The Closer in '08: Brett Myers?

Constantly the Phillies have said that Myers will be the closer in 2008, but this happening has never been taken as any sort of near certainty. We all know that there are plenty of Free Agent closers out there, and that there is also a need for Myers in the starting rotation. The fact is, we don’t know where Myers will be at his strongest. He could remain the closer, and the Phillies could spend their money elsewhere. Myers may even evolve into one of the best closers in baseball if we’re lucky. We could also move him back to the rotation and sign a new closer. Or, he could become a middle or long reliever.

His stats don’t give us that good of an idea of where he’s strongest:

• In Brett Myers' career as a starter (2002-2006, 1st 3 games of 2007), he has put up these stats: 143 Games, 54-41, 868.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 306 BB, 708 SO, .329 OBP
• In 2006 specifically, Myers put up these stats: 31 Games, 12-7, 198.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 189 SO, OBA .257
• Myers began the 2007 season 0-2, allowing 16 runs in 15.1 innings of work over 3 starts.
• On April 18th, due to Myers’ struggles, he was moved to the bullpen. He made his first start as a Middle Reliever/Set-Up Man. Over his 8 games (between 4/18 and 5/1) in this role, he put up impressive stats:
  0-0, 8.1 IP, 1 Run, 13 SO, 3 BB, OBA .324
• On May 3rd, with closer Tom Gordon injured, Myers took over the closer role. He was out of the lineup
  due to injury from 5/23-7/28. He did okay (especially for a new closer) before the injury. After the injury shared he sometimes shared the closing role with Tom Gordon, and he had some rough games in his first couple weeks back, but settled down after that. Along with the rest of the team, he played well down the stretch. From May 3rd until the end of the regular season, Myers put up these stats: 5-5, 40 Games, 21/24 Saves, 45.0 IP, 16 Runs, 14 BB, 51 SO, 3.20 ERA, .210 OBA.
  

Myers has done slightly better out of the bullpen, which is why the Phillies want to keep him there. He’s a big guy that is developing a good fastball that would tire him out as a starter.
Right now, the Phillies have two holes in their starting rotation: the empty spot left by new free-agent Kyle Lohse, and Adam Eaton (I am not even kidding here). Now, the Phillies have prospects that could fill in one of the spots, and there’s always Adam Eaton or J.D. Durbin. The Phillies are also going to look for starters.

Now, assuming that Pat Gillick is half as smart as I think he is, he will be able to adequately complete the starting rotation with or without Myers. So, Myers will probably only be removed as a closer if a better (or much better, depending on willing the Phillies are to move Myers) replacement is found. Many closers can also make good middle relievers- and it's often easy to tell which ones can- meaning the Phillies have some flexibility.


And for your reading pleasure, I conjured up a list of 5 candidates that could possibly replace Myers as the closer…

Eric Gagne: He had a tough run with Boston, but that doesn’t reflect on his skill as a closer: He was the 2003 Cy Young winner. After injury plagued 2005 and 2006 seasons, he played well in 2007 as the Rangers’ closer, but was traded to the Red Sox. In Boston, playing as a middle-reliever rather than a closer, he imploded, having a 6.75 ERA over 20 Games. The likely explanation is that Gagne specializes in closing, and can’t be an effective middle-reliever.

If would be a huge risk signing Gagne. It’s possible that his implosion hurt his skill as a closer- for this reason his market value has dropped from his $6,000,000 2007 salary. If he turns out to close like he did before his implosion, he would be a huge acquisition, and the Phillies would get a lot of bang for their buck. It’s also possible he would be another Freddy Garcia.

It’s not certain whether Pat Gillick will even look into Gagne. Gagne many not be the kind of player the Phillies would want to sign to take over for Myers. However, I think Gagne should definitely be looked into. Right now, according to the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have a mutual interest in him, so he may be gone before the Phillies really get a chance to consider him.

Troy Percival: Having just come out of three injury-plagued season, and retirement, the Phillies probably won’t go for Percival. However, while he’s a risk similar to Gagne, Percival came out of retirement and played his first MLB game back on June 29th, yet still managed to post a 1.80 ERA in 40.0 IP over 34 games in 2007. Not too shabby…

Mariano Rivera: Things have changed a lot here. It was thought by many (including me) that Rivera might leave the Yankees if Torre left. However, Rivera has applauded the hiring of Joe Girardi, and is saying he wants to retire in pinstripes. Also, the Yankees are planning to move Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, meaning they will probably re-sign Rivera. It doesn’t look like Rivera will really be testing the market, although it’s still possible. If he did, the Phillies would likely make him an offer.

Francisco Cordero: Closer for the Brewers in 2006. He was 2.98 ERA, 44/51 saves in 2007, similar to previous years. He’s been talked about by many in the media as a possible closer. He’s had some rough spots in the past few years, though.

Bob Wickman: Wickman is unlikely to re-sign with Arizona, his team at the end of 2007. He has had a lot of good and bad seasons, and has a lot of experience as a closer. His ERA has been around 3.5 recently, and he dropped his ERA a lot over the last two months of the 2007 season. He could play a role similar to Tom Gordon, as a set-up man, or replace Myers as closer, giving the Phillies options. He would probably be a better closer than Gordon, though. I’m not sure if the Phillies think he’s a good enough closer to be signed to replace Myers. However, everybody loves a 240 pound meatballing reliever…


My Choice: Gagne- If we can get him for a good price, we should take him. If he ends up pulling a Freddy Garcia, we can move Myers back and put someone new in the rotation. I think there's a better chance Gagne ends up having his old stuff, in which case we score big.

Probable Phillies' Choice: Nobody- The Phillies are to weary of their (and other Philly teams') past when it comes to big-name acquisitions to take a risk on any of these 5 hit-or-miss guys, or anybody other than Myers. They'll go for a couple starters, most likely Lohse and Schilling, although anybody could end up being signed.