Outlook Thus Far

The first few weeks of the 2008 season haven't been kind to many top contenders. Many teams that were labeled as early front-runners in their divisions, or even early world series favorites, have struggled to get above, or sometimes even reach, the .500 mark. What's even more unusual is the good starts for some American League teams who were thought to be the worst in baseball (such as the Athletics and Orioles). We're over three weeks in, and if the playoffs were to start today, we'd have the Athletics, White Sox, and Marlins in!


The Phillies have had a mediocre start at best. They already weren't playing that well when Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins went down. The short-term loss of these two key players has left the Phillies without a natural leadoff man, somebody who has a history of running well and maintaining a healthy batting average. They've tried a bunch of new, odd lead-off men; late-inning defensive replacements Eric Bruntlett and So Taguchi, as well has middle-lineup outfielders Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth. What the Phillies are left with is a power-hitting lineup that has trouble (even more so than before) putting runners on base, resulting in a lot of home runs, but not a whole lot of runs.



The pitching has also been topsy-turvy thus far. Cole Hamels has pitched well in all four of his starts. Brett Myers needed some time to find a groove, as he's still adjusting after closing for a season. Adam Eaton has pitched surprisingly well thus far, while Jamie Moyer looks like he might be aging (surprise!) a bit too fast. Whether Kyle Kendrick will be able to return to his stellar form of 2007 is yet to be seen. The bullpen has met a problem similar to last year: inconsistency. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge haven't allowed an earned run yet, but beyond that, the relief pitching has been par at best.



In my mind the keys for the Phillies in 2008 will be staying healthy (last year almost every member of the entire starting lineup was injured at one point or another), and maintaining consistency. This team is loaded with talented players, but they continue to be plagued by the fact that half of them seem to be struggling or sidelined on any given day. For instance, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley have been on a tear, while Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino (prior to his injury) haven't been doing so hot. As the pennant race heats up, it's going to be imperative that the men in the starting rotation have settled into their roles, and can give consistent performances night in and night out. The bullpen, as it did in September of last year, will have to be made up of at least a few arms who can shut down opposing batters in the final three innings, and hold on to leads in critical games. Finally, the Phils have to get comfortable at the plate. You can't win a title if you constantly have two or three of your best players in a slump.

One thing that worries me is how proactive Pat Gillick will be when it comes to making necessary mid-season moves. It often seems as if Gillick is just riding out his final year with the team, waiting for retirement. Gillick passed up an opportunity to get a bargain deal on Kyle Lohse, a solid arm who could have helped to anchor down the shaky starting rotation. The $4 million or so that Lohse wanted was quite low given the typical baseball salaries these days, especially considering that he wanted 4 years and $30 million earlier, and was now willing to take a petty one year pack. Gillick did a good job when he picked up Lohse last year at the trade deadline, and that move probably made the difference in the NL East race. Gillick needs to continue to make smart moves such as the Lohse deal, capitalizing on opportunities when they come.