Saturday, December 29, 2007

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ROTATION??? / Pat Gillick Makes Brett Myers Cry at Night

In the last installment of the "What Happened to The Phillies" / "%#(@ You Pat Gillick" we examined the Phillies' new closer, Brad Lidge. Now, we will follow our former closer, Brett Myers, along his exile back to the rotation. Since the Phillies failed to sign any sort of reliable starter, Brett Myers is forced to become the #2 man in the rotation, which he is very unhappy with...



"I'm upset," Myers said Thursday, "not with the Phillies, because I understand the situation. I'm upset because I think I really found myself and my role this year as a closer. I know, because I've been told that I'm best suited to be a closer."

"I understand what's going on, and I understand that for this team, me going back to being a starter is the move to make," Myers said. "I definitely like closing more. I like having the ball in my hands four or five days [a week]. The only thing I don't like in starting is, I may go nuts those four days in between getting the ball."
...
Said Myers: "There are positives in this. I think I've proven myself as a closer and as a starter. If the time comes and I'm on the market as a free agent, instead of two teams needing a starter and two needing a closer, I can make myself available as both to 30 teams.
"This doesn't mean I'm unhappy in Philly. I love the team. I love the fans. But from a personal standpoint, this certainly can help me in the long run."


Source: The News Journal









Needless to say, Brett Myers looks like a very unhappy man :(


Moving Myers to the starting rotation was a Plan-C type move that Gillick, despite him and Charlie Manuel continuously denying any chance of Myers moving out of the closer role. Now, Myers cries himself to sleep at night over Pat Gillick, while Brad Lidge does the same over Albert Pujols. It's okay Brett, Gillick doesn't only lie to you. He told us that he was going to spend big bucks on pitching a day before he offered over $35 Million to Mike Lowell.

It also worries me that the only positive Myers now sees in this move is that it will be easier for him to get out of Philadelphia, given that as recently as a few months ago it looked like Myers could have a great, happy future with the Phils.

All this results in the following rotation:

  1. Cole Hamels
  2. Brett Myers
  3. Kyle Kendrick
  4. Jamie Moyer
  5. Peter Forsberg

As you can clearly see, I have absolutely no idea who will be filling the fifth spot in the rotation. Here are some candidates...

Adam Eaton: Eaton had a terrible 2007 due to a shoulder injury, and likely will not be 100% by opening day. When he's back to full strength, he will likely be back in the rotation.

Travis Blackley: The Rule 5 Draft pick is unlikely to have the stuff needed to start in 2008, and will likely be stuck in the back end of the bullpen or in the minors, but given the hole Pat Gillick has dug us into, I wouldn't be suprised to see him squeeze into the rotation.

Chad Durbin: His $900,000 contract is all he deserves. He is a journeyman pitcher who is unlikely to do much better than J.D. Durbin did last season, and a couple months ago there were hopes the Phillies would sign a bigger-name pitcher. At one point, it even looked like instead of Durbin we would sign Kyle Lohse and Curt Schilling. So much for that.

Beyond that, it is very unclear as to who will get that fifth spot. There are over a dozen candidates, prospect and journeyman alike, but nobody with stuff anywhere close to what Kyle Lohse brought.

I don't want to even imagine what happens if one of our solid starters goes down. We got lucky with Kyle Kendrick, but that's unlikely to happen again.

Friday, December 28, 2007

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BULLPEN??? / The Sad Story of Brad Lidge

In part one of our potentially infinitely-parted series "What Happened to the Phillies" (aka "!$%# You Pat Gillick") we'll examine the ways the Phillies have gone from being poised to build a championship team back in November, to actually making the team worse this off-season despite a reported cap increase of $10-$15 Million. And of course, we will start with the greatest weakness our team had in 2007- pitching.

If you're a Phillies fan, and you think back to what you were doing last summer, you'll probably remember screaming at the image of Adam Eaton on your television screen, as he looked over his shoulder at another long ball he just dished out. Oh, you don't? My mistake, it could have also been Jose Mesa, Antonia Alfonseca, J.D. Durbin, Freddy Garcia, or pretty much any of the Phillies' pitchers. Alas, despite our generally abysmal bullpen, there was one true gem in there- Brett Myers. Everyone, including the coaches, Pat Gillick, and Myers himself, was very pleased with his performance as closer.

Taking all that into account, Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel said repeatedly that Myers would remain the closer. Apparently they were just kidding, because Gillick went ahead and traded for a replacement for Myers, Brad Lidge. In the process, they gave up young outfielder Michael Bourn, prospect Mike Constanzo, and reliever Geoff Geary. Geary had a great September and was part of the core of strong relievers that led the Phillies down the stretch, so Lidge must have been worth more than him, right? I mean, we gave up a couple young guns, and a decent middle reliever so we could replace our newfound closer.

Brad Lidge came to pitch for the Astros in 2002 as a middle-reliever (and even started a game where he batted 2 for 2 with 2 RBI's). With Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel traded by mid-2004, he became their closer. When that season ended, Lidge, his up-to-102 mph meatball, and his 29 saves were voted 8th in the Cy Young voting, and he set a new NL record for strikeouts by a reliever with a whopping 157. In 2005, Lidge was an all-star (in the all-star game he struck out the side and nobody even made contact on his pitches) and 30th in MVP voting with 42 saves and a 2.29 ERA, undoubtedly playing a big role in helping the Astros edge out the Phillies by one game in the wild card race. In that postseason, he helped lead the Astros to the NLCS in 2005, where they faced the Cardinals. In Game 5 in Houston, Lidge faced Albert Pujols with the Astros up by two. There were two runners on, and Albert Pujols was batting as the go-ahead run- and Pujols jacked him up, hitting the ball pretty much the farthest it could possibly go in a roofed stadium.

The Astros survived and later won game 6, sending them to the World Series. In game 2, Lidge gave up a walk-off homer to the White Sox' Scott Podsednik. Needless to say, Albert Pujols' shot hit Lidge right in the heart, and since that incident, Lidge has been nothing more than a mediocre closer- or at least a lesser one than Brett Myers. Lidge even lost his role periodically in 2007, before tossing 10+ scoreless innings to regain the role, finishing the season 19 of 27 in save attempts.

Lidge is excited about his new role with the Phillies, and Phillies fans are hoping that Lidge can overcome his emotional trauma and reclaim his role as one of the top closers in baseball. If he does so, trading for him will have been a great move. If he doesn't, and Pat Gillick doesn't have a backup plan for Lidge, the Phillies will be in deep trouble, because the only other remotely-solid relievers they have left behind Lidge are Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero.

Otherwise, Pat Gillick is rolling the dice on a dozen or so prospects, as he was forced to do last season when the great injury plague hit the Phillies. Needless to say that this is extremely dicey, and very likely to fully compensate for the bullpen's shortfalls, especially if Lidge doesn't produce.

The bottom line right now is that the Phillies' bullpen's future is very unclear. Pat Gillick is just praying that some of the young pitchers step up. It's unlikely to work, and at this point, it looks like the bullpen has thrown out it's up-and-coming, delighted new closer Brett Myers, forcing him angrily into his old job as a #1 or #2 starter, and replaced him with a broken man rehabbing from getting owned by Albert Pujols.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Power Rankings- Week of 12/24

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers
2 (2) Rockies- Signed 8-2 reliever Luis Vizcaino
3 (4) Padres
4 (5) Diamondbacks
5 (3) Phillies- After signing Geoff Jenkins, Chad Durbin, and So Taguchi, it looks unlikely that the Phillies will make any more moves. Should they end up doing so, they should drop a bit further down. Dissapointment in Pat Gillick is rampant. At this point, it looks like the Phillies are hoping that one or more of their many pitching prospects will step up to fill the fifth spot in the rotation or help in the bullpen.
6 (6) Mets
7 (7) Braves
8 (8) Cubs
9 (9) Brewers
10 (10) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros
12 (12) Giants
13 (13) Nationals
14 (14) Reds
15 (15) Pirates
????? (19) Marlins- The Dolphins won a game! For the Marlins, that should be a tough act to follow.


American League

1) Red Sox- They have reclaimed the title as the front-runner for Johan Santana.
2) Yankees- Still have a chance with Santana.
4) Indians
5) Tigers
6) Mariners- Signed Carlos Silva
7) Blue Jays
8) Athletics
9) Twins
10) White Sox- Signed outfielder and Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Will probably hold on to starter Erik Bedard, but the Phillies don't really have a chance with him anyway at this point.
13) Rays
14) Royals

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Phillies Sign So Taguchi

The Phillies signed outfielder So Taguchi to a one year deal valued around $1 million, with a team option for 2009.

The Phillies have done a lot of replacing of their players this off-season. Here's a simple rundown of the big replacements...

  • Tadahito Iguchi > So Taguchi
  • Geoff Geary & Brett Myers > Brad Lidge
  • Mike Costanzo & Michael Bourn > Eric Bruntlett
  • Kyle Lohse > Chad Durbin & Brett Myers
  • Aaron Rowand > Geoff Jenkins

Worrisome? Yes, considering the fact that we presumably had more cap room to work with this season than last season, we should have a better roster, not a worse one. Hopefully this squad will manage to improve on last year's; this greatly depends on the contributions of Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, the bullpen, whoever the fifth starter is, and last but not least, avoiding any major injuries to starting pitchers- unless we have another surprise rookie sensation such as Kyle Kendrick come along again.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Phillies to Play at Ironpigs' Inaugrual Game

The first game for the Phillies' new AAA Affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs, will be an exhibition against the Phillies at the IronPigs' Coca-Cola Park at 2:05 on Sunday, March 30. It is rare for the Phillies to play their minor league affiliates these days, and this is a great way to open the new park and to see the Phillies take on their top farm team. The game will be broadcast on the CW Philly.

In other Ironpigs news, a couple of weeks ago they had to rename their mascot from "PorkChop" to "Ferrous" (a name relating to iron), because "Porkchop" is a duragatory term used towards Asian and Portugese People. The fact that we have to change such an adorable name, one thought up by a five-year-old none the less, to be slightly more politically correct, just shows the times we live in.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Phillies Introduce Chad Durbin... and Geoff Jenkins

The Phillies made Chad Durbin official today, and Geoff Jenkins was announced as a free-agent signing as well. Two years, $13 Million for Jenkins- a bit more than I would have allocated for a guy who's not even going to be an everyday outfielder. Instead of that, he will probably share his time with Jayson Werth. Durbin's deal is one year, $900,000

Update From Pat Gillick

Last night, according to the Phillies' official site, Gillick confirmed interest in Geoff Jenkins, but said that the team is no longer pursuing Mike Cameron or Kyle Lohse. No official word on the reported signing of Chad Durbin.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Another Durbin?

According to mlbtraderumors.com, the Phillies have added Chad Durbin to their pitching staff, signing the Free Agent second-rate. This hasn't been made official yet by the Phillies, or their site.

I hope he isn't the fifth guy in the rotation, because frankly, I'm not wild about another Durbin.

Projected 2008 Roster, 3rd Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kris Benson*
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Ryan Madson
MRP Fabrio Castro
MRP Clay Condrey
RP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Mike Cameron*
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

  • Pat Gillick raised the possibility of trading prospects for pitching a couple weeks back. This could bring Mike Mussina or another older pitcher to the Phillies.
  • If Mike Cameron isn't signed, Geoff Jenkins
  • It's unlikely that Adam Eaton will start the year in the rotation, as he is still rehabbing his arm. When he is back to full strength he will hopefully and probably pitch a lot better than he did in 2007. The Phillies will meanwhile try to obtain another pitcher to help fill his spot, many who are coming off injuries. Free-Agent Kris Benson is the front-runner, but an offer has reportedly been made to Kyle Lohse, who would be a better option . Fabrio Castro and J.D. Durbin seem to be the front-runners for replacing Eaton if a new player doesn't, or taking over if a starter goes down. Rule 5 draft-pick Travis Blackley is also an option. In general, at this point, it looks like the more probable alternative is looking at a bunch of guys during Spring Training and hoping that one of them looks good enough to enter the rotation.
  • If Eaton goes to the minors, or to the disabled list, a reliever will probably come up to take his place on the roster (not in the rotation).
  • The Phillies have a very large amount of pitching talent down in the minors, and it's probable that with or without an injury, some new faces will show up in the bullpen. It's anyone's guess who that will be.
  • The bullpen looks to be a bit dicey, as the Phillies have a lot of prospects and journeymen lined up to vie for a spot in the bullpen, and besides closer Brad Lidge, Set-Up man Tom Gordon, and J.C Romero, talent in the pen is sparse.
  • It's not probable that Kris Benson will join the team, but there is still a good chance that he will. The Phillies are hoping for support in the outfield as well as at third.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Power Rankings- Week of 12/17

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers- The signing of Hideki Kuroda will just make the best team in the league even better.
2 (2) Rockies- LaTroy Hawkins' signing with the Yankees weakens the bullpen, but if the Rockies bullpen continues to play like they did in September and October, they'll have little to worry about.
3 (3) Phillies- Pat Gillick is apparently hibernating this winter. By the time he wakes up for spring, the Fightins could be unimproved from 2007, and drop a few places here. Hopefully, he'll wake up and make a deal for Mike Cameron or Geoff Jenkins, and/or a worthwhile pitcher.
4 (5) Padres- Added now former Phillie Tadahito Iguchi, and Jim Edmonds.
5 (7) Diamondbacks- Jose Valverde is gone, but the addition of the 2007 AL All-Star Starter Dan Haren pulls the Diamondbacks into the top 5.
6 (4) Mets
7 (6) Braves
8 (10) Cubs- The big signing of Kosuke Fukudome pushes the Cubs to the top of the NL Central, just ahead of the Brewers.
9 (8) Brewers- The Brewers just signed closer Eric Gagne to a 1 year, $10 Million deal (I guess even I had underestimated his market value. They're gambling that Gagne will bounce back after a surprisingly bad run as the set-up man for the Red Sox, and now he's been mentioned in the Mitchell Report.
10 (9) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros- Two days after trading Miguel Tejada, Ed Wade wakes up from him shame-nap to find Tejada mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Ineffectual, maybe, but doesn't this make you wonder if Ed Wade was the one who was cursed, not the Phillies?
12 (14) Giants- Aaron Rowand finds a new home there. Maybe his influence will be a little bit better than that which Barry Bonds had, but I don't think he was worth the money considering that the Giants aren't going to be making any championship runs any time soon, and he cost them a lot.
13 (12) Nationals
14 (15) Reds
15 (16) Pirates
17 (unranked)- Sacramento RiverCats
18 (unranked)- Oregon State Beavers
19 (13) Marlins- After trading away Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are now so incredibly bad that they are now ranked 18th... despite the fact that there are only 16 teams in the National League. When your highest paid player is Kevin Gregg, you either have Jesus himself negotiating your contracts, or your just plain suck.


American League

1) Red Sox- Johan Santana could still be on the way, although he's reportedly going to want around $140 Million for 7 years. Imagine Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield as your starting rotation, and then realize you are not dreaming or watching the all-star game, that this could soon be a reality. Sox are #1 by leaps and bounds. Conspiracy theorists are going crazy over how the Sox are not mentioned in the report, given that George Mitchell is on the Sox board of directors.
2) Yankees- Adding LaTroy Hawkins to an otherwise weak bullpen (especially given the fact that this is the Yankees) was a good move. They're also talking with Santana now.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5 (6) Tigers
6 (5) Mariners
7) Blue Jays- Recently added SS David Eckstein
8) Athletics- Dealing Dan Haren definetely has an effect on the teams' potency, but they don't drop them too far into the land of non-contender AL teams. Perhaps the possible addition of Barry Bonds could end up being a suprise blessing for the A's.
9) Twins- If they lose Santana they will drop, but for now the Twins will stay put.
10) White Sox
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Trading Miguel Tejada was a good move, sacrificing a good current player for a brighter future. Fortunately for them, they'd have to lose a lot more than him to drop to the cellar of the American League where the Rays and Royals are stuck.
13) Rays
14) Royals

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Interest in Jenkins Confirmed

There have been rumors of the Phillies having interest in Geoff Jenkins, and an article about that interest has been put on the Phillies Website. Jenkins would be the replacement for Aaron Rowand, and would hopefully bring experience to the team and some power back to the outfield. Jenkins is not a Free Agent, so a trade would have to be made. The Padres recently cut off ties with Mike Cameron, but acquired Jim Edmonds from the Cardinals late last night.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Rowand Gone

Aaron Rowand signed a $60 Million, 5 year deal with the Giants. Why the Giants spent that much over 5 years- a period during which they are very unlikely to contend- is beyond me. It's too bad that we lost him, but hopefully this will be an opportunity for Pat Gillick to get off his bum and use the money elsewhere.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Mike Mussina

According to Bob Matthews of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, the Phillies have mild interest in the Yankees' Mike Mussina. Currently, the Yankees depth chart of starting pictching is looking as follows:

  1. Chien Ming Wang
  2. Andy Pettite
  3. Phillip Hughes
  4. Joba Chamberlain
  5. Mike Mussina
  6. Ian Kennedy

There are a lot of things in play here. The Yanks could possibly go to a six-man rotation, in order to give their youngsters work as well as their experienced pitchers. Johan Santana ending up in New York is still slightly possible, but unlikely. It's also possible that Joba Chamberlain could remain in the bullpen (which is probably the weakest spot on the Yankees team), but at this point it seems more likely that he'll start. If the Phillies can put together a good deal for Mussina, an area native, the Yankees may be willing to deal.

And for your reading pleasure, I've offered some possible ideas for trades that could bring Mussina here (I didn't really explore possible minor league players up for trade, as that sort of a deal would be very hard to predict):

  • Shane Victorino for Mike Mussina and Shelley Duncan
  • Adam Eaton for Melky Cabrera and Mike Mussina
  • Adam Eaton and Jayson Werth for Mike Mussina and Bobby Abreu
  • Prospects for Mussina
  • Adam Eaton for Mike Mussina and Kyle Farnsworth
  • Pat Burrell for Johnny Damon and Mike Mussina
  • Pat Burrell and Prospects for Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina

Here are the team needs:

The Phillies could use Mussina in the back of the rotation if Eaton is out or if someone else goes down, and could also use another right-fielder, center-fielder, or third baseman. The Yankees could offer Melky Cabrera in a deal, or even gool ol' Bobby Abreu if the Phillies include fielders such as Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino, or the rehabbing Adam Eaton.

The Yankees, as if they needed anything, probably wouldn't mind trading one of their older players (similar to Mussina) for young or rehabbing fielders or relievers, as they have enough depth to gamble on those guys. If the Yankees lose an outfielder, Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth may look attractive to them. Any of the many young pitchers the Phillies have could be added on to a trade. Beyond this, I'd never rule out Pat Burrell, despite his no-trade clause, due to the fact that the Yankees have the money to pay him, and it's unlikely Burrell would be completely against being traded to the Yankees.

Both teams could use help in the bullpen, so pitching prospects may play a key role in possible trade talks. Hopefully something with pan out.

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Why Gillick Must Be Finalizing a Deal for Johan Santana

Pat Gillick is the one of the most unpredictable general managers out there. After denying any interest in Mike Lowell, he nearly signs him to a huge contract close to $50 Million. Now, he hasn't signed any free agents since J.C. Romero, while the Phillies still have a very weak rotation, bullpen, and weak spots in the lineup at third base and in the outfield. Meanwhile, it seems that everyone who seemed to have interest in Johan Santana just dropped it. The Red Sox and Yankees opted out. No acquisitions for the Phillies, no apparent interest by any team anymore in Santana, and a very secretive, unpredictable general manager at the helm.

One can come to no other conclusion than that the Phillies should announce that they are trading Kyle Kendrick, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, and Prospects for Santana...


Okay, I am completely kidding here, but it is a wonder why Pat Gillick denied interest in a Third Baseman, yet almost went ahead and spent most of the team's remaining budget on Lowell. I personally hope that Gillick is keeping his motives secret, and that he is planning some big deals, because last I checked, our bullpen is even worse than last year at the moment, we have a severe lack in seasoned veterans that can lead the team, and our starting rotation is just waiting to be devastated with an injury.

Gillick said he did not want to "trade for the sake of trading", but c'mon Pat! Don't forget to do something before all the good deals have washed up.

Phillies Out on Kuroda

The Phillies have dropped their pursuit of Hideki Kuroda, who it seems will only play for a west coast team. The Dodgers and Mariners are the front-runners. However, do not despair. The Phillies acquired pitchers Travis Blackley and Lincoln Holdzkom in the Rule 5 draft, and they hope Blackley may be able to vie for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Winter Meeting Update 1

  • Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis will be traded to the Tigers by the Marlins in exchange for 6 prospects, including Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.
  • The Royals are making moves: They've already signed Jose Guillen, and now Andruw Jones and Hideki Kuroda could be on their way to KC as well.
  • The Mariners recently offered Kuroda a 4-year, $45 Million dollar contract.
  • The Red Sox are currently the front-runners in acquiring Johan Santana from the Twins. Jacoby Ellsbury would likely be included in a trade for Santana.
  • According to MLBtraderumors.com, Ryan Howard and the Phillies will soon be sitting down to try to hammer out a long term deal. Howard is arbitration eligible.
  • The Phillies are reportedly NOT interested in Jon Lieber.
  • According to delawareonline, Pat Gillick said he'd be willing to trade one or two prospects for pitching. Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Josh Outman, and Adrian Cardenas are named as possibilities.
  • Also according to delawareonline, Charlie Manuel has concerns about the health of Bartolo Colon, and thus Kris Benson is on the top of the Phillies list when it comes to pitchers recovering from arm injuries.
  • delawareonline also says that the Mets are most interested in Livan Hernandez when it comes to pitchers. Hernandez is near the top of the Phillies list.
  • The Phillies are currently trying to work out a deal with Tadahito Iguchi that would move him to Third Base, solving one of the Phillies' major gaps in the lineup. However, it would require Iguchi getting a waiver from the commissioner's office, as he was previously released by the Phillies.
  • In an Interview with MLB.com, Pat Gillick discussed the Phillies' goals for the meetings. He said that the Phillies are: looking for a backup or "late-inning replacement" outfielder to replace Michael Bourn, keeping Aaron Rowand and Hideki Kuroda on the radar but are not close to siging him yet, and not in a rush to trade just for the sake of making trades.
  • The Blue Jays reportedly do not want to trade A.J. Burnett. He was on the back-end of possible pitchers for the Phillies to add earlier in the off-season

Monday, December 3, 2007

Power Rankings- Week of 12/3

Here are my current, simple, power rankings for the 2008 season, based on my outlook for it now. Let me inform you now of one thing: Unlike normal reporters, I will NEVER pull any punches about my expectations for the Phillies. Whether I think they're more likely to lose or to win, I'm going to be honest. I hope to provide an honest criticism so when I do predict good things for the Phillies, I can be taken seriously. On that note, just because my prediction goes one way doesn't necessarily say I don't believe in them, nor does it mean you won't hear me yelling "The Phillies are going all the way this year!"

I will be focusing more on the National League, but I will rank the American League teams as well. I'll be ranking teams by league to give a larger picture than if I sorted by division, but I will keep the leagues separate, since it's extremely difficult to compare teams from the two different leagues. These rankings will be updated every week or so, and may change without anything happening, but because I don't do this for a living and sometimes overlook information. Enjoy...


National League:

1) Dodgers- They are already a skilled squad to begin with, but with Joe Torre as manager, possibly acting as a talent magnet, and Andruw Jones or Aaron Rowand on the way, things will just get better for the Dodgers.
2) Rockies- Sorry Phillies fans- the Rockies streak was not a fluke. The question is whether or not it will carry over. Still, whether hot or cold, you can not deny the plethora of talent the Rockies have.
3) Phillies- The Phillies could be #1 or down at the bottom; the question is if the Phillies of September 2007 show up, or the Phillies of the previous 10 years show up. If the young Phillies are really ready to play with the big boys, and the pitching staff is up to par, the Phillies will dominate the NL East and the National League as a whole.
4) Mets- The Phillies knocked the Mets to the ground with their four-game sweep in August, and their three-game sweep in September threw the Mets off the cliff. What happened to the Mets was more devastating than many people may imagine, and I have my doubts as to if the Mets will be able to control even just their division after the end of the 2007 season.
5) Padres- The Padres have been very good for a while now, but have had a lot of trouble getting to the top. Expect them to have a similar season to last year, but have more trouble with the strong Western division.
6) Braves- Tom Glavine in, Andruw Jones out. The Braves had a strong finish to an otherwise surprisingly sub-par 2007 season. Expect their strong play to carry over into '08 and expect for them to make a much stronger run at a division title.
7) Diamondbacks- Improvements need to made if they want to stay atop the NL, as many of the other top teams have gotten better. My guess is they won't be made on a large enough scale to keep the D-Backs at the top.
8) Brewers- With Jason Kendall joining the team from Chicago, and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder posed for another stellar season, the Brew Crew should vault themselves to the top of the central division.
9) Cardinals- The Cardinals 9-game losing streak in September cancelled out the strong push they were making. If they can shake that off they can be a front-runner in the Central division.
10) Cubs- The Cubs are looking similar to last year, but the Cardinals and Brewers should improve, making the 2007 NL Central Champion Cubs no longer the front-runner in that division.
11) Astros- Ed Wade's reputation here isn't too good, but he's making good moves out in Houston. If Aaron Rowand or another big name ends up there the Astros could improve a lot. Biggio is gone, so if Wade doesn't make any big acquisitions the Astros will have trouble being a contender.
12) Nationals- The Nationals showed the ability to nip at the heels of the Phillies and Mets towards the end of the 2007 season, and if this carries over the Nationals, who have a lot of potential, could be a lot better next season.
13) Marlins- With Miguel Cabrera likely on the way out, the Marlins should be even worse than last year. However, even more so than the Nationals, the Marlins really played well against the Mets and other top teams towards the end of the season.
14) Giants- Bonds is gone, but with or without him the Giants will struggle to stay afloat next year in the incredible NL West
15) Reds- There are rumors of a possible return of Griffey to Seattle, but nonetheless the Reds are pretty bad to start with.
16) Pirates- I almost forgot to write something here. Umm... Isn't Jeff Garcia playing for them now... crap that's football.


American League

1) Red Sox- The Red Sox have some great young players in Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, and the rest of their lineup, and their pitching staff- with Johan Santana possibly on the way- is absolutely ridiculous. My early, early pick for 2008 World Series Champions. A return to the postseason is almost certain.
2) Yankees- They showed in the beginning of the 2007 season that talent isn't enough to be dominant, and I expect the Yankees to go into a bit of a rebuilding year- which for the Yankees is essentially dropping them from being insanely stacked to being really stacked. Despite their issues, they're still the Yankees. Unless the Red Sox collapse or fall behind the Yankees, or there is a real challenge in the wild card race (an unlikely scenario), expect the Yankees to be... well... the Yankees. I think they will perform better than many think next season.
3) Angels- An already incredible team, with Jon Garland and Torii Hunter added might actually now have a chance at outplaying the Sox or Yankees. Their only competition in the west is the Mariners, but the competition is slight.
4) Indians- The last of the four really incredible teams, we saw in the ALCS how they can play in the big games, and in a weak AL Central division expect them to thrive.
5) Mariners- There are rumors that Hideki Kuroda and/or Ken Griffey Jr. could end up on this team. They had a good 2007 season, and in 2008 they could dominate the Angels' rear view mirror, or try to hopelessly chase towards the seemingly non-existent (even at this point) (in my opinion) AL wild-card race. Came within 6 games of it last year.
6) Tigers- Finished equal with the Mariners in the wild card, but that's much easier to do when you're in the AL Central. Come to think of it, the central division in both of the leagues are pretty weak.
7) Blue Jays- They were a far cry from a contender in 2007, and play in an extremely tough-to-win division, but if things go haywire in 2008 as they did in the NL in 2007 maybe, just maybe the Blue Jays can pounce.
8) Athletics- Dan Haren might be traded. From here down, none of the American League teams mentioned have a sufficiently legitimate chance at being contenders. That's the American league for you...
9) Twins- If they say farewell to Johan Santana, it's farewell to their contender dreams as well. Santana aside, it's unlikely the Twins will make a run at the playoffs.
10) White Sox- A shadow of their former selves, don't expect the White Sox to go anywhere in 2008. Especially after balking on Torii Hunter. Shouldn't have let Rowand go...
11) Rangers- With a pitching staff that has more holes than Swiss cheese, stick to the Rangers than play hockey.
12) Orioles- Melvin Mora may be on his way out, as he wants to play for a contender and is willing to waive his no-trade clause. There was a time when teams besides the Sox and Yanks in the AL East got to be in the drivers seat, but that won't be happening this year.
13) Rays- The Devils Rays- I mean, Rays of sunshine, have gotten a new name and logo that makes them look like a Single-A Team. Gee, how fitting...
14) Royals- Hello Jose Guillen, hello the only exciting thing that has or will happen for the Royals in years. Remember when they led their division? Uh huh, neither do I.

Player Updates

Aaron Rowand: The Phillies offered him arbitration today, a small step towards keeping him, and a good one, as it assures the Phillies draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. He currently wants 5 years, $10-$12 million a season. The Dodgers were the top suitor, but an MLB.com report suggests that the Dodgers prefer Andruw Jones. After losing out on Torii Hunter, the White Sox showed interest, but they don't want to pay that much money. The Yankees might consider it if they traded Melky Cabrera.


Hideki Kuroda: Still a possibiliy, but he has said he wants to play on the West Coast. The Dodgers look like the best suitor here, although the Mariners and other teams have shown interest. Still, we still have an okay chance, especially if Rowand isn't signed.

Jon Lieber: The Phillies have shown interest along with the Astros.

Kyle Lohse: With the money he'll probably be looking for its unlikely he will return.

Melvin Mora: If Rowand is not signed, the Phillies may trade for the Orioles' Mora, who would waive his no-trade clause if he went to a winning team (interesting how we're on this end of this situation now after so many years of players like Scott Rolen and J.D. Drew leaving for a winning team). His contract is a hefty $8 million, so the Phillies would probably have to whiff on Rowand, Kuroda, and any other big names before they'd even consider trading for him. MLBtraderumors.com denies this interest, but anything can happen with Pat Gillick.

MLBtraderumors.com also reports that the Phillies have interest Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers, Livan Hernandez, Mark Prior, Shawn Chacon, Joe Kennedy, Brian Fuentes, and A.J. Burnett.



And Some bygones...

Troy Percival: Devil Rays, 2 Years, $8 million

Randy Wolf: Padres, $ 4 million

Mike Lowell: After denying interest in him, the Phillies made an offer that was barely beaten at the last second by the Red Sox. Let this serve as an example that Pat Gillick is very unpredictable.




My Advice: Sign Aaron Rowand unless a good offer is accepted by Kuroda, but even in that case I'd try to sign Rowand as well. A premier pitcher and veteran leader are both absolute necessities, and well worth the investment.

New... Well... Old Jersey


The Phillies new alternate jersey isn't acutally new persay; it's just a 1948 throwback jersey, which seems to oddly resemble the current jersey, save the pinstripes. It will be worn on all home day games. I was hoping for something more creative, but it's good to have an alternate jersey nonetheless.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

New Alternate Jersey to be Unveiled Today

At 12:00PM, in less than two hours, the Phillies will be unveiling their new home alternate Jersey, the first alternate jersey they have had in a long time (if ever). New jerseys can bring more money, through merchandise sales, and many teams have played well in new jerseys. creating alternate jerseys is essentially an art in it's own respect, and many different styles have been used...



Many just change the color of another jersey...

New York Mets

Houston Astros




...but some choose to create a new alternate team logo, sometimes more colorful and creative than the official team logo...






Minnesota Wild




Nashville Predators


Boston Bruins





Edmonton Oilers (This one has many hidden features, such as the five heads of the gear representing the five Stanley Cups the team has won)




New York Rangers


...while some bring back old-school logos...


Buffalo Sabres


Toronto Maple Leafs

...or sometimes teams might stick with an all out throwback look...

Philadelphia Eagles (feel free to puke)



Washington Capitals

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Jimmy Rollins Wins MVP!!!

Totally deserving here. Rollins this year, as Howard did in 2006, proves that the Phillies have a strong core of truly valuable players that could lead them to a championship in 2008. Holliday almost had the triple crown (Prince Fielder being the spoiler in the Home Run category), but Rollins was more... well... valuable. Extra base hits, the stolen bases, hits, home runs- Rollins had the works. Notice how the Phillies also had three guys in the top 10, the only team to have multiple guys there.

The voting:
Jimmy Rollins- 353 Votes (16 1st Place Votes)
Matt Holliday- 336 (11)
Prince Fielder- 284 (5)
David Wright- 182
Ryan Howard- 112
Chipper Jones- 107
Jake Peavy-97
Chase Utley-89
Albert Pujols- 50
Hanley Ramirez- 49
...
Aaron Rowand- 3

Phillies Fall Just Short of Signing Mike Lowell

After denying interest in signing any big name third-basemen, the Phillies reportedly made a 4-year, $50 Million dollar offer to Lowell, who wanted a four year deal, while the Red Sox had only offered him 3 years, $36 Million. However, after the Red Sox upped their offer to $37.5 Million, Lowell signed with the Sox.

I am suprised the Phillies went for a third baseman, or any position player, or a 4-year offer to any free agent, but Pat Gillick has been unpredictable. So close, yet so far- but this does bring around the possibility again of signing Aaron Rowand

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Off-Season Schedule

Can't Wait for the 2008 Season? Here's a rundown of the important dates for this off-season and the beginning of the 2008 Season...


Nov. 20, 2007: National League MVP Announced
Nov. 20, 2007: Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues
Nov. 28, 2007: Phillies Unveil new Home Alternate Jersey!

Dec. 1, 2007: Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation
Dec. 3-6, 2007: Winter Meetings, Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 6, 2007: Major League Rule 5 Draft
Dec. 7, 2007: Player deadline to accept salary arbitration
Dec. 12, 2007: Last date to tender contracts
Feb. 14, 2008: Spring Training Begins- first workout for pitchers & catchers
Feb. 19, 2008: First workout for infielders and outfielders
Feb. 26, 2008: Exhibition game vs. Florida State University
Feb. 27, 2008: Phillies' First Spring-Training game, at home against the Reds
Mar 25-26, 2008: Two Game MLB season opener in Japan, Red Sox vs. Athletics
Mar. 28-29, 2008: Phillies 2-Game Preseason Series, at home against the Blue Jays
Mar. 31, 2008: Phillies' Opening Day, at home against the Nationals

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Philly Sports' Curse Reversed?

If you were to mention the Phillies to anyone in Philadelphia, you would probably hear a tirade about how disappointing the Phillies were in the Playoffs. True, they didn't win a championship or a game. However, the Phillies did manage to do one thing: Put a major crack in the "Curse of Billy Penn" that has haunted Philadelphia sports since the construction of One Liberty Place over the statue of William Penn above city hall. And they did it "a la bambino"...

It was the night of August 30th, and the Mets were playing the Phillies, who were hoping for an unthinkable four-game sweep of the Mets. It was the bottom of the 9th inning, the Phillies down 10-9 after a disastrous 8th Inning. Billy Wagner, the overpowering, former Phillies' closer who left for more money was pitching. After a single, Jayson Werth, armed with scouting reports from his teammates on Wagner, stole two bases consecutively, ending up at third. With one out, Tadihito Iguchi slapped a single to score Werth. Iguchi then stole second himself, setting up an intentional walk to Jimmy Rollins and then Chase Utley came to the plate...

This unthinkable four-game sweep of the best team in the National League was a segway into an incredible September. The Phillies won their last eight games against the Mets, and proved all their critics wrong by winning the divison. Many would consider this was just dumb luck, as the Mets collapsed on their own. This is just plain incorrect.

The Phillies were instrumental in the Mets downfall. They hit the Mets hard on their first punch (the four-game August Sweep) setting themselves up to knock the Mets out on the second blow (September three-game sweep). Need proof?

  • Mets Before Four-Game Sweep: 73-59
  • Mets between four- and three-game sweeps: 10-3
  • Mets after three-game sweep: 5-12

The Phillies' August 30th victory was a far cry from a season-changing game, but the Red Sox broke their curse in a similar way. In game 4 of the ALCS, with their backs against the wall in the series, Dave Roberts' "Steal Heard Round the World"- when he stole a base by inches off Mariano Rivera after 3 near-pickoffs- put him in scoring position, setting up a Red Sox walk-off win. Despite the three unlikely wins they needed to get to win that series, and the fact that it wasn't even the world series, Roberts' steal is what many considered to be the event that broke the "Curse of the Bambino".

The Phillies may not have won a championship, and thus haven't completely broken Philly's curse, but there are undeniable similarities to the Red Sox in 2004. Besides, winning your division in baseball (especially if you would have won it if the pre-1995 divisions were in place) is much bigger than doing so in any other sport.

Finally, a reiteration from yesterday's entry: If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

If you still need proof to subdue your doubts, consider the injuries the Phillies had to deal with this season...

  • Chase Utley: Out 7/26-8/27
  • Ryan Howard: Out 5/9-5/25 & 7/8-7/13
  • Shane Victorino: Out 7/30-8/22 & 9/1-9/7
  • Jayson Werth: 6/28-8/1
  • Cole Hamels: 8/16-9/18
  • Freddy Garcia: 6/8-Present
  • John Lieber: 6/20-Present
  • Brett Myers: 5/23-7-28
  • Tom Gordon: 5/1-7/17
  • Ryan Madson: 7/29-Present

Still think Philadelphia Sports are reeling from the "Curse of Billy Penn"? To tell you the truth, you wouldn't be a true Philadelphia sports fan if you ever did.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Could an Injury Cripple the Phillies in 2008?

Here's the injury scenarios for position players:

  • Ryan Howard: Greg Dobbs would likely become the everyday 1st Baseman, leaving Wes Helms to play Third Base. Helms and Pete LaForest can also play 1st Base.
  • Chase Utley: Eric Bruntlett would become the everyday 2nd Baseman.
  • Jimmy Rollins: Bruntlett would become the everyday Shortstop.
  • Wes Helms: Greg Dobbs would become the sole starting Third Baseman.
  • Greg Dobbs: Helms would play Third, but since Dobbs can play a lot of positions, the Phillies would have a bit of a depth problem if another starter went down.
  • Pat Burrell: Jayson Werth moves to left, Shane Victorino to Center, and Chris Roberson plays right. It should be noted that Greg Dobbs can play Left Field.
  • Shane Victorino: Jayson Werth plays center, Roberson plays right, and Burrell plays left.
  • Jayson Werth: Roberson would become the everyday Right Fielder. Dobbs is also availalble.
  • Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, or Pete LaForest: If one of these guys go down, there are two of them left. However, if Ruiz went down for an extended period of time, the Phillies might search for a better catcher to be the everyday starter.
  • Chris Roberson or Eric Bruntlett: Both these guys are currently the only backups at two vital positions (LF/RF for Roberson, 2nd/SS for Bruntlett). Multiple backups may be needed to replace either of these guys, which could hurt the roster. It's anyone's guess who that would be. One possibility for outfield is T.J. Bohn, who was on the 40-man roster in 2007 but never played for the Phillies.

Now for the key pitchers. It should be noted that since the pitching rotation is unclear beyond Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, and probably Brett Myers, I am going to assume that a fifth starter will come around, be it most likely a Free Agent, or maybe Adam Eaton, J.D. Durbin, or a Prospect. I am going to call them "Pitcher X".

  • Cole Hamels: The unusual amount of pitching injuries and other big changes last year required major changes in the rotation. The only pitcher that would be alarming (in my mind) to lose is Cole Hamels. If he goes down for an extended period of time, the Phillies may try to trade for a pitcher (like they did with Lohse last year), or they might use Adam Eaton (if he hasn't been traded), J.D. Durbin, or a minor-league prospect (they got lucky last year in this exact situation with Kendrick. Some possible prospects are Josh Outman, J.A. Happ, John Ennis.
  • Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, or "Pitcher X": The same goes here as for Hamels, except it's less likely the Phillies will go outside the organization for a replacement.
  • Tom Gordon or J.C. Romero: While we aren't sure what the 2008 bullpen will look like, we can assume the loss of either of these guys would be pretty substantial. No special changes would really need to be made, but the Phillies may try to obtain an additional reliever from outside the organization. If the Phillies find themselves with six really able-bodied starters, Brett Myers may move back to the pen- but this could happen even if an injury didn't occur.
  • Brad Lidge: Romero and/or Gordon would probably take on the closing role, and the same thing may happen here with Myers as mentioned above.

Now, there's always the possibility of a doomsday scenario, where multiple (2, 3 or even more!)players go down, but that hasn't happened since 2007- Oh wait, that was last year, wasn't it? Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley- all of them vital (or at least expected to be vital) players on the team- went down for a while.

The losses of just a couple of these players would have been disasterous, let alone all eight of them over the course of the season, let alone for a team that's season was down the drain, let alone for the Phillies, and yet somehow a bunch of virtual nobodies- Geoff Geary, Kyle Kendrick, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, Jayson Werth- came on and did a spectacular job, leaving the virtually injury-free (who's that Freddy Garcia Guy?) Phillies poised to make a September run, one that ended up pulling them to the playoffs.

Final Analysis: The only thing to be worried about is making sure that our bullpen doesn't look like it's reeling from injuries when there actually aren't any injuries, which is the case right now. The Phillies' proved in 2007 that their organization has depth far beyond the 25-man roster they started with.

If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Liber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Some News & Updates


  • Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox is the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year, winning in a landslide with 132 points, besting Damon Young (Devil Rays) who had 56. Daisuke Matsuzaka only got 12 points putting him in fourth.
  • Ryan Braun won an extremely close race in the NL Rookie of the Year race with 128 points over Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies who had 126 votes. Coming in a very distant third is Hunter Pence (Astros) who had 15. The Phillies' own Kyle Kendrick came in fifth with 7 votes. Considering where the Phillies would be without his stellar performance coming out of AA, I'm suprised Kendrick did this poorly- although he was the only candidate other than Braun and Tulowitzki to get a second-place vote.
  • The Devil Rays unveiled their new logo and "new" team name. Now the name "Rays" refers to rays of sunlight and not marine animals. Their new logo looks like it's that of a Single-A team. How fitting...
  • As of today, Free Agents can negotiate with any team.
  • The AL Cy Young will be announced today. Josh Beckett, Chien-Ming Wang, and C.C. Sabathia are the front-runners. Beckett will almost certainly win.
  • Jorge Posada is reportedly being signed by the Yankees to a 4 Year, $52 Million contract.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Projected 2008 Roster, 2nd Edition

SP Cole Hamels
SP Hideki Kuroda*
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
RP Tom Gordon
RP J.C. Romero
RP Ryan Madson
RP J.D. Durbin
RP Adam Eaton
RP Jeremy Affeldt*
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
SS Eric Bruntlett
LF Pat Burrell
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF Chris Roberson
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
C Pete LaForest

Notes:

  • In case you didn't know, J.C. Romero has been signed to a 3 year, $12 Million dollar contract with a $4.75 Million dollar option.
  • Jeremy Affeldt is a placeholder- if he’s not there, I’m guessing another free-agent pitcher will be.
  • Expect Chris Roberson and/or Pete LaForest to be the first to go in the likely event that the Phillies acquire somebody in a trade, add a prospect to the roster, add another pitcher, or add a more versatile utility player, etc. Roberson will not go unless an outfielder comes along- LaForest is more expendable.
  • Adam Eaton and/or J.D. Durbin will be the first pitchers to go (likely after LaForest or Roberson if a pitching prospect or free-agent pitcher gets added to the roster.
  • Adam Eaton is by far the most likely out of all these guys to get traded. Otherwise he may start but will more likely be sent to AAA or work out of the pen.
  • Hideki Kuroda is a placeholder of sorts, as I think one out of many different free-agent starting pitchers could be signed for the rotation.
  • In the likely event that one of the starters collapses, a prospect may find their way into the rotation, just like Kyle Kendrick did in 2007.
  • Brett Myers could still possibly remain in the bullpen if two starters are added to the roster, or if he bombs like he did in the beginning of 2007.
  • Players I don’t expect to see on this roster (less that 50% chance): Jeremy Affeldt, Hideki Koroda, and Pete LaForest.

Summary of Expected Off-Season Moves:

  • Acquire one (or two) relief pitchers
  • Acquire one (or two) starting pitcher
  • Note: two starters and a reliever could be acquired, allowing Brett Myers to stay in the bullpen

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Phillies Off-Season Preview: Position Players

It's safe to say that the Phillies lineup is going to be fine without any additions or re-signings this off-season. Barring any trades or any other unforeseen events, here is what the Phillies lineup would look like in 2008 if the Phillies did not sign or re-sign anybody this off-season (not shown in batting order)


1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms
C- Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Jayson Werth
RF- Shane Victorino

Bench:

Greg Dobbs (3B/1B/LF/RF) or Wes Helms (3B/1B)
Chris Roberson (LF/RF)
Pete LaForest (C/1B)
Chris Coste (C) or Carlos Ruiz (C)
Eric Bruntlett (2B/SS)

This lineup would certainly suffice. With Aaron Rowand gone there won't be as much depth and in this lineup and it's certainly less potent than last season , but given the improvements that should be made to pitching staff I'm not too worried. More importantly, Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse, and the loss of his influence might be a big problem for this young lineup. I also worry that as always with the Phillies, this lineup will be inconsistent and not able to perform game-after-game at the level needed to really be considered a championship contender.

Third Base has been considered a weak spot, as the offensive production from third base was nothing short of abysmal last season. However, Pat Gillick was quoted in the Daily News as saying he doesn't think anything but pitching will be addressed in the off-season...

"I don't know that [third base] is going to be addressed," Pat Gillick said as the annual general manager meetings got under way yesterday at the posh Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "We'll go with [Wes] Helms and [Greg] Dobbs. Because we're going to concentrate on pitching. If we go in any direction, we're going to concentrate on pitching... If we make a deal, it will be for pitching," the general manager said. "If we spend money, we'll spend it on pitching... If you improve your pitching, you don't have to have as much offense... You don't have to score as many runs if you don't let as many in."


This pretty much rules out the possible acquisition of any off-season improvements to the lineup. I agree fully with Gillick; this offense should be fine, despite the loss of Rowand. However, I wonder if the Phillies would have enough playoff experience as a team last year to be able to perform under playoff pressure in 2008, now having lost 2005 World Series Champions Tadihito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Freddy Garcia. Many of the seasoned veterans who were on the 2007 Phillies are now free-agents. This worries me a bit, but hopefully this issue can be adressed when Pat Gillick goes shopping for pitchers this off-season.

Huge Deal to Start the Off-Season

The Phillies traded RP Geoff Geary, OF Michael Bourn, and minor league 3rd Baseman Mike Costanzo to the Astros for RP/CP Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett.

I will be frank, my reaction to this trade is not that good- it's a bit of a risky one. Geary had a great end to the 2007 season (although otherwise was quite below par), and Bourn likely has a great future ahead of him. Lidge only converted on 19/27 save opportunities, posting 3.36 ERA, although his pitching improved near the end of the season. I really hope the Phillies saw something in Lidge that I'm missing, because 19/27 save attempts is maybe not what I'd look for in a closer specifically. That being said, he could also be a set-up man to Myers if the Phillies so wish. However, according to MLB.com, Lidge will be the closer for the Phillies.

I would have probably shopped a bit more before making this trade. I know I said the Phillies shouldn't automatically make Myers their closer, but replacing him this fast seems a bit extreme on the other end of the spectrum. I think, though, that the Phillies haven't set Lidge being the closer in stone yet either- he could end up working out of the pen with Myers staying as the closer. If we're lucky here, Lidge may put up stats like he was a few years ago. Or, he could continue to have a bad save percentage, and put up an ERA of over 4.

With this trade the outfield has lost depth, but the infield has gained some.

Now, the Starting Rotation is looking like this:
Hamels, Myers, ???, Kendrick, Moyer

??? Could be anyone from Mark Prior to Matt Clement to Hideki Kuroda.


Next Move: Re-Sign J.C. Romero, go after a free-agent starter, and go after another free-agent reliever

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Phillies Interested in Hideki Kuroda

Daily News Article: http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20071107_Phillies_looking_at_Japanese_pitching_star.html

"We'll just keep looking," Pat Gillick said during the second day at the annual general manager meetings at the palatial Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "There's nothing we could do about it during this period [when Boston held exclusive negotiating rights]. If he had gotten out there, it might have been a different story."


This would be a wise move for the Phillies, given the success of many Japanese players in the

My Question Featured on Phillies' Mailbag

Who do you see as the closer in 2008?-- Ben L., Cheltenham, Pa.
Unless the Phillies acquire Francisco Cordero or someone of that ilk, I'll stick with Brett Myers. The right-hander prefers closing, and the team has said publicly that they are planning to use Myers in that role.



http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071105&content_id=2292283&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi


Seems like Mandel's in agreement with me.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

2 Gold Gloves!

Congratulations to Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand on their 2007 Gold Glove Awards!

So Much for Schilling

From MLB.Com:

Curt Schilling and the Red Sox appear ready to announce a one-year deal with incentives to return him to Boston for one final season. ESPN.com reported on Tuesday that Schilling and the team have reached agreement on an $8 million base salary with an additional $2 million in incentives. The deal is pending a physical on the right-hander, who will turn 41 on Nov. 14.


After Writing farewell letters to his teammates just one week ago, it appears Curt Schilling has had a change of heart, and will in all likelihood will be returning to the Red Sox in 2008. This is tough news, as Schilling's experience would have been a huge boost to the Phillies.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Five Smart Moves the Pat Gillick can Make this Off-Season

1) Sign Seasoned Veterans to help lead the Youngsters
Aaron Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse in 2007, and he played a key role off the field in helping the Phillies make their playoff push. With him gone, the Phillies have significantly less experience in the clubhouse, and they need some more veterans to lead this young team. Curt Schilling would have been a great choice here if he had decided to test the market. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds may be two names too big for the Phillies, but they along with other veterans should be on the Phillies’ radar, and they should talk to these guys (in all seriousness) and try to find another guy that could have a positive effect in the clubhouse. A Third Basemen would be great, since that is a weak spot in the lineup at the moment.

2) Big-Name Middle-Relievers are a must
J.C. Romero, Troy Percival, Bob Wickman, LaTroy Hawkins… these are only some of the impressive middle-relievers who may be out on the market. The Phillies should sign at the least two skilled middle-relievers to supplement a bullpen that’s a huge weakness for the Phillies; and Jose Mesa won’t cut it. It would be an unthinkable mistake for the Phillies to go into 2008 with essentially the same bullpen they had in 2007, because as you may remember, it made Adam Eaton look like Josh Beckett.

3) Sign Eric Gagne
Am I mad? Eric Gagne, who posted a 6.75 ERA in Boston? The truth is, Eric Gagne is one of the most overrated relievers in baseball... because he can’t pitch as a middle reliever, he’s a closer, and a damn good one. The fact is that he’s the best kept secret on the free-agent market this year.
It leaves me dumbfounded that I even have to say this about the 2003 Cy Young Winner. If you look at Eric Gagne’s stats, his best numbers come in the 9th inning, when he’s given a save opportunity. Otherwise, he’s mediocre, often giving up twice as many runs and hits than when he’s pitching as a closer. Gagne would be a bit of a risk, especially given his bad run in Boston, but for what salary he’ll likely ask for, chances are he will be more than worth the money.
With him as the closer, Brett Myers could be placed pretty much anywhere- he could be the set-up man, a middle reliever, a long reliever, or a starter. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Pat Gillick will gamble on Gagne given the Phillies’ complacency with having Brett Myers as the closer in 2008.


4) Make Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and Jayson Werth available to trade for starting pitching.
Pat Burrell would definitely be on this list if he didn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. The bottom line here is that we have a lot of young guys out in the field, Michael Bourn is a top prospect in the organization, and everyone loves Victorino, but if we can get a third baseman or some more pitching, two areas of great need for the Phillies, these guys should be available for trade if a trade presents itself. I realize all three of these guys may have a very bright future, but if a good enough trade offer comes along, we might have to say goodbye to the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”.

5) Don’t be Stubborn with Brett Myers
A pitcher as versatile as Myers is a blessing to a Phillies team who had more holes in their pitching roster than a piece of Swiss cheese. They shouldn’t waste this blessing. They should do what they did last year- put him where need dictates. He’s a bit more effective as a closer than he was as a starter, but he can play a lot of different roles. Designating him as the closer now is premature given all the holes in the roster he could fill.


The same goes for all the Phillies pitchers. Who knows.... maybe Adam Eaton will be the next big middle reliever. Just look at what happened with Brett Myers...

2008 Starting Rotation Thoughts

The Phillies had quite a crazy 2007 when it came to starting pitching. Their rotation saw a lot of changes over the year…

· Brett Myers > Jon Lieber > J.D. Durbin > Kyle Lohse
· Freddy Garcia > Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer
· Adam Eaton > [Hole on The Playoff Roster Left by Shunned Eaton]
· Cole Hamels > J.D. Durbin > Cole Hamels
Also Featured: A.J. Happ, John Ennis, Fabrio Castro, Zach Segovia


Three of these guys are almost certainly going to be in the 2007 starting rotation.

· Cole Hamels
· Kyle Kendrick
· Jamie Moyer

However, that leaves two spots. The Phillies need someone to fill the back end of the rotation, and they really need a seasoned #2 pitcher if they want to be a contender. For the latter, there are three main possibilities:
1) Sign a free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer, and move Brett Myers to the rotation*
3) Risk it with Adam Eaton (NOT recommended)

*See 11/2 blog entry: “The Closer in ’08: Brett Myers?”


There Are Two Free-Agent Starters who I think could do a good job in the #2 Slot:

Curt Schilling: Schilling seems like the most likely free-agent signing for the Phillies at this point, and the Phillies are likely the top team on his list. He’s been a large part of the Phillies organization in the past, pitching 8 ½ seasons in Philadelphia including the 1993 World Series. Despite his stats ((9-8, 3.87 ERA) not being overly impressive, the leadership he would bring to the team, and to the pitching staff, would be extremely beneficial given the amount of young players the Phillies have. He’s only looking for one year, so signing Schilling would be a big step towards making the Phillies a real contender in 2008.


Kyle Lohse: Lohse was a smart acquisition last season, and played well, but he’s one of the best free-agent starters, and at a ripe age, so the Phillies will more than likely have to compete with quite a few other teams if they want to sign him, and they’d probably have to make a pretty good offer to him- I’d venture a guess at $7-10 Million. Schilling would be preferred over Lohse probably, although it’s always possible that the Phillies would end up signing both.


Now, for the fifth spot; there are a few main possibilities…

1) Sign another free-agent starter
2) Sign a free-agent closer and move Myers to the rotation (highly unlikely if the Phillies already have signed a free-agent starter)
3) Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin
4) Look to their prospects, filling the 5th spot in the rotation until they’re ready if they need a bit more time in the minors.

Here are two of the many possible free-agents that could fill this spot:

Matt Clement: Hasn’t played in a major-league game since June 26, 2006, due to shoulder problems. He was on the Red Sox roster since 2005. His record has hovered around .500 for most of his career (he was 5-5 in 2006 and 13-6 in 2005), generally posting an ERA of about 4.50. Clement would probably not be enough as the only addition to the pitching rotation, although it’s feasible that he ends up being the only addition to the rotation.

Livan Hernandez: 11-11 with a 4-93 ERA in 2007 for the Diamondbacks, I’d say he’s pretty much the same as Clement in terms of his value, and where he would go in the rotation, but keep in mind that Hernandez has played major-league ball in the past 16 Months, unlike Clement.




My Advice: Lohse would be great, but the Phillies shouldn’t risk a longer contract with him, but instead take the 1-year deal they’d get with Schilling. If possible I’d sign Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera if they are available, and move Myers to wherever need dictates, probably the rotation... I’d take Eric Gagne if I could get a good deal (less than about $3,500,000), Rivera if I could get him, and otherwise a starter. My rotation would probably end up being Hamels, Schilling, Kendrick, Moyer, and whatever fifth guy ended up working out.

Probable Phillies' Move: The Phillies will probably get Schilling or Lohse (more likely Schilling), and possibly (but I wouldn’t say likely) sign a starter like Clement. Their rotation may end up being Hamels, Schilling/Lohse, Kendrick, Moyer, and Free-Agent/Eaton/Prospect

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Saying Goodbye to Freddy Garcia

Remember Freddy Garcia? His removal from the pitching rotation back in June was a symbolic restarting point for the Phillies. Yet somehow, the impossibility of the Phillies turning a disaster around and making the playoffs happened. Thanks to Kyle Kendrick and Company, Freddy Garcia is not a scapegoat (as many would have expected), but instead a forgotten memory.

Yet he isn't worthless. He isn't another big-name player turned bad in Philadelphia. themselves. Garcia was plagued by shoulder soreness this season even before he left the rotation. His stuff was not what we had hoped because of it. Pat Gillick was smart enough to sign him only for a year in case something like this happened. Despite the pros of not having to pay him $8-10 million to play 2008, Freddy Garcia may be back with his old stuff next season. 2007 was a bad, injury plagued year for him. We've moved on, and he has too...

I'm just glad I can say "Happy trails" to him than "!%($ You, Freddy!" (something I'm sure you Eagles fans have already had to say once...)

Friday, November 2, 2007

The Closer in '08: Brett Myers?

Constantly the Phillies have said that Myers will be the closer in 2008, but this happening has never been taken as any sort of near certainty. We all know that there are plenty of Free Agent closers out there, and that there is also a need for Myers in the starting rotation. The fact is, we don’t know where Myers will be at his strongest. He could remain the closer, and the Phillies could spend their money elsewhere. Myers may even evolve into one of the best closers in baseball if we’re lucky. We could also move him back to the rotation and sign a new closer. Or, he could become a middle or long reliever.

His stats don’t give us that good of an idea of where he’s strongest:


  • In Brett Myers' career as a starter (2002-2006, 1st 3 games of 2007), he has put up these stats: 143 Games, 54-41, 868.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 306 BB, 708 SO, .329 OBP
  • In 2006 specifically, Myers put up these stats: 31 Games, 12-7, 198.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 189 SO, OBA .257
  • Myers began the 2007 season 0-2, allowing 16 runs in 15.1 innings of work over 3 starts.
  • On April 18th, due to Myers’ struggles, he was moved to the bullpen. He made his first start as a Middle Reliever/Set-Up Man. Over his 8 games (between 4/18 and 5/1) in this role, he put up impressive stats:
    0-0, 8.1 IP, 1 Run, 13 SO, 3 BB, OBA .324
  • On May 3rd, with closer Tom Gordon injured, Myers took over the closer role. He was out of the lineup
    due to injury from 5/23-7/28. He did okay (especially for a new closer) before the injury. After the injury shared he sometimes shared the closing role with Tom Gordon, and he had some rough games in his first couple weeks back, but settled down after that. Along with the rest of the team, he played well down the stretch. From May 3rd until the end of the regular season, Myers put up these stats: 5-5, 40 Games, 21/24 Saves, 45.0 IP, 16 Runs, 14 BB, 51 SO, 3.20 ERA, .210 OBA.


Myers has done slightly better out of the bullpen, which is why the Phillies want to keep him there. He’s a big guy that is developing a good fastball that would tire him out as a starter.
Right now, the Phillies have two holes in their starting rotation: the empty spot left by new free-agent Kyle Lohse, and Adam Eaton (I am not even kidding here). Now, the Phillies have prospects that could fill in one of the spots, and there’s always Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin. The Phillies are also going to look for starters.

Now, assuming that Pat Gillick is half as smart as I think he is, he will be able to adequately complete the starting rotation with or without Myers. So, Myers will probably only be removed as a closer if a better (or much better, depending on willing the Phillies are to move Myers) replacement is found. Many closers can also make good middle relievers- and it's often easy to tell which ones can- meaning the Phillies have some flexibility.


And for your reading pleasure, I conjured up a list of 5 candidates that could possibly replace Myers as the closer…

Eric Gagne: He had a tough run with Boston, but that doesn’t reflect on his skill as a closer: He was the 2003 Cy Young winner. After injury plagued 2005 and 2006 seasons, he played well in 2007 as the Rangers’ closer, but was traded to the Red Sox. In Boston, playing as a middle-reliever rather than a closer, he imploded, having a 6.75 ERA over 20 Games. The likely explanation is that Gagne specializes in closing, and can’t be an effective middle-reliever.

If would be a huge risk signing Gagne. It’s possible that his implosion hurt his skill as a closer- for this reason his market value has dropped from his $6,000,000 2007 salary. If he turns out to close like he did before his implosion, he would be a huge acquisition, and the Phillies would get a lot of bang for their buck. It’s also possible he would be another Freddy Garcia.

It’s not certain whether Pat Gillick will even look into Gagne. Gagne many not be the kind of player the Phillies would want to sign to take over for Myers. However, I think Gagne should definitely be looked into. Right now, according to the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have a mutual interest in him, so he may be gone before the Phillies really get a chance to consider him.

Troy Percival: Having just come out of three injury-plagued season, and retirement, the Phillies probably won’t go for Percival. However, while he’s a risk similar to Gagne, Percival came out of retirement and played his first MLB game back on June 29th, yet still managed to post a 1.80 ERA in 40.0 IP over 34 games in 2007. Not too shabby…

Mariano Rivera: Things have changed a lot here. It was thought by many (including me) that Rivera might leave the Yankees if Torre left. However, Rivera has applauded the hiring of Joe Girardi, and is saying he wants to retire in pinstripes. Also, the Yankees are planning to move Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, meaning they will probably re-sign Rivera. It doesn’t look like Rivera will really be testing the market, although it’s still possible. If he did, the Phillies would likely make him an offer.

Francisco Cordero: Closer for the Brewers in 2006. He was 2.98 ERA, 44/51 saves in 2007, similar to previous years. He’s been talked about by many in the media as a possible closer. He’s had some rough spots in the past few years, though.

Bob Wickman: Wickman is unlikely to re-sign with Arizona, his team at the end of 2007. He has had a lot of good and bad seasons, and has a lot of experience as a closer. His ERA has been around 3.5 recently, and he dropped his ERA a lot over the last two months of the 2007 season. He could play a role similar to Tom Gordon, as a set-up man, or replace Myers as closer, giving the Phillies options. He would probably be a better closer than Gordon, though. I’m not sure if the Phillies think he’s a good enough closer to be signed to replace Myers. However, everybody loves a 240 pound meatballing reliever…


My Choice: Gagne- If we can get him for a good price, we should take him. If he ends up pulling a Freddy Garcia, we can move Myers back and put someone new in the rotation. I think there's a better chance Gagne ends up having his old stuff, in which case we score big.

Probable Phillies' Choice: Nobody- The Phillies are to weary of their (and other Philly teams') past when it comes to big-name acquisitions to take a risk on any of these 5 hit-or-miss guys, or anybody other than Myers. They'll go for a couple starters, most likely Lohse and Schilling, although anybody could end up being signed.