Will There be Fightin' for a Championship in '08?

The Phillies offered a rather disappointing end to their 2007 season, being swiftly swept by the Rockies in the NLDS. They were a young team that wasn’t really prepared to play in the postseason, plagued by their generally inconsistent play and lackluster pitching staff. They rode an impressive streak into the postseason, but still have many problematic shortcomings that need to be fixed.

The common philosophy when your season ends is “There’s always next year.” A lot of teams in professional sports, however, especially after making a long run towards a championship, are often plagued by one main problem in the off-season: keeping their strong team together. They have trouble re-signing their key players, as their value has gone up. Also, the egos of players on the team can over inflate (T.O. cough cough), hurting team chemistry. In football, the dreaded “Super Bowl Curse” plagues the teams who were in the super bowl (more commonly the losers, who almost always fall victim to the curse), as next season they play terribly for these reasons. This goes for all team sports, including baseball.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the Fightin’s won’t fall apart; in fact, next year they will be better than ever.

The Phillies have already committed more than $64 million dollars for the contracts of the following players in 2008:

Pat Burrell ($14 million)
Brett Myers ($8.5 million)
Jimmy Rollins ($8 million)
Adam Eaton ($7.635 million)
Chase Utley ($7.5 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Tom Gordon ($5.5 million)
Wes Helms ($2.15 million)
Jim Thome ($5.5 million- Thome is currently playing for the White Sox


To put it in perspective, their team salary has generally been about $95 million for the past few years. Burrell, Rollins, and Utley are without a doubt going to be starting next year. Moyer will likely be in the starting rotation, while they may try to trade Eaton, who struggled this season.
Eligible for arbitration next year are Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Jayson Werth, Geoff Geary, Julio Mateo, and Kane Davis. Howard made $900,000 last year as part of a one-year deal signed on March 3rd. Essentially the way arbitration works is the player will come up with a salary for next year, and the Phillies will come up with one. A neutral arbitrator chooses the most reasonable between the two, using the player’s stats. The teams can also sign the contract just by negotiating if they come to an agreement. A player of Howard’s caliber would surely get more than $5 million dollars (Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million last year), because the Phillies would be insane to go any lower, which would practically be just taking Howard . My guess is that he gets $6.5 million (per year, as are all the values unless otherwise mentioned). I’d offer a guess the other players end up being about $7.5 million combined. So, that brings my estimate to $78.5 million.

Next up are Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Coste, who should all be signed for a small amount, totaling maybe $3 Million. Also, the Phillies spent $800,000 buying out the contracts of Abraham Nunez and Rod Barajas on Thursday. That brings the estimate to $82.5 million.

Now for the possible Free Agents. Let’s assume the Phillies have about $15 million to spend.
We’ll start in the field, and first comes the big question mark of Aaron Rowand. He has been a team leader and fan favorite, but recent trade talks suggest he won’t be back. Rowand asked today for $84 million over 6 years, while the Phillies want a shorter, less-per-year contract. Maybe they are learning I suppose from the Jim Thome fiasco, which is still costing them- $5.5 million this year. It seems unlikely that the Phillies will go after Rowand.
That would theoretically leave the Phillies with these main starters:

C Carlos Ruiz
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms or Greg Dobbs
OF Jayson Werth
OF Shane Victorino
OF Pat Burrell


Now, that’s not a bad lineup at all, but the Phillies might look into a Free Agent 3rd Baseman or Outfielder. Doing this would be good, especially getting an outfielder, because an injury could put a big hole in the lineup. The only realistic long-term backup in the outfield would be Michael Bourn or Greg Dobbs. It’s too soon to guess what the Phillies will do, given the Aaron Rowand situation, but I would sign another outfielder if Rowand went, one in the $3-6 million dollar range. There are many possible candidates. Maybe Barry Bonds… just kidding.
Iguchi probably won’t be re-signed, as they have Utley.

Next comes starting pitching. Expect Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, whose contracts totaled $17.5 million this year, to not be resigned. MLB.com reports that the Phillies may end up bring up righty Kyle Drabeck, their 2006 first-round pick, who is currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He went 5-1 for the Lakewood Blue Claws, and may be ready before the all-star break. If there’s a weak link in the rotation, he will probably find his way in there.

That leaves the Phillies with Eaton, Kendrick, Hamels, Durbin, and Moyer in terms of starters. These four were all on the rotation at the end of the regular season. The other was Kyle Lohse, who is eligible for free agency. After Lohse’s strong run for the Phillies this year, he might ask for a lot. A lot of teams would be interested in him, but I see the Phillies going after him, adding I’m going to guess $6.5 million to the payroll. If Lohse wasn’t re-signed, the Phillies would probably sign another of the skilled reliever Free Agents.

It should be noted that Curt Schilling has been reported by Randy Miller of the Courier Times (who has a source inside the team) as being looked into by the Phillies. It is likely that he will end up leaving Boston, and he recently decided to settle down in southern New Jersey, making the Phillies a likely first-choice for him. They may end up signing him, but probably only if the front office raises the payroll, or Lohse isn’t re-signed.

Finally, the bullpen, the part of the team that needs the most improvement. Pat Gillick said that Brett Myers should remain as the closer, unless the Phillies end up somehow not resigning Lohse, and not getting another starter, in which case Myers would probably move into the starting rotation.

However, the Phillies have been reported by Miller as looking into another player in addition to Schilling- Mariano Rivera, who may become a free agent if the Yankees don’t exercise his $21 million dollar option. He would probably cost about $13 million, but his signing would mean Myers would return to the starting rotation, saving the Phillies money they may have had to spend on Lohse, Schilling, or another starting pitcher. Of course, their are no guarantees on how effective Myers will be as a starter after closing most of last year.

I could see J.D. Durbin possibly turning into a middle reliever if Eaton takes the fifth spot on the rotation, or if Schilling or Rivera are signed. The Free Agents are Mesa, Alfonseca, and Romero (Julio Santana was released). The Phillies want Romero back, and Romero wants to come back, so he will probably be re-signed for a few (I’ll guess 3) million. Mesa and Alfonseca should be released.

The Phillies could really round out a powerful roster with more relief pitching. There are too many candidates to name right now, but I have confidence Pat Gillick will come through here, whether or not he signs Rivera or Schilling.

Especially if Rowand goes, the Phillies could really use another seasoned veteran. As Gillick goes searching this off-season, he should, and likely will keep this in mind.
If things go well this off-season, our pitching problem should be completely solved, and the offense should be just as strong as last year.

One of the keys here is if the front office is willing to raise the payroll. With a higher payroll, the Phillies will surely be able to strengthen the bullpen. It’s likely that they will do so, as a strong team will attract a lot of fans to Citizens Bank Park- just look at the last couple weeks of the 2007 season. Who knows, maybe the front office will be generous enough that we can keep Rowand, sign Curt Schilling, Rivera, and another reliever. The front offices’ decision will have a huge effect on championship aspirations for next year.

If Pat Gillick continues the good work, making the right moves, and the front office sees the championship opportunity, the Phillies should be not only just as good next year, but likely much better. I can see it now: Citizens Bank Park twice as full as last year, a powerful pitching rotation without Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin, Mariano Rivera closing, and the Phillies becoming the best team in the National League. Should the front office see this opportunity, this is a whole lot more than wishful thinking.