Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.



Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Jayson Werth Re-Signed

Outfielder Jayson Werth, who as a backup and platoon right-fielder hit .298 this season, was signed to a 1-year, $1.7 Million dollar contract, avoiding arbitration. This figure seems about what he'd get from arbitration, maybe a bit less considering Werth's often-underlooked batting average from last season. Werth will probably be a part of a platoon in right-field with Geoff Jenkins, although Jenkins will probably recieve more playing time.

Phillies Introduce Chad Durbin... and Geoff Jenkins

The Phillies made Chad Durbin official today, and Geoff Jenkins was announced as a free-agent signing as well. Two years, $13 Million for Jenkins- a bit more than I would have allocated for a guy who's not even going to be an everyday outfielder. Instead of that, he will probably share his time with Jayson Werth. Durbin's deal is one year, $900,000

Mike Mussina

According to Bob Matthews of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, the Phillies have mild interest in the Yankees' Mike Mussina. Currently, the Yankees depth chart of starting pictching is looking as follows:

1. Chien Ming Wang
2. Andy Pettite
3. Phillip Hughes
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Mike Mussina
6. Ian Kennedy

There are a lot of things in play here. The Yanks could possibly go to a six-man rotation, in order to give their youngsters work as well as their experienced pitchers. Johan Santana ending up in New York is still slightly possible, but unlikely. It's also possible that Joba Chamberlain could remain in the bullpen (which is probably the weakest spot on the Yankees team), but at this point it seems more likely that he'll start. If the Phillies can put together a good deal for Mussina, an area native, the Yankees may be willing to deal.

And for your reading pleasure, I've offered some possible ideas for trades that could bring Mussina here (I didn't really explore possible minor league players up for trade, as that sort of a deal would be very hard to predict):

• Shane Victorino for Mike Mussina and Shelley Duncan
• Adam Eaton for Melky Cabrera and Mike Mussina
• Adam Eaton and Jayson Werth for Mike Mussina and Bobby Abreu
• Prospects for Mussina
• Adam Eaton for Mike Mussina and Kyle Farnsworth
• Pat Burrell for Johnny Damon and Mike Mussina
• Pat Burrell and Prospects for Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina

Here are the team needs:

The Phillies could use Mussina in the back of the rotation if Eaton is out or if someone else goes down, and could also use another right-fielder, center-fielder, or third baseman. The Yankees could offer Melky Cabrera in a deal, or even gool ol' Bobby Abreu if the Phillies include fielders such as Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino, or the rehabbing Adam Eaton.

The Yankees, as if they needed anything, probably wouldn't mind trading one of their older players (similar to Mussina) for young or rehabbing fielders or relievers, as they have enough depth to gamble on those guys. If the Yankees lose an outfielder, Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth may look attractive to them. Any of the many young pitchers the Phillies have could be added on to a trade. Beyond this, I'd never rule out Pat Burrell, despite his no-trade clause, due to the fact that the Yankees have the money to pay him, and it's unlikely Burrell would be completely against being traded to the Yankees.

Both teams could use help in the bullpen, so pitching prospects may play a key role in possible trade talks. Hopefully something with pan out.

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.


4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.


The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...