My Thoughts On Opening Day

Ugly. Disappointing. Worrying. These are a few ways to describe the Phillies' first game of the season, coming off their NL East title. The Phillies offense was at full power, but the pitching met the same challenges as last season. Brett Myers went 5 innings- four were strong, but he allowed four runs in the fifth. The Nationals tagged on two more, but the Phillies, aided by homers by Utley and Rollins, climbed back to tie it at 6-6. It remained 6-6 until the top of the ninth, when Tom Gordon allowed 5 runs, handing the Phillies a disappointing loss and yet another 0-1 start.

The thing that worries me about this game is how quickly the pitching fell apart. Brett Myers crumbled in the fifth, leaving us to wonder if he's ready to start pitching more than 5 or 6 innings after closing last year. Gordon, who is key to the bullpen, earned himself an ERA of 135.00 in a terrible outing that earned him more boos than Adam Eaton received during the pre-game introduction (and you know how much Philly hates Adam Eaton).

One must wonder if this bullpen really will be stronger this year, or if the bullpen woes will continue into 2008.

Myers Makes a Bold Statement

Last Year, before the season began, Jimmy Rollins stated that he thought the Phillies were the "team to beat" in the NL East. Yesterday, Brett Myers made a bold statement of his own, one that I'd suggest keeping an eye on: Myers believes the Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball.

I wouldn't rule this one out; all five of the Phillies starters (Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton) have the potential to be solid starters, but the real question is whether they can avoid the problems they've faced. Hamels is quite prone to injury. Myers was a closer for most of last year, and was 0-3 as a starter anyway. Moyer is the oldest player in baseball. Kendrick is subject to the dreaded "Sophomore Curse". Eaton has been struggling with injuries, and hasn't been near 100% for quite a while now. I could see all of these guys with records of well above .500, but they have some problems, and potential problems, they need to deal with.

Projected 2008 Opening Day Roster (6th Edition)

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
SP Adam Eaton
LRP Chad Durbin
LRP Francisco Rosario
SU Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
CP Tom Gordon
-- Brad Lidge*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Greg Dobbs
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

*Injured, but not on Disabled List

Notes:

• It remains to be seem whether Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms will be on the Opening Day roster. Having both is a very unlikely proposition, and would likely only happen if either of them are traded, or if Eric Bruntlett was sent down to AAA. The Phillies are unlikely to opt to have more than five bench players (five are shown here). At the moment, it looks like a toss-up between the two.
• Brad Lidge will probably not be fully ready for opening day (although it's looking like he might rush himself out of excitement), meaning that Tom Gordon will move from set-up man to interim closer.
• I wouldn't say Fransico Rosario is anywhere close to a definite; there will be a lot of competition for a bullpen spot or two, and there are a lot of contenders
• Adam Eaton will probably be on a short leash. Expect Kris Benson (once he's healthy) and Chad Durbin to be next in line for that rotation spot. Shane Youman and Travis Blackley are also options.
• I like what I've seen from Joe Savery during Spring Training. A bit further down the road this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phillies give him a shot in the rotation, a la Kyle Kendrick.
• Kyle Lohse would be a huge boost, and his value has decreased from about 4 years $40 Million to 1 year $4 Million (another player screwed by agent Scott Boras). Still, the Phillies don't want to spend any more money. Lohse would be a huge boost to the rotation, and I fail to see why they won't take such an incredible bargain.

The Bullpen in '08

The Phillies search for a free-agent starter ended with the signing of journeyman free-agent, former Tigers pitcher Chad Durbin. The signing of Durbin has made it clear that the Phillies intend for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, indefinitely vacated by Adam Eaton’s injury, with one of many unlikely candidates, including Durbin, from within the organization- at least until we are sure if Eaton will be our fifth man in the rotation down the stretch. With the lineup more than adequate, the one place the Phillies have yet to focus on this off-season is the bullpen.
As the Phillies displayed last season in their search for a starter to fill an ailing rotation, they are willing to throw prospect after prospect on the mound until they find the right guy. They eventually settled in with Kyle Kendrick, and what they got was a 10-4 Rookie of the Year candidate who saved the rotation from certain doom. During the first few weeks of the season, and later if an injury occurs to a starter, expect the Phillies to throw guy after guy out there again.

Meanwhile, also similarly to last season, these two-dozen-or-so mediocre pitchers, prospects and journeymen alike, will make up a large part of the Phillies bullpen. Expect the Phillies AAA Pitching staff, relievers, and the fifth spot in the rotation, to be one giant mixing pot.


We know that the Phillies core group of relievers is as follows:

• MRP J.C. Romero (Left-Handed Pitcher)
• SU Tom Gordon
• CP Brad Lidge
  

Here is the Phillies "Official" Bullpen Depth Chart (from their website):
B. Lidge (CL), T. Gordon, J. Romero, R. Madson, S. Mathieson, C. Condrey, M. Zagurski, F. Rosario, C. Durbin

Here is CBS Sportsline's Depth Chart for Starters:

C. Hamels, B. Myers, J. Moyer, A. Eaton, K. Kendrick, C. Carrasco, J Durbin, C. Durbin, S. Mathieson, T. Blackley, J. Outman, J. Savery

Here is CBS Sportsline's Bullpen Depth Chart:
B. Lidge, T. Gordon, R. Madson, J. Romero, F. A. Rosario, C. Condrey, F. Castro, J. Ennis, M. Zagurski, S. Youman, L. Holdzkom, Y. Hernandez, V. Darensbourg, K. Wilson, J. Anderson, M. Childers, J. Pope, R. Swindle, R. Chiavacci, G. Knotts, B. Mazone

Seem like a lot to take in? I'm going to assume the answer is yes, considering I haven't heard of nearly a third of those guys. It's interesting how the CBS Sportsline one puts Eaton before Kendrick, and Chad Durbin is seventh. It's a reminder of how weak our bullpen is when we see Brad Lidge, who was mediocre in 2007 at best, as our top guy in the pen. Undoubtedly we'll be relying a lot on starters like the Durbins.

While everything except the top four spots in the rotation, the set-up man, and closer is very unclear at this point, I've compiled my own bullpen depth chart. I'm not going to make one for starting pitching, since who can and may start beyond Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Kendrick is very unclear at this point. Here is my organization depth chart for the bullpen (although it doesn't go that deep into the organization), which for all intents and purposes counts everyone except those four, Eaton (who is unlikely to pitch out of the bullpen at all at least for the first couple months of the season) Lidge, and Gordon, as long-or-middle-relievers, not starters or closers.

1. J.C. Romero
2. Ryan Madson
3. J.D. Durbin
4. Clay Condrey
5. Chad Durbin
6. Shane Youman
7. Scott Mathieson
8. Fabio Castro
9. Francisco Rosario
10. Travis Blackley
11. Carlos Carrasco
12. Lincoln Holdzkom
13. John Ennis
14. Matt Zagurski
15. Josh Outman
16. Joe Savery
    

Granted this list may have a slight shortage of veterans or any sort of potential rookie-of-the-year candidates, but this list contains the guys the Phillies are hoping at least one of which will step up and follow in the footsteps of Kyle Kendrick. Now, it may take a heck of a lot of scouting, and maybe 3-10 games down the drain to find the right guy- that is, if we ever find the right guy.

A lot of the young guys in here may get a chance on the 40-man roster, especially down the stretch. Otherwise, expect maybe 6 or 7 of the above guys in the pen.

These guys definitely create one of the most makeshift bullpens we've seen for a long time. Maybe this roll of the dice will result in a bullpen better that last year, or maybe it will be even worse- something this fan doesn't even want to think about.

Projected 2008 Roster, 4th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• Players who could be next in line (noted with their usual position) :
  -From the 40-Man Roster: SP Scott Mathieson, RP Matt Zagurski (L), LRP/SP Shane Youman (L), LRP John Ennis, SP Travis Blackley (L), MRP Fabrio Castro (L), C Jason Jaramillo, 2B Brad Harman, OF Chris Snelling, and OF T.J. Bohn
  -Not on Current Roster: SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman (L), SP Joe Savery (L), and C Pete LaForest
• LaForest was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley recently.
• Chris Roberson was traded yesterday to the Orioles for cash. Hopefully that cash goes towards a big-name pitcher such as Bob Wickman or Bartolo Colon, but for the time being that looks unlikely. It seems more likely that the Phillies will do as they did last season and wait until the trade deadline.
• If Adam Eaton is at-or-near 100%, expect him to be the fifth man in the rotation. If not, expect the Phillies to start the season with Chad Durbin in that position. However, the Phillies may try out some alternative options, especially if Eaton will be out for more than a few weeks. The Phillies are preparing for this by having 24 pitchers on their 40-man roster and 7 non-roster invitees, at least one of which the Phillies hope will be another Kyle Kendrick.
• Beyond Chad Durbin and Eaton, the Phillies could end up experimenting with some of the following pitchers (or even other pitchers not yet in the running) for the fifth spot in the rotation, depending on who does a good job of showing their stuff during spring training (the list is conviniently ordered from most to least likely): J.D. Durbin, Youman, Blackley, Mathieson, Carrasco, Ennis, Outman, Savery.
• If Eaton won’t be starting, expect him to be on the disabled list until he’s at-or-near 100%. At that time he’ll probably do some rehab assignments, make a relief appearance or two, and come back into the rotation. How fast all this happens depends how desperate the Phillies are to have him back. It is also a possibility that, like Jon Lieber, or John Smoltz (okay, maybe not the fairest comparison), Eaton could end up pitching in the bullpen when he returns.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ROTATION??? / Pat Gillick Makes Brett Myers Cry at Night

In the last installment of the "What Happened to The Phillies" / "%#(@ You Pat Gillick" we examined the Phillies' new closer, Brad Lidge. Now, we will follow our former closer, Brett Myers, along his exile back to the rotation. Since the Phillies failed to sign any sort of reliable starter, Brett Myers is forced to become the #2 man in the rotation, which he is very unhappy with...



"I'm upset," Myers said Thursday, "not with the Phillies, because I understand the situation. I'm upset because I think I really found myself and my role this year as a closer. I know, because I've been told that I'm best suited to be a closer."

"I understand what's going on, and I understand that for this team, me going back to being a starter is the move to make," Myers said. "I definitely like closing more. I like having the ball in my hands four or five days [a week]. The only thing I don't like in starting is, I may go nuts those four days in between getting the ball."
...
Said Myers: "There are positives in this. I think I've proven myself as a closer and as a starter. If the time comes and I'm on the market as a free agent, instead of two teams needing a starter and two needing a closer, I can make myself available as both to 30 teams.
"This doesn't mean I'm unhappy in Philly. I love the team. I love the fans. But from a personal standpoint, this certainly can help me in the long run."

Source: The News Journal









Needless to say, Brett Myers looks like a very unhappy man :(


Moving Myers to the starting rotation was a Plan-C type move that Gillick, despite him and Charlie Manuel continuously denying any chance of Myers moving out of the closer role. Now, Myers cries himself to sleep at night over Pat Gillick, while Brad Lidge does the same over Albert Pujols. It's okay Brett, Gillick doesn't only lie to you. He told us that he was going to spend big bucks on pitching a day before he offered over $35 Million to Mike Lowell.

It also worries me that the only positive Myers now sees in this move is that it will be easier for him to get out of Philadelphia, given that as recently as a few months ago it looked like Myers could have a great, happy future with the Phils.

All this results in the following rotation:

1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Kyle Kendrick
4. Jamie Moyer
5. Peter Forsberg

As you can clearly see, I have absolutely no idea who will be filling the fifth spot in the rotation. Here are some candidates...

Adam Eaton: Eaton had a terrible 2007 due to a shoulder injury, and likely will not be 100% by opening day. When he's back to full strength, he will likely be back in the rotation.

Travis Blackley: The Rule 5 Draft pick is unlikely to have the stuff needed to start in 2008, and will likely be stuck in the back end of the bullpen or in the minors, but given the hole Pat Gillick has dug us into, I wouldn't be suprised to see him squeeze into the rotation.

Chad Durbin: His $900,000 contract is all he deserves. He is a journeyman pitcher who is unlikely to do much better than J.D. Durbin did last season, and a couple months ago there were hopes the Phillies would sign a bigger-name pitcher. At one point, it even looked like instead of Durbin we would sign Kyle Lohse and Curt Schilling. So much for that.

Beyond that, it is very unclear as to who will get that fifth spot. There are over a dozen candidates, prospect and journeyman alike, but nobody with stuff anywhere close to what Kyle Lohse brought.

I don't want to even imagine what happens if one of our solid starters goes down. We got lucky with Kyle Kendrick, but that's unlikely to happen again.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BULLPEN??? / The Sad Story of Brad Lidge

In part one of our potentially infinitely-parted series "What Happened to the Phillies" (aka "!$%# You Pat Gillick") we'll examine the ways the Phillies have gone from being poised to build a championship team back in November, to actually making the team worse this off-season despite a reported cap increase of $10-$15 Million. And of course, we will start with the greatest weakness our team had in 2007- pitching.

If you're a Phillies fan, and you think back to what you were doing last summer, you'll probably remember screaming at the image of Adam Eaton on your television screen, as he looked over his shoulder at another long ball he just dished out. Oh, you don't? My mistake, it could have also been Jose Mesa, Antonia Alfonseca, J.D. Durbin, Freddy Garcia, or pretty much any of the Phillies' pitchers. Alas, despite our generally abysmal bullpen, there was one true gem in there- Brett Myers. Everyone, including the coaches, Pat Gillick, and Myers himself, was very pleased with his performance as closer.

Taking all that into account, Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel said repeatedly that Myers would remain the closer. Apparently they were just kidding, because Gillick went ahead and traded for a replacement for Myers, Brad Lidge. In the process, they gave up young outfielder Michael Bourn, prospect Mike Constanzo, and reliever Geoff Geary. Geary had a great September and was part of the core of strong relievers that led the Phillies down the stretch, so Lidge must have been worth more than him, right? I mean, we gave up a couple young guns, and a decent middle reliever so we could replace our newfound closer.

Brad Lidge came to pitch for the Astros in 2002 as a middle-reliever (and even started a game where he batted 2 for 2 with 2 RBI's). With Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel traded by mid-2004, he became their closer. When that season ended, Lidge, his up-to-102 mph meatball, and his 29 saves were voted 8th in the Cy Young voting, and he set a new NL record for strikeouts by a reliever with a whopping 157. In 2005, Lidge was an all-star (in the all-star game he struck out the side and nobody even made contact on his pitches) and 30th in MVP voting with 42 saves and a 2.29 ERA, undoubtedly playing a big role in helping the Astros edge out the Phillies by one game in the wild card race. In that postseason, he helped lead the Astros to the NLCS in 2005, where they faced the Cardinals. In Game 5 in Houston, Lidge faced Albert Pujols with the Astros up by two. There were two runners on, and Albert Pujols was batting as the go-ahead run- and Pujols jacked him up, hitting the ball pretty much the farthest it could possibly go in a roofed stadium.

The Astros survived and later won game 6, sending them to the World Series. In game 2, Lidge gave up a walk-off homer to the White Sox' Scott Podsednik. Needless to say, Albert Pujols' shot hit Lidge right in the heart, and since that incident, Lidge has been nothing more than a mediocre closer- or at least a lesser one than Brett Myers. Lidge even lost his role periodically in 2007, before tossing 10+ scoreless innings to regain the role, finishing the season 19 of 27 in save attempts.

Lidge is excited about his new role with the Phillies, and Phillies fans are hoping that Lidge can overcome his emotional trauma and reclaim his role as one of the top closers in baseball. If he does so, trading for him will have been a great move. If he doesn't, and Pat Gillick doesn't have a backup plan for Lidge, the Phillies will be in deep trouble, because the only other remotely-solid relievers they have left behind Lidge are Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero.

Otherwise, Pat Gillick is rolling the dice on a dozen or so prospects, as he was forced to do last season when the great injury plague hit the Phillies. Needless to say that this is extremely dicey, and very likely to fully compensate for the bullpen's shortfalls, especially if Lidge doesn't produce.

The bottom line right now is that the Phillies' bullpen's future is very unclear. Pat Gillick is just praying that some of the young pitchers step up. It's unlikely to work, and at this point, it looks like the bullpen has thrown out it's up-and-coming, delighted new closer Brett Myers, forcing him angrily into his old job as a #1 or #2 starter, and replaced him with a broken man rehabbing from getting owned by Albert Pujols.

Mike Mussina

According to Bob Matthews of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, the Phillies have mild interest in the Yankees' Mike Mussina. Currently, the Yankees depth chart of starting pictching is looking as follows:

1. Chien Ming Wang
2. Andy Pettite
3. Phillip Hughes
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Mike Mussina
6. Ian Kennedy

There are a lot of things in play here. The Yanks could possibly go to a six-man rotation, in order to give their youngsters work as well as their experienced pitchers. Johan Santana ending up in New York is still slightly possible, but unlikely. It's also possible that Joba Chamberlain could remain in the bullpen (which is probably the weakest spot on the Yankees team), but at this point it seems more likely that he'll start. If the Phillies can put together a good deal for Mussina, an area native, the Yankees may be willing to deal.

And for your reading pleasure, I've offered some possible ideas for trades that could bring Mussina here (I didn't really explore possible minor league players up for trade, as that sort of a deal would be very hard to predict):

• Shane Victorino for Mike Mussina and Shelley Duncan
• Adam Eaton for Melky Cabrera and Mike Mussina
• Adam Eaton and Jayson Werth for Mike Mussina and Bobby Abreu
• Prospects for Mussina
• Adam Eaton for Mike Mussina and Kyle Farnsworth
• Pat Burrell for Johnny Damon and Mike Mussina
• Pat Burrell and Prospects for Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina

Here are the team needs:

The Phillies could use Mussina in the back of the rotation if Eaton is out or if someone else goes down, and could also use another right-fielder, center-fielder, or third baseman. The Yankees could offer Melky Cabrera in a deal, or even gool ol' Bobby Abreu if the Phillies include fielders such as Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino, or the rehabbing Adam Eaton.

The Yankees, as if they needed anything, probably wouldn't mind trading one of their older players (similar to Mussina) for young or rehabbing fielders or relievers, as they have enough depth to gamble on those guys. If the Yankees lose an outfielder, Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth may look attractive to them. Any of the many young pitchers the Phillies have could be added on to a trade. Beyond this, I'd never rule out Pat Burrell, despite his no-trade clause, due to the fact that the Yankees have the money to pay him, and it's unlikely Burrell would be completely against being traded to the Yankees.

Both teams could use help in the bullpen, so pitching prospects may play a key role in possible trade talks. Hopefully something with pan out.

Projected 2008 Roster, 2nd Edition

SP Cole Hamels
SP Hideki Kuroda*
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
RP Tom Gordon
RP J.C. Romero
RP Ryan Madson
RP J.D. Durbin
RP Adam Eaton
RP Jeremy Affeldt*
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
SS Eric Bruntlett
LF Pat Burrell
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF Chris Roberson
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
C Pete LaForest

Notes:

• In case you didn't know, J.C. Romero has been signed to a 3 year, $12 Million dollar contract with a $4.75 Million dollar option.
• Jeremy Affeldt is a placeholder- if he’s not there, I’m guessing another free-agent pitcher will be.
• Expect Chris Roberson and/or Pete LaForest to be the first to go in the likely event that the Phillies acquire somebody in a trade, add a prospect to the roster, add another pitcher, or add a more versatile utility player, etc. Roberson will not go unless an outfielder comes along- LaForest is more expendable.
• Adam Eaton and/or J.D. Durbin will be the first pitchers to go (likely after LaForest or Roberson if a pitching prospect or free-agent pitcher gets added to the roster.
• Adam Eaton is by far the most likely out of all these guys to get traded. Otherwise he may start but will more likely be sent to AAA or work out of the pen.
• Hideki Kuroda is a placeholder of sorts, as I think one out of many different free-agent starting pitchers could be signed for the rotation.
• In the likely event that one of the starters collapses, a prospect may find their way into the rotation, just like Kyle Kendrick did in 2007.
• Brett Myers could still possibly remain in the bullpen if two starters are added to the roster, or if he bombs like he did in the beginning of 2007.
• Players I don’t expect to see on this roster (less that 50% chance): Jeremy Affeldt, Hideki Koroda, and Pete LaForest.

Summary of Expected Off-Season Moves:

• Acquire one (or two) relief pitchers
• Acquire one (or two) starting pitcher
• Note: two starters and a reliever could be acquired, allowing Brett Myers to stay in the bullpen

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.


4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.


The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia


Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”


There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.


Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.


Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.




My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect

A Look into the Future?

On September 29, the Phillies lost a national broadcast game to the Washington Nationals 4-2, with a bad outing by Adam Eaton and a game of blown opportunities. They fell back into a tie with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Dissapointment was in the air. I've decided to take a ride in the old time machine, one year ahead of then, 366 days later, to the same date in 2008. While I was there, I was able to pick up this snippet from the Paper...

Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, 9/29/08

If you went around talking to any of the 44,000+ fans at Citizens Bank Park yesterday, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone with a downbeat attitude. That is, unless they were a Rockies fan.

It was a day of milestone-shattering, cheering, and redemption. The Fightin’s 12-3 victory marks their 5th straight win against the defending World Series champion Rockies, putting the Rockies a game-and-a-half back in the Wild Card race behind the 87-74 Braves. The Braves play a doubleheader today to end the season.

“This is our payback for last year,” said Jimmy Rollins, “They really beat us up last year in the playoffs, and now we’re getting our turn.” Rollins was 3-6 with 2 runs batted in.

The win moves the Phillies up to 93-68, and they will have the best record in the National League in two years, and the second-best record in baseball. Curt Schilling got his 14th win, going 7 strong innings, striking out 5. But, yesterday was a day for the records…

A year ago you wouldn’t find Mariano Rivera and the Phillies in the same sentence. Yesterday, Rivera got his 46th save, breaking Jose Mesa’s team record of 45 set back in 2002.
“This is unbelievable… this city is incredible. I’ve had a lot of great years, but my time here has soared above and beyond my expectations.”

However, the fans were already cheering like crazy for the big man, Ryan Howard. In the Bottom of the 8th Inning, with Mike Cameron on second and Mike Lowell on third, 2 outs, and the count 2-2, Howard hit an opposite field shot off LaTroy Hawkins. Chaos erupted- it was Howard’s 61st homer of the season, passing Babe Ruth and tying Roger Maris for the 7th most home runs in a single season in MLB history, also breaking his club record of 58.

“You grow up hearing all about the Babe, said Howard, “He’s probably the biggest slugger in history. To hit more home runs than he did, well, I can’t describe the feeling.”
If the Phillies win tomorrow, they face the Padres in the first round. If the Rockies win and the Braves lose both games of the doubleheader, the Phillies could face the Rockies instead.
Rollins smiled at the possibility, “Another series with them? Wow, this just gets better and better.”