Lidge and Madson Sign, Avoiding Arbitration

Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson both signed one-year deals with the Phillies yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Lidge will get $6.35 million, and Madson $1.4 million. These figures are about what both of these guys would have gotten through arbitration, but it's always healthy to avoid the arbitration process.

The only players left on the arbitration list are Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies' current payroll is about $85 million, and after these two arbitration hearings my guess is that the payroll will jump to about $100 million- about $5 million more than last season- if not more. That would likely mean that the Phillies have room for one more big free-agent signing. At this point, it looks like the top candidates 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Kris Benson, and SP Kyle Lohse. Expect the Phillies to wait until right before spring training before making an offer, in an effort to be able to give a lower offer than they would now. Lohse would be the best candidate, especially if the Mets sign Johan Santana, but Scott Boras can be tough to deal with.

NOTE: Sorry, my math was terribly mistaken. The payroll shouldn't go any higher tht $95 million, last years mark, so possibly two notable signings will be made

Jimmy Rollins Wins MVP!!!

Totally deserving here. Rollins this year, as Howard did in 2006, proves that the Phillies have a strong core of truly valuable players that could lead them to a championship in 2008. Holliday almost had the triple crown (Prince Fielder being the spoiler in the Home Run category), but Rollins was more... well... valuable. Extra base hits, the stolen bases, hits, home runs- Rollins had the works. Notice how the Phillies also had three guys in the top 10, the only team to have multiple guys there.

The voting:
Jimmy Rollins- 353 Votes (16 1st Place Votes)
Matt Holliday- 336 (11)
Prince Fielder- 284 (5)
David Wright- 182
Ryan Howard- 112
Chipper Jones- 107
Jake Peavy-97
Chase Utley-89
Albert Pujols- 50
Hanley Ramirez- 49
...
Aaron Rowand- 3

Season Awards

NL co-MVPs: Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday
Reasoning: Holliday’s offensive stats are simply more impressive, but J-Roll’s amazing defensive play and speed make him more well-rounded than Holliday. Both teams are already offensive powerhouses, so both players offense matters less than their play in other departments. Rollins has clearly had a bigger effect on the Phillies’ success than Holliday on the Rockies’ success, although Holliday’s team is the one who won the pennant. Personally, I’d give them co-MVP, even though that is difficult to do in reality. If I had to rank my top 3, it would be Holliday in 1st, Rollins in 2nd, and out of a lot of candidates for 3rd, David Wright (even with the Mets demise; Howard and Utley both have impressive numbers for players who were injured for a while; Prince Fielder is probably the fourth best).

NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun
Ryan Braun barely beats out Troy Tulowitzki. Not much to say here.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Peavy is the clear-cut winner, after posting incredible stats. 2nd is Brandon Webb, and a close race for 3rd is won by Cole Hamels, despite missing part of the season. Any lefty with a 3.50 ERA at Citizen’s Bank Park is an incredible pitcher, and I don’t know what the Phillies would do without him.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod, who will end up hitting 800 homers in his career, destroys an otherwise close pack.

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
Even more of a clear-cut winner than A-Rod. What he’s done for the Red Sox is above and beyond what would be expected of a Rookie.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Yet another clear-cut winner. Many pitchers have pitched well this season, but if you saw Beckett’s stuff in his playoff appearances, you know this is the best pitcher in baseball right now.


Phillies Awards

MVP: Jimmy Rollins
He wins for the same reasons mentioned before. Utley and Howard share a close 2nd/3rd, putting up impressive stats given the amount of time they missed. Aaron Rowand is definitely close to these top three, an all-around great player, team leader, and fan-favorite. Cole Hamels would be my final candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Kyle Kendrick
This guy was in AA last year? If only Garcia and Lieber had been injured sooner- he’d probably be the NL rookie of the year in that case.

Comeback Player of the Year: Pat Burrell
Burrell’s mid-season offensive turnaround was unbelievable. He could probably have been the NL MVP if he had made this turnaround sooner.

The “Jim Thome” Overrated co-Players of the Year Award: Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber
Goes to the almost distant memories. Wasted money; these players may win 15 games for another team next year, but their lackluster play while they were playing hurt the Phillies greatly in the beginning of the season.

The “Ryan Howard”* Underrated Player of the Year Award: Geoff Geary
Geary may have had a rocky start to the season, but down the stretch he was absolutely incredible, with an ERA below 2.75, and yet we hear so little praise for this guy.
*Called up in 2004 as a pinch-hitter, wins Rookie of the Year the following year, MVP the next

Co-10th Man/Pinch Hitters of the Year: Tadihito Iguchi and Greg Dobbs
Both these backups have numbers that could easily land them a starting job on most other teams, and have come through with many big clutch hits this season. Iguchi took Utley’s place well, as he batted .304, and Dobbs had 10 HR and 55 RBI in only 324 at-bats. If he had started the whole season, he’d have close to 20 HR and 100 RBI.

The “Anyone but Freddy Garcia” Player to Watch Next Year Award: Cole Hamels
Expect Hamels to only get better, along with the Phillies in general next year. Hamels should win at least 15 games, if not 20, and the Phillies as a whole should do even better than this year.

A Look into the Future?

On September 29, the Phillies lost a national broadcast game to the Washington Nationals 4-2, with a bad outing by Adam Eaton and a game of blown opportunities. They fell back into a tie with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Dissapointment was in the air. I've decided to take a ride in the old time machine, one year ahead of then, 366 days later, to the same date in 2008. While I was there, I was able to pick up this snippet from the Paper...

Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, 9/29/08

If you went around talking to any of the 44,000+ fans at Citizens Bank Park yesterday, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone with a downbeat attitude. That is, unless they were a Rockies fan.

It was a day of milestone-shattering, cheering, and redemption. The Fightin’s 12-3 victory marks their 5th straight win against the defending World Series champion Rockies, putting the Rockies a game-and-a-half back in the Wild Card race behind the 87-74 Braves. The Braves play a doubleheader today to end the season.

“This is our payback for last year,” said Jimmy Rollins, “They really beat us up last year in the playoffs, and now we’re getting our turn.” Rollins was 3-6 with 2 runs batted in.

The win moves the Phillies up to 93-68, and they will have the best record in the National League in two years, and the second-best record in baseball. Curt Schilling got his 14th win, going 7 strong innings, striking out 5. But, yesterday was a day for the records…

A year ago you wouldn’t find Mariano Rivera and the Phillies in the same sentence. Yesterday, Rivera got his 46th save, breaking Jose Mesa’s team record of 45 set back in 2002.
“This is unbelievable… this city is incredible. I’ve had a lot of great years, but my time here has soared above and beyond my expectations.”

However, the fans were already cheering like crazy for the big man, Ryan Howard. In the Bottom of the 8th Inning, with Mike Cameron on second and Mike Lowell on third, 2 outs, and the count 2-2, Howard hit an opposite field shot off LaTroy Hawkins. Chaos erupted- it was Howard’s 61st homer of the season, passing Babe Ruth and tying Roger Maris for the 7th most home runs in a single season in MLB history, also breaking his club record of 58.

“You grow up hearing all about the Babe, said Howard, “He’s probably the biggest slugger in history. To hit more home runs than he did, well, I can’t describe the feeling.”
If the Phillies win tomorrow, they face the Padres in the first round. If the Rockies win and the Braves lose both games of the doubleheader, the Phillies could face the Rockies instead.
Rollins smiled at the possibility, “Another series with them? Wow, this just gets better and better.”

Will There be Fightin' for a Championship in '08?

The Phillies offered a rather disappointing end to their 2007 season, being swiftly swept by the Rockies in the NLDS. They were a young team that wasn’t really prepared to play in the postseason, plagued by their generally inconsistent play and lackluster pitching staff. They rode an impressive streak into the postseason, but still have many problematic shortcomings that need to be fixed.

The common philosophy when your season ends is “There’s always next year.” A lot of teams in professional sports, however, especially after making a long run towards a championship, are often plagued by one main problem in the off-season: keeping their strong team together. They have trouble re-signing their key players, as their value has gone up. Also, the egos of players on the team can over inflate (T.O. cough cough), hurting team chemistry. In football, the dreaded “Super Bowl Curse” plagues the teams who were in the super bowl (more commonly the losers, who almost always fall victim to the curse), as next season they play terribly for these reasons. This goes for all team sports, including baseball.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the Fightin’s won’t fall apart; in fact, next year they will be better than ever.

The Phillies have already committed more than $64 million dollars for the contracts of the following players in 2008:

Pat Burrell ($14 million)
Brett Myers ($8.5 million)
Jimmy Rollins ($8 million)
Adam Eaton ($7.635 million)
Chase Utley ($7.5 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Tom Gordon ($5.5 million)
Wes Helms ($2.15 million)
Jim Thome ($5.5 million- Thome is currently playing for the White Sox


To put it in perspective, their team salary has generally been about $95 million for the past few years. Burrell, Rollins, and Utley are without a doubt going to be starting next year. Moyer will likely be in the starting rotation, while they may try to trade Eaton, who struggled this season.
Eligible for arbitration next year are Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth, Geoff Geary, Julio Mateo, and Kane Davis. Howard made $900,000 last year as part of a one-year deal signed on March 3rd. Essentially the way arbitration works is the player will come up with a salary for next year, and the Phillies will come up with one. A neutral arbitrator chooses the most reasonable between the two, using the player’s stats. The teams can also sign the contract just by negotiating if they come to an agreement. A player of Howard’s caliber would surely get more than $5 million dollars (Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million last year), because the Phillies would be insane to go any lower, which would practically be just taking Howard . My guess is that he gets $6.5 million (per year, as are all the values unless otherwise mentioned). I’d offer a guess the other players end up being about $7.5 million combined. So, that brings my estimate to $78.5 million.

Next up are Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Coste, who should all be signed for a small amount, totaling maybe $3 Million. Also, the Phillies spent $800,000 buying out the contracts of Abraham Nunez and Rod Barajas on Thursday. That brings the estimate to $82.5 million.

Now for the possible Free Agents. Let’s assume the Phillies have about $15 million to spend.
We’ll start in the field, and first comes the big question mark of Aaron Rowand. He has been a team leader and fan favorite, but recent trade talks suggest he won’t be back. Rowand asked today for $84 million over 6 years, while the Phillies want a shorter, less-per-year contract. Maybe they are learning I suppose from the Jim Thome fiasco, which is still costing them- $5.5 million this year. It seems unlikely that the Phillies will go after Rowand.
That would theoretically leave the Phillies with these main starters:

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs
OF Jayson Werth
OF Shane Victorino
OF Pat Burrell


Now, that’s not a bad lineup at all, but the Phillies might look into a Free Agent 3rd Baseman or Outfielder. Doing this would be good, especially getting an outfielder, because an injury could put a big hole in the lineup. The only realistic long-term backup in the outfield would be Michael Bourn or Greg Dobbs. It’s too soon to guess what the Phillies will do, given the Aaron Rowand situation, but I would sign another outfielder if Rowand went, one in the $3-6 million dollar range. There are many possible candidates. Maybe Barry Bonds… just kidding.
Iguchi probably won’t be re-signed, as they have Utley.

Next comes starting pitching. Expect Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, whose contracts totaled $17.5 million this year, to not be resigned. MLB.com reports that the Phillies may end up bring up righty Kyle Drabeck, their 2006 first-round pick, who is currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He went 5-1 for the Lakewood Blue Claws, and may be ready before the all-star break. If there’s a weak link in the rotation, he will probably find his way in there.

That leaves the Phillies with Eaton, Kendrick, Hamels, Durbin, and Moyer in terms of starters. These four were all on the rotation at the end of the regular season. The other was Kyle Lohse, who is eligible for free agency. After Lohse’s strong run for the Phillies this year, he might ask for a lot. A lot of teams would be interested in him, but I see the Phillies going after him, adding I’m going to guess $6.5 million to the payroll. If Lohse wasn’t re-signed, the Phillies would probably sign another of the skilled reliever Free Agents.

It should be noted that Curt Schilling has been reported by Randy Miller of the Courier Times (who has a source inside the team) as being looked into by the Phillies. It is likely that he will end up leaving Boston, and he recently decided to settle down in southern New Jersey, making the Phillies a likely first-choice for him. They may end up signing him, but probably only if the front office raises the payroll, or Lohse isn’t re-signed.

Finally, the bullpen, the part of the team that needs the most improvement. Pat Gillick said that Brett Myers should remain as the closer, unless the Phillies end up somehow not resigning Lohse, and not getting another starter, in which case Myers would probably move into the starting rotation.

However, the Phillies have been reported by Miller as looking into another player in addition to Schilling- Mariano Rivera, who may become a free agent if the Yankees don’t exercise his $21 million dollar option. He would probably cost about $13 million, but his signing would mean Myers would return to the starting rotation, saving the Phillies money they may have had to spend on Lohse, Schilling, or another starting pitcher. Of course, their are no guarantees on how effective Myers will be as a starter after closing most of last year.

I could see J.D. Durbin possibly turning into a middle reliever if Eaton takes the fifth spot on the rotation, or if Schilling or Rivera are signed. The Free Agents are Mesa, Alfonseca, and Romero (Julio Santana was released). The Phillies want Romero back, and Romero wants to come back, so he will probably be re-signed for a few (I’ll guess 3) million. Mesa and Alfonseca should be released.

The Phillies could really round out a powerful roster with more relief pitching. There are too many candidates to name right now, but I have confidence Pat Gillick will come through here, whether or not he signs Rivera or Schilling.

Especially if Rowand goes, the Phillies could really use another seasoned veteran. As Gillick goes searching this off-season, he should, and likely will keep this in mind.
If things go well this off-season, our pitching problem should be completely solved, and the offense should be just as strong as last year.

One of the keys here is if the front office is willing to raise the payroll. With a higher payroll, the Phillies will surely be able to strengthen the bullpen. It’s likely that they will do so, as a strong team will attract a lot of fans to Citizens Bank Park- just look at the last couple weeks of the 2007 season. Who knows, maybe the front office will be generous enough that we can keep Rowand, sign Curt Schilling, Rivera, and another reliever. The front offices’ decision will have a huge effect on championship aspirations for next year.

If Pat Gillick continues the good work, making the right moves, and the front office sees the championship opportunity, the Phillies should be not only just as good next year, but likely much better. I can see it now: Citizens Bank Park twice as full as last year, a powerful pitching rotation without Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin, Mariano Rivera closing, and the Phillies becoming the best team in the National League. Should the front office see this opportunity, this is a whole lot more than wishful thinking.