Red Sox are World Series Champions

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, the 2007 World Series Champions. Seems like the curse has been reversed onto the Yankees after 2004...

As much as I wish that I could say the Rockies’ play in the series proves they only won the pennant by riding a streak, it’s not really true. When you look at the play of all the teams in the National League, the Rockies were clearly the best team.

What this series does demonstrate the dominance of the American League’s powerhouse teams versus the best teams in the National League. The American League tends to have a much larger margin of winning percentages between their playoff contenders and non-playoff contenders than the National League does. This, and the fact that the American League is a bit better than the National League as a whole, resulted in the American League’s playoff teams generally being much better than those of the National League. The 7-9 playoff contenders (depending on how you define a contender) in the National League had win totals in the mid-to-high 80s (the Rockies and Diamondbacks had 90), with 7 teams ending more than 5 games out of a playoff spot. In the American League, there were four teams with 94 or more wins, two teams with 88 wins, one with 84, and 8 teams 11 or more games out of the wild card hunt. In mid-September, the American League playoff spots were all but filled, while 10 NL teams had legitimate playoff hopes. You would have been hard-pressed to find any matchups in which Vegas would have favored any of the NL contenders over any of the AL contenders.

The National League provided an incredible September, with incredible drives by the Rockies and Phillies to make the playoffs, and many teams hung on until the last day. The American League’s September was pretty boring, as there wasn’t any sort of a down-to-the-wire finish in any of the races.

The playoffs ended up being pretty one-sided in both leagues. Only two series, both in the American League, were not sweeps: The Indians winning the ALDS 3-1, and the Red Sox winning the ALCS 4-3 after an impressive climb back from a 3-1 deficit. The one-sided matchups and elimination of most of the popular teams (i.e. the Yankees) ended up making the 2007 playoffs less watched and less interesting than previous years. The Rockies made a huge run that stemmed from the regular season, and the Red Sox overcame a 3-1 deficit, and swept the Rockies- not a lot of excitement here. This year, the regular season proved much more interesting, as it did in days of old.

On the subject of Mike Lowell, after winning World Series MVP, his market value has certainly gone up, lowering the chances the Phillies will end up acquiring him as a free agent.

Mid-Game Thoughts on World Series Game 1

Beckett has been great, but the story is the Rockies just weren't ready for the Sox. The hot offense and defense for the Rockies cooled down in Denver over the break. If you want evidence, here it is: Josh Beckett struck out the side in the first inning using nothing but 95 MPH fastballs- the Rockies' bats were too cold to hit a fast version the simplest pitch in baseball. The Rockies' pitching has also cooled off- there's no other explanation for the awful 7-run two-out Sox rally that just happened in the 5th, including Ryan Speier walking home three straight runs.

The Rockies were too hot for their own good- they created a long layoff that cooled them off in the end. Anyway, I don't think any NL team could beat out the Sox in the series the way the Sox are playing. Their making the Rockies look like the Rockies made the Phillies look in the NLDS.

Keys to the World Series, and Game-by-Game Predictions

Keys to The Series:

Road Play: For the Red Sox, adjusting to Coors Field is important- if they get even only just one win in Colorado, they are left only needing to win 3 at Fenway, which won’t be too hard to do. If they win two in Colorado, or even three, they’d almost certainly win. For the Rockies, stealing one at Fenway in the first two games could put them in the driver’s seat- they will very likely get two or three wins at home, which would let them bring a lead back to Fenway in game 6, or they may not even have to play at Fenway again. If the Rockies can’t get the momentum of winning one at Fenway in games 1 or 2, a return to Fenway in games 6 or 7 could be disastrous for the Rockies.

Young Pitchers: All four of the Rockies starters, and John Lester for the Sox, are all young pitchers who aren’t all that familiar with the fall classic. The Rockies’ pitchers have done incredible this postseason even with that fact, but now they’re playing a powerhouse American League opponent. The Rockies need these guys to continue to pitch strongly if they want any chance at all of winning, and a Lester win in Colorado would be a huge blow to the Rockies, who need to make their home games count.

Josh Beckett: If Beckett isn’t the MVP of the World Series, then the Rockies will probably be the ones raising the World Series trophy. Beckett has been absolutely ridiculous this postseason. He’s 3-0 in the playoffs with a 1.17 ERA. He’s the definite AL Cy Young winner, the only pitcher to win 20 games in 2007. His two wins undoubtedly saved the Sox in the ALCS. If the Rockies can muster just one win against him that would turn the series in their favor.

Momentum: The Rockies have won 21 out of 22 games, and the Red Sox just won three straight elimination games. The difference is that the Red Sox have had a 3-day layoff, the Rockies a 9-day layoff. If the Rockies are still hot after the long days they spent in snowy Denver, they can gain the advantage in the series. If the Rockies have died down, the Red Sox will destroy them. This being said, along with the last key, Game 1 happens to be the most important game of the series, especially for the Rockies, who could go from 2:1 odds of victory to 1:2 odds with a win over Beckett.


World Series Matchup:

Game 1: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: 65% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-3 Red Sox
It may be game 1, but this game can really make or break the series for the Rockies. They can prove they are still hot, and put aside worries about the 9-day layoff. More importantly, if they somehow beat the unstoppable Josh Beckett, I’d say their chances of winning the series go to 20% if they lost, and 50% if they won. Beckett should let up a few runs to the powerful Rockies lineup, but not enough to worry Sox fans.


Game 2: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: 50% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-6 Red Sox
The way Jimenez and Schilling have been pitching lately, I’d actually give Jimenez the edge. If both these guys pitch the way they have been pitching recently, I’d call this game as a coin flip. Assuming I have to give the advantage away, I’d say the Red Sox get it, unless the Rockies really make a strong rebound from game 1. If the Rockies won game 1, I’d say the chances are the same. A loss here would really be discouraging and devastating to the Rockies.


Game 3: Fogg vs. Dice-K
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 12-6 Rockies
Dice-K gets the obvious edge here, as he’s begun to settle down. The big question here is if the Red Sox can really perform in Colorado. I think that for this reason they probably will struggle for this game, and I see them losing. The Sox will have a much harder time on the road than the Rockies.

Game 4: Aaron Cook vs. John Lester
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 8-2 Rockies
Neither of these guys was too impressive during the season. The question for me in this game is if the Sox can adjust to Coors field. I say that’s not probable, and thus I give the Rockies the edge. Surprisingly to me, the Rockies aren’t down 3-1 in my book at this point.

Game 5: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: Red Sox 60%
Predicted Score: 6-4 Red Sox
I’d say there is an equally good and bad chance that the Red Sox will have trouble adjusting by now. Coors Field could possibly just stop them right in their tracks, or not. Beckett may have trouble pitching at Coors, but he’s Josh Beckett, one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball, so I think the Sox can squeeze one win out of the Rockies at Coors.

Game 6: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: Red Sox 70%
Predicted Score: 11-4 Red Sox
A win at Coors should drive the Rockies into a corner they haven’t been anywhere close to in over a month, and the Red Sox should win in their first game back at Fenway.


Red Sox win Series, 3-2
Word Series MVP: Josh Beckett
Other Candidates to note as of now: Matt Holliday, Kaz Matsui, Brad Hawpe, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez


things could happen. Here are some scenarios

Rockies win Game 1: 60% chance Rockies win series, predicted series outcome 4-2 Rockies

Rockies win first two games: 80% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies

First two games are split: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Rockies win all home games: 65% Rockies, 4-2 Rockies

Series goes back to Boston 3-2 Rockies: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Series go back to Boston 3-2 Red Sox: 80% Red Sox, 4-2 Red Sox

Rockies win first 3: 95% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies (you never know with the Red Sox though...)

Game 7 situation: 85% Red Sox

Thoughts on the World Series

The Rockies have only really gotten this far into the playoffs by riding a streak, and even though they've been able to keep it going on a few days' rest, it will have been nine days since their last game when they play the also-hot Red Sox Wednesday night. Now, the Sox are by leaps and bounds better than any team the Rox faced over their streak. This isn't to say that the Rockies may still be hot- despite the snow in Denver- come Wednesday. It's possible that the Rockies will really prove their worth, playing well even after that break. Still, even if they can do so, the Red Sox have just as much momentum. As much as I have a feeling that the Rockies are unstoppable, their facing another powerhouse now.

Red Sox are World Series Champs in 6 games

A Look into the Future?

On September 29, the Phillies lost a national broadcast game to the Washington Nationals 4-2, with a bad outing by Adam Eaton and a game of blown opportunities. They fell back into a tie with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Dissapointment was in the air. I've decided to take a ride in the old time machine, one year ahead of then, 366 days later, to the same date in 2008. While I was there, I was able to pick up this snippet from the Paper...

Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, 9/29/08

If you went around talking to any of the 44,000+ fans at Citizens Bank Park yesterday, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone with a downbeat attitude. That is, unless they were a Rockies fan.

It was a day of milestone-shattering, cheering, and redemption. The Fightin’s 12-3 victory marks their 5th straight win against the defending World Series champion Rockies, putting the Rockies a game-and-a-half back in the Wild Card race behind the 87-74 Braves. The Braves play a doubleheader today to end the season.

“This is our payback for last year,” said Jimmy Rollins, “They really beat us up last year in the playoffs, and now we’re getting our turn.” Rollins was 3-6 with 2 runs batted in.

The win moves the Phillies up to 93-68, and they will have the best record in the National League in two years, and the second-best record in baseball. Curt Schilling got his 14th win, going 7 strong innings, striking out 5. But, yesterday was a day for the records…

A year ago you wouldn’t find Mariano Rivera and the Phillies in the same sentence. Yesterday, Rivera got his 46th save, breaking Jose Mesa’s team record of 45 set back in 2002.
“This is unbelievable… this city is incredible. I’ve had a lot of great years, but my time here has soared above and beyond my expectations.”

However, the fans were already cheering like crazy for the big man, Ryan Howard. In the Bottom of the 8th Inning, with Mike Cameron on second and Mike Lowell on third, 2 outs, and the count 2-2, Howard hit an opposite field shot off LaTroy Hawkins. Chaos erupted- it was Howard’s 61st homer of the season, passing Babe Ruth and tying Roger Maris for the 7th most home runs in a single season in MLB history, also breaking his club record of 58.

“You grow up hearing all about the Babe, said Howard, “He’s probably the biggest slugger in history. To hit more home runs than he did, well, I can’t describe the feeling.”
If the Phillies win tomorrow, they face the Padres in the first round. If the Rockies win and the Braves lose both games of the doubleheader, the Phillies could face the Rockies instead.
Rollins smiled at the possibility, “Another series with them? Wow, this just gets better and better.”