The Search for a Number Two

Like Romeo and Juliet, so many of us spend so much of our lives searching for that one person who can make us whole. Often our searches aren't as fast as furious as the infamous star-crossed lovers, and can drag out a long time. Luckily it's pretty clear what the Phillies are looking for in their other half- a solid starting pitcher. A reversal of fates has occured in the pitching staff, with the bullpen going from worst to first, and the rotation going from good to below-average.

The greatest ailment for the rotation has been a case of serious mediocrity. Beyond Cole Hamels, who has been great as usual, things have been rocky. Jamie Moyer is pitching as well as you can really expect a 45-year-old to pitch. Kyle Kendrick is having some trouble nailing down his stuff after a successful rookie campaign. As for Adam Eaton, you'd find his picture in the dictionary under "mediocre"; I don't think there's a better example of the word anywhere on earth.

Brett Myers has been a disappointment, showing a lot of inconsistency. He'll go out one night and pitch an eight-inning, two-hit gem, and then give up three first-inning homers in his next start. It's believed that Myers has been struggling making the transition back to being a starter, after closing last year. It seems that after seeing how well he could close, and how fun it was, he's having trouble meeting expectations this season.

The logical solution to this problem would be to give some other arms a chance in the rotation, and see how they work out, but the challenge is that there aren't any good options available. Adam Eaton, at the back end of the rotation, is clearly the best choice. Chad Durbin is too valuable as a jack-of-all-trades reliever, and oft-injured Kris Benson is running into setback after setback along his comeback trail.

So, with four average guys already in the rotation, and no prospects or oft-injured arms waiting in the wings, clearly this new starter is going to have to come from outside the organization. The Phillies will probably be seeking out somebody to pitch in the second spot behind Cole Hamels during the playoffs, or maybe behind Brett Myers should he make a resurgence.

In my mind the best possibility is Erik Bedard. Now that the Mariners are in the AL cellar, and have fired their GM, they might shop him. The Flyers could deal some infield prospects in a possible trade, as Utley and Rollins won't be going anywhere soon. C.C. Sabathia might be a good option, but the Indians don't seem too likely to trade him, and even if they did, it'd be hard to compete with the Yankees, who have a better chance of re-signing Sabathia after this year. Freddy Garcia, if he wasn't so despised in Philadelphia, might fit. Expect trade talks to pick up as we approach the trade deadline- the Phillies might make a big move.

Why Myers & Durbin Should Pull the Old Switcheroo

Chad Durbin has done a great job in long-relief this year. As a starter, Brett Myers has been, well, less than stellar. Myers is giving up a lot of home runs, after a good season in the bullpen.

The solution to all of this? Switch'em. Myers is 238 pounds. He has to put his whole weight into his arm when he pitches. This tires it out quickly. For this reason, many big men, such as Bob Wickman, made their name out in the bullpen. Myers was showing signs of greatness as a blossoming closer last year, but necessity made a move back to the rotation a common-sense one. The acquisition of Brad Lidge made it even more necessary. However, now we're discovering that Myers is having trouble developing consistency as an ace.

That being said, I think the Phillies should take some time to try out some other guys in his rotation spot. It's going to mess up Myers' rhythm, but then again, what rhythm is there to mess up? The way he's pitching, I would not want to see him on the hill in October. He'll be a solid reliever, like last year, and he'll be very happy with it. He may even be good trade bait come mid-season. I hate saying this but Myers is built as a closer, and the Phillies aren't the kind of team that can afford to experiment with his versatility. Durbin has been solid, so they should try him out in that spot.

Player Rankings

This season has been full of ups and downs galore in terms of the way the Phillies players have performed. So, with many players slumping, it's time to give out our first Phillies' player rankings.

1) Chase Utley- As the Phillies' superstars go, Utley has been the only one thus far to live up to the expectations. He's been great at the plate, and his 14 homers is tied for best in the majors. If Utley can stay healthy and continue to play consistently, he'll no doubt be one of the top contenders for the league MVP award.
2) Brad Lidge- Lidge's 2008 success isn't a big shock to anybody, but the way he's regained his dominance is not what most people expected. Coming off his injury, he realized he'd have to focus more on control and movement than pitch speed, and now he's developed a devastating slider to go with his still-sharp heater. I have to admit, even though he's my favorite player on the team, I chuckled when I first saw "Lights-Out Lidge" on the scoreboard at Citizen's Bank Park. However, he's more than lived up to the nickname.
3) Pat Burrell- Unlike previous years Burrell's actually living up to his high salary ($14 million), providing the power the middle of the lineup desperately needs with Ryan Howard slumping. The question is whether or not Burrell can overcome his struggles with mid-season slumps.
4) Cole Hamels- Cole hasn't pitched as well as many would have expected, but it's too early to worry about him slightly cooling off. If his ERA is still over 3 by August, then it's worth discussing, but for now, he's doing his job well.
5) Jimmy Rollins- Rollins probably won't match his 2007 MVP performance this season, but he's still the best leadoff man in baseball, hands down. He's looking like his injury won't have much of a lingering effect on his speed.
6) Chad Durbin- Durbin's 24.0 innings pitched and 1.50 ERA have offered the Phillies the long-relief they've been searching for. With the starting pitchers struggling, expect Durbin to continue to play a large role, whether it's long-relief or possibly starting. A rare kudos to Pat Gillick for snatching Durbin up for less than a million dollars.
7) J.C. Romero- If you're going to be the only reliable lefty in the bullpen, you'd better pitch well. Romero's continued his good work from 2007, probably leaving Theo Epstein with some slight regret over cutting him last year.
8) Rudy Seanez- The righty has as ERA of 1.59, but only has 14 appearances. It's incredible when you consider four out of our top eight players are relievers. Wait a minute... WE HAVE THE LOWEST BULLPEN ERA IN BASEBALL?!?! THE PHILLIES?!?!? Wow, who would've thought...
9) Greg Dobbs- Dobbs .327 average is incredible when you consider he's not even a regular starter, or even part of a platoon. The Phillies would never replace Howard or Feliz with him though, although Dobbs could play in the outfield. The interesting thing here is that as mostly baseless Ryan Howard trade rumors circulate, you have to wonder if they might gain validity as Dobbs keeps getting better and better.
10) Chris Coste- I don't care if he's the backup catcher on a team filled with superstars. I personally watched Coste start rally after rally in Wednesday's 8-6 loss to the Braves, in which he went 4-4. He's batting .339, and that's no fluke.
11) Jayson Werth- Werth has managed to overshadow his platoon partner Geoff Jenkins, even against right-handed hitters. He continues to defy expectations.
12) Tom Gordon- Gordon hasn't given up a run in over a month, amounting to 11.2 scoreless innings in which he has only allowed 6 hits and 4 walks. This is impressive given Gordon's dim outlook after his early struggles, but kudos to him for picking up his game.
13) Geoff Jenkins- His mediocre start doesn't seem to be worth $6.5 million a year, but it's still early. He'll get less and less playing time as Werth gets better and better.
14) Kyle Kendrick- Kendrick is definitely showing signs supporting the universal sophomore curse, but he's been getting better as the season has progressed, suggesting that he's doing a good job of overcoming his early-season struggles.
15) Ryan Howard- Many people are confident that Howard will eventually pull out of his current slump. I think that he's going to have to work on some glaring weaknesses he has in the box, because his home runs don't make up for his very high strikeout count (58) and terrible .185 average. However, he shouldn't be traded.
16) Pedro Feliz- Feliz's defense has been fine, but his offense leaves much to be desired. His .241 average and dreadful .288 OBP are disappointing, and raise questions as to whether or not he should be the everyday starter. Expect Greg Dobbs to start getting increasing numbers of starts unless Feliz picks up his game.
17) Jamie Moyer- The oldest man in the sport is showing signs of running out of gas. It's yet to be seen whether he's still going to have to spark that could, come September, make his pitch like he did down the stretch last year.
18) Eric Bruntlett- Kudos to Bruntlett for doing a better job replacing Rollins that many would expect. Having a better average than Feliz, Howard, and Victorino has to count for something.
19) Carlos Ruiz- Ruiz's game hasn't changed much from last year, but with Chris Coste improving, Ruiz might lose his starting job.
20) Adam Eaton- He's looking better than last year, but it's yet to be seen whether his seemingly eternal "nagging injuries" are more than just an overused excuse.
21) Ryan Madson- Expected to be the shut-down guy in the seventh, he now has a 4.66 ERA. Last year this would have been great, but with the turnaround the bullpen has had, it just doesn't cut it. I have a gut feeling that Madson might not be here come playoff time, due to the amount of talent in the Phillies' bullpen, and the fact that Madson's services as a long-reliever (and maybe starter) might be in increased demand later in the season.
22) Brett Myers- Myers is stuck in an unfortunate position, built like a closer but experienced as a starter. Now that Myers has seen that the grass is really greener in the bullpen, he's having time adjusting back to being a starter. If he doesn't turn his game (and massive home run count) around, then expect him to be a reliever by next season- whether it's in our bullpen, or in another team's bullpen. 240 pound brutes aren't meant to be starters.
23) Shane Victorino- Victorino seems to just be in a slump, but it's important to remember that Victorino spent much of last season recovering from an injury, and only had about one-and-a-half really good seasons. He'll probably pull out, but it's not an inevitability by any stretch of the imagination.
24) So Taguchi- Taguchi's numbers have been downright awful, and unlike Howard or Victorino, he's unlikely to get much better. His defense hasn't exactly secured him even the lowliest title of "late inning defensive replacement" either.
25) Clay Condrey- Condrey's been doing okay, but he'll be the first to go if any pitching prospects are called up. He deserves praise, however, for fighting hard to win out that final roster spot over a plethora of other relievers, who now play for the downright awful IronPigs.

Outlook Thus Far

The first few weeks of the 2008 season haven't been kind to many top contenders. Many teams that were labeled as early front-runners in their divisions, or even early world series favorites, have struggled to get above, or sometimes even reach, the .500 mark. What's even more unusual is the good starts for some American League teams who were thought to be the worst in baseball (such as the Athletics and Orioles). We're over three weeks in, and if the playoffs were to start today, we'd have the Athletics, White Sox, and Marlins in!


The Phillies have had a mediocre start at best. They already weren't playing that well when Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins went down. The short-term loss of these two key players has left the Phillies without a natural leadoff man, somebody who has a history of running well and maintaining a healthy batting average. They've tried a bunch of new, odd lead-off men; late-inning defensive replacements Eric Bruntlett and So Taguchi, as well has middle-lineup outfielders Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth. What the Phillies are left with is a power-hitting lineup that has trouble (even more so than before) putting runners on base, resulting in a lot of home runs, but not a whole lot of runs.



The pitching has also been topsy-turvy thus far. Cole Hamels has pitched well in all four of his starts. Brett Myers needed some time to find a groove, as he's still adjusting after closing for a season. Adam Eaton has pitched surprisingly well thus far, while Jamie Moyer looks like he might be aging (surprise!) a bit too fast. Whether Kyle Kendrick will be able to return to his stellar form of 2007 is yet to be seen. The bullpen has met a problem similar to last year: inconsistency. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge haven't allowed an earned run yet, but beyond that, the relief pitching has been par at best.



In my mind the keys for the Phillies in 2008 will be staying healthy (last year almost every member of the entire starting lineup was injured at one point or another), and maintaining consistency. This team is loaded with talented players, but they continue to be plagued by the fact that half of them seem to be struggling or sidelined on any given day. For instance, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley have been on a tear, while Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino (prior to his injury) haven't been doing so hot. As the pennant race heats up, it's going to be imperative that the men in the starting rotation have settled into their roles, and can give consistent performances night in and night out. The bullpen, as it did in September of last year, will have to be made up of at least a few arms who can shut down opposing batters in the final three innings, and hold on to leads in critical games. Finally, the Phils have to get comfortable at the plate. You can't win a title if you constantly have two or three of your best players in a slump.

One thing that worries me is how proactive Pat Gillick will be when it comes to making necessary mid-season moves. It often seems as if Gillick is just riding out his final year with the team, waiting for retirement. Gillick passed up an opportunity to get a bargain deal on Kyle Lohse, a solid arm who could have helped to anchor down the shaky starting rotation. The $4 million or so that Lohse wanted was quite low given the typical baseball salaries these days, especially considering that he wanted 4 years and $30 million earlier, and was now willing to take a petty one year pack. Gillick did a good job when he picked up Lohse last year at the trade deadline, and that move probably made the difference in the NL East race. Gillick needs to continue to make smart moves such as the Lohse deal, capitalizing on opportunities when they come.

Power Rankings- Week of 4/21/08

National League:

1 (6) Diamondbacks- The D'Backs league-leading 116 runs (thats 6.4 a game) has no doubt been the difference maker for the Diamondbacks thus far. They've clearly been the heavyweight in the NL in April.
2 (3) Mets- The Mets may be missing Pedro Martinez and Moises Alou, but they've shown strong depth to back up those losses. The Mets have posted some convincing wins against the Phillies, gaining a head start in a critical season series that could have major implications in the pennant race.
3 (4) Phillies- The injuries of Jimmy Rollins (now on the 15-day DL) and Shane Victorino have left the Phillies without the top of their lineup, leaving them without a proper leadoff man. They will probably continue to struggle as these injuries linger, but the Phils have already proven that they can pick up the scraps when it counts.
4 (2) Padres- The Padres are 9-9, hovering around the .500 mark similar to a lot of National League contenders. April's too early to really worry about this, so the Phillies, Rockies, Padres, and Braves shouldn't be too worried.
5 (9) Cubs- Similarly to the D-Backs in the west, the Cubs are leading the NL Central because of their 111 runs scored, second in the majors to only the Diamondbacks.
6 (8) Brewers- The Brew Crew started 6-2, but they've cooled off a bit since then. Expect it to be a race between them, the Cardinals, and the Cubs for the NL Central crown,
7 (5) Rockies- The Rockies have started flat, seeming to have lost the magic of their wonderous September. The question remains whether the Rockies were a fluke gone to far, or are a legitimate contender that can return to the World Series.
8 (11) Cardinals- If Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainright can continue to exceed expectations, and provide solid starts day in and day out (as they have been doing thus far), the Cardinals could easily become the front-runner in the NL Central.
9 (7) Braves
10 (1) Dodgers- The lackluster play by Andruw Jones, and the whole team in general, drops the Dodgers from being my #1 into the large mass of mediocre NL teams. Unlike other teams wandering around .500, the Dodgers have the most to worry about. Joe Torre better start earning his paycheck soon if he wants to return to the playoffs for the umpteenth straight time.
11(12) Astros
12 (16) Marlins- The Marlins lead the NL East?!?!?! How is this even possible? ....I'll answer that one for you: Their strength of schedule is by leaps and bounds the worst in the divison. The only team they've played above .500 was the Mets, who won that series 2-1.
13 (13) Giants
14 (14) Reds
15 (10) Nationals- After a strong 3-0 start, the Nationals have dropped 14 out of 16, earning the worst record in baseball
16 (15) Pirates


American League

1 (1) Red Sox-
2 (3) Angels-
3 (2) Yankees-
4 (5) Mariners-
5 (4) Indians
6 (6) White Sox-
7 (8) Tigers- It's been 19 games, and they're still playing flat. I think the Tigers can turn it around, but they need to do it soon if they want to compete in the tough AL pennant race.
8 (10) Athletics-
9 (11) Rangers
10 (7) Blue Jays-
11 (14) Orioles- With a record of 11-8 it's almost like the Orioles are a contender, or something crazy like that...
12 (9) Twins-
13 (12) Royals- 9-10! KEEP BREAKING OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!! Finally, something for Royals fans to celebrate...
14 (13) Rays-

Power Rankings- 4/3/07

National League:


1 (2) Dodgers - It's always fun to see Larry Bowa go beserk on an umpire, but for godsakes, you're a third base coach. Stay in the box (as the rule dictates), both literally, and symbolically. You don't get to yell at umpires anymore- you're not important enough.
2 (3) Padres
3 (1) Mets- Pedro Martinez is going to be out for at least 6 weeks, if not much longer. With Moises Alou injured as well, one must begin to wonder if the Mets' key veterans can stay healthy this season.
4 (2) Phillies- The Phillies are now at the point where they're trying to avoid being swept by the Nationals of all teams. One day their pitching falls apart, the next their bats. I wouldn't worry too much, as it's only the first week, and the Phillies have proven they can fight back. It is disconcerting, though, that the Phillies have begun the season with play reminiscent of their play in 2007. Kicking off the season with the pitching falling apart has many fans worried.
5 (5) Rockies
6 (6) Diamondbacks
7 (7) Braves
8 (9) Brewers- The Brewers have struck first and second in the battle of the NL Central heavyweights, up 2-0 in their series against the reigning-champion Cubs.
9 (8) Cubs
10 (13) Nationals- The Nationals are 3-0? Say it ain't so! The Nationals have played well in their first three games. They got lucky yesterday due to the Phillies bats running cold. Could the Nationals be a contender this year?
11) Cardinals
12) Astros
13) Giants
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- The Marlins win on a walk-off against the Mets, with shades of the Marlins ownage of the Mets last September... Who the hell is Robert Andino anyway?


American League

1) Red Sox- Win the opening series 3-1, although it's only the Athletics that they beat.
2) Yankees-
3) Angels-
4) Indians
5) Mariners-
6) Tigers- Injuries to Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson hurt, but that doesn't drop Detroit past the Blue Jays.
7) Blue Jays-
8) White Sox-
9) Twins-
10) Athletics-
11) Rangers
12 (13) Royals- 2-0! BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!!
13 (13) Rays-
14 (12) Orioles- 10,000 fans on the second game of the season?!?! What is this, Montreal?

My Thoughts On Opening Day

Ugly. Disappointing. Worrying. These are a few ways to describe the Phillies' first game of the season, coming off their NL East title. The Phillies offense was at full power, but the pitching met the same challenges as last season. Brett Myers went 5 innings- four were strong, but he allowed four runs in the fifth. The Nationals tagged on two more, but the Phillies, aided by homers by Utley and Rollins, climbed back to tie it at 6-6. It remained 6-6 until the top of the ninth, when Tom Gordon allowed 5 runs, handing the Phillies a disappointing loss and yet another 0-1 start.

The thing that worries me about this game is how quickly the pitching fell apart. Brett Myers crumbled in the fifth, leaving us to wonder if he's ready to start pitching more than 5 or 6 innings after closing last year. Gordon, who is key to the bullpen, earned himself an ERA of 135.00 in a terrible outing that earned him more boos than Adam Eaton received during the pre-game introduction (and you know how much Philly hates Adam Eaton).

One must wonder if this bullpen really will be stronger this year, or if the bullpen woes will continue into 2008.

Myers Makes a Bold Statement

Last Year, before the season began, Jimmy Rollins stated that he thought the Phillies were the "team to beat" in the NL East. Yesterday, Brett Myers made a bold statement of his own, one that I'd suggest keeping an eye on: Myers believes the Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball.

I wouldn't rule this one out; all five of the Phillies starters (Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton) have the potential to be solid starters, but the real question is whether they can avoid the problems they've faced. Hamels is quite prone to injury. Myers was a closer for most of last year, and was 0-3 as a starter anyway. Moyer is the oldest player in baseball. Kendrick is subject to the dreaded "Sophomore Curse". Eaton has been struggling with injuries, and hasn't been near 100% for quite a while now. I could see all of these guys with records of well above .500, but they have some problems, and potential problems, they need to deal with.

Garciaparra Down, Helms in for Dodgers?

As discussed earlier this month, there have been rumors of the Dodgers having interest in Wes Helms, who would play backup to Nomar Garciaparra at Third Base. Now, Garciaparra has broken his finger, making the chances of dealing Helms a bit more likely.

Lohse Finally Signed

Kyle Lohse's Scott Boras-induced nightmare is over. Lohse has reportedly signed a 1-year pact with the Cardinals, with $4 Million or $5 Million. Boras tried to sell Lohse at almost twice that much per year, over four years, but nobody bit. Lohse is lucky to even get a major-league deal at this point.

Hamels Punches Wall, Creates New Continent

Okay, obviously this isn't true, but the Serious Sports Network runs some pretty, well, unreal stories. And they are HILARIOUS. They do some great work over there, it's a wonder they haven't gotten more press coverage. A true pleasure for any fan of sports and satire. *Click here* to see the story from this post's title.

*Click here* to see another classic Cole Hamels one: "Hamels Performs own Tommy John Surgery, Recovers Immediately"

Helms to Dodgers?

With Third Baseman Andy LaRoche expected to be out for at least a couple months, the Dodgers have decided that Nomar Garciaparra will be manning the hot corner opening day. However, Garciaparra isn't expected to play in every game, so the Dodgers are looking for a backup to fill in once or twice a week. Joe Torre has said he prefers to look within the organization for that backup, but it's possible that they could make an offer for the Phillies' Wes Helms. Helms is now all but out of a job, due to the signing of Pedro Feliz.

If a deal happened, it would probably involve Helms going to the Dodgers for a draft pick (or draft picks), and maybe a pitcher if the Phillies are lucky. Acquiring Helms probably wouldn't be worth giving any sort of notable prospect for the Dodgers, and the Phillies don't need any more no-better-than-mediocre pitchers- they have plenty of those.

The Marlins and Braves have also shown interest in Helms. The Phillies seem to be aware of this, as they've been giving Helms a lot of playing time in Spring Training, despite the fact that he's a contender for the bench at best.

What might draw the Phillies into making a deal is getting Helms off the payroll. Helms is scheduled to make $2.15 Million this year. If the Phillies could get him off their payroll, they may have money to sign another free-agent- *cough cough* Kyle Lohse *cough cough* Armando Benitez. Then again, considering the Phillies' spending patterns, they could just pocket the money rather than use it towards winning a championship.

Projected 2008 Opening Day Roster (6th Edition)

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
SP Adam Eaton
LRP Chad Durbin
LRP Francisco Rosario
SU Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
CP Tom Gordon
-- Brad Lidge*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Greg Dobbs
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

*Injured, but not on Disabled List

Notes:

• It remains to be seem whether Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms will be on the Opening Day roster. Having both is a very unlikely proposition, and would likely only happen if either of them are traded, or if Eric Bruntlett was sent down to AAA. The Phillies are unlikely to opt to have more than five bench players (five are shown here). At the moment, it looks like a toss-up between the two.
• Brad Lidge will probably not be fully ready for opening day (although it's looking like he might rush himself out of excitement), meaning that Tom Gordon will move from set-up man to interim closer.
• I wouldn't say Fransico Rosario is anywhere close to a definite; there will be a lot of competition for a bullpen spot or two, and there are a lot of contenders
• Adam Eaton will probably be on a short leash. Expect Kris Benson (once he's healthy) and Chad Durbin to be next in line for that rotation spot. Shane Youman and Travis Blackley are also options.
• I like what I've seen from Joe Savery during Spring Training. A bit further down the road this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phillies give him a shot in the rotation, a la Kyle Kendrick.
• Kyle Lohse would be a huge boost, and his value has decreased from about 4 years $40 Million to 1 year $4 Million (another player screwed by agent Scott Boras). Still, the Phillies don't want to spend any more money. Lohse would be a huge boost to the rotation, and I fail to see why they won't take such an incredible bargain.

Power Rankings- Week of 2/25

It's been a while since the last rankings, coming later than usual in the week, as I've been very busy. Here are my official, pre-spring training power-rankings...

National League:

1 (1) Mets- Lost their first Spring Training game yesterday, while the Phillies won. Frivolous, maybe, but it's not a great start for the Mets, coming off their collapse.
2 (3) Dodgers
3 (4) Padres
4 (2) Phillies- It's no surprise that an overexcited, oft-injured closer Brad Lidge hurt his knee pitching during Spring Training a few days back. In his absence, which could extend past opening day, the Phillies will likely have to move Tom Gordon to closer. Lidge's injury also raises the question of whether he can remain healthy this season which is key as Lidge is the keystone of the Phillies pitching staff. He has blamed his lackluster 2006 and 2007 campaigns on lingering injuries (rather than the Albert Pujols home run in the 2005 NLCS), making one wonder if 2008 will be any different.
5 ) Rockies
6) Diamondbacks
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals
11) Astros
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Signing OF Luis Gonzalez gives them veteran leadership, but I doubt Gonzo will have much of a short-term effect.


American League

1) Red Sox- Signed SP Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, to a minor-league deal. Sounds like the ideal sleeper pick to me...
2) Yankees- Added 3B/IF Morgan Ensberg earlier in the month. He could make a run at their First Base position currently looking to be filled by Shelley Duncan or Jason Giambi
3) Angels- CP Francisco Rodriguez, aka K-Rod, wants out of Anaheim- ehem, Los Angeles- after this year, due to some sour contract talks and an arbitration hearing. He's making $10 Million this year.
4) Indians
5 (6) Mariners- Their addition of SP Erik Bedard pushes them past the Tigers. Look for the Mariners, along with the Tigers and Indians, to be pretty much the only teams that will give a real challenge to the Red Sox or Yankees (whoever is in second in the AL East) in the Wild Card race
6 (5) Tigers- Ticket sales have been extremely successful for the club, probably due to the excitement over their acquisition of 3B Miguel Cabrera and SP Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins.
7) Blue Jays- Apparently new Blue Jay 3B Scott Rolen would have been open to being traded to the Phillies. The reality here is that the fans hate him; and it seems to be an awful coincidence that his interest in returning rises during the off-season after we won the division crown.
8) White Sox- The White Sox are stuck in the AL cellar that has proven almost as inescapable as a black hole, but they're poking their head out. Things look to be on the rise for the Sox, who two years after winning a world series, finished 72-90 last year.
9) Twins- Johan Santana is gone, but the Twins still have are in what I like to call AL Purgatory. They still have some falling to do before they drop into the fiery abyss below them.
10) Athletics- Signed semi-retired closer Keith Foulke to a one-year deal. Foulke signed with the Indians last year, but retired before opening day. You may remember him as the pitcher who pitched the last out in the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
11) Rangers
12 (13) Rays- Barry Bonds could be on his way to Tampa Bay. Bonds would likely be a distraction during the season, but then again, what is there to distract them from?
13 (12) Orioles- Trading away SP Erik Bedard moves the Orioles even deeper into the AL cellar. With so many washed up has-beens on the team, however, I think the O's could make some splashes if they play their cards right
13 (14) Royals

Lidge Out, Myers Moves to the Pen

Brad Lidge sustained an injury when he caught a spike in the pitcher's mound over the weekend. It has now been discovered that he damaged his meniscus, and will miss 3-6 weeks. Mitch Williams said on Comcast Sports Net that 6 weeks seems very unlikely, so that's good news.

This leaves the Phillies with a Brett Myers dilemna. It is unclear whether Myers will return to his closer role, or if Tom Gordon or another reliever will take over. Williams recommends the latter, and I agree with that. Let Myers stay in the rotation, so he can have some stability this year. I think Gordon will close, with Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero doing set-up.

Maybe the Phillies will be smart and try to get Kyle Lohse. Due to Scott Boras trying to oversell him, the demand for Lohse has dropped so greatly, that some think he may only get a minor-league deal. Quite a far cry from four years, $30 Million.

Lidge's injury is the sports gods just kicking Philly while it's down. The Flyers losing streak and loss of Simon Gagne for the season and Mike Richards for three weeks was already unbearable.

When it rains at the sports complex, it pours...

Phillies Sign Kris Benson

After watching him throw outside his Atlanta home, the Phillies inked oft-injured pitcher Kris Benson to a minor-league deal. Benson still has some rehabbing to do, and as a result will probably not be ready by opening day.

The Same Old Story

We all know the Phillies are the most consistently dissapointing team in sports history. Sure, you may have forgotten the fact that lost more than 10,000 games. Even worse, in ironic fashion, we've managed to be among a very select teams to put together a winning record each of the past five years. That's actually would be a good thing... except for the fact that we've only made the playoffs once, despite our lowest winning percentage over that span being .524 in 2006.

We were constantly tortured with playoff aspirations, to the point that virtually nobody truly believed in the Phillies in 2007 until Brett Myers struck out Willy Mo Pena to clinch the division title. Oh, and getting swept in the NLDS? Never happened. It was just a bad dream. The Phillies won the NL East, but in many fans' minds, the playoffs were irrelevant, because now, we have hope.


Despite our new faith in the Phillies, they are still mostly the same team as last year. If they weren't, you would surely see them at #1 in my power rankings. Instead, despite the fact that their lineup has three of the very best players in the National League, and the fact that managed to win a title last year with the same lineup doesn't seem to carry the weight it would for any other team.

In 2007 we managed to overcome the powerful Mets and get the 2nd seed in the National League despite almost every one of our players being injured at some point. Need a very brief refresher?

• Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
• Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
• Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
• Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
• Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
• Freddy Garcia: 6/8-End of Season
• John Lieber: 6/20-End of Season
• Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
• Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
• Ryan Madson: 7/29-End Of Season
  

Unfortunately, the skepticism surrounding Philadelphia's teams has always caused everyone from the casual fan to the senior reporter to come to expect something to go wrong. As injuries go, the Phillies, as they stand, would have massive problems if one of their key pitchers goes down. We were so comfortable with our pitching last year that we had a 6-man rotation at one point. Look at what we ended up with. If it weren't for Kyle Kendrick, who knows what would have happened to us.

Speaking of Kendrick, we also have to worry about the formidable "sophmore curse", which involves a skilled second-year player transitioning from "beginners luck" into taking on a regular role on a team. This curse isn't superstitious at all- it's a real problem that comes about more often that you may think.

Now, as if Kendrick isn't worrisome enough, look at the rest of our rotation. Cole Hamels has been on and off the DL for years, for reasons ranging from breaking his arm to getting in bar fights. Jamie Moyer is so old he could drop dead any second (although so does Brett Favre). Brett Myers was 0-3 as a starter last year. Adam Eaton still has to recover from an injury that hurt him a lot last year. Also, if Kyle Lohse comes back (an unlikely prospect), don't forget he had a losing record last year. And now, with the Mets' addition of Johan Santana, things could get even uglier for the Phillies.

A "Blast" From the Past

When the Phillies won the NL East last year, the echoes of doubters calling the Phillies a "Choke Team", one that will never win the big game, finally subsided. That day put a bit of hope in all of us, because even though the 24-year-old "Curse of Billy Penn" had not oficially subsided, we all began to believe in Philly's sports teams. The integral part of the curse, our doubt, is gone, and although unofficially so, I believe that curse is, in essence, as good as history. But to remind everyone of how terrible the curse once was, I've posted this article- one of many over the years that provided false hope that the Phillies were the team to beat.

Just remember as you read it the three events that ended the curse:

1. Jimmy Rollins says the Phillies are the team-to-beat
2. Four-Game Sweep of the Mets on August 30th
3. Capturing the NL East title

One final note: to those of you say the Rockies series proves we're still cursed, or who will say we're still cursed if Rollin's prediction of winning 100 games being a game too high, you can all take your pessimism and walk over to Lincoln Financial Field. You don't win them all, even if you aren't cursed. Nobody's perfect, but that doesn't mean that everyone is cursed.

*My reaction is placed after the article*

Five reasons to pick the Phillies

By Jayson Stark of ESPN.com
Updated: September 16, 2003

Of course, the Phillies are going to win the wild card and go on to the National League playoffs. They have no choice. It's their destiny.

One last stand at the Vet? It could be a house of horrors for Florida.
It's the Law of the 3.

As far back as anybody can remember -- as long as the anybodys in question can't remember back to the 1970s -- the Phillies always go to the playoffs in years ending in a "3." They're required to, by law. The Law of the 3.

In 1993, they went from last place the year before to the World Series. In 1983, they were only two games over .500 on Labor Day, then rallied improbably to go to the World Series. And now it's 2003. So what choice do they have? They have to win. It's the law. But just for the heck of it, here are five other reasons:

1. Experience- True, the Phillies have made a lot more visits to Pat's Steaks over the last 20 years than they've made to the playoffs. Nevertheless, 12 current Phillies have appeared in a postseason series, vs. eight Marlins. And of those 12 Phillies, 10 play a prominent role of some kind or other.

Jim Thome and Placido Polanco are regulars. So is David Bell, who could be back for the final week. Kevin Millwood fronts the rotation. And five Phillies relievers have postseason experience. Only the backup catchers -- Todd Pratt and Kelly Stinnett -- are irregulars. And Pratt, who is available to pinch-hit, once hit an extra-inning home run that won a playoff series, for the 1999 Mets.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have just two everyday players who have batted in a postseason game -- Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Conine. Of the other six, only Todd Hollandworth has more than 101 at-bats or a dozen innings pitched as a Marlin. And isn't it supposed to be that big-game experience that shows up at times like this?

2. Jim Thome- What Barry Bonds is to the Giants, Thome is to the Phillies ... except Thome's teammates actually like him.

Thome is already the first Phillie in two decades to hit 40 homers in a season. He's about to become the third Phillie in the last 48 years to drive in 120 runs (joining only Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski). He owns 17 postseason home runs -- which are 17 more than all the Marlins combined (and tied with Bernie Williams for the most among active players). Thome's career postseason home run ratio (one every 12.5 plate appearances) is second only to Babe Ruth (10.8).

But most important, says one scout, "he's a big-game player. He'll be the best player on the field every night. Players like him rise to the occasion in these games." If he does, that'll be OK with the Phillies. They're 27-8 when he homers. And the Marlins' rotation and bullpen are both heavily right-handed.

3. Left-right offensive balance- Speaking of Thome, he has hit 35 more home runs this year than all of the Marlins' left-handed hitters combined. Yep, the Fish have hit exactly five left-handed homers all season -- and one of them was by Dontrelle Willis. (Three were by Hollandsworth and one by Juan Pierre.)

So it's no surprise that the Phillies are 16 games over .500 (70-54) in games started by a right-hander, while the Marlins are only four games over (59-55). The Phillies bat .262 against right-handers and .264 against left-handers, while the Marlins' splits are .260-.288.

And guess which hand all three Phillies starting pitchers will throw the baseball with in their three games in Philadelphia this week? That would be the right hand. And best we can tell, the Marlins will face only three left-handed starters (against whom they're 24-11) the rest of the season.

4. The Vet- The not-exactly-beloved Veterans Stadium doesn't have long to live now: Two more weeks, unless the playoffs stop by. Well, Camden Yards, it isn't. Pac Bell, it isn't. Heck, Stade Olympique, it isn't. There's a good chance nobody in baseball, football or any other activity known to man will miss it. But the Phillies will.

They just finished their most torturous schedule stretch of the year: 27 games in 27 days in seven different cities. Only a week of that marathon was spent at home. But now, of their remaining 13 games, the Phillies play 10 of them at the Vet. And at the Vet, the Phillies are 16-4 since July 29, and 11-1 since Aug. 13.

Since their only loss was to the Red Sox on Labor Day, they haven't lost to a National League team at home in more than a month. After the Marlins leave, the Cincinnati/Louisville Reds visit for three. After a day off, the Phillies play three in Florida, then close up the Vet with three emotional games against Atlanta.

As the Vet's life span dwindles, the crowds will grow, the memories will flow, and the passion will reverberate. And the Phillies have fed off that all year. Since their home-opener loss to the Pirates, they're 13-4 at home in front of crowds over 35,000. Of course, Florida swept them at home in July. But the Marlins haven't won in Pennsylvania since. OK, so they haven't played in Philadelphia since, either. But they did get swept in Pittsburgh last month.

5. The Eagles-In some cities, maybe it wouldn't be a good thing for the local baseball team to have the local football team start its season playing more like Louisiana-Lafayette than like the next Super Bowl champ. But in Philadelphia, life is different.

In Philadelphia, the Eagles' crummy start just means people get nastier and angrier and more frantic than usual. So they can either spend the next two weeks snarling at the Eagles, or they can turn to other stuff.

The Phillies could very well be that other stuff, especially if they keep winning, and the entire city isn't washed into the sea by a hurricane. In a city desperate to win something, anything, the Phillies have a chance to capture the hearts of a wounded public, replace that Eagle-induced pain with a road-to-October joy and send the Vet to the dynamite crew with a special triumphant glow.

Then again, they could also go 0-12, finish fourth in the NL East and force all the suicide hotlines to go to 24-hour operation. But this is supposed to be the Why-Good-Stuff-Will-Happen-to-the-Phillies section of this package. So forget you just read that last sentence. Or else.

------

After reading this article, you probably think I am insane to say we aren't cursed any more. High expectations seem to be the norm in Philadelphia, and so does dissapointment. However, if you remember, nobody in Philly ever really believed in the Phillies, and 2003 was no exception. However, I think that our NL East title last year changed everything. The fact that we now believe in the Phillies means that the curse is no longer valid, but rather as good as dead.

Whew, That Was Close

The Boston Herald is reporting that Curt Schilling has sustained a torn rotator cuff, the origin of which is unknown, as is the time when the injury occured. Schilling may miss the entire season if he needs surgery, and given his age, such an injury might result in Schilling calling it quits.

Despire Schilling's close ties to Philadelphia and the Phillies' organization, there is no doubt that Pat Gillick is breathing a sigh of unexpected relief. Early in the off-season, it looked as if the Phillies were going to sign Schilling. The Sox are trying to void Schilling's $8 million dollar contract that they reached with him back in November, but picture what would have happened had the Phillies signed him. Brett Myers would likely still be the closer since Brad Lidge would have never been acquired, and the Phillies wouldn't have had the money to spend on Pedro Feliz, or maybe even Geoff Jenkins. Things would have taken the usual Phillies'-turn-for-the-worse, but it seems we've got lady luck on our side this time, leaving this fan saying, "What Curse?"

"Projected" 2009 Roster

We're coming up on the final week before Spring Training 2008... but it's never too early to think about 2009. With that in mind, I present to you the Phillies projected 2009 25-man roster...

SP Cole Hamels (L)
SP Brett Myers
SP Curt Schilling
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Clay Condrey
MRP Mike Zagurski (L)
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Brian Fuentes (L)
CP Joe Nathan
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Pedro Feliz
3B Greg Dobbs
CF Shane Victorino
LF Milton Bradley
RF Geoff Jenkins
OF T.J. Bohn
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Jason Jamarillo

Interest in Odalis Perez

The Phillies have expressed interest in lefty starter Odalis Perez, watching him work out in the Dominican Republic. Perez will likely be competing with Kris Benson for a minor-league deal, but a decision would probably only occur after the Phillies watch Benson throw again sometime in the next week. Since a Kyle Lohse signing seems unlikely (although I feel otherwise) due to payroll concerns, and the Mets' interest, it is looking like the Phillies will move forward with their current roster, and maybe Perez or Benson.

Zolecki: Lohse Signing Unlikely

According to Inquirer Writer Todd Zolecki, a signing of Kyle Lohse is, in fact, unlikely. According to assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr., the chances were "fairly low.

This isn't all that suprising given the fact that the Mets still seem interested in the righty after their trade for Johan Santana. In my mind, I'd give a deal about a 20% chance of working out.

Expect the Phillies to more actively pursue Kris Benson now that talks with Lohse are stalled.

Hot Stove Update

With just about two weeks until Spring Training, it's crunch time if the Phillies want to make some moves. Here's an update:

• Pedro Feliz signed a two-year, $8.5 Million dollar contract with the Phillies, with a third-year option and incentives that could raise the total to $15 Million.
• The signing of Feliz spells doom for the Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms platoon at third, and also means that there's probably only going to be a spot for one of them on the 25-man roster. Both play first and third, but Dobbs can play outfield as well.
• For said reason, it looks like Dobbs and Helms are on the trading block. It doesn't look like it could be enough to make an offer for a big-name pitcher like Erik Bedard, but some prospects or bullpen help could come in a trade involving either of these guys. My guess is that these guys carry about the same trade value as Michael Bourn did. Dobbs put up good stats last year considering the amount of playing time he recieved, and Helms is a seasoned veteran, so there might be a team who would be interested in either of their services.
• The Phillies will watch Kris Benson throw again next week. the oft-injured Benson's value has dropped, and may only recieve a minor-league deal. He could be brought to Spring Training if he's signed, where he could compete for that fifth rotation spot, or maybe even a spot in the bullpen.
• The only other free-agent starter the Phillies have been looking into recently is Kyle Lohse. Lohse may be a bit too pricey for the Phillies to sign at the moment, but since the Mets have dropped their interest, nobody else seems interested. If this remains the case, the Phillies may sign him at a discount price.
• Adam Eaton should be the fifth starter. This would likely change should Lohse be signed. Other possible candidates for that spot are Benson (if he's signed), Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, and J.D. Durbin. Later in the season, we could very well see prospects Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Scott Mathieson, and Josh Outman in that mix.
• The free-agent relief market is pretty much dead right now. It's looking like the bullpen will consist of Brad Lidge closing, Tom Gordon doing set-up, and Ryan Madson working the seventh. J.C. Romero is the only lefty that has a sure-fire spot in the bullpen. Chad Durbin will be covering long-relief if he's not in the rotation. Otherwise, it looks like there will be a lot of competition in spring training for the last two (or maybe three if Eaton isn't pitching) spots on the roster. Consider Travis Blackley, Shane Youman, J.D. Durbin, Lincoln Holkzdom, Scott Mathieson, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, John Ennis, Mike Zagurski, Josh Outman, and Joe Savery all candidates. The Phillies are making somewhat of a gamble, hoping that one of these guys will step up a-la-Kyle Kendrick and provide the pitching staff much-needed depth.
• There's no telling who the Phillies could sign, especially after seeing the suprise offer to Mike Lowell earlier in the season. Pat Gillick is quite opaque when it comes to being able to tell who he's pursuing.

Five Smart Moves, 2nd Edition

Time to explore the five smartest moves the Phillies could make in the upcoming weeks...

1) Wait until Spring Training is just about to start before signing Free-Agent Kyle Lohse
Being patient hasn't really turned out to be the best way for the Phillies to go about this off-season, but when it comes to Kyle Lohse, it has certainly worked. Lohse originally was looking for four years, and $30-40 Million a season. The Phillies didn't bite on that price, as one would expect, but virtually no other team did either. The Mets and Phils had four-year offers out to Lohse back in December, but the Mets eventually shifted their focus to Johan Santana. Now, it looks like it's become a seller's market for Lohse, as he's starting to get a bit desperate, and he many only get two or three years with maybe $5-7 Million a year. There have been faint rumors of the White Sox and Astros still having interest, but it looks like Lohse is going to have to just take the best offer he can get, and that will most likely be in Philadelphia. If he's still available when Spring Training starts, he'll be desperate enough that we can get him at a discount.

2) Sign Free-Agent Kris Benson, preferably to a minor-league deal
The oft-injured, ex-Orioles pitcher's value has dropped, as he didn't make a great impression to the many scouts who watched him throw a few weeks back. Benson could be useful if a starter goes down. Benson will throw again next week, and similarly to Lohse, he'll likely be cheap by the time Spring Training starts. A one-year deal worth a million-or-so could end up helping the Phillies, but it certainly won't hurt. If Lohse isn't signed, then I would put a bit more focus on trying to get Benson.

3) Sign Free-Agent reliever Armando Benitez
It seems like a no-brainer that the Phillies would add a free-agent reliever (besides J.C. Romero) to help reinforce a bullpen that hasn't been improved too much over last year's disaster. Benitez is the best option out there, but there are plenty of them. The Phillies can't do much (trading aside) to strengthen their bullpen at this point, but this move may pay off down the stretch.

4) Consider Jayson Werth and Adam Eaton as being on the trade block along with Wes Helms
The Phillies aren't likely to get anything useful if they trade only Wes Helms, and nobody else. The ability to have a platoon in right field (Werth/Jenkins) isn't overly important, and Adam Eaton could easily be replaced with Kyle Lohse or another starter. If the Phillies consider all three of these guys, along with other players, as being available to trade, they may get something useful in return- probably a reliever or spot-starter.

5) Actually live up to their word on pitching
This seems redundant given #1-3, but GM Pat Gillick and assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. have consistently labeled the focus "pitching, pitching, pitching", but since the J.C. Romero signing, they've done little to address it. Our staff looks to have little, if any, improvement over last year's. It looks like it's a bit late for the Phillies to go after the big guys, but they've balked on too many good free-agent pitchers. There's still time for Gillick and Amaro to get a bit more aggressive in finding a pitcher. They seem content with the status quo, having a lot of candidates vie for spots on the pitching staff, but when you're in such a tight division and league, you can't start April without a solid rotation, and with a shaky bullpen. The Phillies can contend, but they need an extra arm that can help reinforce the pitching staff.



Expect the Phillies to sign Lohse. I'd say Benson is more likely than not to end up being signed, especially if Lohse isn't. A Helms trade seems probable, but I have my doubts that the Phillies will include anyone other major-league players in such a deal. Beyond those possible moves, I don't see anything else happening before Spring Training begins exactly two weeks from now.

Power Rankings- Week of 1/28

It's been four weeks since the last rankings, largely because of the hot stove cooling off a bit. Enjoy...

National League:

1 (6) Mets- The Mets' signing of SP Johan Santana helps them reclaim a slight advantage over their division rival, and chief competition, the Phillies. The NL East is really too close to call, but it looks as if the Mets may have the upper hand.
2 (5) Phillies- Signing 3B Pedro Feliz was a good move for the Phillies, but one would wonder why the Phillies have done little to adress their "main goal" of "pitching, pitching, pitching". The best they're hoping for right now is SP Kyle Lohse. Ruben Amaro Jr. has been offering more promises than usual, and hopefully Pat Gillick and he will fulfill them.
3 (1) Dodgers
4 (2) Padres
5 (3) Rockies
6 (5) Diamondbacks
7) Braves- Traded for OF Mark Kotsay
8) Cubs- Signed former Phillie SP Jon Lieber
9) Brewers- Signed OF Mike Cameron
10) Cardinals- Sent former Phillie 3B Scott Rolen to the Jays for 3B Troy Glaus
11) Astros- SP Roger Clemens could end up back in Houston. I'm not sure if that's a positive or not.
12) Giants
13) Nationals- C Paul Lo Duca will be out until the middle of Spring Training so the Nats signed former Phillie C Johnny Estrada just in case.
14) Reds
15) Pirates
16) Marlins- Aren't keen to the idea of acquiring C/DH Mike Piazza, who wants to play for them and would probably be a good influence. This would require the Marlins to actually be slightly better this year, and that's what the Marlins seem to want to avoid


American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- The Yankees seem to be out of the Santana race at this point.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Rumors about a possible trade for the Orioles' SP Erik Bedard have been spreading like wildfire. It's not clear whether a deal with happen or not; false reports of one were made by MLB.com and a lot of other sources earlier this week.
7) Blue Jays- Traded Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen
8) White Sox
9) Twins
10) Athletics- Fans don't want OF Barry Bonds, but he's still a possibility
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Still trying to work out a deal to trade Erik Bedard
13) Rays- Signed OF Cliff Floyd
14) Royals- Signed SP Brett Tomko

Mets Get Santana

The Mets have made a tentative deal with Johan Santana, which looks to be a 6-year deal. Needless to say, this will have major implications on this year's pennant race, and pennant races for years to come. The Phillies are likely to put up bad numbers against lefties to start with.

Something good does come out of this. It looks like we're the only team in the race for Kyle Lohse, so it's likely that we'll sign him. He should be a Phillie again within the next two weeks.

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
• Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
• I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Phillies Reportedly Sign Feliz

ESPN.com, and the Phillies official website report that the Phillies have agreed to a two-year pact with free-agent Third Baseman Pedro Feliz.

This deal doesn't come as a suprise to anyone, and leaves the Phillies with one of the best rosters in baseball. Feliz is a .253 batter, with 20 homers and 72 RBIs. It's a far cry from the Mike Lowell deal that almost went down, but Feliz is the best Third Baseman still on the market.

I applaud this move, if and only if the Phillies still plan on acquiring another reliable pitcher. I feel like our third base situation has been made to look like worse than it actually is, and that the Phillies aren't doing enough to actively pursue pitchers.

Then again, what does anybody know when it comes to Pat Gillick. Maybe Sammy Sosa could even be next, with his .328 average against lefties, since Gillick seems to keep making broken promises about signing pitchers.

Lidge Trade

Let me preface by saying I have never been a big fan of the concept of a closing pitcher. To get a genuine closer- one that has the lights-out pitches that they use to shut teams down in the ninth inning- such as Mariano Rivera, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, or Eric Gagne you generally need to spend a lot of money. Using another pitcher as a closer (i.e. Brett Myers), one who can't deliver those killer pitches, sort of defeats the purpose of the role.


That role, in my opinion, is very often not worth the $7-8 Million dollars a year Gagne and Percival got this off-season, or the $15 Million a year Rivera is getting. To me, one upgraded inning over maybe a third of your games isn't worth it. Closers are posterboys; a closer is the guy who the catcher picks up and bear hugs when a championship is one. Their blazing fastballs draw the awe of fans and make a team look strong when they win the game. However, it's just one inning (albeit in almost a third of your games), and there's a lot you could do for your rotation or your lineup with that kind of money.



Brad Lidge is ranked 13th in MLB.com's current fantasy rankings for closers, despite coming off a mediocre, injury-plagued 2007 season. Until giving up the game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in game 5 of the 2005 NLCS, Lidge was one of the top closers in baseball. Since then, he hasn't been so great, but the Phillies are hoping that Lidge's new start in Philadelphia will help him move on. If he does so, he can regain his confidence and hopefully begin to dominate batters in the 9th inning just as well as he once did, back in 2004 and 2005.



Lidge is up for salary arbitration. In 2007 he earned $5.35 Million, part of a one-year deal, and I suspect his earnings will be around that after arbitration. Lidge is a risk, but he's going to be a free agent after this season, meaning if he fails to meet expectations we can be done with him after one year. If he has a stellar year, though, it's possible he won't re-sign with the Phillies, and go where the best contract offer is (similarly to Aaron Rowand).



Now, despite my skepticism over the importance of a closer, I think adding Lidge was a great move for Pat Gillick to make (although I wish more moves had followed). We gave up little to get Lidge. Michael Bourn's speed and contributions to outfield depth were easily replaced with So Taguchi and Chris Snelling. Geoff Geary did fill a long-relief mode that was huge to the Phillies in September, but it's unclear if he'll continue be that good in 2008.



The reason Lidge is so vital to the Phillies is the simple fact that our bullpen is absolutely terrible. We need a strong closer to shave off that ninth inning in key games, because our bullpen is thin on talent. As a result, that one inning- given our bullpen's ERA- will more often then not cost us a run. With Lidge hopefully giving us solid 9th inning outings when needed, and Tom Gordon working at set-up man in the 8th , we’re left with fewer innings where we’re stuck with our weaker relievers. Meanwhile, Brett Myers can fill a major hole in the rotation, where hopefully he’ll be effective despite having to re-adjust after a season in the bullpen.


Is this an improvement over last year’s pitching staff? Possibly. I’m not sure if I’d rather have Myers starting and Lidge closing than Kyle Lohse starting, Geary relieving, and Myers closing, but given the amount Lohse would cost us if we re-signed him, I don’t think pursuing him is really an option. Lohse also has a career losing record, and he also had a losing record in 2007, despite his good run with the Phillies. Signing another free-agent starter was also a possibility, but this move is a higher-risk, potentially more rewarding move.

Recently Seen on Wikipedia

Lidge and Madson Sign, Avoiding Arbitration

Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson both signed one-year deals with the Phillies yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Lidge will get $6.35 million, and Madson $1.4 million. These figures are about what both of these guys would have gotten through arbitration, but it's always healthy to avoid the arbitration process.

The only players left on the arbitration list are Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies' current payroll is about $85 million, and after these two arbitration hearings my guess is that the payroll will jump to about $100 million- about $5 million more than last season- if not more. That would likely mean that the Phillies have room for one more big free-agent signing. At this point, it looks like the top candidates 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Kris Benson, and SP Kyle Lohse. Expect the Phillies to wait until right before spring training before making an offer, in an effort to be able to give a lower offer than they would now. Lohse would be the best candidate, especially if the Mets sign Johan Santana, but Scott Boras can be tough to deal with.

NOTE: Sorry, my math was terribly mistaken. The payroll shouldn't go any higher tht $95 million, last years mark, so possibly two notable signings will be made

Still In the Running for Lohse

Despite the Phillies claiming they were out of the running for Kyle Lohse, they are actually in the running for him (gee, haven't we seen this sort of thing before?). Lohse backed off his demand for a four-year contract, and now wants three and a vesting option. In an online chat last week, Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies are still talking to Scott Boras about a possible deal (at least unlike Pat Gillick, Amaro doesn't have his head... well at least one of them is showing initiative.


Personally, I feel a four-year deal offer would definitely be too long considering it was based solely on Lohse's late-season success. Now that it's three years, I'd probably go for it. There is a weak market for free-agent pitchers now, and Lohse is arguably the best out of all of them. Signing Lohse would allow Chad Durbin to pitch out of the bullpen, and would leave the Phillies with five reliable starters (Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer, and Lohse), and Adam Eaton when he's healthy again. The added starting pitching depth is crucial, and probably the best move the Phillies could make at this point. You can't contend for a title with a shaky rotation.

Don't count out other starters on the market, such as Kris Benson either. The Phillies are probably going to wait another month or so to see what happens with Benson. If he's still available, the Phillies may be able to make him a lower offer than they could now.

Ruben Amaro Answers Questions From Fans Online

Minutes ago, Assistant General Manager Ruben Amaro answered questions from fans in a Phillies.com chat. Here are some notable tidbits of information from his answers:

• Amaro believes pitchers Scott Mathieson and Josh Outman are the farm-team players most likely to end up on the Phillies this year.
• He thinks the bullpen will be strong, if the rotation stays healthy
• The Phillies are unlikely to re-sign Jose Mesa
• He says the lineup is unlikely to change between now and training camp
• The Phillies are unlikely to sign Bartolo Colon due to reservations about his health
• The Phillies are still having "continued discussions" with Scott Boras over possibly re-signing Kyle Lohse
• The Phillies aren't interested in Josh Fogg

The Bullpen in '08

The Phillies search for a free-agent starter ended with the signing of journeyman free-agent, former Tigers pitcher Chad Durbin. The signing of Durbin has made it clear that the Phillies intend for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, indefinitely vacated by Adam Eaton’s injury, with one of many unlikely candidates, including Durbin, from within the organization- at least until we are sure if Eaton will be our fifth man in the rotation down the stretch. With the lineup more than adequate, the one place the Phillies have yet to focus on this off-season is the bullpen.
As the Phillies displayed last season in their search for a starter to fill an ailing rotation, they are willing to throw prospect after prospect on the mound until they find the right guy. They eventually settled in with Kyle Kendrick, and what they got was a 10-4 Rookie of the Year candidate who saved the rotation from certain doom. During the first few weeks of the season, and later if an injury occurs to a starter, expect the Phillies to throw guy after guy out there again.

Meanwhile, also similarly to last season, these two-dozen-or-so mediocre pitchers, prospects and journeymen alike, will make up a large part of the Phillies bullpen. Expect the Phillies AAA Pitching staff, relievers, and the fifth spot in the rotation, to be one giant mixing pot.


We know that the Phillies core group of relievers is as follows:

• MRP J.C. Romero (Left-Handed Pitcher)
• SU Tom Gordon
• CP Brad Lidge
  

Here is the Phillies "Official" Bullpen Depth Chart (from their website):
B. Lidge (CL), T. Gordon, J. Romero, R. Madson, S. Mathieson, C. Condrey, M. Zagurski, F. Rosario, C. Durbin

Here is CBS Sportsline's Depth Chart for Starters:

C. Hamels, B. Myers, J. Moyer, A. Eaton, K. Kendrick, C. Carrasco, J Durbin, C. Durbin, S. Mathieson, T. Blackley, J. Outman, J. Savery

Here is CBS Sportsline's Bullpen Depth Chart:
B. Lidge, T. Gordon, R. Madson, J. Romero, F. A. Rosario, C. Condrey, F. Castro, J. Ennis, M. Zagurski, S. Youman, L. Holdzkom, Y. Hernandez, V. Darensbourg, K. Wilson, J. Anderson, M. Childers, J. Pope, R. Swindle, R. Chiavacci, G. Knotts, B. Mazone

Seem like a lot to take in? I'm going to assume the answer is yes, considering I haven't heard of nearly a third of those guys. It's interesting how the CBS Sportsline one puts Eaton before Kendrick, and Chad Durbin is seventh. It's a reminder of how weak our bullpen is when we see Brad Lidge, who was mediocre in 2007 at best, as our top guy in the pen. Undoubtedly we'll be relying a lot on starters like the Durbins.

While everything except the top four spots in the rotation, the set-up man, and closer is very unclear at this point, I've compiled my own bullpen depth chart. I'm not going to make one for starting pitching, since who can and may start beyond Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Kendrick is very unclear at this point. Here is my organization depth chart for the bullpen (although it doesn't go that deep into the organization), which for all intents and purposes counts everyone except those four, Eaton (who is unlikely to pitch out of the bullpen at all at least for the first couple months of the season) Lidge, and Gordon, as long-or-middle-relievers, not starters or closers.

1. J.C. Romero
2. Ryan Madson
3. J.D. Durbin
4. Clay Condrey
5. Chad Durbin
6. Shane Youman
7. Scott Mathieson
8. Fabio Castro
9. Francisco Rosario
10. Travis Blackley
11. Carlos Carrasco
12. Lincoln Holdzkom
13. John Ennis
14. Matt Zagurski
15. Josh Outman
16. Joe Savery
    

Granted this list may have a slight shortage of veterans or any sort of potential rookie-of-the-year candidates, but this list contains the guys the Phillies are hoping at least one of which will step up and follow in the footsteps of Kyle Kendrick. Now, it may take a heck of a lot of scouting, and maybe 3-10 games down the drain to find the right guy- that is, if we ever find the right guy.

A lot of the young guys in here may get a chance on the 40-man roster, especially down the stretch. Otherwise, expect maybe 6 or 7 of the above guys in the pen.

These guys definitely create one of the most makeshift bullpens we've seen for a long time. Maybe this roll of the dice will result in a bullpen better that last year, or maybe it will be even worse- something this fan doesn't even want to think about.

Jayson Werth Re-Signed

Outfielder Jayson Werth, who as a backup and platoon right-fielder hit .298 this season, was signed to a 1-year, $1.7 Million dollar contract, avoiding arbitration. This figure seems about what he'd get from arbitration, maybe a bit less considering Werth's often-underlooked batting average from last season. Werth will probably be a part of a platoon in right-field with Geoff Jenkins, although Jenkins will probably recieve more playing time.

Power Rankings- Week of 1/7

National League:

1) Dodgers
2) Rockies-
3) Padres- Signed Mark Prior to a 1-year deal worth $1 Million with another $4.5 Million in incentives. Good signing- cheap, albeit risky given Prior's health woes.
4) Diamondbacks
5) Phillies- Traded speedy outfielder Chris Roberson for cash. Is this cheap penny-pinching, or gathering money for a future deal? The answer to this question will certainly effect where the Phillies rank come Spring Training.
6) Mets
7) Braves
8) Cubs
9) Brewers
10) Cardinals- Signed starter Matt Clement, who is just coming off a shoulder surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2007 season.
11) Astros- Added versatile reliever Oscar Villarreal and old-news outfielder Darin Erstad. Ed Wade is making a lot of moves, but it's hard to see if they were the right ones. The Astros could be a contender or one of the worst teams in the league depending on how Wade's deals work out for them.
12) Giants
13) Nationals
14) Reds
15) Pirates
?????? Marlins


American League

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees- Hank Steinbrenner says Roger Clemens will not be returning to the Yankees this season.
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- In a distant third in the race for Johan Santana, but are pretty much out at this point.
7) Blue Jays
8 (10) White Sox- Picking up Nick Swisher from the Athletics pushes the Sox back the Twins.

9 (9) Twins- Still in limbo due to the uncertainty surrounding whether or not Santana will be traded. If it happens, the Twins will likely plunge into the league cellar, unless the players they recieve end up having a spectacular 2008 season.

10 (8) Athletics- Traded Swisher to the White Sox for prospects, and now their interest has dropped in Barry Bonds (although he's still on their radar). It seems the A's are making like the Marlins and thrusting themselves the the league cellar in hopes of a better future. Expect them to make more moves towards that end.
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Traded cash to the Phillies for Chris Roberson.
13) Rays
14) Royals- Signed catcher Miguel Olivio to a one-year deal.

Projected 2008 Roster, 4th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• Players who could be next in line (noted with their usual position) :
  -From the 40-Man Roster: SP Scott Mathieson, RP Matt Zagurski (L), LRP/SP Shane Youman (L), LRP John Ennis, SP Travis Blackley (L), MRP Fabrio Castro (L), C Jason Jaramillo, 2B Brad Harman, OF Chris Snelling, and OF T.J. Bohn
  -Not on Current Roster: SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman (L), SP Joe Savery (L), and C Pete LaForest
• LaForest was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley recently.
• Chris Roberson was traded yesterday to the Orioles for cash. Hopefully that cash goes towards a big-name pitcher such as Bob Wickman or Bartolo Colon, but for the time being that looks unlikely. It seems more likely that the Phillies will do as they did last season and wait until the trade deadline.
• If Adam Eaton is at-or-near 100%, expect him to be the fifth man in the rotation. If not, expect the Phillies to start the season with Chad Durbin in that position. However, the Phillies may try out some alternative options, especially if Eaton will be out for more than a few weeks. The Phillies are preparing for this by having 24 pitchers on their 40-man roster and 7 non-roster invitees, at least one of which the Phillies hope will be another Kyle Kendrick.
• Beyond Chad Durbin and Eaton, the Phillies could end up experimenting with some of the following pitchers (or even other pitchers not yet in the running) for the fifth spot in the rotation, depending on who does a good job of showing their stuff during spring training (the list is conviniently ordered from most to least likely): J.D. Durbin, Youman, Blackley, Mathieson, Carrasco, Ennis, Outman, Savery.
• If Eaton won’t be starting, expect him to be on the disabled list until he’s at-or-near 100%. At that time he’ll probably do some rehab assignments, make a relief appearance or two, and come back into the rotation. How fast all this happens depends how desperate the Phillies are to have him back. It is also a possibility that, like Jon Lieber, or John Smoltz (okay, maybe not the fairest comparison), Eaton could end up pitching in the bullpen when he returns.