Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Some News to Start the Off-Season

As the first couple days of the off-season are now upon us, there is plenty in the news about trades, free agents, and speculation about who will go where- especially pertaining to the Phillies. Here’s the rundown:

  • Aaron Rowand, Abraham Nunez, Antonio Alfonseca, J.C. Romero, Jon Lieber, and Jose Mesa all have filed for free-agency already.
  • MLB.com reports that the other four eligible players, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Rod Barajas, and Tadihito Iguchi to file by the November 8th Deadline, suggesting all 10 elgibile players will enter free-agency
  • We can expect Romero, Rowand, and Lohse especially to test the market for a better deal than what the Phillies would offer them. My guess is that Rowand and Lohse will pretty easily find a deal the Phillies won’t be able to match. Romero is pretty likely going to remain a Phillie, seeing how he likes the Phillies, they like him, and the Phillies need relievers.
  • Don’t expect to see Lieber, Garcia, Barajas, or Iguchi to be signed. Pat Gillick has made it clear he isn’t going to sign Lieber or Garcia after their bad 2007 season, and the Phillies are covered at catcher and second base.
  • Nunez was overpaid and didn’t live up to the expectations the organization had for him. He may be re-signed at a reduced salary
  • Alfonseca and Mesa didn’t have impressive years, but the Phillies have a pretty strong need for relievers at this point.
  • According the new Astros’ General Manager, (and former Phillies GM) Ed Wade, the Astros are interested in signing Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter.
  • The general consensus among the Phillies and all journalists is that the Phillies have little or no interest in Alex Rodriguez.
  • After writing goodbye letters to his teammates, and filing for free-agency, it’s now pretty certain that Curt Schlling will not be returning to the Red Sox.. Since he says that he’s looking for a one-year deal with a playoff-conteding team, and since a one-year deal is what the playoff-contending Phillies are looking for too, it seems even more likely that he will end up in Philadelphia for the 2008 season. Of all the possible acquisitions the Phillies could make, Schilling seems the most likely at the moment.
  • Mariano Rivera filed for free-agency on Monday. Negotiations between him and the Yankees has started, but with Joe Torre gone Rivera’s heart might not be in New York. Rivera will probably test the market a bit, and hopefully will show interest in the Phillies. The Yankees are reportedly offering Rivera (as well as Jorge Posada) about $40 million over three years. Money will probably not be the biggest factor in Rivera’s decision of who to sign with.
  • If you think Pat Burrell should be traded, keep dreaming; the $14 million dollar man has repeatedly expressed interest in staying in Philadelphia, and the no-trade clause in his contract means he’d have to approve any trade involving him.
    MLB.com recently released an article http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071030&content_id=2288203&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi about the Phillies’ pitching prospect Josh Outman, suggesting he may be ready to play for the Phillies in the near future.
  • The Phillies recently hired former Devil Ray’s GM Chuck LaMar as their Director of Professional Scouting. It should be noted that LaMar was the one who traded Bobby Abreu to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker.
  • In the first off-season trade, the Braves traded Edgar Renteria to the Tigers for two prospects, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez and pitcher Jair Jurrjens.
  • Joe Torre will be the Dodger’s manager, after the Dodgers and manager Grady Little “parted ways” yesterday to make room for Torre. Joe Girardi, the 2006 Manager of the Year for the Marlins will take Torre’s place in the Yankees’ dugout.
  • Barry Bonds is a free agent… talk about a possible way to bring in fans, and replace Aaron Rowand as a “veteran leader”. Okay, maybe these points are both useless, but there haven’t really been any rumors about where Barry will go…

Coming Soon... Projected 2008 25-Man Roster

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Farewell Aaron Rowand

From MLB.COM:

It has been reported that Rowand is seeking a six-year deal worth $85 million, a price the Phillies reportedly can't afford. Though general manager Pat Gillick said there's money in the budget to retain Rowand and still address pitching, the team is likely willing to be in the three-year, $30-33 million range that Eric Byrnes received from Arizona this season.

The good news here is that there will now be a LOT of payroll room to adress pitching and possibly third base.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Red Sox are World Series Champions

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, the 2007 World Series Champions. Seems like the curse has been reversed onto the Yankees after 2004...

As much as I wish that I could say the Rockies’ play in the series proves they only won the pennant by riding a streak, it’s not really true. When you look at the play of all the teams in the National League, the Rockies were clearly the best team.

What this series does demonstrate the dominance of the American League’s powerhouse teams versus the best teams in the National League. The American League tends to have a much larger margin of winning percentages between their playoff contenders and non-playoff contenders than the National League does. This, and the fact that the American League is a bit better than the National League as a whole, resulted in the American League’s playoff teams generally being much better than those of the National League. The 7-9 playoff contenders (depending on how you define a contender) in the National League had win totals in the mid-to-high 80s (the Rockies and Diamondbacks had 90), with 7 teams ending more than 5 games out of a playoff spot. In the American League, there were four teams with 94 or more wins, two teams with 88 wins, one with 84, and 8 teams 11 or more games out of the wild card hunt. In mid-September, the American League playoff spots were all but filled, while 10 NL teams had legitimate playoff hopes. You would have been hard-pressed to find any matchups in which Vegas would have favored any of the NL contenders over any of the AL contenders.

The National League provided an incredible September, with incredible drives by the Rockies and Phillies to make the playoffs, and many teams hung on until the last day. The American League’s September was pretty boring, as there wasn’t any sort of a down-to-the-wire finish in any of the races.

The playoffs ended up being pretty one-sided in both leagues. Only two series, both in the American League, were not sweeps: The Indians winning the ALDS 3-1, and the Red Sox winning the ALCS 4-3 after an impressive climb back from a 3-1 deficit. The one-sided matchups and elimination of most of the popular teams (i.e. the Yankees) ended up making the 2007 playoffs less watched and less interesting than previous years. The Rockies made a huge run that stemmed from the regular season, and the Red Sox overcame a 3-1 deficit, and swept the Rockies- not a lot of excitement here. This year, the regular season proved much more interesting, as it did in days of old.

On the subject of Mike Lowell, after winning World Series MVP, his market value has certainly gone up, lowering the chances the Phillies will end up acquiring him as a free agent.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Mid-Game Thoughts on World Series Game 1

Beckett has been great, but the story is the Rockies just weren't ready for the Sox. The hot offense and defense for the Rockies cooled down in Denver over the break. If you want evidence, here it is: Josh Beckett struck out the side in the first inning using nothing but 95 MPH fastballs- the Rockies' bats were too cold to hit a fast version the simplest pitch in baseball. The Rockies' pitching has also cooled off- there's no other explanation for the awful 7-run two-out Sox rally that just happened in the 5th, including Ryan Speier walking home three straight runs.

The Rockies were too hot for their own good- they created a long layoff that cooled them off in the end. Anyway, I don't think any NL team could beat out the Sox in the series the way the Sox are playing. Their making the Rockies look like the Rockies made the Phillies look in the NLDS.

Keys to the World Series, and Game-by-Game Predictions

Keys to The Series:

Road Play: For the Red Sox, adjusting to Coors Field is important- if they get even only just one win in Colorado, they are left only needing to win 3 at Fenway, which won’t be too hard to do. If they win two in Colorado, or even three, they’d almost certainly win. For the Rockies, stealing one at Fenway in the first two games could put them in the driver’s seat- they will very likely get two or three wins at home, which would let them bring a lead back to Fenway in game 6, or they may not even have to play at Fenway again. If the Rockies can’t get the momentum of winning one at Fenway in games 1 or 2, a return to Fenway in games 6 or 7 could be disastrous for the Rockies.

Young Pitchers: All four of the Rockies starters, and John Lester for the Sox, are all young pitchers who aren’t all that familiar with the fall classic. The Rockies’ pitchers have done incredible this postseason even with that fact, but now they’re playing a powerhouse American League opponent. The Rockies need these guys to continue to pitch strongly if they want any chance at all of winning, and a Lester win in Colorado would be a huge blow to the Rockies, who need to make their home games count.

Josh Beckett: If Beckett isn’t the MVP of the World Series, then the Rockies will probably be the ones raising the World Series trophy. Beckett has been absolutely ridiculous this postseason. He’s 3-0 in the playoffs with a 1.17 ERA. He’s the definite AL Cy Young winner, the only pitcher to win 20 games in 2007. His two wins undoubtedly saved the Sox in the ALCS. If the Rockies can muster just one win against him that would turn the series in their favor.

Momentum: The Rockies have won 21 out of 22 games, and the Red Sox just won three straight elimination games. The difference is that the Red Sox have had a 3-day layoff, the Rockies a 9-day layoff. If the Rockies are still hot after the long days they spent in snowy Denver, they can gain the advantage in the series. If the Rockies have died down, the Red Sox will destroy them. This being said, along with the last key, Game 1 happens to be the most important game of the series, especially for the Rockies, who could go from 2:1 odds of victory to 1:2 odds with a win over Beckett.


World Series Matchup:

Game 1: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: 65% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-3 Red Sox
It may be game 1, but this game can really make or break the series for the Rockies. They can prove they are still hot, and put aside worries about the 9-day layoff. More importantly, if they somehow beat the unstoppable Josh Beckett, I’d say their chances of winning the series go to 20% if they lost, and 50% if they won. Beckett should let up a few runs to the powerful Rockies lineup, but not enough to worry Sox fans.


Game 2: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: 50% Red Sox
Predicted Score: 7-6 Red Sox
The way Jimenez and Schilling have been pitching lately, I’d actually give Jimenez the edge. If both these guys pitch the way they have been pitching recently, I’d call this game as a coin flip. Assuming I have to give the advantage away, I’d say the Red Sox get it, unless the Rockies really make a strong rebound from game 1. If the Rockies won game 1, I’d say the chances are the same. A loss here would really be discouraging and devastating to the Rockies.


Game 3: Fogg vs. Dice-K
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 12-6 Rockies
Dice-K gets the obvious edge here, as he’s begun to settle down. The big question here is if the Red Sox can really perform in Colorado. I think that for this reason they probably will struggle for this game, and I see them losing. The Sox will have a much harder time on the road than the Rockies.

Game 4: Aaron Cook vs. John Lester
Winner: 60% Rockies
Predicted Score: 8-2 Rockies
Neither of these guys was too impressive during the season. The question for me in this game is if the Sox can adjust to Coors field. I say that’s not probable, and thus I give the Rockies the edge. Surprisingly to me, the Rockies aren’t down 3-1 in my book at this point.

Game 5: Francis vs. Beckett
Winner: Red Sox 60%
Predicted Score: 6-4 Red Sox
I’d say there is an equally good and bad chance that the Red Sox will have trouble adjusting by now. Coors Field could possibly just stop them right in their tracks, or not. Beckett may have trouble pitching at Coors, but he’s Josh Beckett, one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball, so I think the Sox can squeeze one win out of the Rockies at Coors.

Game 6: Jimenez vs. Schilling
Winner: Red Sox 70%
Predicted Score: 11-4 Red Sox
A win at Coors should drive the Rockies into a corner they haven’t been anywhere close to in over a month, and the Red Sox should win in their first game back at Fenway.


Red Sox win Series, 3-2
Word Series MVP: Josh Beckett
Other Candidates to note as of now: Matt Holliday, Kaz Matsui, Brad Hawpe, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez


things could happen. Here are some scenarios

Rockies win Game 1: 60% chance Rockies win series, predicted series outcome 4-2 Rockies

Rockies win first two games: 80% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies

First two games are split: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Rockies win all home games: 65% Rockies, 4-2 Rockies

Series goes back to Boston 3-2 Rockies: 50% Red Sox, 4-3 Red Sox

Series go back to Boston 3-2 Red Sox: 80% Red Sox, 4-2 Red Sox

Rockies win first 3: 95% Rockies, 4-0 Rockies (you never know with the Red Sox though...)

Game 7 situation: 85% Red Sox

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Could Mike Lowell be a Phillie in '08?

From the Boston Globe, 10/22/07:

The biggest question marks [for the Red Sox are third baseman Mike Lowell
and pitcher Curt Schilling. Lowell has said his first choice is to come back,
and the Sox have said they would like to make that happen. But he is likely to
command serious interest from other clubs, including the Yankees, especially if
Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. Lowell began his career in the Yankees
organization, and has not said he would reject them out of hand, like Schilling
said he would.


Another team Lowell recently expressed interest in is the
Phillies. "Where would I fit in the offense? You look at Jimmy Rollins and Chase
Utley and guys like that, and that has to bring a smile to your face," Lowell
told the Philadelphia Daily News. "And I've always hit well in that park. So
that would definitely be a team I would consider."


Lowell had the only
three-homer game of his career in Philadelphia, and is batting .353 (24 for 68)
lifetime in Citizens Bank Park. His father, Carlos, spent two years at Saint
Joseph's in Philadelphia and played for the Hawks.


"I grew up an ardent
Phillies fan because, on that trip with my parents, we stopped at a Burger King
and they were giving away baseball cards. I got a Mike Schmidt," Lowell told
Paul Hagen of the Daily News in '03, when the Marlins were in the World Series.
"I asked my dad, 'Is he a good player?' He said, yes, he was a very good player.
That was 1980 and Schmidt won the MVP that year."



Lowell, currently the Red Sox 3rd Baseman, has been talked about previously as a possible acquisition for this off-season. With Alex Rodriguez possibly on his way out of New York, he could be a free agent this off-season. While I'm sure a lot of people would love to see him in Philadelphia, they can all keep dreaming. The Red Sox, however, would be definitely interested in A-Rod, and that would mean they probably wouldn't hang on to Mike Lowell, who is their 3rd baseman, who is also eligible for free-agency.

Currently, with Abraham Nunez gone, the Phillies' are down to two possible third baseman, Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms. Both are mediocre players, but neither of them would really be a hole in the lineup. Still, acquiring Lowell, who was .324 during the 2007 season, with 21 homers and 120 RBIs, would be huge. He could fill a crucial role in the lineup and in the locker room that may be vacated with the possible departure of Aaron Rowand.

If Rowand does not return, acquiring Lowell would mean that the Phillies can keep their impressive, powerful offense intact, and still have a lot of money for strengthening their Pitching Staff. If Rowand does return, the need for Lowell may be slightly diminished, but acquiring him could still be a very wise move.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Thoughts on the World Series

The Rockies have only really gotten this far into the playoffs by riding a streak, and even though they've been able to keep it going on a few days' rest, it will have been nine days since their last game when they play the also-hot Red Sox Wednesday night. Now, the Sox are by leaps and bounds better than any team the Rox faced over their streak. This isn't to say that the Rockies may still be hot- despite the snow in Denver- come Wednesday. It's possible that the Rockies will really prove their worth, playing well even after that break. Still, even if they can do so, the Red Sox have just as much momentum. As much as I have a feeling that the Rockies are unstoppable, their facing another powerhouse now.

Red Sox are World Series Champs in 6 games

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Season Awards

NL co-MVPs: Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday
Reasoning: Holliday’s offensive stats are simply more impressive, but J-Roll’s amazing defensive play and speed make him more well-rounded than Holliday. Both teams are already offensive powerhouses, so both players offense matters less than their play in other departments. Rollins has clearly had a bigger effect on the Phillies’ success than Holliday on the Rockies’ success, although Holliday’s team is the one who won the pennant. Personally, I’d give them co-MVP, even though that is difficult to do in reality. If I had to rank my top 3, it would be Holliday in 1st, Rollins in 2nd, and out of a lot of candidates for 3rd, David Wright (even with the Mets demise; Howard and Utley both have impressive numbers for players who were injured for a while; Prince Fielder is probably the fourth best).

NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun
Ryan Braun barely beats out Troy Tulowitzki. Not much to say here.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Peavy is the clear-cut winner, after posting incredible stats. 2nd is Brandon Webb, and a close race for 3rd is won by Cole Hamels, despite missing part of the season. Any lefty with a 3.50 ERA at Citizen’s Bank Park is an incredible pitcher, and I don’t know what the Phillies would do without him.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod, who will end up hitting 800 homers in his career, destroys an otherwise close pack.

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
Even more of a clear-cut winner than A-Rod. What he’s done for the Red Sox is above and beyond what would be expected of a Rookie.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
Yet another clear-cut winner. Many pitchers have pitched well this season, but if you saw Beckett’s stuff in his playoff appearances, you know this is the best pitcher in baseball right now.


Phillies Awards

MVP: Jimmy Rollins
He wins for the same reasons mentioned before. Utley and Howard share a close 2nd/3rd, putting up impressive stats given the amount of time they missed. Aaron Rowand is definitely close to these top three, an all-around great player, team leader, and fan-favorite. Cole Hamels would be my final candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Kyle Kendrick
This guy was in AA last year? If only Garcia and Lieber had been injured sooner- he’d probably be the NL rookie of the year in that case.

Comeback Player of the Year: Pat Burrell
Burrell’s mid-season offensive turnaround was unbelievable. He could probably have been the NL MVP if he had made this turnaround sooner.

The “Jim Thome” Overrated co-Players of the Year Award: Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber
Goes to the almost distant memories. Wasted money; these players may win 15 games for another team next year, but their lackluster play while they were playing hurt the Phillies greatly in the beginning of the season.

The “Ryan Howard”* Underrated Player of the Year Award: Geoff Geary
Geary may have had a rocky start to the season, but down the stretch he was absolutely incredible, with an ERA below 2.75, and yet we hear so little praise for this guy.
*Called up in 2004 as a pinch-hitter, wins Rookie of the Year the following year, MVP the next

Co-10th Man/Pinch Hitters of the Year: Tadihito Iguchi and Greg Dobbs
Both these backups have numbers that could easily land them a starting job on most other teams, and have come through with many big clutch hits this season. Iguchi took Utley’s place well, as he batted .304, and Dobbs had 10 HR and 55 RBI in only 324 at-bats. If he had started the whole season, he’d have close to 20 HR and 100 RBI.

The “Anyone but Freddy Garcia” Player to Watch Next Year Award: Cole Hamels
Expect Hamels to only get better, along with the Phillies in general next year. Hamels should win at least 15 games, if not 20, and the Phillies as a whole should do even better than this year.

Monday, October 15, 2007

A Look into the Future?

On September 29, the Phillies lost a national broadcast game to the Washington Nationals 4-2, with a bad outing by Adam Eaton and a game of blown opportunities. They fell back into a tie with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Dissapointment was in the air. I've decided to take a ride in the old time machine, one year ahead of then, 366 days later, to the same date in 2008. While I was there, I was able to pick up this snippet from the Paper...

Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, 9/29/08

If you went around talking to any of the 44,000+ fans at Citizens Bank Park yesterday, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone with a downbeat attitude. That is, unless they were a Rockies fan.

It was a day of milestone-shattering, cheering, and redemption. The Fightin’s 12-3 victory marks their 5th straight win against the defending World Series champion Rockies, putting the Rockies a game-and-a-half back in the Wild Card race behind the 87-74 Braves. The Braves play a doubleheader today to end the season.

“This is our payback for last year,” said Jimmy Rollins, “They really beat us up last year in the playoffs, and now we’re getting our turn.” Rollins was 3-6 with 2 runs batted in.

The win moves the Phillies up to 93-68, and they will have the best record in the National League in two years, and the second-best record in baseball. Curt Schilling got his 14th win, going 7 strong innings, striking out 5. But, yesterday was a day for the records…


A year ago you wouldn’t find Mariano Rivera and the Phillies in the same sentence. Yesterday, Rivera got his 46th save, breaking Jose Mesa’s team record of 45 set back in 2002.
“This is unbelievable… this city is incredible. I’ve had a lot of great years, but my time here has soared above and beyond my expectations.”


However, the fans were already cheering like crazy for the big man, Ryan Howard. In the Bottom of the 8th Inning, with Mike Cameron on second and Mike Lowell on third, 2 outs, and the count 2-2, Howard hit an opposite field shot off LaTroy Hawkins. Chaos erupted- it was Howard’s 61st homer of the season, passing Babe Ruth and tying Roger Maris for the 7th most home runs in a single season in MLB history, also breaking his club record of 58.

“You grow up hearing all about the Babe, said Howard, “He’s probably the biggest slugger in history. To hit more home runs than he did, well, I can’t describe the feeling.”
If the Phillies win tomorrow, they face the Padres in the first round. If the Rockies win and the Braves lose both games of the doubleheader, the Phillies could face the Rockies instead.
Rollins smiled at the possibility, “Another series with them? Wow, this just gets better and better.”

Saturday, October 13, 2007

More Good News for the Off-Season

Curt Schilling spoke to a Daily News Reporter before last night's ALCS Game 1, about the prospect of returning to the Phillies, saying "Absolutely, they'd be on a short list if it doesn't work out here." The soon-to-be-41 Schilling is looking for a short contract, and that's good as the Phillies would probably prefer a short contract as well. This happening is seeming more and more likely every day.

The even better news comes from team president David Montgomery, who said that the Phillies payroll can rise from the $103 million payroll last season. He was quoted yesterday in the Daily News... here is an excerpt from the article:

Seems like just yesterday that any rumor of an impending sale of the Phillies, bogus or not, would produce smiles, a lot of hope, maybe even a few hallelujahs.

Now I'm not so sure. The fun ballpark and its kind-hearted workers, a gritty, young and talented team that the city has put both arms around, a payroll that is reportedly $40 million more than three of the four teams still playing, a manager players begged to bring back, a general manager that, despite some missteps, made some shrewd midseason deals . . .

Well, don't those mystery men and women who own the Phillies get a little credit for all of this?

"The amazing conversation for me," Dave Montgomery was saying yesterday, "is when fans would say, 'If only you people cared as much about this team as we do.'

"I mean, are you kidding me?"

Montgomery said the other day the team's payroll hit $103 million last season, and that it can go up next season. "We got to the new ballpark, we said we would act differently," Montgomery said. "These people haven't taken a dime out of this club. They just want to win."

Hold your snickers. He's not contesting that the value of the franchise has risen. He's saying the ownership group he represents does not pocket the profits made when 3.1 million of you went through the turnstiles this season, or paid for your dogs and beer.

The Phillies have spent - Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Jim Thome, David Bell are just a few of the bigger checks. You can kill them for being stupid with that money - Lord knows, I have - but the larger-market successes, and even some smaller ones, have skeletons in their closets, too. Ask the Diamondbacks if Randy Johnson's season was any more productive than Garcia's.

Wouldn't you have liked to be sitting next to George Steinbrenner when Roger Clemens - whom he paid $28 million for two-thirds of a season - came out after 2 1/3 innings in the ALDS?

"You know what they did this year that they haven't in the past?" John Kruk said on the brink of the playoffs last week. "Chase Utley went down, they went out and got Iguchi. When those pitchers got hurt, they went and traded for Kyle Lohse and took on his contract. The free agents they signed - if they had a younger guy who was better, he played [Carlos Ruiz].

"Pat Gillick threw his ego aside and said play the best guys. I'm telling you, there are a lot of GMs out there who wouldn't do that, because they can't admit when they are wrong."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/10497822.html


It seems as if the Phillies have learned their lesson. They're not looking for a long contract for a star player (avoiding the problems with Philly stars who have long contracts... Thome, Lindros, etc.). However, they should be careful who they bring to the team- if Rivera or Schilling came and had an ego problem, the team chemistry could go down the drain.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Will There be Fightin' for a Championship in '08?

The Phillies offered a rather disappointing end to their 2007 season, being swiftly swept by the Rockies in the NLDS. They were a young team that wasn’t really prepared to play in the postseason, plagued by their generally inconsistent play and lackluster pitching staff. They rode an impressive streak into the postseason, but still have many problematic shortcomings that need to be fixed.

The common philosophy when your season ends is “There’s always next year.” A lot of teams in professional sports, however, especially after making a long run towards a championship, are often plagued by one main problem in the off-season: keeping their strong team together. They have trouble re-signing their key players, as their value has gone up. Also, the egos of players on the team can over inflate (T.O. cough cough), hurting team chemistry. In football, the dreaded “Super Bowl Curse” plagues the teams who were in the super bowl (more commonly the losers, who almost always fall victim to the curse), as next season they play terribly for these reasons. This goes for all team sports, including baseball.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the Fightin’s won’t fall apart; in fact, next year they will be better than ever.

The Phillies have already committed more than $64 million dollars for the contracts of the following players in 2008:

Pat Burrell ($14 million)
Brett Myers ($8.5 million)
Jimmy Rollins ($8 million)
Adam Eaton ($7.635 million)
Chase Utley ($7.5 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Tom Gordon ($5.5 million)
Wes Helms ($2.15 million)
Jim Thome ($5.5 million- Thome is currently playing for the White Sox


To put it in perspective, their team salary has generally been about $95 million for the past few years. Burrell, Rollins, and Utley are without a doubt going to be starting next year. Moyer will likely be in the starting rotation, while they may try to trade Eaton, who struggled this season.
Eligible for arbitration next year are Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth, Geoff Geary, Julio Mateo, and Kane Davis. Howard made $900,000 last year as part of a one-year deal signed on March 3rd. Essentially the way arbitration works is the player will come up with a salary for next year, and the Phillies will come up with one. A neutral arbitrator chooses the most reasonable between the two, using the player’s stats. The teams can also sign the contract just by negotiating if they come to an agreement. A player of Howard’s caliber would surely get more than $5 million dollars (Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million last year), because the Phillies would be insane to go any lower, which would practically be just taking Howard . My guess is that he gets $6.5 million (per year, as are all the values unless otherwise mentioned). I’d offer a guess the other players end up being about $7.5 million combined. So, that brings my estimate to $78.5 million.

Next up are Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Coste, who should all be signed for a small amount, totaling maybe $3 Million. Also, the Phillies spent $800,000 buying out the contracts of Abraham Nunez and Rod Barajas on Thursday. That brings the estimate to $82.5 million.

Now for the possible Free Agents. Let’s assume the Phillies have about $15 million to spend.
We’ll start in the field, and first comes the big question mark of Aaron Rowand. He has been a team leader and fan favorite, but recent trade talks suggest he won’t be back. Rowand asked today for $84 million over 6 years, while the Phillies want a shorter, less-per-year contract. Maybe they are learning I suppose from the Jim Thome fiasco, which is still costing them- $5.5 million this year. It seems unlikely that the Phillies will go after Rowand.
That would theoretically leave the Phillies with these main starters:

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs
OF Jayson Werth
OF Shane Victorino
OF Pat Burrell


Now, that’s not a bad lineup at all, but the Phillies might look into a Free Agent 3rd Baseman or Outfielder. Doing this would be good, especially getting an outfielder, because an injury could put a big hole in the lineup. The only realistic long-term backup in the outfield would be Michael Bourn or Greg Dobbs. It’s too soon to guess what the Phillies will do, given the Aaron Rowand situation, but I would sign another outfielder if Rowand went, one in the $3-6 million dollar range. There are many possible candidates. Maybe Barry Bonds… just kidding.
Iguchi probably won’t be re-signed, as they have Utley.

Next comes starting pitching. Expect Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, whose contracts totaled $17.5 million this year, to not be resigned. MLB.com reports that the Phillies may end up bring up righty Kyle Drabeck, their 2006 first-round pick, who is currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He went 5-1 for the Lakewood Blue Claws, and may be ready before the all-star break. If there’s a weak link in the rotation, he will probably find his way in there.

That leaves the Phillies with Eaton, Kendrick, Hamels, Durbin, and Moyer in terms of starters. These four were all on the rotation at the end of the regular season. The other was Kyle Lohse, who is eligible for free agency. After Lohse’s strong run for the Phillies this year, he might ask for a lot. A lot of teams would be interested in him, but I see the Phillies going after him, adding I’m going to guess $6.5 million to the payroll. If Lohse wasn’t re-signed, the Phillies would probably sign another of the skilled reliever Free Agents.

It should be noted that Curt Schilling has been reported by Randy Miller of the Courier Times (who has a source inside the team) as being looked into by the Phillies. It is likely that he will end up leaving Boston, and he recently decided to settle down in southern New Jersey, making the Phillies a likely first-choice for him. They may end up signing him, but probably only if the front office raises the payroll, or Lohse isn’t re-signed.

Finally, the bullpen, the part of the team that needs the most improvement. Pat Gillick said that Brett Myers should remain as the closer, unless the Phillies end up somehow not resigning Lohse, and not getting another starter, in which case Myers would probably move into the starting rotation.

However, the Phillies have been reported by Miller as looking into another player in addition to Schilling- Mariano Rivera, who may become a free agent if the Yankees don’t exercise his $21 million dollar option. He would probably cost about $13 million, but his signing would mean Myers would return to the starting rotation, saving the Phillies money they may have had to spend on Lohse, Schilling, or another starting pitcher. Of course, their are no guarantees on how effective Myers will be as a starter after closing most of last year.

I could see J.D. Durbin possibly turning into a middle reliever if Eaton takes the fifth spot on the rotation, or if Schilling or Rivera are signed. The Free Agents are Mesa, Alfonseca, and Romero (Julio Santana was released). The Phillies want Romero back, and Romero wants to come back, so he will probably be re-signed for a few (I’ll guess 3) million. Mesa and Alfonseca should be released.

The Phillies could really round out a powerful roster with more relief pitching. There are too many candidates to name right now, but I have confidence Pat Gillick will come through here, whether or not he signs Rivera or Schilling.

Especially if Rowand goes, the Phillies could really use another seasoned veteran. As Gillick goes searching this off-season, he should, and likely will keep this in mind.
If things go well this off-season, our pitching problem should be completely solved, and the offense should be just as strong as last year.

One of the keys here is if the front office is willing to raise the payroll. With a higher payroll, the Phillies will surely be able to strengthen the bullpen. It’s likely that they will do so, as a strong team will attract a lot of fans to Citizens Bank Park- just look at the last couple weeks of the 2007 season. Who knows, maybe the front office will be generous enough that we can keep Rowand, sign Curt Schilling, Rivera, and another reliever. The front offices’ decision will have a huge effect on championship aspirations for next year.

If Pat Gillick continues the good work, making the right moves, and the front office sees the championship opportunity, the Phillies should be not only just as good next year, but likely much better. I can see it now: Citizens Bank Park twice as full as last year, a powerful pitching rotation without Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin, Mariano Rivera closing, and the Phillies becoming the best team in the National League. Should the front office see this opportunity, this is a whole lot more than wishful thinking.