Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Could an Injury Cripple the Phillies in 2008?

Here's the injury scenarios for position players:

  • Ryan Howard: Greg Dobbs would likely become the everyday 1st Baseman, leaving Wes Helms to play Third Base. Helms and Pete LaForest can also play 1st Base.
  • Chase Utley: Eric Bruntlett would become the everyday 2nd Baseman.
  • Jimmy Rollins: Bruntlett would become the everyday Shortstop.
  • Wes Helms: Greg Dobbs would become the sole starting Third Baseman.
  • Greg Dobbs: Helms would play Third, but since Dobbs can play a lot of positions, the Phillies would have a bit of a depth problem if another starter went down.
  • Pat Burrell: Jayson Werth moves to left, Shane Victorino to Center, and Chris Roberson plays right. It should be noted that Greg Dobbs can play Left Field.
  • Shane Victorino: Jayson Werth plays center, Roberson plays right, and Burrell plays left.
  • Jayson Werth: Roberson would become the everyday Right Fielder. Dobbs is also availalble.
  • Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, or Pete LaForest: If one of these guys go down, there are two of them left. However, if Ruiz went down for an extended period of time, the Phillies might search for a better catcher to be the everyday starter.
  • Chris Roberson or Eric Bruntlett: Both these guys are currently the only backups at two vital positions (LF/RF for Roberson, 2nd/SS for Bruntlett). Multiple backups may be needed to replace either of these guys, which could hurt the roster. It's anyone's guess who that would be. One possibility for outfield is T.J. Bohn, who was on the 40-man roster in 2007 but never played for the Phillies.

Now for the key pitchers. It should be noted that since the pitching rotation is unclear beyond Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, and probably Brett Myers, I am going to assume that a fifth starter will come around, be it most likely a Free Agent, or maybe Adam Eaton, J.D. Durbin, or a Prospect. I am going to call them "Pitcher X".

  • Cole Hamels: The unusual amount of pitching injuries and other big changes last year required major changes in the rotation. The only pitcher that would be alarming (in my mind) to lose is Cole Hamels. If he goes down for an extended period of time, the Phillies may try to trade for a pitcher (like they did with Lohse last year), or they might use Adam Eaton (if he hasn't been traded), J.D. Durbin, or a minor-league prospect (they got lucky last year in this exact situation with Kendrick. Some possible prospects are Josh Outman, J.A. Happ, John Ennis.
  • Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, or "Pitcher X": The same goes here as for Hamels, except it's less likely the Phillies will go outside the organization for a replacement.
  • Tom Gordon or J.C. Romero: While we aren't sure what the 2008 bullpen will look like, we can assume the loss of either of these guys would be pretty substantial. No special changes would really need to be made, but the Phillies may try to obtain an additional reliever from outside the organization. If the Phillies find themselves with six really able-bodied starters, Brett Myers may move back to the pen- but this could happen even if an injury didn't occur.
  • Brad Lidge: Romero and/or Gordon would probably take on the closing role, and the same thing may happen here with Myers as mentioned above.

Now, there's always the possibility of a doomsday scenario, where multiple (2, 3 or even more!)players go down, but that hasn't happened since 2007- Oh wait, that was last year, wasn't it? Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley- all of them vital (or at least expected to be vital) players on the team- went down for a while.

The losses of just a couple of these players would have been disasterous, let alone all eight of them over the course of the season, let alone for a team that's season was down the drain, let alone for the Phillies, and yet somehow a bunch of virtual nobodies- Geoff Geary, Kyle Kendrick, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, Jayson Werth- came on and did a spectacular job, leaving the virtually injury-free (who's that Freddy Garcia Guy?) Phillies poised to make a September run, one that ended up pulling them to the playoffs.

Final Analysis: The only thing to be worried about is making sure that our bullpen doesn't look like it's reeling from injuries when there actually aren't any injuries, which is the case right now. The Phillies' proved in 2007 that their organization has depth far beyond the 25-man roster they started with.

If I had told you that the Phillies would make the playoffs in 2007, you would have laughed at me. If I had told you Freddy Garcia and Jon Liber would implode and get injured, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino would be out for weeks, Cole Hamels replaced buy some AA guy, and Brett Myers would go 0-3 and get exiled to the bullpen, and told you the Phillies would still make the playoffs, you would have committed me to an insane asylum.

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