Projected 2008 Opening Day Roster (6th Edition)

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
SP Adam Eaton
LRP Chad Durbin
LRP Francisco Rosario
SU Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
CP Tom Gordon
-- Brad Lidge*
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Greg Dobbs
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

*Injured, but not on Disabled List

Notes:

• It remains to be seem whether Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms will be on the Opening Day roster. Having both is a very unlikely proposition, and would likely only happen if either of them are traded, or if Eric Bruntlett was sent down to AAA. The Phillies are unlikely to opt to have more than five bench players (five are shown here). At the moment, it looks like a toss-up between the two.
• Brad Lidge will probably not be fully ready for opening day (although it's looking like he might rush himself out of excitement), meaning that Tom Gordon will move from set-up man to interim closer.
• I wouldn't say Fransico Rosario is anywhere close to a definite; there will be a lot of competition for a bullpen spot or two, and there are a lot of contenders
• Adam Eaton will probably be on a short leash. Expect Kris Benson (once he's healthy) and Chad Durbin to be next in line for that rotation spot. Shane Youman and Travis Blackley are also options.
• I like what I've seen from Joe Savery during Spring Training. A bit further down the road this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phillies give him a shot in the rotation, a la Kyle Kendrick.
• Kyle Lohse would be a huge boost, and his value has decreased from about 4 years $40 Million to 1 year $4 Million (another player screwed by agent Scott Boras). Still, the Phillies don't want to spend any more money. Lohse would be a huge boost to the rotation, and I fail to see why they won't take such an incredible bargain.

"Projected" 2009 Roster

We're coming up on the final week before Spring Training 2008... but it's never too early to think about 2009. With that in mind, I present to you the Phillies projected 2009 25-man roster...

SP Cole Hamels (L)
SP Brett Myers
SP Curt Schilling
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Clay Condrey
MRP Mike Zagurski (L)
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Brian Fuentes (L)
CP Joe Nathan
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Pedro Feliz
3B Greg Dobbs
CF Shane Victorino
LF Milton Bradley
RF Geoff Jenkins
OF T.J. Bohn
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Jason Jamarillo

Projected 2008 Roster, 5th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Pedro Feliz
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• It's unfortunate, but the signing of Pedro Feliz probably means that Greg Dobbs will not be on the 25-man roster. It's also possible, but less likely, that Wes Helms is the one who's removed to make room for Feliz
• Expect Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin to be competing with a heck of a lot of other pitchers for those final two bullpen spots.
• I was almost put Kyle Lohse on here, since it seems unlikely at this point that the Mets want him given their interest in Johan Santana and Livan Hernandez. Another free-agent I'd watch at this point is Kris Benson. Otherwise, the other possible, but unlikely candidates are the Orioles' Eric Bedard and Livan Hernandez.

Projected 2008 Roster, 4th Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP/SP Chad Durbin
LRP J.D. Durbin
MRP Ryan Madson
MRP Clay Condrey
MRP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Geoff Jenkins
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF So Taguchi
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• Players who could be next in line (noted with their usual position) :
  -From the 40-Man Roster: SP Scott Mathieson, RP Matt Zagurski (L), LRP/SP Shane Youman (L), LRP John Ennis, SP Travis Blackley (L), MRP Fabrio Castro (L), C Jason Jaramillo, 2B Brad Harman, OF Chris Snelling, and OF T.J. Bohn
  -Not on Current Roster: SP Carlos Carrasco, SP Josh Outman (L), SP Joe Savery (L), and C Pete LaForest
• LaForest was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley recently.
• Chris Roberson was traded yesterday to the Orioles for cash. Hopefully that cash goes towards a big-name pitcher such as Bob Wickman or Bartolo Colon, but for the time being that looks unlikely. It seems more likely that the Phillies will do as they did last season and wait until the trade deadline.
• If Adam Eaton is at-or-near 100%, expect him to be the fifth man in the rotation. If not, expect the Phillies to start the season with Chad Durbin in that position. However, the Phillies may try out some alternative options, especially if Eaton will be out for more than a few weeks. The Phillies are preparing for this by having 24 pitchers on their 40-man roster and 7 non-roster invitees, at least one of which the Phillies hope will be another Kyle Kendrick.
• Beyond Chad Durbin and Eaton, the Phillies could end up experimenting with some of the following pitchers (or even other pitchers not yet in the running) for the fifth spot in the rotation, depending on who does a good job of showing their stuff during spring training (the list is conviniently ordered from most to least likely): J.D. Durbin, Youman, Blackley, Mathieson, Carrasco, Ennis, Outman, Savery.
• If Eaton won’t be starting, expect him to be on the disabled list until he’s at-or-near 100%. At that time he’ll probably do some rehab assignments, make a relief appearance or two, and come back into the rotation. How fast all this happens depends how desperate the Phillies are to have him back. It is also a possibility that, like Jon Lieber, or John Smoltz (okay, maybe not the fairest comparison), Eaton could end up pitching in the bullpen when he returns.

Projected 2008 Roster, 3rd Edition

SP Cole Hamels (Left-Handed)
SP Brett Myers
SP Kris Benson*
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer (L)
LRP/SP Adam Eaton
LRP J.D. Durbin
LRP Ryan Madson
MRP Fabrio Castro
MRP Clay Condrey
RP J.C. Romero (L)
SU Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
SS Eric Bruntlett
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
LF Pat Burrell
OF Mike Cameron*
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste

Notes:

• Pat Gillick raised the possibility of trading prospects for pitching a couple weeks back. This could bring Mike Mussina or another older pitcher to the Phillies.
• If Mike Cameron isn't signed, Geoff Jenkins
• It's unlikely that Adam Eaton will start the year in the rotation, as he is still rehabbing his arm. When he is back to full strength he will hopefully and probably pitch a lot better than he did in 2007. The Phillies will meanwhile try to obtain another pitcher to help fill his spot, many who are coming off injuries. Free-Agent Kris Benson is the front-runner, but an offer has reportedly been made to Kyle Lohse, who would be a better option . Fabrio Castro and J.D. Durbin seem to be the front-runners for replacing Eaton if a new player doesn't, or taking over if a starter goes down. Rule 5 draft-pick Travis Blackley is also an option. In general, at this point, it looks like the more probable alternative is looking at a bunch of guys during Spring Training and hoping that one of them looks good enough to enter the rotation.
• If Eaton goes to the minors, or to the disabled list, a reliever will probably come up to take his place on the roster (not in the rotation).
• The Phillies have a very large amount of pitching talent down in the minors, and it's probable that with or without an injury, some new faces will show up in the bullpen. It's anyone's guess who that will be.
• The bullpen looks to be a bit dicey, as the Phillies have a lot of prospects and journeymen lined up to vie for a spot in the bullpen, and besides closer Brad Lidge, Set-Up man Tom Gordon, and J.C Romero, talent in the pen is sparse.
• It's not probable that Kris Benson will join the team, but there is still a good chance that he will. The Phillies are hoping for support in the outfield as well as at third.

Projected 2008 Roster, 2nd Edition

SP Cole Hamels
SP Hideki Kuroda*
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
RP Tom Gordon
RP J.C. Romero
RP Ryan Madson
RP J.D. Durbin
RP Adam Eaton
RP Jeremy Affeldt*
CP Brad Lidge
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms
3B Greg Dobbs
SS Eric Bruntlett
LF Pat Burrell
OF Shane Victorino
OF Jayson Werth
OF Chris Roberson
C Carlos Ruiz
C Chris Coste
C Pete LaForest

Notes:

• In case you didn't know, J.C. Romero has been signed to a 3 year, $12 Million dollar contract with a $4.75 Million dollar option.
• Jeremy Affeldt is a placeholder- if he’s not there, I’m guessing another free-agent pitcher will be.
• Expect Chris Roberson and/or Pete LaForest to be the first to go in the likely event that the Phillies acquire somebody in a trade, add a prospect to the roster, add another pitcher, or add a more versatile utility player, etc. Roberson will not go unless an outfielder comes along- LaForest is more expendable.
• Adam Eaton and/or J.D. Durbin will be the first pitchers to go (likely after LaForest or Roberson if a pitching prospect or free-agent pitcher gets added to the roster.
• Adam Eaton is by far the most likely out of all these guys to get traded. Otherwise he may start but will more likely be sent to AAA or work out of the pen.
• Hideki Kuroda is a placeholder of sorts, as I think one out of many different free-agent starting pitchers could be signed for the rotation.
• In the likely event that one of the starters collapses, a prospect may find their way into the rotation, just like Kyle Kendrick did in 2007.
• Brett Myers could still possibly remain in the bullpen if two starters are added to the roster, or if he bombs like he did in the beginning of 2007.
• Players I don’t expect to see on this roster (less that 50% chance): Jeremy Affeldt, Hideki Koroda, and Pete LaForest.

Summary of Expected Off-Season Moves:

• Acquire one (or two) relief pitchers
• Acquire one (or two) starting pitcher
• Note: two starters and a reliever could be acquired, allowing Brett Myers to stay in the bullpen

Keys to the World Series, and Game-by-Game Predictions

Keys to The Series:

Road Play: For the Red Sox, adjusting to Coors Field is important- if they get even only just one win in Colorado, they are left only needing to win 3 at Fenway, which won’t be too hard to do. If they win two in Colorado, or even three, they’d almost certainly win. For the Rockies, stealing one at Fenway in the first two games could put them in the driver’s seat- they will very likely get two or three wins at home, which would let them bring a lead back to Fenway in game 6, or they may not even have to play at Fenway again. If the Rockies can’t get the momentum of winning one at Fenway in games 1 or 2, a return to Fenway in games 6 or 7 could be disastrous for the Rockies.

Young Pitchers: All four of the Rockies starters, and John Lester for the Sox, are all young pitchers who aren’t all that familiar with the fall classic. The Rockies’ pitchers have done incredible this postseason even with that fact, but now they’re playing a powerhouse American League opponent. The Rockies need these guys to continue to pitch strongly if they want any chance at all of winning, and a Lester win in Colorado would be a huge blow to the Rockies, who need to make their home games count.

Josh Beckett: If Beckett isn’t the MVP of the World Series, then the Rockies will probably be the ones raising the World Series trophy. Beckett has been absolutely ridiculous this postseason. He’s 3-0 in the playoffs with a 1.17 ERA. He’s the definite AL Cy Young winner, the only pitcher to win 20 games in 2007. His two wins undoubtedly saved the Sox in the ALCS. If the Rockies can muster just one win against him that would turn the series in their favor.

Momentum: The Rockies have won 21 out of 22 games, and the Red Sox just won three straight elimination games. The difference is that the Red Sox have had a 3-day layoff, the Rockies a 9-day layoff. If the Rockies are still hot after the long days they spent in snowy Denver, they can gain the advantage in the series. If the Rockies have died down, the Red Sox will destroy them. This being said, along with the last key, Game 1 happens to be the most important game of the series, especially for the Rockies, who could go from 2:1 odds of victory to 1:2 odds with a win over Beckett.


World Series Matchup:

Game 1: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: 65% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-3 Red Sox
It may be game 1, but this game can really make or break the series for the Rockies. They can prove they are still hot, and put aside worries about the 9-day layoff. More importantly, if they somehow beat the unstoppable Josh Beckett, I’d say their chances of winning the series go to 20% if they lost, and 50% if they won. Beckett should let up a few runs to the powerful Rockies lineup, but not enough to worry Sox fans.


Game 2: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: 50% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-6 Red Sox
The way Jimenez and Schilling have been pitching lately, I’d actually give Jimenez the edge. If both these guys pitch the way they have been pitching recently, I’d call this game as a coin flip. Assuming I have to give the advantage away, I’d say the Red Sox get it, unless the Rockies really make a strong rebound from game 1. If the Rockies won game 1, I’d say the chances are the same. A loss here would really be discouraging and devastating to the Rockies.


Game 3: Fogg vs. Dice-K
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 12-6 Rockies
Dice-K gets the obvious edge here, as he’s begun to settle down. The big question here is if the Red Sox can really perform in Colorado. I think that for this reason they probably will struggle for this game, and I see them losing. The Sox will have a much harder time on the road than the Rockies.

Game 4: Aaron Cook vs. John Lester
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 8-2 Rockies
Neither of these guys was too impressive during the season. The question for me in this game is if the Sox can adjust to Coors field. I say that’s not probable, and thus I give the Rockies the edge. Surprisingly to me, the Rockies aren’t down 3-1 in my book at this point.

Game 5: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: Red Sox 60%
Predicted Score: 6-4 Red Sox
I’d say there is an equally good and bad chance that the Red Sox will have trouble adjusting by now. Coors Field could possibly just stop them right in their tracks, or not. Beckett may have trouble pitching at Coors, but he’s Josh Beckett, one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball, so I think the Sox can squeeze one win out of the Rockies at Coors.

Game 6: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: Red Sox 70%
Predicted Score: 11-4 Red Sox
A win at Coors should drive the Rockies into a corner they haven’t been anywhere close to in over a month, and the Red Sox should win in their first game back at Fenway.


Red Sox win Series, 3-2
Word Series MVP: Josh Beckett
Other Candidates to note as of now: Matt Holliday, Kaz Matsui, Brad Hawpe, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez


things could happen. Here are some scenarios

Rockies win Game 1: 60% chance Rockies win series, predicted series outcome 4-2 Rockies

Rockies win first two games: 80% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies

First two games are split: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Rockies win all home games: 65% Rockies, 4-2 Rockies

Series goes back to Boston 3-2 Rockies: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Series go back to Boston 3-2 Red Sox: 80% Red Sox, 4-2 Red Sox

Rockies win first 3: 95% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies (you never know with the Red Sox though...)

Game 7 situation: 85% Red Sox

Thoughts on the World Series

The Rockies have only really gotten this far into the playoffs by riding a streak, and even though they've been able to keep it going on a few days' rest, it will have been nine days since their last game when they play the also-hot Red Sox Wednesday night. Now, the Sox are by leaps and bounds better than any team the Rox faced over their streak. This isn't to say that the Rockies may still be hot- despite the snow in Denver- come Wednesday. It's possible that the Rockies will really prove their worth, playing well even after that break. Still, even if they can do so, the Red Sox have just as much momentum. As much as I have a feeling that the Rockies are unstoppable, their facing another powerhouse now.

Red Sox are World Series Champs in 6 games

A Look into the Future?

On September 29, the Phillies lost a national broadcast game to the Washington Nationals 4-2, with a bad outing by Adam Eaton and a game of blown opportunities. They fell back into a tie with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Dissapointment was in the air. I've decided to take a ride in the old time machine, one year ahead of then, 366 days later, to the same date in 2008. While I was there, I was able to pick up this snippet from the Paper...

Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, 9/29/08

If you went around talking to any of the 44,000+ fans at Citizens Bank Park yesterday, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone with a downbeat attitude. That is, unless they were a Rockies fan.

It was a day of milestone-shattering, cheering, and redemption. The Fightin’s 12-3 victory marks their 5th straight win against the defending World Series champion Rockies, putting the Rockies a game-and-a-half back in the Wild Card race behind the 87-74 Braves. The Braves play a doubleheader today to end the season.

“This is our payback for last year,” said Jimmy Rollins, “They really beat us up last year in the playoffs, and now we’re getting our turn.” Rollins was 3-6 with 2 runs batted in.

The win moves the Phillies up to 93-68, and they will have the best record in the National League in two years, and the second-best record in baseball. Curt Schilling got his 14th win, going 7 strong innings, striking out 5. But, yesterday was a day for the records…

A year ago you wouldn’t find Mariano Rivera and the Phillies in the same sentence. Yesterday, Rivera got his 46th save, breaking Jose Mesa’s team record of 45 set back in 2002.
“This is unbelievable… this city is incredible. I’ve had a lot of great years, but my time here has soared above and beyond my expectations.”

However, the fans were already cheering like crazy for the big man, Ryan Howard. In the Bottom of the 8th Inning, with Mike Cameron on second and Mike Lowell on third, 2 outs, and the count 2-2, Howard hit an opposite field shot off LaTroy Hawkins. Chaos erupted- it was Howard’s 61st homer of the season, passing Babe Ruth and tying Roger Maris for the 7th most home runs in a single season in MLB history, also breaking his club record of 58.

“You grow up hearing all about the Babe, said Howard, “He’s probably the biggest slugger in history. To hit more home runs than he did, well, I can’t describe the feeling.”
If the Phillies win tomorrow, they face the Padres in the first round. If the Rockies win and the Braves lose both games of the doubleheader, the Phillies could face the Rockies instead.
Rollins smiled at the possibility, “Another series with them? Wow, this just gets better and better.”