Myers Makes a Bold Statement

Last Year, before the season began, Jimmy Rollins stated that he thought the Phillies were the "team to beat" in the NL East. Yesterday, Brett Myers made a bold statement of his own, one that I'd suggest keeping an eye on: Myers believes the Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball.

I wouldn't rule this one out; all five of the Phillies starters (Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton) have the potential to be solid starters, but the real question is whether they can avoid the problems they've faced. Hamels is quite prone to injury. Myers was a closer for most of last year, and was 0-3 as a starter anyway. Moyer is the oldest player in baseball. Kendrick is subject to the dreaded "Sophomore Curse". Eaton has been struggling with injuries, and hasn't been near 100% for quite a while now. I could see all of these guys with records of well above .500, but they have some problems, and potential problems, they need to deal with.

The Same Old Story

We all know the Phillies are the most consistently dissapointing team in sports history. Sure, you may have forgotten the fact that lost more than 10,000 games. Even worse, in ironic fashion, we've managed to be among a very select teams to put together a winning record each of the past five years. That's actually would be a good thing... except for the fact that we've only made the playoffs once, despite our lowest winning percentage over that span being .524 in 2006.

We were constantly tortured with playoff aspirations, to the point that virtually nobody truly believed in the Phillies in 2007 until Brett Myers struck out Willy Mo Pena to clinch the division title. Oh, and getting swept in the NLDS? Never happened. It was just a bad dream. The Phillies won the NL East, but in many fans' minds, the playoffs were irrelevant, because now, we have hope.


Despite our new faith in the Phillies, they are still mostly the same team as last year. If they weren't, you would surely see them at #1 in my power rankings. Instead, despite the fact that their lineup has three of the very best players in the National League, and the fact that managed to win a title last year with the same lineup doesn't seem to carry the weight it would for any other team.

In 2007 we managed to overcome the powerful Mets and get the 2nd seed in the National League despite almost every one of our players being injured at some point. Need a very brief refresher?

• Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
• Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
• Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
• Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
• Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
• Freddy Garcia: 6/8-End of Season
• John Lieber: 6/20-End of Season
• Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
• Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
• Ryan Madson: 7/29-End Of Season
  

Unfortunately, the skepticism surrounding Philadelphia's teams has always caused everyone from the casual fan to the senior reporter to come to expect something to go wrong. As injuries go, the Phillies, as they stand, would have massive problems if one of their key pitchers goes down. We were so comfortable with our pitching last year that we had a 6-man rotation at one point. Look at what we ended up with. If it weren't for Kyle Kendrick, who knows what would have happened to us.

Speaking of Kendrick, we also have to worry about the formidable "sophmore curse", which involves a skilled second-year player transitioning from "beginners luck" into taking on a regular role on a team. This curse isn't superstitious at all- it's a real problem that comes about more often that you may think.

Now, as if Kendrick isn't worrisome enough, look at the rest of our rotation. Cole Hamels has been on and off the DL for years, for reasons ranging from breaking his arm to getting in bar fights. Jamie Moyer is so old he could drop dead any second (although so does Brett Favre). Brett Myers was 0-3 as a starter last year. Adam Eaton still has to recover from an injury that hurt him a lot last year. Also, if Kyle Lohse comes back (an unlikely prospect), don't forget he had a losing record last year. And now, with the Mets' addition of Johan Santana, things could get even uglier for the Phillies.

The Bullpen in '08

The Phillies search for a free-agent starter ended with the signing of journeyman free-agent, former Tigers pitcher Chad Durbin. The signing of Durbin has made it clear that the Phillies intend for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, indefinitely vacated by Adam Eaton’s injury, with one of many unlikely candidates, including Durbin, from within the organization- at least until we are sure if Eaton will be our fifth man in the rotation down the stretch. With the lineup more than adequate, the one place the Phillies have yet to focus on this off-season is the bullpen.
As the Phillies displayed last season in their search for a starter to fill an ailing rotation, they are willing to throw prospect after prospect on the mound until they find the right guy. They eventually settled in with Kyle Kendrick, and what they got was a 10-4 Rookie of the Year candidate who saved the rotation from certain doom. During the first few weeks of the season, and later if an injury occurs to a starter, expect the Phillies to throw guy after guy out there again.

Meanwhile, also similarly to last season, these two-dozen-or-so mediocre pitchers, prospects and journeymen alike, will make up a large part of the Phillies bullpen. Expect the Phillies AAA Pitching staff, relievers, and the fifth spot in the rotation, to be one giant mixing pot.


We know that the Phillies core group of relievers is as follows:

• MRP J.C. Romero (Left-Handed Pitcher)
• SU Tom Gordon
• CP Brad Lidge
  

Here is the Phillies "Official" Bullpen Depth Chart (from their website):
B. Lidge (CL), T. Gordon, J. Romero, R. Madson, S. Mathieson, C. Condrey, M. Zagurski, F. Rosario, C. Durbin

Here is CBS Sportsline's Depth Chart for Starters:

C. Hamels, B. Myers, J. Moyer, A. Eaton, K. Kendrick, C. Carrasco, J Durbin, C. Durbin, S. Mathieson, T. Blackley, J. Outman, J. Savery

Here is CBS Sportsline's Bullpen Depth Chart:
B. Lidge, T. Gordon, R. Madson, J. Romero, F. A. Rosario, C. Condrey, F. Castro, J. Ennis, M. Zagurski, S. Youman, L. Holdzkom, Y. Hernandez, V. Darensbourg, K. Wilson, J. Anderson, M. Childers, J. Pope, R. Swindle, R. Chiavacci, G. Knotts, B. Mazone

Seem like a lot to take in? I'm going to assume the answer is yes, considering I haven't heard of nearly a third of those guys. It's interesting how the CBS Sportsline one puts Eaton before Kendrick, and Chad Durbin is seventh. It's a reminder of how weak our bullpen is when we see Brad Lidge, who was mediocre in 2007 at best, as our top guy in the pen. Undoubtedly we'll be relying a lot on starters like the Durbins.

While everything except the top four spots in the rotation, the set-up man, and closer is very unclear at this point, I've compiled my own bullpen depth chart. I'm not going to make one for starting pitching, since who can and may start beyond Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Kendrick is very unclear at this point. Here is my organization depth chart for the bullpen (although it doesn't go that deep into the organization), which for all intents and purposes counts everyone except those four, Eaton (who is unlikely to pitch out of the bullpen at all at least for the first couple months of the season) Lidge, and Gordon, as long-or-middle-relievers, not starters or closers.

1. J.C. Romero
2. Ryan Madson
3. J.D. Durbin
4. Clay Condrey
5. Chad Durbin
6. Shane Youman
7. Scott Mathieson
8. Fabio Castro
9. Francisco Rosario
10. Travis Blackley
11. Carlos Carrasco
12. Lincoln Holdzkom
13. John Ennis
14. Matt Zagurski
15. Josh Outman
16. Joe Savery
    

Granted this list may have a slight shortage of veterans or any sort of potential rookie-of-the-year candidates, but this list contains the guys the Phillies are hoping at least one of which will step up and follow in the footsteps of Kyle Kendrick. Now, it may take a heck of a lot of scouting, and maybe 3-10 games down the drain to find the right guy- that is, if we ever find the right guy.

A lot of the young guys in here may get a chance on the 40-man roster, especially down the stretch. Otherwise, expect maybe 6 or 7 of the above guys in the pen.

These guys definitely create one of the most makeshift bullpens we've seen for a long time. Maybe this roll of the dice will result in a bullpen better that last year, or maybe it will be even worse- something this fan doesn't even want to think about.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ROTATION??? / Pat Gillick Makes Brett Myers Cry at Night

In the last installment of the "What Happened to The Phillies" / "%#(@ You Pat Gillick" we examined the Phillies' new closer, Brad Lidge. Now, we will follow our former closer, Brett Myers, along his exile back to the rotation. Since the Phillies failed to sign any sort of reliable starter, Brett Myers is forced to become the #2 man in the rotation, which he is very unhappy with...



"I'm upset," Myers said Thursday, "not with the Phillies, because I understand the situation. I'm upset because I think I really found myself and my role this year as a closer. I know, because I've been told that I'm best suited to be a closer."

"I understand what's going on, and I understand that for this team, me going back to being a starter is the move to make," Myers said. "I definitely like closing more. I like having the ball in my hands four or five days [a week]. The only thing I don't like in starting is, I may go nuts those four days in between getting the ball."
...
Said Myers: "There are positives in this. I think I've proven myself as a closer and as a starter. If the time comes and I'm on the market as a free agent, instead of two teams needing a starter and two needing a closer, I can make myself available as both to 30 teams.
"This doesn't mean I'm unhappy in Philly. I love the team. I love the fans. But from a personal standpoint, this certainly can help me in the long run."

Source: The News Journal









Needless to say, Brett Myers looks like a very unhappy man :(


Moving Myers to the starting rotation was a Plan-C type move that Gillick, despite him and Charlie Manuel continuously denying any chance of Myers moving out of the closer role. Now, Myers cries himself to sleep at night over Pat Gillick, while Brad Lidge does the same over Albert Pujols. It's okay Brett, Gillick doesn't only lie to you. He told us that he was going to spend big bucks on pitching a day before he offered over $35 Million to Mike Lowell.

It also worries me that the only positive Myers now sees in this move is that it will be easier for him to get out of Philadelphia, given that as recently as a few months ago it looked like Myers could have a great, happy future with the Phils.

All this results in the following rotation:

1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Kyle Kendrick
4. Jamie Moyer
5. Peter Forsberg

As you can clearly see, I have absolutely no idea who will be filling the fifth spot in the rotation. Here are some candidates...

Adam Eaton: Eaton had a terrible 2007 due to a shoulder injury, and likely will not be 100% by opening day. When he's back to full strength, he will likely be back in the rotation.

Travis Blackley: The Rule 5 Draft pick is unlikely to have the stuff needed to start in 2008, and will likely be stuck in the back end of the bullpen or in the minors, but given the hole Pat Gillick has dug us into, I wouldn't be suprised to see him squeeze into the rotation.

Chad Durbin: His $900,000 contract is all he deserves. He is a journeyman pitcher who is unlikely to do much better than J.D. Durbin did last season, and a couple months ago there were hopes the Phillies would sign a bigger-name pitcher. At one point, it even looked like instead of Durbin we would sign Kyle Lohse and Curt Schilling. So much for that.

Beyond that, it is very unclear as to who will get that fifth spot. There are over a dozen candidates, prospect and journeyman alike, but nobody with stuff anywhere close to what Kyle Lohse brought.

I don't want to even imagine what happens if one of our solid starters goes down. We got lucky with Kyle Kendrick, but that's unlikely to happen again.

Phillies Sign So Taguchi

The Phillies signed outfielder So Taguchi to a one year deal valued around $1 million, with a team option for 2009.

The Phillies have done a lot of replacing of their players this off-season. Here's a simple rundown of the big replacements...

• Tadahito Iguchi > So Taguchi
• Geoff Geary & Brett Myers > Brad Lidge
• Mike Costanzo & Michael Bourn > Eric Bruntlett
• Kyle Lohse > Chad Durbin & Brett Myers
• Aaron Rowand > Geoff Jenkins

Worrisome? Yes, considering the fact that we presumably had more cap room to work with this season than last season, we should have a better roster, not a worse one. Hopefully this squad will manage to improve on last year's; this greatly depends on the contributions of Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, the bullpen, whoever the fifth starter is, and last but not least, avoiding any major injuries to starting pitchers- unless we have another surprise rookie sensation such as Kyle Kendrick come along again.

Why Gillick Must Be Finalizing a Deal for Johan Santana

Pat Gillick is the one of the most unpredictable general managers out there. After denying any interest in Mike Lowell, he nearly signs him to a huge contract close to $50 Million. Now, he hasn't signed any free agents since J.C. Romero, while the Phillies still have a very weak rotation, bullpen, and weak spots in the lineup at third base and in the outfield. Meanwhile, it seems that everyone who seemed to have interest in Johan Santana just dropped it. The Red Sox and Yankees opted out. No acquisitions for the Phillies, no apparent interest by any team anymore in Santana, and a very secretive, unpredictable general manager at the helm.

One can come to no other conclusion than that the Phillies should announce that they are trading Kyle Kendrick, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, and Prospects for Santana...


Okay, I am completely kidding here, but it is a wonder why Pat Gillick denied interest in a Third Baseman, yet almost went ahead and spent most of the team's remaining budget on Lowell. I personally hope that Gillick is keeping his motives secret, and that he is planning some big deals, because last I checked, our bullpen is even worse than last year at the moment, we have a severe lack in seasoned veterans that can lead the team, and our starting rotation is just waiting to be devastated with an injury.

Gillick said he did not want to "trade for the sake of trading", but c'mon Pat! Don't forget to do something before all the good deals have washed up.

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia


Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”


There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.


Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.


Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.




My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect