Projected 2008 Opening Day Roster (6th Edition)

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
SP Adam Eaton
LRP Chad Durbin
LRP Francisco Rosario
SU Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
CP Tom Gordon
-- Brad Lidge*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Greg Dobbs
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

*Injured, but not on Disabled List

Notes:

• It remains to be seem whether Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms will be on the Opening Day roster. Having both is a very unlikely proposition, and would likely only happen if either of them are traded, or if Eric Bruntlett was sent down to AAA. The Phillies are unlikely to opt to have more than five bench players (five are shown here). At the moment, it looks like a toss-up between the two.
• Brad Lidge will probably not be fully ready for opening day (although it's looking like he might rush himself out of excitement), meaning that Tom Gordon will move from set-up man to interim closer.
• I wouldn't say Fransico Rosario is anywhere close to a definite; there will be a lot of competition for a bullpen spot or two, and there are a lot of contenders
• Adam Eaton will probably be on a short leash. Expect Kris Benson (once he's healthy) and Chad Durbin to be next in line for that rotation spot. Shane Youman and Travis Blackley are also options.
• I like what I've seen from Joe Savery during Spring Training. A bit further down the road this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phillies give him a shot in the rotation, a la Kyle Kendrick.
• Kyle Lohse would be a huge boost, and his value has decreased from about 4 years $40 Million to 1 year $4 Million (another player screwed by agent Scott Boras). Still, the Phillies don't want to spend any more money. Lohse would be a huge boost to the rotation, and I fail to see why they won't take such an incredible bargain.

Power Rankings- Week of 2/25

It's been a while since the last rankings, coming later than usual in the week, as I've been very busy. Here are my official, pre-spring training power-rankings...

National League:

1 (1) Mets- Lost their first Spring Training game yesterday, while the Phillies won. Frivolous, maybe, but it's not a great start for the Mets, coming off their collapse.
2 (3) Dodgers
3 (4) Padres
4 (2) Phillies- It's no surprise that an overexcited, oft-injured closer Brad Lidge hurt his knee pitching during Spring Training a few days back. In his absence, which could extend past opening day, the Phillies will likely have to move Tom Gordon to closer. Lidge's injury also raises the question of whether he can remain healthy this season which is key as Lidge is the keystone of the Phillies pitching staff. He has blamed his lackluster 2006 and 2007 campaigns on lingering injuries (rather than the Albert Pujols home run in the 2005 NLCS), making one wonder if 2008 will be any different.
5 ) Rockies
6) Diamondbacks
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals
11) Astros
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Signing OF Luis Gonzalez gives them veteran leadership, but I doubt Gonzo will have much of a short-term effect.


American League

1) Red Sox- Signed SP Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, to a minor-league deal. Sounds like the ideal sleeper pick to me...
2) Yankees- Added 3B/IF Morgan Ensberg earlier in the month. He could make a run at their First Base position currently looking to be filled by Shelley Duncan or Jason Giambi
3) Angels- CP Francisco Rodriguez, aka K-Rod, wants out of Anaheim- ehem, Los Angeles- after this year, due to some sour contract talks and an arbitration hearing. He's making $10 Million this year.
4) Indians
5 (6) Mariners- Their addition of SP Erik Bedard pushes them past the Tigers. Look for the Mariners, along with the Tigers and Indians, to be pretty much the only teams that will give a real challenge to the Red Sox or Yankees (whoever is in second in the AL East) in the Wild Card race
6 (5) Tigers- Ticket sales have been extremely successful for the club, probably due to the excitement over their acquisition of 3B Miguel Cabrera and SP Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins.
7) Blue Jays- Apparently new Blue Jay 3B Scott Rolen would have been open to being traded to the Phillies. The reality here is that the fans hate him; and it seems to be an awful coincidence that his interest in returning rises during the off-season after we won the division crown.
8) White Sox- The White Sox are stuck in the AL cellar that has proven almost as inescapable as a black hole, but they're poking their head out. Things look to be on the rise for the Sox, who two years after winning a world series, finished 72-90 last year.
9) Twins- Johan Santana is gone, but the Twins still have are in what I like to call AL Purgatory. They still have some falling to do before they drop into the fiery abyss below them.
10) Athletics- Signed semi-retired closer Keith Foulke to a one-year deal. Foulke signed with the Indians last year, but retired before opening day. You may remember him as the pitcher who pitched the last out in the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
11) Rangers
12 (13) Rays- Barry Bonds could be on his way to Tampa Bay. Bonds would likely be a distraction during the season, but then again, what is there to distract them from?
13 (12) Orioles- Trading away SP Erik Bedard moves the Orioles even deeper into the AL cellar. With so many washed up has-beens on the team, however, I think the O's could make some splashes if they play their cards right
13 (14) Royals

Lidge Trade

Let me preface by saying I have never been a big fan of the concept of a closing pitcher. To get a genuine closer- one that has the lights-out pitches that they use to shut teams down in the ninth inning- such as Mariano Rivera, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, or Eric Gagne you generally need to spend a lot of money. Using another pitcher as a closer (i.e. Brett Myers), one who can't deliver those killer pitches, sort of defeats the purpose of the role.


That role, in my opinion, is very often not worth the $7-8 Million dollars a year Gagne and Percival got this off-season, or the $15 Million a year Rivera is getting. To me, one upgraded inning over maybe a third of your games isn't worth it. Closers are posterboys; a closer is the guy who the catcher picks up and bear hugs when a championship is one. Their blazing fastballs draw the awe of fans and make a team look strong when they win the game. However, it's just one inning (albeit in almost a third of your games), and there's a lot you could do for your rotation or your lineup with that kind of money.



Brad Lidge is ranked 13th in MLB.com's current fantasy rankings for closers, despite coming off a mediocre, injury-plagued 2007 season. Until giving up the game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, Lidge was one of the top closers in baseball. Since then, he hasn't been so great, but the Phillies are hoping that Lidge's new start in Philadelphia will help him move on. If he does so, he can regain his confidence and hopefully begin to dominate batters in the 9th inning just as well as he once did, back in 2004 and 2005.



Lidge is up for salary arbitration. In 2007 he earned $5.35 Million, part of a one-year deal, and I suspect his earnings will be around that after arbitration. Lidge is a risk, but he's going to be a free agent after this season, meaning if he fails to meet expectations we can be done with him after one year. If he has a stellar year, though, it's possible he won't re-sign with the Phillies, and go where the best contract offer is (similarly to Aaron Rowand).



Now, despite my skepticism over the importance of a closer, I think adding Lidge was a great move for Pat Gillick to make (although I wish more moves had followed). We gave up little to get Lidge. Michael Bourn's speed and contributions to outfield depth were easily replaced with So Taguchi and Chris Snelling. Geoff Geary did fill a long-relief mode that was huge to the Phillies in September, but it's unclear if he'll continue be that good in 2008.



The reason Lidge is so vital to the Phillies is the simple fact that our bullpen is absolutely terrible. We need a strong closer to shave off that ninth inning in key games, because our bullpen is thin on talent. As a result, that one inning- given our bullpen's ERA- will more often then not cost us a run. With Lidge hopefully giving us solid 9th inning outings when needed, and Tom Gordon working at set-up man in the 8th , we’re left with fewer innings where we’re stuck with our weaker relievers. Meanwhile, Brett Myers can fill a major hole in the rotation, where hopefully he’ll be effective despite having to re-adjust after a season in the bullpen.


Is this an improvement over last year’s pitching staff? Possibly. I’m not sure if I’d rather have Myers starting and Lidge closing than Kyle Lohse starting, Geary relieving, and Myers closing, but given the amount Lohse would cost us if we re-signed him, I don’t think pursuing him is really an option. Lohse also has a career losing record, and he also had a losing record in 2007, despite his good run with the Phillies. Signing another free-agent starter was also a possibility, but this move is a higher-risk, potentially more rewarding move.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BULLPEN??? / The Sad Story of Brad Lidge

In part one of our potentially infinitely-parted series "What Happened to the Phillies" (aka "!$%# You Pat Gillick") we'll examine the ways the Phillies have gone from being poised to build a championship team back in November, to actually making the team worse this off-season despite a reported cap increase of $10-$15 Million. And of course, we will start with the greatest weakness our team had in 2007- pitching.

If you're a Phillies fan, and you think back to what you were doing last summer, you'll probably remember screaming at the image of Adam Eaton on your television screen, as he looked over his shoulder at another long ball he just dished out. Oh, you don't? My mistake, it could have also been Jose Mesa, Antonia Alfonseca, J.D. Durbin, Freddy Garcia, or pretty much any of the Phillies' pitchers. Alas, despite our generally abysmal bullpen, there was one true gem in there- Brett Myers. Everyone, including the coaches, Pat Gillick, and Myers himself, was very pleased with his performance as closer.

Taking all that into account, Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel said repeatedly that Myers would remain the closer. Apparently they were just kidding, because Gillick went ahead and traded for a replacement for Myers, Brad Lidge. In the process, they gave up young outfielder Michael Bourn, prospect Mike Constanzo, and reliever Geoff Geary. Geary had a great September and was part of the core of strong relievers that led the Phillies down the stretch, so Lidge must have been worth more than him, right? I mean, we gave up a couple young guns, and a decent middle reliever so we could replace our newfound closer.

Brad Lidge came to pitch for the Astros in 2002 as a middle-reliever (and even started a game where he batted 2 for 2 with 2 RBI's). With Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel traded by mid-2004, he became their closer. When that season ended, Lidge, his up-to-102 mph meatball, and his 29 saves were voted 8th in the Cy Young voting, and he set a new NL record for strikeouts by a reliever with a whopping 157. In 2005, Lidge was an all-star (in the all-star game he struck out the side and nobody even made contact on his pitches) and 30th in MVP voting with 42 saves and a 2.29 ERA, undoubtedly playing a big role in helping the Astros edge out the Phillies by one game in the wild card race. In that postseason, he helped lead the Astros to the NLCS in 2005, where they faced the Cardinals. In Game 5 in Houston, Lidge faced Albert Pujols with the Astros up by two. There were two runners on, and Albert Pujols was batting as the go-ahead run- and Pujols jacked him up, hitting the ball pretty much the farthest it could possibly go in a roofed stadium.

The Astros survived and later won game 6, sending them to the World Series. In game 2, Lidge gave up a walk-off homer to the White Sox' Scott Podsednik. Needless to say, Albert Pujols' shot hit Lidge right in the heart, and since that incident, Lidge has been nothing more than a mediocre closer- or at least a lesser one than Brett Myers. Lidge even lost his role periodically in 2007, before tossing 10+ scoreless innings to regain the role, finishing the season 19 of 27 in save attempts.

Lidge is excited about his new role with the Phillies, and Phillies fans are hoping that Lidge can overcome his emotional trauma and reclaim his role as one of the top closers in baseball. If he does so, trading for him will have been a great move. If he doesn't, and Pat Gillick doesn't have a backup plan for Lidge, the Phillies will be in deep trouble, because the only other remotely-solid relievers they have left behind Lidge are Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero.

Otherwise, Pat Gillick is rolling the dice on a dozen or so prospects, as he was forced to do last season when the great injury plague hit the Phillies. Needless to say that this is extremely dicey, and very likely to fully compensate for the bullpen's shortfalls, especially if Lidge doesn't produce.

The bottom line right now is that the Phillies' bullpen's future is very unclear. Pat Gillick is just praying that some of the young pitchers step up. It's unlikely to work, and at this point, it looks like the bullpen has thrown out it's up-and-coming, delighted new closer Brett Myers, forcing him angrily into his old job as a #1 or #2 starter, and replaced him with a broken man rehabbing from getting owned by Albert Pujols.