Garciaparra Down, Helms in for Dodgers?

As discussed earlier this month, there have been rumors of the Dodgers having interest in Wes Helms, who would play backup to Nomar Garciaparra at Third Base. Now, Garciaparra has broken his finger, making the chances of dealing Helms a bit more likely.

Helms to Dodgers?

With Third Baseman Andy LaRoche expected to be out for at least a couple months, the Dodgers have decided that Nomar Garciaparra will be manning the hot corner opening day. However, Garciaparra isn't expected to play in every game, so the Dodgers are looking for a backup to fill in once or twice a week. Joe Torre has said he prefers to look within the organization for that backup, but it's possible that they could make an offer for the Phillies' Wes Helms. Helms is now all but out of a job, due to the signing of Pedro Feliz.

If a deal happened, it would probably involve Helms going to the Dodgers for a draft pick (or draft picks), and maybe a pitcher if the Phillies are lucky. Acquiring Helms probably wouldn't be worth giving any sort of notable prospect for the Dodgers, and the Phillies don't need any more no-better-than-mediocre pitchers- they have plenty of those.

The Marlins and Braves have also shown interest in Helms. The Phillies seem to be aware of this, as they've been giving Helms a lot of playing time in Spring Training, despite the fact that he's a contender for the bench at best.

What might draw the Phillies into making a deal is getting Helms off the payroll. Helms is scheduled to make $2.15 Million this year. If the Phillies could get him off their payroll, they may have money to sign another free-agent- *cough cough* Kyle Lohse *cough cough* Armando Benitez. Then again, considering the Phillies' spending patterns, they could just pocket the money rather than use it towards winning a championship.

Hot Stove Update

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:

• Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
• The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
• For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
• The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
• The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
• Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
• The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
• There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.

Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.



Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
• Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
• I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Phillies Off-Season Preview: Position Players

It's safe to say that the Phillies lineup is going to be fine without any additions or re-signings this off-season. Barring any trades or any other unforeseen events, here is what the Phillies lineup would look like in 2008 if the Phillies did not sign or re-sign anybody this off-season (not shown in batting order)


1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms
C- Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Jayson Werth
RF- Shane Victorino

Bench:

Greg Dobbs (3B/1B/LF/RF) or Wes Helms (3B/1B)
Chris Roberson (LF/RF)
Pete LaForest (C/1B)
Chris Coste (C) or Carlos Ruiz (C)
Eric Bruntlett (2B/SS)

This lineup would certainly suffice. With Aaron Rowand gone there won't be as much depth and in this lineup and it's certainly less potent than last season , but given the improvements that should be made to pitching staff I'm not too worried. More importantly, Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse, and the loss of his influence might be a big problem for this young lineup. I also worry that as always with the Phillies, this lineup will be inconsistent and not able to perform game-after-game at the level needed to really be considered a championship contender.

Third Base has been considered a weak spot, as the offensive production from third base was nothing short of abysmal last season. However, Pat Gillick was quoted in the Daily News as saying he doesn't think anything but pitching will be addressed in the off-season...

"I don't know that [third base] is going to be addressed," Pat Gillick said as the annual general manager meetings got under way yesterday at the posh Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "We'll go with [Wes] Helms and [Greg] Dobbs. Because we're going to concentrate on pitching. If we go in any direction, we're going to concentrate on pitching... If we make a deal, it will be for pitching," the general manager said. "If we spend money, we'll spend it on pitching... If you improve your pitching, you don't have to have as much offense... You don't have to score as many runs if you don't let as many in."

This pretty much rules out the possible acquisition of any off-season improvements to the lineup. I agree fully with Gillick; this offense should be fine, despite the loss of Rowand. However, I wonder if the Phillies would have enough playoff experience as a team last year to be able to perform under playoff pressure in 2008, now having lost 2005 World Series Champions Tadihito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Freddy Garcia. Many of the seasoned veterans who were on the 2007 Phillies are now free-agents. This worries me a bit, but hopefully this issue can be adressed when Pat Gillick goes shopping for pitchers this off-season.