team at home in more than a month. After the Marlins leave, the Cincinnati/Louisville Reds visit for three. After a day off, the Phillies play three in Florida, then close up the Vet with three emotional games against Atlanta.

As the Vet's life span dwindles, the crowds will grow, the memories will flow, and the passion will reverberate. And the Phillies have fed off that all year. Since their home-opener loss to the Pirates, they're 13-4 at home in front of crowds over 35,000. Of course, Florida swept them at home in July. But the Marlins haven't won in Pennsylvania since. OK, so they haven't played in Philadelphia since, either. But they did get swept in Pittsburgh last month.

5. The Eagles-In some cities, maybe it wouldn't be a good thing for the local baseball team to have the local football team start its season playing more like Louisiana-Lafayette than like the next Super Bowl champ. But in Philadelphia, life is different.

In Philadelphia, the Eagles' crummy start just means people get nastier and angrier and more frantic than usual. So they can either spend the next two weeks snarling at the Eagles, or they can turn to other stuff.

The Phillies could very well be that other stuff, especially if they keep winning, and the entire city isn't washed into the sea by a hurricane. In a city desperate to win something, anything, the Phillies have a chance to capture the hearts of a wounded public, replace that Eagle-induced pain with a road-to-October joy and send the Vet to the dynamite crew with a special triumphant glow.

Then again, they could also go 0-12, finish fourth in the NL East and force all the suicide hotlines to go to 24-hour operation. But this is supposed to be the Why-Good-Stuff-Will-Happen-to-the-Phillies section of this package. So forget you just read that last sentence. Or else.

------

After reading this article, you probably think I am insane to say we aren't cursed any more. High expectations seem to be the norm in Philadelphia, and so does dissapointment. However, if you remember, nobody in Philly ever really believed in the Phillies, and 2003 was no exception. However, I think that our NL East title last year changed everything. The fact that we now believe in the Phillies means that the curse is no longer valid, but rather as good as dead.

Whew, That Was Close

The Boston Herald is reporting that Curt Schilling has sustained a torn rotator cuff, the origin of which is unknown, as is the time when the injury occured. Schilling may miss the entire season if he needs surgery, and given his age, such an injury might result in Schilling calling it quits.

Despire Schilling's close ties to Philadelphia and the Phillies' organization, there is no doubt that Pat Gillick is breathing a sigh of unexpected relief. Early in the off-season, it looked as if the Phillies were going to sign Schilling. The Sox are trying to void Schilling's $8 million dollar contract that they reached with him back in November, but picture what would have happened had the Phillies signed him. Brett Myers would likely still be the closer since Brad Lidge would have never been acquired, and the Phillies wouldn't have had the money to spend on Pedro Feliz, or maybe even Geoff Jenkins. Things would have taken the usual Phillies'-turn-for-the-worse, but it seems we've got lady luck on our side this time, leaving this fan saying, "What Curse?"

"Projected" 2009 Roster

We're coming up on the final week before Spring Training 2008... but it's never too early to think about 2009. With that in mind, I present to you the Phillies projected 2009 25-man roster...

SP Cole Hamels (L)
SP Brett Myers
SP Curt Schilling
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Clay Condrey
MRP Mike Zagurski (L)
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Brian Fuentes (L)
CP Joe Nathan
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Pedro Feliz
3B Greg Dobbs
CF Shane Victorino
LF Milton Bradley
RF Geoff Jenkins
OF T.J. Bohn
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Jason Jamarillo

Interest in Odalis Perez

The Phillies have expressed interest in lefty starter Odalis Perez, watching him work out in the Dominican Republic. Perez will likely be competing with Kris Benson for a minor-league deal, but a decision would probably only occur after the Phillies watch Benson throw again sometime in the next week. Since a Kyle Lohse signing seems unlikely (although I feel otherwise) due to payroll concerns, and the Mets' interest, it is looking like the Phillies will move forward with their current roster, and maybe Perez or Benson.

Zolecki: Lohse Signing Unlikely

According to Inquirer Writer Todd Zolecki, a signing of Kyle Lohse is, in fact, unlikely. According to assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., the chances were "fairly low.

This isn't all that suprising given the fact that the Mets still seem interested in the righty after their trade for Johan Santana. In my mind, I'd give a deal about a 20% chance of working out.

Expect the Phillies to more actively pursue Kris Benson now that talks with Lohse are stalled.

Hot Stove Update

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:

• Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
• The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
• For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
• The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
• The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
• Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
• The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
• There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.