Power Rankings- Week of 12/17

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers- The signing of Hideki Kuroda will just make the best team in the league even better.
2 (2) Rockies- LaTroy Hawkins' signing with the Yankees weakens the bullpen, but if the Rockies bullpen continues to play like they did in September and October, they'll have little to worry about.
3 (3) Phillies- Pat Gillick is apparently hibernating this winter. By the time he wakes up for spring, the Fightins could be unimproved from 2007, and drop a few places here. Hopefully, he'll wake up and make a deal for Mike Cameron or Geoff Jenkins, and/or a worthwhile pitcher.
4 (5) Padres- Added now former Phillie Tadahito Iguchi, and Jim Edmonds.
5 (7) Diamondbacks- Jose Valverde is gone, but the addition of the 2007 AL All-Star Starter Dan Haren pulls the Diamondbacks into the top 5.
6 (4) Mets
7 (6) Braves
8 (10) Cubs- The big signing of Kosuke Fukudome pushes the Cubs to the top of the NL Central, just ahead of the Brewers.
9 (8) Brewers- The Brewers just signed closer Eric Gagne to a 1 year, $10 Million deal (I guess even I had underestimated his market value. They're gambling that Gagne will bounce back after a surprisingly bad run as the set-up man for the Red Sox, and now he's been mentioned in the Mitchell Report.
10 (9) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros- Two days after trading Miguel Tejada, Ed Wade wakes up from him shame-nap to find Tejada mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Ineffectual, maybe, but doesn't this make you wonder if Ed Wade was the one who was cursed, not the Phillies?
12 (14) Giants- Aaron Rowand finds a new home there. Maybe his influence will be a little bit better than that which Barry Bonds had, but I don't think he was worth the money considering that the Giants aren't going to be making any championship runs any time soon, and he cost them a lot.
13 (12) Nationals
14 (15) Reds
15 (16) Pirates
17 (unranked)- Sacramento RiverCats
18 (unranked)- Oregon State Beavers
19 (13) Marlins- After trading away Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are now so incredibly bad that they are now ranked 18th... despite the fact that there are only 16 teams in the National League. When your highest paid player is Kevin Gregg, you either have Jesus himself negotiating your contracts, or your just plain suck.


American League

1) Red Sox- Johan Santana could still be on the way, although he's reportedly going to want around $140 Million for 7 years. Imagine Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield as your starting rotation, and then realize you are not dreaming or watching the all-star game, that this could soon be a reality. Sox are #1 by leaps and bounds. Conspiracy theorists are going crazy over how the Sox are not mentioned in the report, given that George Mitchell is on the Sox board of directors.
2) Yankees- Adding LaTroy Hawkins to an otherwise weak bullpen (especially given the fact that this is the Yankees) was a good move. They're also talking with Santana now.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5 (6) Tigers
6 (5) Mariners
7) Blue Jays- Recently added SS David Eckstein
8) Athletics- Dealing Dan Haren definetely has an effect on the teams' potency, but they don't drop them too far into the land of non-contender AL teams. Perhaps the possible addition of Barry Bonds could end up being a suprise blessing for the A's.
9) Twins- If they lose Santana they will drop, but for now the Twins will stay put.
10) White Sox
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Trading Miguel Tejada was a good move, sacrificing a good current player for a brighter future. Fortunately for them, they'd have to lose a lot more than him to drop to the cellar of the American League where the Rays and Royals are stuck.
13) Rays
14) Royals

Some News & Updates

• Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox is the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year, winning in a landslide with 132 points, besting Damon Young (Devil Rays) who had 56. Daisuke Matsuzaka only got 12 points putting him in fourth.
  
• Ryan Braun won an extremely close race in the NL Rookie of the Year race with 128 points over Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies who had 126 votes. Coming in a very distant third is Hunter Pence (Astros) who had 15. The Phillies' own Kyle Kendrick came in fifth with 7 votes. Considering where the Phillies would be without his stellar performance coming out of AA, I'm suprised Kendrick did this poorly- although he was the only candidate other than Braun and Tulowitzki to get a second-place vote.
• The Devil Rays unveiled their new logo and "new" team name. Now the name "Rays" refers to rays of sunlight and not marine animals. Their new logo looks like it's that of a Single-A team. How fitting...
• As of today, Free Agents can negotiate with any team.
• The AL Cy Young will be announced today. Josh Beckett, Chien-Ming Wang, and C.C. Sabathia are the front-runners. Beckett will almost certainly win.
• Jorge Posada is reportedly being signed by the Yankees to a 4 Year, $52 Million contract.

Mid-Game Thoughts on World Series Game 1

Beckett has been great, but the story is the Rockies just weren't ready for the Sox. The hot offense and defense for the Rockies cooled down in Denver over the break. If you want evidence, here it is: Josh Beckett struck out the side in the first inning using nothing but 95 MPH fastballs- the Rockies' bats were too cold to hit a fast version the simplest pitch in baseball. The Rockies' pitching has also cooled off- there's no other explanation for the awful 7-run two-out Sox rally that just happened in the 5th, including Ryan Speier walking home three straight runs.

The Rockies were too hot for their own good- they created a long layoff that cooled them off in the end. Anyway, I don't think any NL team could beat out the Sox in the series the way the Sox are playing. Their making the Rockies look like the Rockies made the Phillies look in the NLDS.

Keys to the World Series, and Game-by-Game Predictions

Keys to The Series:

Road Play: For the Red Sox, adjusting to Coors Field is important- if they get even only just one win in Colorado, they are left only needing to win 3 at Fenway, which won’t be too hard to do. If they win two in Colorado, or even three, they’d almost certainly win. For the Rockies, stealing one at Fenway in the first two games could put them in the driver’s seat- they will very likely get two or three wins at home, which would let them bring a lead back to Fenway in game 6, or they may not even have to play at Fenway again. If the Rockies can’t get the momentum of winning one at Fenway in games 1 or 2, a return to Fenway in games 6 or 7 could be disastrous for the Rockies.

Young Pitchers: All four of the Rockies starters, and John Lester for the Sox, are all young pitchers who aren’t all that familiar with the fall classic. The Rockies’ pitchers have done incredible this postseason even with that fact, but now they’re playing a powerhouse American League opponent. The Rockies need these guys to continue to pitch strongly if they want any chance at all of winning, and a Lester win in Colorado would be a huge blow to the Rockies, who need to make their home games count.

Josh Beckett: If Beckett isn’t the MVP of the World Series, then the Rockies will probably be the ones raising the World Series trophy. Beckett has been absolutely ridiculous this postseason. He’s 3-0 in the playoffs with a 1.17 ERA. He’s the definite AL Cy Young winner, the only pitcher to win 20 games in 2007. His two wins undoubtedly saved the Sox in the ALCS. If the Rockies can muster just one win against him that would turn the series in their favor.

Momentum: The Rockies have won 21 out of 22 games, and the Red Sox just won three straight elimination games. The difference is that the Red Sox have had a 3-day layoff, the Rockies a 9-day layoff. If the Rockies are still hot after the long days they spent in snowy Denver, they can gain the advantage in the series. If the Rockies have died down, the Red Sox will destroy them. This being said, along with the last key, Game 1 happens to be the most important game of the series, especially for the Rockies, who could go from 2:1 odds of victory to 1:2 odds with a win over Beckett.


World Series Matchup:

Game 1: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: 65% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-3 Red Sox
It may be game 1, but this game can really make or break the series for the Rockies. They can prove they are still hot, and put aside worries about the 9-day layoff. More importantly, if they somehow beat the unstoppable Josh Beckett, I’d say their chances of winning the series go to 20% if they lost, and 50% if they won. Beckett should let up a few runs to the powerful Rockies lineup, but not enough to worry Sox fans.


Game 2: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: 50% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-6 Red Sox
The way Jimenez and Schilling have been pitching lately, I’d actually give Jimenez the edge. If both these guys pitch the way they have been pitching recently, I’d call this game as a coin flip. Assuming I have to give the advantage away, I’d say the Red Sox get it, unless the Rockies really make a strong rebound from game 1. If the Rockies won game 1, I’d say the chances are the same. A loss here would really be discouraging and devastating to the Rockies.


Game 3: Fogg vs. Dice-K
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 12-6 Rockies
Dice-K gets the obvious edge here, as he’s begun to settle down. The big question here is if the Red Sox can really perform in Colorado. I think that for this reason they probably will struggle for this game, and I see them losing. The Sox will have a much harder time on the road than the Rockies.

Game 4: Aaron Cook vs. John Lester
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 8-2 Rockies
Neither of these guys was too impressive during the season. The question for me in this game is if the Sox can adjust to Coors field. I say that’s not probable, and thus I give the Rockies the edge. Surprisingly to me, the Rockies aren’t down 3-1 in my book at this point.

Game 5: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: Red Sox 60%
Predicted Score: 6-4 Red Sox
I’d say there is an equally good and bad chance that the Red Sox will have trouble adjusting by now. Coors Field could possibly just stop them right in their tracks, or not. Beckett may have trouble pitching at Coors, but he’s Josh Beckett, one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball, so I think the Sox can squeeze one win out of the Rockies at Coors.

Game 6: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: Red Sox 70%
Predicted Score: 11-4 Red Sox
A win at Coors should drive the Rockies into a corner they haven’t been anywhere close to in over a month, and the Red Sox should win in their first game back at Fenway.


Red Sox win Series, 3-2
Word Series MVP: Josh Beckett
Other Candidates to note as of now: Matt Holliday, Kaz Matsui, Brad Hawpe, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez


things could happen. Here are some scenarios

Rockies win Game 1: 60% chance Rockies win series, predicted series outcome 4-2 Rockies

Rockies win first two games: 80% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies

First two games are split: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Rockies win all home games: 65% Rockies, 4-2 Rockies

Series goes back to Boston 3-2 Rockies: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Series go back to Boston 3-2 Red Sox: 80% Red Sox, 4-2 Red Sox

Rockies win first 3: 95% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies (you never know with the Red Sox though...)

Game 7 situation: 85% Red Sox