Power Rankings- Week of 12/17

National League:

1 (1) Dodgers- The signing of Hideki Kuroda will just make the best team in the league even better.
2 (2) Rockies- LaTroy Hawkins' signing with the Yankees weakens the bullpen, but if the Rockies bullpen continues to play like they did in September and October, they'll have little to worry about.
3 (3) Phillies- Pat Gillick is apparently hibernating this winter. By the time he wakes up for spring, the Fightins could be unimproved from 2007, and drop a few places here. Hopefully, he'll wake up and make a deal for Mike Cameron or Geoff Jenkins, and/or a worthwhile pitcher.
4 (5) Padres- Added now former Phillie Tadahito Iguchi, and Jim Edmonds.
5 (7) Diamondbacks- Jose Valverde is gone, but the addition of the 2007 AL All-Star Starter Dan Haren pulls the Diamondbacks into the top 5.
6 (4) Mets
7 (6) Braves
8 (10) Cubs- The big signing of Kosuke Fukudome pushes the Cubs to the top of the NL Central, just ahead of the Brewers.
9 (8) Brewers- The Brewers just signed closer Eric Gagne to a 1 year, $10 Million deal (I guess even I had underestimated his market value. They're gambling that Gagne will bounce back after a surprisingly bad run as the set-up man for the Red Sox, and now he's been mentioned in the Mitchell Report.
10 (9) Cardinals
11 (11) Astros- Two days after trading Miguel Tejada, Ed Wade wakes up from him shame-nap to find Tejada mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Ineffectual, maybe, but doesn't this make you wonder if Ed Wade was the one who was cursed, not the Phillies?
12 (14) Giants- Aaron Rowand finds a new home there. Maybe his influence will be a little bit better than that which Barry Bonds had, but I don't think he was worth the money considering that the Giants aren't going to be making any championship runs any time soon, and he cost them a lot.
13 (12) Nationals
14 (15) Reds
15 (16) Pirates
17 (unranked)- Sacramento RiverCats
18 (unranked)- Oregon State Beavers
19 (13) Marlins- After trading away Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are now so incredibly bad that they are now ranked 18th... despite the fact that there are only 16 teams in the National League. When your highest paid player is Kevin Gregg, you either have Jesus himself negotiating your contracts, or your just plain suck.


American League

1) Red Sox- Johan Santana could still be on the way, although he's reportedly going to want around $140 Million for 7 years. Imagine Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield as your starting rotation, and then realize you are not dreaming or watching the all-star game, that this could soon be a reality. Sox are #1 by leaps and bounds. Conspiracy theorists are going crazy over how the Sox are not mentioned in the report, given that George Mitchell is on the Sox board of directors.
2) Yankees- Adding LaTroy Hawkins to an otherwise weak bullpen (especially given the fact that this is the Yankees) was a good move. They're also talking with Santana now.
3) Angels
4) Indians
5 (6) Tigers
6 (5) Mariners
7) Blue Jays- Recently added SS David Eckstein
8) Athletics- Dealing Dan Haren definetely has an effect on the teams' potency, but they don't drop them too far into the land of non-contender AL teams. Perhaps the possible addition of Barry Bonds could end up being a suprise blessing for the A's.
9) Twins- If they lose Santana they will drop, but for now the Twins will stay put.
10) White Sox
11) Rangers
12) Orioles- Trading Miguel Tejada was a good move, sacrificing a good current player for a brighter future. Fortunately for them, they'd have to lose a lot more than him to drop to the cellar of the American League where the Rays and Royals are stuck.
13) Rays
14) Royals

Interest in Jenkins Confirmed

There have been rumors of the Phillies having interest in Geoff Jenkins, and an article about that interest has been put on the Phillies Website. Jenkins would be the replacement for Aaron Rowand, and would hopefully bring experience to the team and some power back to the outfield. Jenkins is not a Free Agent, so a trade would have to be made. The Padres recently cut off ties with Mike Cameron, but acquired Jim Edmonds from the Cardinals late last night.

Rowand Gone

Aaron Rowand signed a $60 Million, 5 year deal with the Giants. Why the Giants spent that much over 5 years- a period during which they are very unlikely to contend- is beyond me. It's too bad that we lost him, but hopefully this will be an opportunity for Pat Gillick to get off his bum and use the money elsewhere.

Player Updates

Aaron Rowand: The Phillies offered him arbitration today, a small step towards keeping him, and a good one, as it assures the Phillies draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. He currently wants 5 years, $10-$12 million a season. The Dodgers were the top suitor, but an MLB.com report suggests that the Dodgers prefer Andruw Jones. After losing out on Torii Hunter, the White Sox showed interest, but they don't want to pay that much money. The Yankees might consider it if they traded Melky Cabrera.


Hideki Kuroda: Still a possibiliy, but he has said he wants to play on the West Coast. The Dodgers look like the best suitor here, although the Mariners and other teams have shown interest. Still, we still have an okay chance, especially if Rowand isn't signed.

Jon Lieber: The Phillies have shown interest along with the Astros.

Kyle Lohse: With the money he'll probably be looking for its unlikely he will return.

Melvin Mora: If Rowand is not signed, the Phillies may trade for the Orioles' Mora, who would waive his no-trade clause if he went to a winning team (interesting how we're on this end of this situation now after so many years of players like Scott Rolen and J.D. Drew leaving for a winning team). His contract is a hefty $8 million, so the Phillies would probably have to whiff on Rowand, Kuroda, and any other big names before they'd even consider trading for him. MLBtraderumors.com denies this interest, but anything can happen with Pat Gillick.

MLBtraderumors.com also reports that the Phillies have interest Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers, Livan Hernandez, Mark Prior, Shawn Chacon, Joe Kennedy, Brian Fuentes, and A.J. Burnett.



And Some bygones...

Troy Percival: Devil Rays, 2 Years, $8 million

Randy Wolf: Padres, $ 4 million

Mike Lowell: After denying interest in him, the Phillies made an offer that was barely beaten at the last second by the Red Sox. Let this serve as an example that Pat Gillick is very unpredictable.




My Advice: Sign Aaron Rowand unless a good offer is accepted by Kuroda, but even in that case I'd try to sign Rowand as well. A premier pitcher and veteran leader are both absolute necessities, and well worth the investment.

Jimmy Rollins Wins MVP!!!

Totally deserving here. Rollins this year, as Howard did in 2006, proves that the Phillies have a strong core of truly valuable players that could lead them to a championship in 2008. Holliday almost had the triple crown (Prince Fielder being the spoiler in the Home Run category), but Rollins was more... well... valuable. Extra base hits, the stolen bases, hits, home runs- Rollins had the works. Notice how the Phillies also had three guys in the top 10, the only team to have multiple guys there.

The voting:
Jimmy Rollins- 353 Votes (16 1st Place Votes)
Matt Holliday- 336 (11)
Prince Fielder- 284 (5)
David Wright- 182
Ryan Howard- 112
Chipper Jones- 107
Jake Peavy-97
Chase Utley-89
Albert Pujols- 50
Hanley Ramirez- 49
...
Aaron Rowand- 3

Phillies Fall Just Short of Signing Mike Lowell

After denying interest in signing any big name third-basemen, the Phillies reportedly made a 4-year, $50 Million dollar offer to Lowell, who wanted a four year deal, while the Red Sox had only offered him 3 years, $36 Million. However, after the Red Sox upped their offer to $37.5 Million, Lowell signed with the Sox.

I am suprised the Phillies went for a third baseman, or any position player, or a 4-year offer to any free agent, but Pat Gillick has been unpredictable. So close, yet so far- but this does bring around the possibility again of signing Aaron Rowand

Phillies Off-Season Preview: Position Players

It's safe to say that the Phillies lineup is going to be fine without any additions or re-signings this off-season. Barring any trades or any other unforeseen events, here is what the Phillies lineup would look like in 2008 if the Phillies did not sign or re-sign anybody this off-season (not shown in batting order)


1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms
C- Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Jayson Werth
RF- Shane Victorino

Bench:

Greg Dobbs (3B/1B/LF/RF) or Wes Helms (3B/1B)
Chris Roberson (LF/RF)
Pete LaForest (C/1B)
Chris Coste (C) or Carlos Ruiz (C)
Eric Bruntlett (2B/SS)

This lineup would certainly suffice. With Aaron Rowand gone there won't be as much depth and in this lineup and it's certainly less potent than last season , but given the improvements that should be made to pitching staff I'm not too worried. More importantly, Rowand was a leader in the clubhouse, and the loss of his influence might be a big problem for this young lineup. I also worry that as always with the Phillies, this lineup will be inconsistent and not able to perform game-after-game at the level needed to really be considered a championship contender.

Third Base has been considered a weak spot, as the offensive production from third base was nothing short of abysmal last season. However, Pat Gillick was quoted in the Daily News as saying he doesn't think anything but pitching will be addressed in the off-season...

"I don't know that [third base] is going to be addressed," Pat Gillick said as the annual general manager meetings got under way yesterday at the posh Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress resort. "We'll go with [Wes] Helms and [Greg] Dobbs. Because we're going to concentrate on pitching. If we go in any direction, we're going to concentrate on pitching... If we make a deal, it will be for pitching," the general manager said. "If we spend money, we'll spend it on pitching... If you improve your pitching, you don't have to have as much offense... You don't have to score as many runs if you don't let as many in."

This pretty much rules out the possible acquisition of any off-season improvements to the lineup. I agree fully with Gillick; this offense should be fine, despite the loss of Rowand. However, I wonder if the Phillies would have enough playoff experience as a team last year to be able to perform under playoff pressure in 2008, now having lost 2005 World Series Champions Tadihito Iguchi, Aaron Rowand, and Freddy Garcia. Many of the seasoned veterans who were on the 2007 Phillies are now free-agents. This worries me a bit, but hopefully this issue can be adressed when Pat Gillick goes shopping for pitchers this off-season.

2 Gold Gloves!

Congratulations to Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand on their 2007 Gold Glove Awards!

Some News to Start the Off-Season

As the first couple days of the off-season are now upon us, there is plenty in the news about trades, free agents, and speculation about who will go where- especially pertaining to the Phillies. Here’s the rundown:

• Aaron Rowand, Abraham Nunez, Antonio Alfonseca, J.C. Romero, Jon Lieber, and Jose Mesa all have filed for free-agency already.
• MLB.com reports that the other four eligible players, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Rod Barajas, and Tadihito Iguchi to file by the November 8th Deadline, suggesting all 10 elgibile players will enter free-agency
• We can expect Romero, Rowand, and Lohse especially to test the market for a better deal than what the Phillies would offer them. My guess is that Rowand and Lohse will pretty easily find a deal the Phillies won’t be able to match. Romero is pretty likely going to remain a Phillie, seeing how he likes the Phillies, they like him, and the Phillies need relievers.
• Don’t expect to see Lieber, Garcia, Barajas, or Iguchi to be signed. Pat Gillick has made it clear he isn’t going to sign Lieber or Garcia after their bad 2007 season, and the Phillies are covered at catcher and second base.
• Nunez was overpaid and didn’t live up to the expectations the organization had for him. He may be re-signed at a reduced salary
• Alfonseca and Mesa didn’t have impressive years, but the Phillies have a pretty strong need for relievers at this point.
• According the new Astros’ General Manager, (and former Phillies GM) Ed Wade, the Astros are interested in signing Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter.
• The general consensus among the Phillies and all journalists is that the Phillies have little or no interest in Alex Rodriguez.
• After writing goodbye letters to his teammates, and filing for free-agency, it’s now pretty certain that Curt Schlling will not be returning to the Red Sox.. Since he says that he’s looking for a one-year deal with a playoff-conteding team, and since a one-year deal is what the playoff-contending Phillies are looking for too, it seems even more likely that he will end up in Philadelphia for the 2008 season. Of all the possible acquisitions the Phillies could make, Schilling seems the most likely at the moment.
• Mariano Rivera filed for free-agency on Monday. Negotiations between him and the Yankees has started, but with Joe Torre gone Rivera’s heart might not be in New York. Rivera will probably test the market a bit, and hopefully will show interest in the Phillies. The Yankees are reportedly offering Rivera (as well as Jorge Posada) about $40 million over three years. Money will probably not be the biggest factor in Rivera’s decision of who to sign with.
• If you think Pat Burrell should be traded, keep dreaming; the $14 million dollar man has repeatedly expressed interest in staying in Philadelphia, and the no-trade clause in his contract means he’d have to approve any trade involving him.
  MLB.com recently released an article http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071030&content_id=2288203&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi about the Phillies’ pitching prospect Josh Outman, suggesting he may be ready to play for the Phillies in the near future.
• The Phillies recently hired former Devil Ray’s GM Chuck LaMar as their Director of Professional Scouting. It should be noted that LaMar was the one who traded Bobby Abreu to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker.
• In the first off-season trade, the Braves traded Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for two prospects, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez and pitcher Jair Jurrjens.
• Joe Torre will be the Dodger’s manager, after the Dodgers and manager Grady Little “parted ways” yesterday to make room for Torre. Joe Girardi, the 2006 Manager of the Year for the Marlins will take Torre’s place in the Yankees’ dugout.
• Barry Bonds is a free agent… talk about a possible way to bring in fans, and replace Aaron Rowand as a “veteran leader”. Okay, maybe these points are both useless, but there haven’t really been any rumors about where Barry will go…

Coming Soon... Projected 2008 25-Man Roster

Farewell Aaron Rowand

From MLB.COM:

It has been reported that Rowand is seeking a six-year deal worth $85 million, a price the Phillies reportedly can't afford. Though general manager Pat Gillick said there's money in the budget to retain Rowand and still address pitching, the team is likely willing to be in the three-year, $30-33 million range that Eric Byrnes received from Arizona this season.

The good news here is that there will now be a LOT of payroll room to adress pitching and possibly third base.

Could Mike Lowell be a Phillie in '08?

From the Boston Globe, 10/22/07:

The biggest question marks [for the Red Sox are third baseman Mike Lowell
and pitcher Curt Schilling. Lowell has said his first choice is to come back,
and the Sox have said they would like to make that happen. But he is likely to
command serious interest from other clubs, including the Yankees, especially if
Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. Lowell began his career in the Yankees
organization, and has not said he would reject them out of hand, like Schilling
said he would.

Another team Lowell recently expressed interest in is the
Phillies. "Where would I fit in the offense? You look at Jimmy Rollins and Chase
Utley and guys like that, and that has to bring a smile to your face," Lowell
told the Philadelphia Daily News. "And I've always hit well in that park. So
that would definitely be a team I would consider."

Lowell had the only
three-homer game of his career in Philadelphia, and is batting .353 (24 for 68)
lifetime in Citizens Bank Park. His father, Carlos, spent two years at Saint
Joseph's in Philadelphia and played for the Hawks.

"I grew up an ardent
Phillies fan because, on that trip with my parents, we stopped at a Burger King
and they were giving away baseball cards. I got a Mike Schmidt," Lowell told
Paul Hagen of the Daily News in '03, when the Marlins were in the World Series.
"I asked my dad, 'Is he a good player?' He said, yes, he was a very good player.
That was 1980 and Schmidt won the MVP that year."

Lowell, currently the Red Sox 3rd Baseman, has been talked about previously as a possible acquisition for this off-season. With Alex Rodriguez possibly on his way out of New York, he could be a free agent this off-season. While I'm sure a lot of people would love to see him in Philadelphia, they can all keep dreaming. The Red Sox, however, would be definitely interested in A-Rod, and that would mean they probably wouldn't hang on to Mike Lowell, who is their 3rd baseman, who is also eligible for free-agency.

Currently, with Abraham Nunez gone, the Phillies' are down to two possible third baseman, Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms. Both are mediocre players, but neither of them would really be a hole in the lineup. Still, acquiring Lowell, who was .324 during the 2007 season, with 21 homers and 120 RBIs, would be huge. He could fill a crucial role in the lineup and in the locker room that may be vacated with the possible departure of Aaron Rowand.

If Rowand does not return, acquiring Lowell would mean that the Phillies can keep their impressive, powerful offense intact, and still have a lot of money for strengthening their Pitching Staff. If Rowand does return, the need for Lowell may be slightly diminished, but acquiring him could still be a very wise move.

Will There be Fightin' for a Championship in '08?

The Phillies offered a rather disappointing end to their 2007 season, being swiftly swept by the Rockies in the NLDS. They were a young team that wasn’t really prepared to play in the postseason, plagued by their generally inconsistent play and lackluster pitching staff. They rode an impressive streak into the postseason, but still have many problematic shortcomings that need to be fixed.

The common philosophy when your season ends is “There’s always next year.” A lot of teams in professional sports, however, especially after making a long run towards a championship, are often plagued by one main problem in the off-season: keeping their strong team together. They have trouble re-signing their key players, as their value has gone up. Also, the egos of players on the team can over inflate (T.O. cough cough), hurting team chemistry. In football, the dreaded “Super Bowl Curse” plagues the teams who were in the super bowl (more commonly the losers, who almost always fall victim to the curse), as next season they play terribly for these reasons. This goes for all team sports, including baseball.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the Fightin’s won’t fall apart; in fact, next year they will be better than ever.

The Phillies have already committed more than $64 million dollars for the contracts of the following players in 2008:

Pat Burrell ($14 million)
Brett Myers ($8.5 million)
Jimmy Rollins ($8 million)
Adam Eaton ($7.635 million)
Chase Utley ($7.5 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Tom Gordon ($5.5 million)
Wes Helms ($2.15 million)
Jim Thome ($5.5 million- Thome is currently playing for the White Sox


To put it in perspective, their team salary has generally been about $95 million for the past few years. Burrell, Rollins, and Utley are without a doubt going to be starting next year. Moyer will likely be in the starting rotation, while they may try to trade Eaton, who struggled this season.
Eligible for arbitration next year are Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth, Geoff Geary, Julio Mateo, and Kane Davis. Howard made $900,000 last year as part of a one-year deal signed on March 3rd. Essentially the way arbitration works is the player will come up with a salary for next year, and the Phillies will come up with one. A neutral arbitrator chooses the most reasonable between the two, using the player’s stats. The teams can also sign the contract just by negotiating if they come to an agreement. A player of Howard’s caliber would surely get more than $5 million dollars (Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million last year), because the Phillies would be insane to go any lower, which would practically be just taking Howard . My guess is that he gets $6.5 million (per year, as are all the values unless otherwise mentioned). I’d offer a guess the other players end up being about $7.5 million combined. So, that brings my estimate to $78.5 million.

Next up are Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Coste, who should all be signed for a small amount, totaling maybe $3 Million. Also, the Phillies spent $800,000 buying out the contracts of Abraham Nunez and Rod Barajas on Thursday. That brings the estimate to $82.5 million.

Now for the possible Free Agents. Let’s assume the Phillies have about $15 million to spend.
We’ll start in the field, and first comes the big question mark of Aaron Rowand. He has been a team leader and fan favorite, but recent trade talks suggest he won’t be back. Rowand asked today for $84 million over 6 years, while the Phillies want a shorter, less-per-year contract. Maybe they are learning I suppose from the Jim Thome fiasco, which is still costing them- $5.5 million this year. It seems unlikely that the Phillies will go after Rowand.
That would theoretically leave the Phillies with these main starters:

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs
OF Jayson Werth
OF Shane Victorino
OF Pat Burrell


Now, that’s not a bad lineup at all, but the Phillies might look into a Free Agent 3rd Baseman or Outfielder. Doing this would be good, especially getting an outfielder, because an injury could put a big hole in the lineup. The only realistic long-term backup in the outfield would be Michael Bourn or Greg Dobbs. It’s too soon to guess what the Phillies will do, given the Aaron Rowand situation, but I would sign another outfielder if Rowand went, one in the $3-6 million dollar range. There are many possible candidates. Maybe Barry Bonds… just kidding.
Iguchi probably won’t be re-signed, as they have Utley.

Next comes starting pitching. Expect Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, whose contracts totaled $17.5 million this year, to not be resigned. MLB.com reports that the Phillies may end up bring up righty Kyle Drabeck, their 2006 first-round pick, who is currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He went 5-1 for the Lakewood Blue Claws, and may be ready before the all-star break. If there’s a weak link in the rotation, he will probably find his way in there.

That leaves the Phillies with Eaton, Kendrick, Hamels, Durbin, and Moyer in terms of starters. These four were all on the rotation at the end of the regular season. The other was Kyle Lohse, who is eligible for free agency. After Lohse’s strong run for the Phillies this year, he might ask for a lot. A lot of teams would be interested in him, but I see the Phillies going after him, adding I’m going to guess $6.5 million to the payroll. If Lohse wasn’t re-signed, the Phillies would probably sign another of the skilled reliever Free Agents.

It should be noted that Curt Schilling has been reported by Randy Miller of the Courier Times (who has a source inside the team) as being looked into by the Phillies. It is likely that he will end up leaving Boston, and he recently decided to settle down in southern New Jersey, making the Phillies a likely first-choice for him. They may end up signing him, but probably only if the front office raises the payroll, or Lohse isn’t re-signed.

Finally, the bullpen, the part of the team that needs the most improvement. Pat Gillick said that Brett Myers should remain as the closer, unless the Phillies end up somehow not resigning Lohse, and not getting another starter, in which case Myers would probably move into the starting rotation.

However, the Phillies have been reported by Miller as looking into another player in addition to Schilling- Mariano Rivera, who may become a free agent if the Yankees don’t exercise his $21 million dollar option. He would probably cost about $13 million, but his signing would mean Myers would return to the starting rotation, saving the Phillies money they may have had to spend on Lohse, Schilling, or another starting pitcher. Of course, their are no guarantees on how effective Myers will be as a starter after closing most of last year.

I could see J.D. Durbin possibly turning into a middle reliever if Eaton takes the fifth spot on the rotation, or if Schilling or Rivera are signed. The Free Agents are Mesa, Alfonseca, and Romero (Julio Santana was released). The Phillies want Romero back, and Romero wants to come back, so he will probably be re-signed for a few (I’ll guess 3) million. Mesa and Alfonseca should be released.

The Phillies could really round out a powerful roster with more relief pitching. There are too many candidates to name right now, but I have confidence Pat Gillick will come through here, whether or not he signs Rivera or Schilling.

Especially if Rowand goes, the Phillies could really use another seasoned veteran. As Gillick goes searching this off-season, he should, and likely will keep this in mind.
If things go well this off-season, our pitching problem should be completely solved, and the offense should be just as strong as last year.

One of the keys here is if the front office is willing to raise the payroll. With a higher payroll, the Phillies will surely be able to strengthen the bullpen. It’s likely that they will do so, as a strong team will attract a lot of fans to Citizens Bank Park- just look at the last couple weeks of the 2007 season. Who knows, maybe the front office will be generous enough that we can keep Rowand, sign Curt Schilling, Rivera, and another reliever. The front offices’ decision will have a huge effect on championship aspirations for next year.

If Pat Gillick continues the good work, making the right moves, and the front office sees the championship opportunity, the Phillies should be not only just as good next year, but likely much better. I can see it now: Citizens Bank Park twice as full as last year, a powerful pitching rotation without Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin, Mariano Rivera closing, and the Phillies becoming the best team in the National League. Should the front office see this opportunity, this is a whole lot more than wishful thinking.