The Search for a Number Two

Like Romeo and Juliet, so many of us spend so much of our lives searching for that one person who can make us whole. Often our searches aren't as fast as furious as the infamous star-crossed lovers, and can drag out a long time. Luckily it's pretty clear what the Phillies are looking for in their other half- a solid starting pitcher. A reversal of fates has occured in the pitching staff, with the bullpen going from worst to first, and the rotation going from good to below-average.

The greatest ailment for the rotation has been a case of serious mediocrity. Beyond Cole Hamels, who has been great as usual, things have been rocky. Jamie Moyer is pitching as well as you can really expect a 45-year-old to pitch. Kyle Kendrick is having some trouble nailing down his stuff after a successful rookie campaign. As for Adam Eaton, you'd find his picture in the dictionary under "mediocre"; I don't think there's a better example of the word anywhere on earth.

Brett Myers has been a disappointment, showing a lot of inconsistency. He'll go out one night and pitch an eight-inning, two-hit gem, and then give up three first-inning homers in his next start. It's believed that Myers has been struggling making the transition back to being a starter, after closing last year. It seems that after seeing how well he could close, and how fun it was, he's having trouble meeting expectations this season.

The logical solution to this problem would be to give some other arms a chance in the rotation, and see how they work out, but the challenge is that there aren't any good options available. Adam Eaton, at the back end of the rotation, is clearly the best choice. Chad Durbin is too valuable as a jack-of-all-trades reliever, and oft-injured Kris Benson is running into setback after setback along his comeback trail.

So, with four average guys already in the rotation, and no prospects or oft-injured arms waiting in the wings, clearly this new starter is going to have to come from outside the organization. The Phillies will probably be seeking out somebody to pitch in the second spot behind Cole Hamels during the playoffs, or maybe behind Brett Myers should he make a resurgence.

In my mind the best possibility is Erik Bedard. Now that the Mariners are in the AL cellar, and have fired their GM, they might shop him. The Flyers could deal some infield prospects in a possible trade, as Utley and Rollins won't be going anywhere soon. C.C. Sabathia might be a good option, but the Indians don't seem too likely to trade him, and even if they did, it'd be hard to compete with the Yankees, who have a better chance of re-signing Sabathia after this year. Freddy Garcia, if he wasn't so despised in Philadelphia, might fit. Expect trade talks to pick up as we approach the trade deadline- the Phillies might make a big move.

Phillies Sign Kris Benson

After watching him throw outside his Atlanta home, the Phillies inked oft-injured pitcher Kris Benson to a minor-league deal. Benson still has some rehabbing to do, and as a result will probably not be ready by opening day.

Interest in Odalis Perez

The Phillies have expressed interest in lefty starter Odalis Perez, watching him work out in the Dominican Republic. Perez will likely be competing with Kris Benson for a minor-league deal, but a decision would probably only occur after the Phillies watch Benson throw again sometime in the next week. Since a Kyle Lohse signing seems unlikely (although I feel otherwise) due to payroll concerns, and the Mets' interest, it is looking like the Phillies will move forward with their current roster, and maybe Perez or Benson.

Hot Stove Update

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:

• Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
• The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
• For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
• The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
• The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
• Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
• The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
• There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.

Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.



Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Still In the Running for Lohse

Despite the Phillies claiming they were out of the running for Kyle Lohse, they are actually in the running for him (gee, haven't we seen this sort of thing before?). Lohse backed off his demand for a four-year contract, and now wants three and a vesting option. In an online chat last week, Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies are still talking to Scott Boras about a possible deal (at least unlike Pat Gillick, Amaro doesn't have his head... well at least one of them is showing initiative.


Personally, I feel a four-year deal offer would definitely be too long considering it was based solely on Lohse's late-season success. Now that it's three years, I'd probably go for it. There is a weak market for free-agent pitchers now, and Lohse is arguably the best out of all of them. Signing Lohse would allow Chad Durbin to pitch out of the bullpen, and would leave the Phillies with five reliable starters (Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, and Lohse), and Adam Eaton when he's healthy again. The added starting pitching depth is crucial, and probably the best move the Phillies could make at this point. You can't contend for a title with a shaky rotation.

Don't count out other starters on the market, such as Kris Benson either. The Phillies are probably going to wait another month or so to see what happens with Benson. If he's still available, the Phillies may be able to make him a lower offer than they could now.

Winter Meeting Update 1

• Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis will be traded to the Tigers by the Marlins in exchange for 6 prospects, including Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.
• The Royals are making moves: They've already signed Jose Guillen, and now Andruw Jones and Hideki Kuroda could be on their way to KC as well.
• The Mariners recently offered Kuroda a 4-year, $45 Million dollar contract.
• The Red Sox are currently the front-runners in acquiring Johan Santana from the Twins. Jacoby Ellsbury would likely be included in a trade for Santana.
• According to MLBtraderumors.com, Ryan Howard and the Phillies will soon be sitting down to try to hammer out a long term deal. Howard is arbitration eligible.
• The Phillies are reportedly NOT interested in Jon Lieber.
• According to delawareonline, Pat Gillick said he'd be willing to trade one or two prospects for pitching. Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Josh Outman, and Adrian Cardenas are named as possibilities.
• Also according to delawareonline, Charlie Manuel has concerns about the health of Bartolo Colon, and thus Kris Benson is on the top of the Phillies list when it comes to pitchers recovering from arm injuries.
• delawareonline also says that the Mets are most interested in Livan Hernandez when it comes to pitchers. Hernandez is near the top of the Phillies list.
• The Phillies are currently trying to work out a deal with Tadahito Iguchi that would move him to Third Base, solving one of the Phillies' major gaps in the lineup. However, it would require Iguchi getting a waiver from the commissioner's office, as he was previously released by the Phillies.
• In an Interview with MLB.com, Pat Gillick discussed the Phillies' goals for the meetings. He said that the Phillies are: looking for a backup or "late-inning replacement" outfielder to replace Michael Bourn, keeping Aaron Rowand and Hideki Kuroda on the radar but are not close to siging him yet, and not in a rush to trade just for the sake of making trades.
• The Blue Jays reportedly do not want to trade A.J. Burnett. He was on the back-end of possible pitchers for the Phillies to add earlier in the off-season